X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

WR/CB Matchups to Upgrade and Downgrade - Fantasy Football Wild Card Round (2025)

Marvin Mims Jr. - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL DFS Picks

Corbin analyzes fantasy football WR/CB matchups to find sleepers, targets, avoids for the Wild Card Round of 2025. His WRs to upgrade or downgrade based on cornerback matchups data.

Welcome back to our WR/CB Matchups for the Wild Card Round of the 2024 fantasy football season. Congrats to all of you who won a championship or reached the title game!

For those unfamiliar, this weekly series looks at fantasy football matchups for wide receivers versus the cornerbacks who are projected to cover them. The data we access for offensive and defensive players continues to skyrocket. Though we mainly focus on offensive players, the defensive matchups and coverages sometimes take a backseat. However, the goal of this weekly column is to cover the potential wide receiver upgrades and downgrades based on the weekly WR/CB matchups for fantasy football.

Most teams mix in defensive backs all over the field, with very few cornerbacks shadowing an opposing top receiver. The main takeaway involves not overreacting to a weaker matchup if the receiver is a high-end to near-elite target earner and producer in their respective offense. Based on the weekly matchups, we'll use various tools to find several matchup upgrades and downgrades for the opposing receivers.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2025:

 

WR vs. CB Chart Details

Readers have asked for the WR/CB Matchup Chart again in 2024; now, you can find it below! While it isn't the same chart from the past, we'll have the most favorable and unfavorable matchups based on several metrics. We used weighted averages to create an adjusted offensive and defensive score. Some inputs include yards per route run, fantasy points per route run, and targets per route run.

We'll have a weekly matchup score with those adjusted scores, which are calculated by subtracting the defensive from the offensive number. The caveat is that limited data due to injured offensive and defensive players could possibly skew the matchups to be more or less favorable. Since this is a newer process, there might be some slight tweaks along the way.

With more data from the 2024 season, we'll learn what matchups to target and ones to temper expectations.

 

WR/CB Matchups Chart: Alphabetical

Below, we'll see the WR/CB matchups for the Wild Card Round sorted alphabetically. The red numbers indicate a more challenging matchup for the receiver, and the green numbers mean favorable matchups (or the defender allows a high rate of the given metric).

The WR/CB matchups for Baltimore to the Rams' offenses are below.

Below, we'll find the WR/CB matchups for the Chargers through the Commanders' offenses.

 

Wild Card WR/CB Matchups: Best Weekly Matchup Scores

Before we examine the weekly matchup upgrades and downgrades, the visual below shows the receivers with the best weekly matchup scores.

 

Wild Card WR/CB Matchup Upgrades

Khalil Shakir vs. Ja'Quan McMillian

Khalil Shakir ranked 45th in expected fantasy points per game yet ranked fifth in Receiving Air Yards Conversion Ratio (RACR). That indicates Shakir was uber-efficient in turning air yards into receiving production, though the usage looked more like a WR4.

Shakir faces the Broncos, who ran the sixth-most man coverage with the seventh-highest rate of Cover 1 since Week 10.

Among the Bills' receivers with 25 routes against man coverage, Shakir ranks third in target per route rate (20 percent) behind Amari Cooper (29 percent) and Keon Coleman (25 percent). Dalton Kincaid interestingly leads the team with a 31 percent target rate versus man coverage among their pass catchers.

Coleman has been their most efficient receiver, with 2.19 yards per route run against man coverage, while Shakir was tied with Kincaid at 1.67. We have similar trends among the Bills' pass catchers when facing Cover 1, with Coleman garnering a 26 percent target rate and 2.02 yards per route run.

Kincaid has been the best target earner on a per-route basis versus Cover 1 (31 percent), though his production was similar at 1.81 yards per route compared to Shakir at 1.79. If Coleman weren't projected to face Pat Surtain II, he would have an upgraded matchup in the Wild Card Round.

However, Shakir faces the Broncos' primary slot corner in Ja'Quan McMillian, allowing the sixth-most fantasy points and third-most yards per route in the Wild Card Round. When filtering by all cornerbacks, it still shows McMillian allowing yards and fantasy points at an above-average rate.

Since the Bills rank 16th in neutral game script pass rate at 55 percent, it presents a possible downside for them to lean on the run game against the Broncos. However, the Broncos' run defense ranked seventh in adjusted yards before contact per attempt in Week 17 heading into Week 18, meaning they should be a tougher matchup for James Cook and the rushing attack.

