NFBC Points League Primer for Fantasy Baseball Drafts

March 25, 2022

Antonio Losada looks at fantasy baseball points leagues draft sleepers, busts and strategies for NFBC points leagues. These are players to target and avoid.

Points-league players are often overlooked in the fantasy baseball draft world. Rankings for roto leagues do not match up and one-size-fits-all points rankings aren't much better since every site has unique scoring settings.

So here I am, taking the baton from Nicklaus Gaut and advancing toward new horizons. And those horizons, today, go by the name of NFBC.

In the fantastic world of NFBC (BestBall) Points Baseball, you must know one and only one thing: this thing is hella weird (keep reading).

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NFBC H2H Points Standard League Overview

League Size: 10 teams per league in the Best Ball Cutline Championship

Hitting Roster: C, C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, CI, MI, OF, OF, OF, OF, OF, UT

Pitching Roster: Nine Pitchers, open designation

Bench: 19 players, no restrictions

Standard Scoring:

Hitter Scoring Notes

• See. There are the classic formats (ESPN, CBS, Fantrax), the more real-life-based formats (Yahoo, Fangraphs), and then there is another one going on all its own: NFBC scoring. Just peep at the table above for a quick sample and try not to break your brain.
• Nothing, and by nothing I mean nothing, is even remotely comparable between NFBC and the rest of the scoring systems. Just for starters, all of ESPN/CBS/Yahoo/Fantrax give or take fantasy points in nine cats... while NFBC does so in just six!
• First of all, players are given a per-at-bat penalty worth a full point (-1) over the year. That's weird, but that's fun also and gives a little edge to players with a good eye or HBP-geared skills (they'll have lower ABs than PAs). The difference could probably be neglected, though, as we're talking one point for each of the BB and HBP cats, so it'd just amount to a bonus +0.5 each.
• The main thing to keep in mind when it comes to NFBC's system is that all non-HR XBH are valued equally. That's probably something kind of stupid, but it is how things work around these places. And then, of course, HR are just a monster of a thing in NFBC on top of everything, with a +6 bonus per and a +4 extra FP for the mere fact that they count for the H category too!
• Triples are a scarce thing in real life, and while doubles are way more frequent, it's not that there are that many above HR. What I'm saying is that you can pretty much focus on HR and let hits fall for themselves wherever they may. Power is king in NFBC leagues.
• On the other hand, steals are meh while there are no negatives in terms of striking out. That's great! Not so good, though, is the fact that walks count for nothing. So, yeah, NFBC is definitely not made to chase good-eye hitters, but just power bulldozers.

If anything is important in point leagues, well, that's not the name of the player but rather his game and how it translates to the scoring system in place. Speedsters in a format that just awards one point per base stolen? Not great. Same player on a 2+ point-per-steal? Fantastic value. And so on.

As I said in the last bullet-point above, NFBC puts a premium on supreme power hitters and suppresses the impact of K (for the bad) and BB (for the good). That's why looking at the latest ATC projections at the time of this writing, I found out about the following nugget:

• Top-36 projected hitters in NFBC scoring format: average 133+ K.
• Top-36 projected hitters in ESPN scoring format: average 117+ K.

You want those tasty homers, folks. Don't overthink it. And of course, ditch stolen bases most of the time unless you just run out of other more viable options. Just look at points awarded by the H/HR cats and you'd see why I say that: 1 H alone is worth 4 SB, and if that hit goes past the fences, we're talking a HR being worth 10 (!) SB. In other words, four homers make up (probably even beat) for the best base stealer in the game. LOL.

Pitcher Scoring Notes

• If you thought hitters had it weird, then wait for the pitchers' side of things over NFBC contests.
• Saves are worth more fantasy points (+8) than Wins (+6), same as in ESPN but no other platform.
• Of course, NFBC had to be different at something, though. That something: no points subtracted from Losses, as is the case also in Yahoo.
• Nothing very special about the rest of the pitcher events, though, as ER/HA/BB/K are all reasonably average while NFBC hands no bonus points for QS.

Hitting Strategy for NFBC H2H Point Leagues

It's all about hunting bargains by taking advantage of your competition improperly valuing players. Given the uniqueness of NFBC when it comes to fantasy points per appearance/hits, it's worth double-checking those cats when entering the draft room. Don't get mad at that full-point (-1) per-at-bat penalty. Most players with 100+ AB over a year get 100+ hits too, so things get balanced over the full campaign--and that's not even taking into consideration the fact that all hits are valued equally (+4) unless they go the distance (+6 per HR).

