XFL Best & Boldest Bets: Preseason Futures & Week 1 Picks

February 18, 2023

RotoBrady takes a look at the boldest season-long bets for the 2023 XFL season and puts together his favorite bets for Week 1 of the XFL season.

The 2023 XFL season is officially upon us, and we are finally getting XFL and USFL action together for our viewing pleasure this Spring football season. Sportsbooks are now available on that device in your pocket all over the world, and so this is going to be a Spring Football season like no other. I'll be here every week providing sports betting advice for XFL action, so join me here and let's get Xtreme. Be sure to also read all our other weekly XFL fantasy football articles.

Also, don't fret...I'll be back, right here, to talk about gambling on the USFL in April; and if we ever start expanding into the realms of the European League of Football, Indoor Football League, Fan Controlled Football, and/or (I can only hope) the CPBL of Taiwan come baseball season–I'll be right here to discuss the full happenings across the board.

They might not be the #1...or #2 leagues...but damn it, we've congregated here because we love sports. So, when the powers to be in professional sports decide to supply our hungry demand for more year-round action, it would be fundamentally and morally wrong of us to not take a head-first dive into Spring Football education so that we can continue to enter DFS contests and place anxiety-inducing bets on games that most of our friends and family probably won't even know are being played--and if you're still reading this paragraph, I am fully confident that you share my sentiment on that point. Anyway, let's get to talking about the Spring Football league that could've only been originally brought to us by the minds behind the WWE. XFL 2023: let's rock.

Preseason Futures

XFL Championship

Odds (via DraftKings Sportsbook):

• St. Louis Battlehawks (+400)
• Seattle Sea Dragons (+450)
• Arlington Renegades (+500)
• San Antonio Brahmas (+550)
• Vegas Vipers (+600)
• DC Defenders (+650)
• Houston Roughnecks (+750)
• Orlando Guardians (+750)

Best Bet: Seattle Sea Dragons (+450)

I went back and forth many times here between Seattle and the Arlington Renegades. I see the Renegades as a sensible second selection considering the fact that they appear to be the best team out of the considerably-weaker Texas-Orlando division, and the Battlehawks as a true strawman that might have the offensive and defensive lines to compete, but will ultimately be done in by their inexperienced coach and incredibly overrated options at quarterback (I was shocked to discover the pull that AJ McCarron's name still apparently has). As hard as you might want to be on Ben DiNucci for his NFL performances aside--has June Jones ever given anyone a reason to believe that he can't turn this group into an offensive juggernaut like he has done countless times before?

Look--this is Spring Football. Every team has at least one snazzy name on their quarterback depth chart and probably a few recognizable names elsewhere on the offense (other than the Arlington Renegades, which is why I ultimately pick them to take their division but lose in the postseason when they have to face whoever makes it out of the more competitive division). The difference for Seattle is clearly in the infrastructure and coaching system.

For the Battlehawks, the HC is Anthony Becht, who was a solid NFL tight end in his day, but brings with him just one year of coaching experience which was had as a TE Coach for the San Diego Fleet of the AAF in 2019. For Vegas, the man is NFL Great Rod Woodson. He was obviously an incredible NFL defensive player over the span of 16 years, and while he was coaching experience, his past titles were in the role of "Coaching Intern", Cornerbacks Coach, and Assistant thereto. Not only that, but he pretty much got fired or let go to the sound of zero protest in every instance, and it's been a less-than-harmonious start for the Vipers in their QB situation with the surprising release of Spring Legend Bryan Scott and hasty bringing in of Brett Hundley with not much time to spare before opening day kick-off.

For DC, the man in charge is Reggie Barlow, a former NFL WR and stand-out kick returner who does possess meaningful experience as a head coach, but I'm not fully sure what to make of his time and experience as HC for Alabama State and DII Virginia State. This takes me to my next point.

Boldest Bet: DC Defenders (+650)

I had narrowed this down to the DC Defenders and San Antonio, and in such a closely-handicapped league, I opted to go with the team with the fewest question marks. HC Reggie Barlow has some very interesting college football experience, including an 83-58 record, three conference division titles at Alabama State, and a conference championship with Virginia State. It took him a few years to get going at Alabama State and he inherited a great program at Virginia State only to fall off in recent years, but I still believe wholeheartedly that he has way more coaching chops than every first-time head coach in the league, and he could be just as well-suited for play in an alternative league like the XFL as the likes of Wade Phillips and Bob Stoops.

Plus, while there have already been many surprising day-one quarterback starters announced, the Defenders are going to have a competent QB with an athletic edge over most of the league whether they opt for D'Eriq King or Jordan Ta'amu, and members of their running back core like Pooka Williams could be primed for a big season in an offense that seems to appreciate the value of a ground attack. If it isn't the Seattle Sea Dragons coming out of the North Division, I love the DC Defenders all the way at +650 to finish 2023 with an XFL championship.

But--keep an eye on the San Antonio Brahmas at +550. Hines Ward is the one first-time HC in whom I have some level of confidence, and taking a less pass-heavy approach could give the Brahmas an edge over the comparatively weaker South Division.