The Bills have the fourth-best Super Bowl odds and Shakir will need to be a regular contributor for them to beat the Broncos' defense. Kincaid might be a sneaky sleeper in this matchup, but roll with Shakir among the Bills' receivers unless you're looking for a contrarian play like Coleman with strength against strength.

Cooper Kupp vs. Byron Murphy Jr.

The Rams' offense remains consolidated around Puka Nacua. In Weeks 12-17, Cooper Kupp averaged nine expected fantasy points per game. That's near Darnell Mooney, Michael Wilson, and Deebo Samuel Sr. For context, Nacua ranked fifth in expected fantasy points in Weeks 12-17, showing elite usage compared to Kupp's WR4/5 volume.

The Vikings ran two high safety looks at the fourth-highest rate (58.2 percent) in Weeks 10-18. That puts the Vikings behind the Bengals, Chiefs, and Jaguars. Furthermore, the Vikings' defense used Cover 2 at the fourth-highest rate in Weeks 10-18.

Kupp rocks a 30 percent target rate and 2.59 yards per route run against two high safety looks. That's similar to Nacua's 30 percent target rate and 2.49 yards per route versus two-high safeties.

The numbers have been more ridiculous against Cover 2, evidenced by Kupp's 45 percent target rate (No. 1) and 3.90 yards per route run (No. 3) among WR/TE with 25 routes. Nacua's numbers were above average, given the 28 percent target rate and 2.44 yards per route run versus Cover 2.

The individual matchup against Byron Murphy Jr. projects like one that's middle of the pack. Murphy allowed the 42nd-most fantasy points per route and 36th-highest yards per route run heading into Week 18.

The Vikings and Rams game projects as the second-highest total (47.5) in the Wild Card Round. If the Rams want a chance versus the Vikings, they'll need to use Kupp like they had historically.

Marvin Mims Jr. vs. Rasul Douglas

Fantasy managers were rewarded if they had patience with Marvin Mims Jr., mainly in dynasty leagues. We joke about per-route kings while projecting more usage, meaning more fantasy points. Heading into Week 18, Mims averaged the fifth-most fantasy points per route, tied with Nico Collins and Ja'Marr Chase, and the sixth-highest yards per route run behind Justin Jefferson.

The visual below shows the receiving leaders sorted by fantasy points per route run in the Week 18 WR/CB matchups.

It's fair to speculate on Mims and his outlier production, but Sean Payton seems to love him. In Weeks 12-17, Mims ranks second behind Courtland Sutton in expected fantasy points per game, though there's a seven-point difference. It's better to chase volume instead of efficiency, but we'll highlight Mims averaging the fifth-most fantasy points over expected per game in Weeks 12-17.

Mims tied with Ladd McConkey and Jalen McMillan in fantasy points over expected in Weeks 12-17. McMillan had similar usage in expected fantasy points, so that might be an interesting comparison based on how the market values Mims versus the rookie.

The Chiefs' defense used the second-most two high safety coverages in Weeks 10-18. However, they have allowed the second-fewest fantasy points per dropback when deploying two high-safety looks.

Mims led the Broncos in target rate and yards per route run, ranking sixth among pass catchers with 25 routes against two-high safety coverages. Speaking of per-route kings, Mims has the second-lowest route percentage against two high safeties behind Stone Smartt.

Interestingly, Mims faces Joshua Williams, allowing the 18th-lowest fantasy points per route and the 14th-most yards per route heading into Week 18. Expect Payton to scheme up opportunities for Mims Jr., evidenced by his team-high target per route rate in Weeks 12-17.

 

Wild Card WR/CB Matchup Downgrades

Mike Evans vs. Marshon Lattimore

Marshon Lattimore missed the final two games with a hamstring injury but logged a full practice heading into the Wild Card Round. Mike Evans historically struggled against Lattimore, yet now the veteran cornerback will face him in the playoffs on a different team.

Heading into Week 18, Evans ranked 23rd in expected fantasy points and first-read target share per game in Weeks 12-17. The Commanders used man coverage at the sixth-highest rate while allowing the fifth-fewest fantasy points per dropback in Weeks 10-17.

Evans ranked 26th in target rate and 28th in yards per route run against man coverage, leading the team when we toss out Chris Godwin's numbers. Among receivers with an Average Separation Score of .200 against man and .100 versus zone, Evans was one of 11 players to meet those thresholds, as seen below.

Theoretically, it's strength versus strength for Evans and the Commanders' pass defense, specifically versus man coverage. Lattimore allowed the fewest fantasy points per route, tied with Surtain II, and the second-lowest yards per route run.

The Commanders and Buccaneers' game projects for the highest over/under (50.5) in the Wild Card Round. Based on the historical data versus Lattimore, that might be concerning to fade Evans.