That said, the AB penalty benefits good OBP players as they won't log AB every single time they get a PA (HBP and BB don't add to the at-bat count). Just a little detail that some fantasy GMs overlook, believe it or not. Strikeouts are neglected by NFCB so that's another positive to chase those big-power hitters out there, given that there are not three-true-outcomes in place in this format. It's called Gallos Galore.

Let's take a look at some potential bargains and busts for NFBC considering how the platform is structured in terms of points awarded and subtracted at each category, so things get a bit easier to understand.

Hitters Boosted and Penalized in NFBC H2H Point Leagues

NFBC Boosted Hitters

Tyler O'Neill, STL, OF

I know for a fact that my man Nicklaus G hates O'Neill. At least he does, as you should, in formats such as that used in ESPN. But in NFBC contests? Ty-O is gold. O'Neill has the biggest boost in the platform, ranking 34 positions above other-platform-average ranks, and is projected to a top-45 finish among field players compared to his average 70+ rank in all platforms combined.

That's mostly because though O'Neill has a monster K projection of 168, he also comes with 127 good-not-great H tally to go with 31 HR that put him on a top-tier and select club for just 32 hitters (as always, ADP <200). The R/RBI projection of 81/83 is also fantastic and more than makes up for the "low" 13 SB projection. Another interesting nugget buried into TO'N projection: low AB (495) that doesn't hugely penalize him to go with an impressive .823 OPS and above-average .324 OBP.

Javier Báez, DET, SS

I could have picked Brendan Rodgers, as both Rodgers and the Tiger come with a 31 rank-boost in NFBC compared to other platforms. Javi comes with a ridiculous but very real projection of 27 BB to 176 K (!!!) though he also boasts a legit seven HBP + 16 SB. Those latter two numbers are only in seven other players' projected lines by ATC, so that's no joke. Now, what truly matters here is the fact that 1) K don't penalize NFBC hitters, 2) BB count for nothing, 3) Javi could easily hit 25+ HR (projected to 27), and 4) Báez also has a mighty 80/83 R/RBI projection that only 19 other players are projected to. You won't get any sort of benefit in terms of his AB-to-PA ratio because Javi can't walk to save his life, but other than that, he's a bona fide target for those of you managing in NFBC.

Franmil Reyes, CLE, DH

I love me some Franimal "La Mole" Reyes no matter the format I'm playing in, but man, this NFBC place surely boosts his abilities a ton. Reyes' bonkers 35-HR projection is the 12th-largest among hitters with an ADP inside the first 200 picks. That's good and it's even better when considering only half of those players are projected by ATC to reach that mark in 527 or fewer AB, thus softening the per-at-bat -1 FP penalty. Of course, don't expect SB from Franmil, but safely bank on him to reach some sort of 75/95 on the R/RBI front easily as soon as he can log those 525+ ABs staying on the field for close to the full campaign.

NFBC Penalized Hitters

Myles Straw, CLE, OF

Myles is the poster boy of what not to chase in NFBC contests. There are tons of reasons for it, and one of them is not to fall for the high SB (projected to 31) because they are bulky but worth just a +1 FP in the platform. The +31 FP are good, but they mean nothing compared to what other players with fewer thefts but better hitting will accomplish on the diamond. In fact, Straw's projection basically tanks every single stat heavily correlated with FP in NFBC contests: RBI/R/SLG/OPS/HR.

I'm saying that precisely because Straw projects to a low 503 AB (good because he won't get too penalized there) and a viable 133 H... but a putrid four HR over the full season. That simply sucks and it doesn't help his laughable RBI projection of 42. The 70+ R might be there, yes, but he's not driving a single soul in so that massively impacts his upside.

Trent Grisham, SDP, OF

Grisham's XBH profile isn't the worst ever but his HR projection of 19 round-trippers isn't overly high either in the context of 200-ADP hitters. As was the case with Straw (read above), the kinda-low homers have a clear impact in Grisham's R/RBI projection, which is sitting at a combined 143 and doing him no favors at all in NFBC. The AVG is also below-average at .245 and the OPS is expected to tank all the way to around .750. Oh, and to make matters worse, all of those numbers coming from ATC look like an improvement of what Grisham has done through the past three seasons, so imagine if things get a little bit off the rails for him in 2022. Ugh.

Kolten Wong, MIL, 2B

Wong left comfy St. Louis to play for the Brewers last season and going forward and it worked wonderfully for him as he posted career-high marks in HR and doubles while nearly tying his best figures in R and RBI. He had, in fact, his best fantasy season to date on ESPN! Sadly, ESPN is probably the most diverging platform from NFBC when it comes to their scoring systems. That's why Wong is projected to lose 25 positions in the hitters ranks in the latter format compared to the average he gets in all other platforms. It's getting repetitive now as you already know the drill: low HR (12) + meh H (131) + tanked R+RBI (129) = murdered NFBC upside. Yes, some folks will fall for the reasonable 14 SB, but that, again, means nothing in NFBC as they don't have much value at all (in fact, the correlation between SB and NFBC FP is at a neglectable negative-2%).

