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Kipp Heisterman looks at breakout outfielders from last season who may continue to improve in 2020. These OF options could be draft targets for fantasy baseball.
The purpose of this article, as the title suggests, is to identify outfielders who had a breakout season in 2019 and should be expected to continue their success in 2020.
The only stipulation I have set for this article is that they must have had their breakout performance in 2019. It does not matter if they have been in the league for a few seasons already, as long as their best overall performance came last season.
Let's take a look at three outfielders that should continue to improve and are likely to be going higher in 2020 drafts but are still worth selecting.
Eloy Jimenez, Chicago White Sox
Eloy Jimenez was a key piece in a trade deadline deal that took place in 2017 and sent Jose Quintana to the Cubs in exchange for Jimenez, Dylan Cease, and two other Cubs' prospects. Jimenez spent 2017 and 2018 in the White Sox's system before finally making his debut on Opening Day 2019. Jimenez had a tremendous season despite missing nearly a month due to an ankle injury sustained in April. He slashed .267/.315/.513 with 31 HR, 79 RBI, 69 R, and 30 BB in 468 at-bats across 122 games. The production was very solid for a rookie and was enough to place him in the top five for Rookie-of-the-Year voting. His metrics were impressive as well, which is why he should be able to continue his progress in 2020.
Jimenez was above average in several metrics including a 12.8% barrel rate, 91.2 mph exit velocity, .521 xSLG, 47.9% hard-hit rate. The hard-hit rate stood out the most given that it ranked him in the top eight percent of the league. These metrics helped propel him to a 31-home run season where he also added in 18 doubles and two triples. These latter two numbers likely would have been higher had he not had such an average BABIP of .308. A hard-hit rate as high as Eloy's deserves a stronger BABIP and that is a key reason we could see solid improvement on extra-base hits in 2020.
There's also the fact that the White Sox have upgraded a lineup that ranked 24th in 2019 in runs scored. They have done this by bringing in slugger Edwin Encarnacion, offensive-minded catcher Yasmani Grandal, and Nomar Mazara. This is an offense that should be much improved in 2020 and Jimenez will be hitting near the middle of it. He is currently projected to hit sixth in the White Sox lineup between Edwin Encarnacion and Nomar Mazara, which should give him plenty of opportunities to drive runs in. It would not be entirely shocking if the White Sox move him up in the lineup at some point either.
Jimenez currently has an ADP of 63 and is currently being drafted as the 19th outfielder off the board. He has the potential to put up huge numbers in this White Sox offense in 2020 and propel himself into the top 15 or better at the position heading into 2021.
Austin Meadows, Tampa Bay Rays
Austin Meadows was another key piece in a 2018 trade deadline deal that sent Chris Archer from the Tampa Bay Rays to the Pittsburgh Pirates. 2019 was his first full season in the big leagues, and he did not disappoint as he slashed .291/.364/.534 with 33 HR, 89 RBI, 83 R, 54 BB, and 12 SB. This was a solid stat line from the youngster, but can we expect him to continue to progress heading into 2020? A look into his advanced power metrics, as well as looking into his player profile, should help us determine that.
The fact that Meadows hit 33 home runs last year may be a bit surprising, but he has always profiled as someone that would eventually hit for power in the big leagues. He had seasons in the minors where he hit for power, just not quite as prolific as he did in 2019, but the metrics seem to back up the performance. Meadows put up a 12.5% barrel rate, 90.4 mph exit velocity, .547 xSLG, and a 42.9% hard-hit rate. The xSLG he posted was especially impressive as it ranked him in the top five percent in all of baseball, a tremendous feat for such a young player. He also posted a 9.1% walk rate, which helps explain his .364 on-base percentage. He struck out 22.2% of the time, which is not all that troubling for a player in his first full season, especially one that put up a stat line like Meadows.
Aside from the power metrics, Meadows also added some speed as he stole 12 bases. While this may come as a surprise to some, he showed this ability in the minors as well. Throughout 457 games in the minors, Meadows stole a total of 66 bases. While this may not seem like many, it averages out to approximately 23 stolen bases per 162 games played. As he gets more and more comfortable at the big league level, we could easily see him increase his stolen base totals, and 20 stolen bases are certainly not out of the question for 2020, either.
Meadows currently has an ADP just outside the top 40 and is being taken as the 14th outfielder off the board. This is fair value heading into 2020, but if he can produce like he did last year and tack on some added speed, he will be a second-round pick and find himself inside the top 10 at the position heading into 2021.
Max Kepler, Minnesota Twins
Many have been waiting for Max Kepler to break out since his first full season in the big leagues in 2016. While he had some decent production through his first three seasons, he finally was able to get over the hump and officially break out in 2019. He did this by slashing .252/.336/.519 with 36 HR, 90 RBI, 98 R, and 60 BB in 524 at-bats and 134 games. He missed some time down the stretch in September due to chest discomfort, but returned for the Twins' short-lived postseason in October.
In 2019, he made big strides in home runs where he hit 16 more than any previous season and on-base percentage where he was 17 points above his career average. The 36 home runs ranked him 18th in all of baseball and the improved on-base percentage allowed him to score 98 runs, which ranked him tied for 30th in baseball. A look into his power metrics and plate discipline metrics, as well as his current situation in Minnesota's lineup, will show us why we can expect further improvement in 2020.
The first place Kepler improved from past seasons was his barrel rate. In 2019, Kepler improved on his barrel rate for the fourth consecutive season by putting up an 8.9% rate. He also improved his exit velocity for a third consecutive season by hitting 89.7 mph. These improvements are what you would hope for out of a progressing player that is entering his prime. His xSLG improved for the fourth year in a row and his hard-hit rate improved for the third consecutive year. These came despite a BABIP of .244, which is very low considering the numbers he was able to put up. If this increases by even 10 points, we are talking about a much stronger season. He also managed to keep a minimal strikeout rate at just 16.6% and paired it with a solid walk rate of 10.1%. These rates along with his plate discipline metrics are what add so much value to the power he displayed.
Kepler had a zone contact rate of 89.4% in 2019, which was in line with his career average of 88.7 and well above the league average of 82.9%. While his chase rate ticked up slightly to 27.6%, he was still below league average here. Having patience at the plate and being able to get on base as well as hit for power is what makes Kepler so valuable in this Minnesota Twins' lineup. He is projected to hit leadoff once again vs. righties, which is where he scored 87 of his runs a season ago while posting a .333 OBP and a .533 SLG. The AL Central currently has 14 projected right-handed starters across the four rotations the Twins will be facing, so opportunities will be plentiful. The Twins have also added slugger Josh Donaldson to help bolster a lineup that scored the second-most runs in baseball in 2019. Therefore, Kepler's stock entering 2020 is looking solid and he can certainly improve upon 2019's numbers.
Kepler currently has an ADP of 133 and is being taken as the 37th outfielder. He provides tremendous value at this ADP as he finished 2019 ranked just outside the top 80 overall and as a top 25 outfielder in most 12-team mixed leagues. Another step forward in 2020 will place him within the top 20 at the position.
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