The Commanders' pass rush generates the second-lowest pressure rate in Weeks 10-17 heading into Week 18. That's another way this smacks us in the face. Among quarterbacks with 25 dropbacks without pressure, Baker Mayfield ranks 18th in adjusted yards per attempt, 11th in completion rate over expected, and 14th in fantasy points per dropback.

Be cautious with Evans in the Wild Card Round, especially if the Commanders' defense pressures Mayfield.

Courtland Sutton vs. Christian Benford

The Broncos and Bills game might be one of the more pivotable matchups in the playoffs. Courtland Sutton ranks 11th in expected fantasy points per game and 20th in first-read target share in Weeks 12-17.

The Bills use two high safety coverages at the 10th-highest rate in Weeks 10-18. However, they've ranked middle of the pack, with the 18th-most fantasy points per dropback versus two high looks. Sutton ranks 39th in target rate and 114th in yards per route run against two high safety coverages.

Sutton projects to face Christian Benford, who allows the second-fewest fantasy points and second-fewest yards per route run in coverage. For context, Benford's numbers were nearly identical to Surtain II.

Though the usage indicates we shouldn't fade Sutton, we should be cautious in the Wild Card Round against Benford and the Bills' pass defense.

Best of luck this week in the Wild Card matchups!



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy football app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, rankings, starts/sits & more. All free!

More Fantasy Football Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Jeff McNeil