Pitching Strategy for NFBC H2H Point Leagues

Nothing you have learned and know about fantasy baseball applies to winning NFBC points leagues. Seriously. There are two RP projected to top-10 finishes in this format. Eight, if you go down to the top-30 pitchers in NFBC contests. That's ridiculous. But that is, of course, because of the quite particular scoring system in place. No QS bonus points hurt starters more than you think, there is only a two-point difference between Ws and SV, and then, well, Ls have no penalty in NFBC leagues.

Losses were never going to hurt RP too much, but it's not that they have an overly great impact on SP either. QS being worth zero fantasy points, on the other hand, are massive, and so is the higher penalty that comes by the way of ER over games (-2 on NFBC compared to -1 on CBS and Fantrax).

While ESPN is the platform in which most relievers are projected to make the top-60 in pitcher ranks by the end of 2022, NFBC comes second with 12 RP in the top-50 alone. That's the problem. There is a 16-spot jump from that 12th reliever (47th-best FP projection) to the 13th (63rd-best) and virtually no distance between the 13th and the 16th ranked RP. Will Smith has the better ROI followed (at a large distance in terms of projected FP) by Lou Trivino.

Let's take a look at some potential bargains and busts for NFBC considering how the platform is structured in terms of points awarded and subtracted at each category, so things get a bit easier to understand.

Pitchers Boosted and Penalized in NFBC H2H Point Leagues

NFBC Boosted Pitchers

David Bednar, PIT, RP

David Beddy gets the largest boost in NFBC compared to other platforms. Keep in mind this doesn't mean he's a stud all of a sudden--he's just going from an average rank of top-92 to a much better top-78, but that's it. That said, though, this bump shows where to find value in NFBC pitchers. Bednar's boost comes most prominently from his depressed WHIP projection of 1.15 to go with a top-tier 10.8 K/9 and not-overblown 3.1 BB/9. At the end of the day, that's almost x3.5 times more strikeouts than walks, so the positive is clearly there. Considering also that the most-penalizing stat in NFBC are ER (-2), Bednar's super-low projection of seven HR-against gives him another edge on that front, limiting the surrendered runs he's expected to give up next year (24).

Shane Baz, TBR, SP

Baz is the most polarizing player in fantasy baseball when looking at how the different platforms and scoring systems available impact his fantasy upside. If you're reading other entries of this H2H Primer series, you already know about it: Baz has hits of -10 positions in CBS and -15 in Fantrax. For example, he has the largest boost among SP in NFBC contests, getting +6 positions up in the ranks compared to his all-platforms average.

Baz's reasons for the boost are easy to spot: low QS that hurt him in other formats but not NFBC's, extraordinary K/BB numbers, and a phenomenal WHIP on top of everything. Also, the projection of an 8-6 record through the year comes with a clean eight-win positive, non-factor six-loss negative as those Ls don't penalize starters in NFBC.

Taylor Rogers, MIN, RP

Rogers' pitching profile is mighty great. ATC sees him as an 11.4 K/9 reliever with a ground-low 2.2 BB/9. Those numbers come straight from Pitcher Heaven and combined with his 21 SV, nearly-league-low six HR-against, and ridiculous 20 ER make Rogers one (if not the) of the better relievers to target ahead of the 2022 season.

NFBC Penalized Pitchers

Max Fried, ATL, SP

Fried's case is interesting mainly because even though he projects to 178 IP and a phenomenal 15 W through the season over 30 GS, he still gets the second-largest penalty in his project NFBC rank compared to his average in all other platforms. The main reason has nothing to do with this format, so not looking at it might be what is making you wonder why the hell Fried is hit so hard here: QS. Fried is projected to have 17 Quality Starts in the latest run of ATS simulations, but sadly for NFBC GMs, that figure goes for nothing in this format. Cold world. Of course, the rest of Fried's numbers are also sublime, don't get me wrong, but the massive "penalty" or rather lack of bonus points coming from those QS (51 in platforms giving that sweet +3 FP bonus per QS) surely bring Fried closer to other pitchers in this system.

Framber Valdez, HOU, SP

Valdez is the poor's man version of Fried. He has a very legit 15 QS projection... but his K/BB ratio is much lower at just 2.28 (horrid) while so are his WHIP (1.30), BB/9 (3.5), and middle-of-the-pack 16 HR-against and sky-high 70 ER.

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