Pitcher Advanced Metrics Studs and Duds - Zone Swing & Miss % For Week 14

Connelly examines fantasy baseball pitcher risers and fallers, whose zone swing & miss % could make them adds, drops, or trade targets for Week 14.

Welcome back to RotoBaller’s Statcast pitcher Studs and Duds article series! Each week, I will select one advanced metric, choose two pitchers with strong values and two with poor values, and analyze what those values may mean for future performance. There are plenty of metrics to consider for the final full week before the All-Star break, and I am going to pick zone swing & miss %.

Zone swing & miss % is an interesting metric in that it lends insight into how "overpowering" a pitcher's stuff is. Of course, getting hitters to chase out of the zone is an important skill, but being able to overpower hitters in the zone is a positive base metric for starters to build upon. Being able to do so ensures that pitchers can attack hitters without fear of allowing damaging contact, and the more strikeouts the better for fantasy purposes.

This will be the final metric-specific article for the first half of this series. I will provide an article series first-half recap leading into the All-Star break and then will provide a second-half Pitcher Studs and Duds preview the following week. Hopefully, readers will find this approach helpful as they assess their team's needs for the second half of the fantasy season!

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Zone Swing & Miss % Studs for Fantasy Baseball

All stats are current as of Sunday morning, July 10, 2022.

Dylan Cease, Chicago White Sox
7-4, 2.45 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 34.3% Strikeout Rate, 26.1% Zone Swing & Miss %

Dylan Cease has been a fantasy Stud overall this season and has been a strikeout machine in particular. The 26-year-old is having his best season yet with a 2.45 ERA, a 34.3% strikeout rate, a 16.0% swinging-strike rate, and a 26.1% zone swing & miss % that is the second-best among qualified starters. How has Cease found such strikeout success, and can fantasy managers rely on him to continue his overall success in the second half of the season?

Cease's three-pitch mix of four-seam fastball, slider, and curveball have really overpowered hitters this season. He has gotten great spin and velocity on all three of those pitches and has located those pitches well when in the zone. He has also traded some of his fastball usage for slider usage this season compared to 2021, which can help explain his jump in strikeout metrics. Simply put, Cease's pitch arsenal is one of baseball's deadliest.

Cease has gotten a ton of swings and misses on pitches in the zone, but he has had an issue with throwing pitches in the zone. His 11.1% walk rate and 4.21 BB/9 rate definitely leave something to be desired, and his walk numbers have inflated his 1.23 WHIP. He only throws 44.5% of his pitches in the strike zone, which is one of baseball's worst marks. However, his saving grace is that Cease also has an elite swing & miss rate on pitches thrown outside of the zone at 52.3%.

Cease has been a top-notch fantasy strikeout option this season on pitches in and out of the zone. He has had walk issues, which may negatively impact his strong ERA at some point, but his stuff is so overpowering that he should continue to get excellent overall results despite that. I think Cease will be a starter that will help fantasy managers reach the playoffs this season.

Sean Manaea, San Diego Padres
3-4, 4.18 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 25.1% Strikeout Rate, 21.2% Zone Swing & Miss %

Sean Manaea has been a useful fantasy pitcher in various capacities over the course of his career, but the last two seasons, in particular, have seen his strikeout skills play up. Manaea has had a decent season overall so far, compiling a 4.18 ERA, a respectable 25.1% strikeout rate, and a 21.2% zone swing & miss % that is in the top-10 of qualified starters. Is Manaea a pitcher who fantasy managers can rely on for the second half?

Manaea has some underlying signs that make me question his potential success for the rest of the season. First, Manaea has always been a pitch-to-contact pitcher. He has a career 77.3% contact rate and he has thrown pitches in the zone 52.4% of the time this season. He relies heavily on a sinker with 61.8% usage and has a career 21.6% strikeout rate, so I wouldn't expect him to get many swings and misses or strikeouts in general, particularly on pitches thrown in the strike zone. Further, Manaea's batted-ball profile is concerning given his high contact rate. His average exit velocity and hard-hit rate are in the 21st and 33rd percent of baseball, respectively, and his average launch angle is 16.6 degrees. His 3.93 SIERA doesn't suggest this is anything to worry about, but I have a hard time buying Manae's success given his career profile.

Manaea has been a fantasy contributor this season, especially in the strikeout department. However, I wouldn't bet on him continuing to do so. He has allowed a lot of poor contact and does not have overpowering stuff. I worry that any regression would lead to both a dropoff in strikeouts as well as an overall decrease in Manaea's peripheral stats. I consider him to be a sell-high candidate, given that he is currently rostered in 88 percent of leagues.

Zone Swing & Miss % Duds for Fantasy Baseball

All stats are current as of Sunday morning, July 10, 2022.

Framber Valdez, Houston Astros
8-4, 2.64 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 21.8% Strikeout Rate, 12.1% Zone Swing & Miss %

Framber Valdez has been a strong fantasy asset once again this season, compiling a 2.64 ERA with an average of almost 6.5 IP/GS over 17 starts. His 21.8% strikeout rate is decent, but his 12.1% zone swing & miss % is one of the lowest in baseball. Do fantasy managers have anything to worry about, or can they rely on Valdez for the rest of the season?

Simply put, Valdez's recipe for success relies on contact, so he pitches to contact in the zone. Valdez is a sinker-heavy, groundball pitcher and has a successful batted-ball profile to back it up. Unlike Manaea, Valdez has a -3.7-degree launch angle while pitching in the zone 53.5% of the time. Valdez has never deviated from this approach in his career and has overall been successful, even in fantasy leagues.

Not all pitchers need to rack up strikeouts to be fantasy-relevant, and Valdez is a prime example. He induces weak groundball contact, and manages to produce enough strikeouts and pitches deep into games. Fantasy managers have come to understand what Valdez can and cannot provide fantasy teams, and he has and should continue to deliver on that for the rest of the season.

Patrick Corbin, Washington Nationals
4-11, 5.70 ERA, 1.67 WHIP, 18.8% Strikeout Rate, 13.6% Zone Swing & Miss %

Patrick Cobrin was once a fantasy asset, but the past few seasons have been rough on him. This includes his zone swing & miss % of just 13.6%. His peripheral numbers are rough, but he has strung together some strong starts of late. Given the success he has found at times in his career and his success of late, is he a deceptive fantasy option?

The culprit behind Corbin's low strikeout rate and swings-and-misses could be the decreased success of his slider. Corbin's slider has historically been a fantastic swing-and-miss pitch with a career swinging-strike rate of 24.1%. His current usage of the slider at 33% is the lowest it has been since 2017, and his current swinging-strike rate of 17.7% is still good but is a career-low. His improved performance since June hasn't seen an accompanying increase in strikeouts or swings-and-misses, but it has seen an overall increase in the use of his slider. It may be an oversimplification to say that Corbin will be a better version of himself if he uses his slider more, but it is his best pitch.

Corbin has been a solid fantasy contributor at points in his career, but the past few seasons have been anything but. He hasn't missed many bats this season and still hasn't during his improved stretch, but he has relied more on his best pitch. All players will have relative ups and downs over the course of a season, but the true difficulty is trying to determine what a player's baseline is. I think Corbin's downside is still too high to make his relative upside worth it at this time, even for fantasy managers looking for some rotation help.

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