XFL Offensive MVP

Best Bet: Ben DiNucci

Ben DiNucci has my nod for best MVP value just based on the fact that he has proven to be a quarterback worthy of NFL playing time (it might not have gone well, but that is what happens when you take the field for a short-handed team that can't protect you) who will be the starting QB for my league-champion pick alone. But throw in the fact that he will be playing in a June Jones system with a gigantic wildcard known as Josh Gordon, and the pot is all too sweetened.

Not to mention the fact that guys like Brett Hundley, Kyle Sloter, and Jacques Patrick have already, surprisingly missed out on week 1 first-string positions; and who knows how the time could get split between King and Ta'amu, so among the early favorites for MVP, Ben DiNucci is currently in the safest situation as well as one that is tailor-made to cater to his strengths. I've made clear my feelings that the Battlehawks will have their issues and that AJ McCarron's name is carrying way too much value into the season, and that leaves DiNucci as the only name in the preseason MVP race that I can trust.

Boldest Bet: Jack Coan

I was going to go with the less-bold Kyle Sloter, but he wasn't even named the Renegades' week 1 starter, so that was out, and the ultra-reliable and briefly NFL-tested Jack Coan out of Notre Dame for The Rock's San Antonio Brahmas is in as my boldest high-quality bet for MVP. There are some other players who are very similarly situated to Coan: Luis Perez is a rock-solid game manager with solid talent to work with at WR, but with a coach with whom I do not place confidence. Cole McDonald has explosive statistical talent, and yet Wade Phillips has not traditionally gotten the most out of the quarterback position; and newly-named Arlington starter Drew Plitt was a well-kept secret at Ball State before a brief but successful preseason stint with the Cincinnati Bengals--so while he must be starting for a reason, he remains a sizeable question mark.

I'd rather go with Coan, the on-field manager of the one team that I think is capable of taking the division from the Renegades and who the league (and The Rock) would not be displeased to see successful. If everyone is either a low-ceiling safety net or a huge wildcard, I'll place my money with the guy who few are thinking about with a chance at postseason success, the most intriguing first-year coach, and all the eye-balls in the Spring Football-loving world.

Who Will Get More TV Event Viewership for Season Opener & Championship

Odds:

Season Opener

• USFL (+155)
• XFL (-210)

Championship

• USFL Championship (+155)
• XFL Championship (-210)

Best Bet: XFL (2x)

No bold choices of merit to speak of here. We aren't talking about which league is better in quality or which league has the most long-term sustainability; we're talking about which league is better at getting interested eyes on their product. The USFL, with contract rights split across NBC and Fox; and the XFL, partnered with ESPN and had the distinct advantage of touting "The Rock" as the face of the league. Wait to see if the odds change more favorably for the XFL in this niche prop, but with the distinct advantage in showmanship, the ability to locate games on TV, and in starting the season first so close to the Super Bowl, I expect the XFL to start strong and carry that advantage through to their championship game. If we're talking eyes on televisions as opposed to the quality of play within the respective leagues, that's where I think the XFL will be on another plateau.

Week 1

Vipers at Renegades (Saturday, February 18th, 3 PM)

Best Bet: Renegades (-2.5)

This Vegas squad isn't going to be ready for a "Sloter Saturday" on the road in week 1 (even if it is being doled out by Drew Plitt). I trust Bob Stoops to coach circles around Rod Woodson on Opening Day and for this Vegas team to possibly hang around off of the experience of Luis Perez and the talent of Martavis Bryant before the wheels of a very out-of-sorts organization start to fall off on the field--so Arlington by at least a field goal.

Guardians at Roughnecks (Saturday, February 18th, 8:30 PM)

Best Bet: Guardians (+1)

This is the game that I am definitely the least sure about. Ultimately, I think both of these teams are poorly positioned, but a QB duo of McDonald/Eleby is a notch above the duo of Paxton Lynch/Deondre Francois, and Wade Phillips will at least be packing a respectable defense. That said, this is week 1 of a Spring Football League, and I think this is the one game with the most up in the air, so I'll take Terrell Buckley to shock the XFL world early with an Opening Day road victory as a first-year head coach--even if it won't necessarily mean a smashingly successful season.

Battlehawks at Brahmas (Sunday, February 19th, 3 PM)

Best Bet: Brahmas (+2)

This is The Rock, both literally and figuratively. While the Battlehawks have a strong slate on the offensive and defensive lines, the factor of QB is well over-hyped for them, and in a showdown of first-time head coaches, I give Hines Ward the considerable edge over Anthony Becht. How perfect for the league would it be for the Brahmas to get a home-field dub on XFL Opening Weekend? Very perfect, and the reliability of a player like Jack Coan is worth more to me than the McCarron smoke and mirrors.

Sea Dragons at Defenders (Sunday, February 19th, 8 PM)

Best Bet: Sea Dragons (EVEN)

If there is a prop out there for Game of the Week, hammer the final one of the weekend because this might be the sporting event that I'm most looking forward to over the weekend. The home environment for the Defenders at this 8PM timeframe should be a tough test to handle, but June Jones should have the coaching jump on Reggie Barlow to start off the season, and in a pick 'em contest, my confidence is with the team that I believe to be the more talented overall with a more definite plan at QB and the highest-ceiling wildcard in Josh Gordon.

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