Hitting Eighth In Season Debut
Brandon Sproat

Coughs Up Six Earned Runs In Latest Start
Eury Pérez

Eury Perez To Start Rehab Assignment On Saturday
Bailey Falter

Good To Go To Start On Sunday Against Dodgers
Clayton Kershaw

Has Successful Second Rehab Outing
Tyler Glasnow

Will Start On Sunday Against Pirates
Francisco Alvarez

Reinstated From Injured List, Starting On Friday
Merrill Kelly

To Make His Next Start On Saturday
Jeffrey Springs

Cleared To Start On Saturday Against White Sox
Ryan Jeffers

To See More Work Behind The Plate
Pablo López

Pablo Lopez Reinstated From Injured List And Starting On Friday
Taijuan Walker

Starting On Friday Against Cubs
Javier Assad

Dealing With Grade 2 Oblique Strain
Ryan Pressly

Status TBD For Friday's Game
Seiya Suzuki

Returns For Series Opener Against Phillies
Willy Adames

Knocks In Go-Ahead Run In Win
Wilyer Abreu

Cools After Hot Start
Vinnie Pasquantino

Continues Dismal Start
Will Levis

Could Be Traded Soon
Josh Naylor

Drives In Run In Loss
Bryce Young

Wanted Panthers To Take Tetairoa McMillan
Travis Hunter

Jaguars Plan To Start Travis Hunter In The Receiver Room
Garrett Crochet

Dealt Second Loss
Detroit Lions

Lions Pick Up Aidan Hutchinson's Fifth-Year Option
Jameson Williams

Lions Exercise Jameson Williams' Fifth-Year Option
Rhett Lowder

To Throw A Bullpen Session On Saturday
Carlos Prates

Looks To Remain Undefeated In The UFC
Ian Machado Garry

Set For UFC Kansas City Main Event
Cade Cunningham

Collects Double-Double In Loss
Jalen Brunson

Drops 30 Points In Game 3
Karl-Anthony Towns

Leads All Scorers In Game 3 Victory
Zhang Mingyang

Scheduled For Co-Main Event
Anthony Smith

Set For His Final UFC Bout
David Onama

Set For Featherweight Bout
Giga Chikadze

Looks To Bounce Back
Abus Magomedov

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Michel Pereira

Returns To Action At UFC Kansas City
Nicolas Dalby

An Underdog At UFC Kansas City
Randy Brown

A Favorite At UFC Kansas City
Andre Muniz

Set To Open Up UFC Kansas City Main Card
Ikram Aliskerov

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Sergei Bobrovsky

Shuts Out Lightning In Game 2
Cam Fowler

Finishes Thursday's Win With Five Points
Robert Thomas

Posts Four Assists In Game 3 Win
Pavel Buchnevich

Celebrates Hat Trick During Four-Point Performance
Dylan DeMelo

Battling An Illness
Marcus Johansson

Exits Early Thursday
Aleksander Barkov

Hurt In Game 2
Jameson Williams

Lions Didn't Entertain Trade Offers For Jameson Williams
Qadir Ismail

Raiders Sign Qadir Ismail
New York Giants

Giants Plan To Exercise Kayvon Thibodeaux's Fifth-Year Option
Russell Wilson

Will Be Giants Starting Quarterback
Kansas City Chiefs

Chiefs Close Out The First Round With Josh Simmons
Philadelphia Eagles

Eagles Trade Up One Spot In First Round To Select Jihaad Campbell
Buffalo Bills

Bills Address Secondary And Take Maxwell Hairston With 30th Overall Pick
NFL

Eagles, Chiefs Swap First-Round Picks
Washington Commanders

Josh Conerly Jr. Goes At No. 29 Overall To Commanders
Jaxson Dart

Giants Trade Up For Jaxson Dart At No. 25
Detroit Lions

Tyleik Williams Taken By Lions At No. 28 Overall
Baltimore Ravens

Ravens Go With Malaki Starks At No. 27 Overall In NFL Draft
Minnesota Vikings

Minnesota Takes Donovan Jackson No. 24 Overall
NFL

Rams Trade The 26th Pick In The 2025 NFL Draft To The Falcons
Atlanta Falcons

Falcons Trade Back Into First Round To Draft James Pearce Jr. At No. 26 Overall
Matthew Golden

Selected No. 23 Overall By Green Bay
Jrue Holiday

Tagged As Questionable For Friday
Jayson Tatum

Likely Out Again On Friday
Isaiah Stewart

Remains Out For Game 3
Anthony Cirelli

Good To Go Thursday
Andrei Vasilevskiy

Looks To Bounce Back In Game 2
Rasmus Ristolainen

To Miss Training Camp
Jonas Siegenthaler

Returns To Practice
Aliaksei Protas

Traveling With Capitals
Gabriel Vilardi

Still Out On Thursday
Max Pacioretty

Set To Join Maple Leafs Lineup For Game 3
Linus Ullmark

Attempts To Overcome Playoff Struggles Thursday
Anthony Cirelli

A Game-Time Call Thursday
Logan Thompson

Comes Up Big In Game 2
Connor McMichael

Strikes Twice In Wednesday's Win
Anze Kopitar

Tallies Four Points In Game 2 Victory
Adrian Kempe

Notches Two Goals, Two Assists In Wednesday's Win
Tyler Seguin

Gives Stars Series Lead With Overtime Winner
Tyler Herro

Scores Game-High 33 Points In Wednesday's Loss
Donovan Mitchell

Fires In 30 Points In Game 2 Win
Paolo Banchero

Notches 32 Points In Game 2 Loss
Jaylen Brown

Posts 36-Point Double-Double Wednesday
Jalen Green

Erupts For 38 Points In Game 2 Victory
Brandin Podziemski

Limited To 14 Minutes Wednesday
Jimmy Butler III

Set For MRI Thursday
Brandin Podziemski

Upgraded To Available
Cam Davis

Looking For Better Fortunes At TPC Louisiana
Michael Porter Jr.

Listed As Questionable For Game 3
Adam Svensson

Making Third Apperence At Zurich Classic
Davion Mitchell

Moves Into Starting Lineup Wednesday
Brandin Podziemski

Picks Up Questionable Tag
Al Horford

Starts Game 2
Michael Porter Jr.

Practices On Wednesday
Jayson Tatum

Out On Wednesday
Isaiah Stewart

May Miss Another Game Thursday
Max Greyserman

Aiming For Similar Success At TPC Louisiana
Lee Hodges

A High-Upside Player In New Orleans
PGA

Nico Echavarria Looks To Ride Off Of Elite Putting In New Orleans
Gary Woodland

A Player Worth Watching In New Orleans
Max McGreevy

Returns To The Zurich Classic Of New Orleans
Rasmus Hojgaard

In Search Of Consistency Ahead Of Zurich Classic
Sam Stevens

A Boom-Or-Bust Candidate In New Orleans
Nicolai Hojgaard

Looking To Turn Season Around At Zurich Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Looks To Sway A Hot Putter In Teams Favor At Zurich Classic
Akshay Bhatia

Looking To Bounce Back At TPC Louisiana
Carson Young

Looks To Turn Things Around At TPC Louisiana
Erik Van Rooyen

Looking For Momentum In Louisiana
Andrew Novak

Making Start At TPC Louisiana After Near Miss At Harbour Town
Ben Griffin

Making Third Career Start At Zurich Classic
Taylor Moore

Competing With A New Teammate In New Orleans
Wyndham Clark

Making Return To New Orleans
Kurt Kitayama

Teeing It Up Again In New Orleans
Collin Morikawa

Back At Zurich Classic For Fifth Time
Thomas Detry

Making Third Appearance At New Orleans Team Event
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF