Zack Gelof: Champ or Chump for Fantasy Baseball?

July 20, 2023

Is Zack Gelof a fantasy baseball sleeper, bust, or neither? Is he a flash in the pan or will he thrive? Rick Lucks's deep dive into Gelof's 2023 fantasy value.

Sometimes, you see something that restores your faith in humanity. This author felt that way when Oakland called up top prospect Tyler Soderstrom and the fantasy community barely reacted. Soderstrom has elite raw power, but there's significant swing-and-miss in his game, his plate discipline is abysmal, and his swing needs more loft. In short, he's a project unlikely to make an immediate impact in fantasy.

The other name Oakland called up, 23-year-old 2B Zack Gelof, lacks eye-popping tools but should be able to contribute immediately. He isn't currently on any top 100 lists, but he has been in the past and was drafted 60th overall in 2021. Saying he's a non-prospect would be unfair. His MiLB stats also suggest his performance will translate nicely to the fantasy game. Heck, he already has two steals and two extra-base hits in three games played.

Oakland isn't a good offensive team and there is some risk in Gelof's profile, but the upside is too great to ignore. Let's take a closer look at why:

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The Scouting Report on Zack Gelof

Gelof is currently ranked as the third-best prospect in Oakland's system per MLB Pipeline and fifth per FanGraphs, and the major reason is that he lacks raw tools. MLB Pipeline sees 50-grade hit, 55-grade power, and 55-grade wheels, ranging from average to slightly above on the 20-80 scouting scale. FanGraphs is more pessimistic, seeing 40-hit, 45-game power, and 55-speed with an ETA of 2025.

That doesn't sound exciting, but reading the scouting reports that go with those grades reveals outstanding intangibles that should allow Gelof to produce for fantasy managers. For example, his MLB Pipeline write-up notes that Gelof "shows good knowledge of the strike zone," labels him a "good baserunner" despite "just a bit above average speed," and argues that he "provides an exciting combination of approach and raw power."

Likewise, Gelof's FanGraphs scouting report notes that his "upper-body strength enables (him) to use an atypical swing to generate power with above-average exit velocities and power-friendly launch angles." The "atypical swing" is likened to softball, but Gelof understands his unique mechanics and makes it work. The report concludes that Gelof is "just outside the top 100" due to strikeouts while also acknowledging that he walks often enough to offset the Ks.

There are plenty of players in baseball today with the physical tools to steal bases or hit for power but fail to do so consistently. Gelof looks like the opposite of that, with production that transcends his tools. Since production is what we ultimately care about, we shouldn't fret about relatively low scouting grades.

The MiLB Production of Zack Gelof

Gelof doesn't have a huge MiLB track record, but there's enough meat on the bone for fantasy managers to get excited. He made his High Minors debut for Triple-A (Las Vegas) in 2021, hitting .583 in three games. That sample is obviously too small to do anything with, so our analysis begins with his performance at Double-A (Midland) in 2022.

He hit a respectable .271/.356/.438 with 13 HR and nine steals over 402 PAs, with a torn labrum in his non-throwing shoulder accounting for the low PA total. His 27.4 K% was higher than you'd like, but his 11.7 BB% suggested that he had an idea at the plate. His 13.3 SwStr% also wasn't that bad, so there is hope for future growth. Gelof's .358 BABIP was also supported by his 25 LD% and 33.8 FB%, though the latter number didn't take full advantage of his 16% HR/FB.

Gelof was promoted to Las Vegas when he returned from his injury but only logged 38 PAs there. He added five homers and a steal to his stat line though, making 20/20 seasons possible over a full season of PAs. He was only thrown out stealing twice, giving him a strong success rate of about 83%.

Gelof began the 2023 season at Las Vegas and took full advantage of the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, batting .304/.401/.529 with 12 HR and 20 SB in 308 PAs. His .410 BABIP probably won't prove sustainable at the highest level, but his 24.9 LD%, 34.5 FB%, and slightly above-average footspeed supported an elevated BABIP. His 27.9 K% and 14.7 SwStr% were high, but his 13.3 BB% again supported an advanced plate approach.

The environment was hitter-friendly, but you still need solid raw power to post a 19.7% HR/FB like Gelof did. He was caught stealing five times for an 80% success rate, a number that works for MLB clubs. All told, Gelof should produce HR and SB: a combo that can be difficult to find on waivers this late in the season. The strikeouts and heavy reliance on BABIP make his batting average a risk, but his LD% and BB% might help him outperform expectations.

The Verdict on Zack Gelof

Gelof was drafted as a 3B, but has exclusively played 2B this year. The team appears to be committing to him at the keystone, so there are no questions about playing time or learning multiple positions. Oakland isn't a good offensive team, but they hit Gelof leadoff in one of his three games. Nothing is set in stone, but it appears likely that Gelof could earn an important lineup slot if he performs. That would be a boon to his run and RBI totals.

Projection systems don't love Gelof, with most of the major ones forecasting a .220 average with 4-5 SB and 4-5 HR in 179 PAs. That's still a 15/15 pace, with the upside for 20 HR and 40 SB if he hits like he did in the minors. The A's will run with reckless abandon if Esteury Ruiz is any indication, so Gelof should have free reign on the basepaths.

There's no guarantee that Gelof's average is good, but the HR and SB upside alone should be rostered in more than 8% of Yahoo! leagues. That makes him a Champ. He comes particularly recommended in OBP formats where his walks will help offset any average risk.

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