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Corbin analyzes fantasy football WR/CB matchups to find sleepers, targets, avoids for the Wild Card Round of 2025. His WRs to upgrade or downgrade based on cornerback matchups data.
Welcome back to our WR/CB Matchups for the Wild Card Round of the 2024 fantasy football season. Congrats to all of you who won a championship or reached the title game!
For those unfamiliar, this weekly series looks at fantasy football matchups for wide receivers versus the cornerbacks who are projected to cover them. The data we access for offensive and defensive players continues to skyrocket. Though we mainly focus on offensive players, the defensive matchups and coverages sometimes take a backseat. However, the goal of this weekly column is to cover the potential wide receiver upgrades and downgrades based on the weekly WR/CB matchups for fantasy football.
Most teams mix in defensive backs all over the field, with very few cornerbacks shadowing an opposing top receiver. The main takeaway involves not overreacting to a weaker matchup if the receiver is a high-end to near-elite target earner and producer in their respective offense. Based on the weekly matchups, we'll use various tools to find several matchup upgrades and downgrades for the opposing receivers.
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WR vs. CB Chart Details
Readers have asked for the WR/CB Matchup Chart again in 2024; now, you can find it below! While it isn't the same chart from the past, we'll have the most favorable and unfavorable matchups based on several metrics. We used weighted averages to create an adjusted offensive and defensive score. Some inputs include yards per route run, fantasy points per route run, and targets per route run.
We'll have a weekly matchup score with those adjusted scores, which are calculated by subtracting the defensive from the offensive number. The caveat is that limited data due to injured offensive and defensive players could possibly skew the matchups to be more or less favorable. Since this is a newer process, there might be some slight tweaks along the way.
With more data from the 2024 season, we'll learn what matchups to target and ones to temper expectations.
WR/CB Matchups Chart: Alphabetical
Below, we'll see the WR/CB matchups for the Wild Card Round sorted alphabetically. The red numbers indicate a more challenging matchup for the receiver, and the green numbers mean favorable matchups (or the defender allows a high rate of the given metric).
The WR/CB matchups for Baltimore to the Rams' offenses are below.
Below, we'll find the WR/CB matchups for the Chargers through the Commanders' offenses.
Wild Card WR/CB Matchups: Best Weekly Matchup Scores
Before we examine the weekly matchup upgrades and downgrades, the visual below shows the receivers with the best weekly matchup scores.
Wild Card WR/CB Matchup Upgrades
Khalil Shakir vs. Ja'Quan McMillian
Khalil Shakir ranked 45th in expected fantasy points per game yet ranked fifth in Receiving Air Yards Conversion Ratio (RACR). That indicates Shakir was uber-efficient in turning air yards into receiving production, though the usage looked more like a WR4.
Shakir faces the Broncos, who ran the sixth-most man coverage with the seventh-highest rate of Cover 1 since Week 10.
Among the Bills' receivers with 25 routes against man coverage, Shakir ranks third in target per route rate (20 percent) behind Amari Cooper (29 percent) and Keon Coleman (25 percent). Dalton Kincaid interestingly leads the team with a 31 percent target rate versus man coverage among their pass catchers.
Coleman has been their most efficient receiver, with 2.19 yards per route run against man coverage, while Shakir was tied with Kincaid at 1.67. We have similar trends among the Bills' pass catchers when facing Cover 1, with Coleman garnering a 26 percent target rate and 2.02 yards per route run.
Kincaid has been the best target earner on a per-route basis versus Cover 1 (31 percent), though his production was similar at 1.81 yards per route compared to Shakir at 1.79. If Coleman weren't projected to face Pat Surtain II, he would have an upgraded matchup in the Wild Card Round.
However, Shakir faces the Broncos' primary slot corner in Ja'Quan McMillian, allowing the sixth-most fantasy points and third-most yards per route in the Wild Card Round. When filtering by all cornerbacks, it still shows McMillian allowing yards and fantasy points at an above-average rate.
Since the Bills rank 16th in neutral game script pass rate at 55 percent, it presents a possible downside for them to lean on the run game against the Broncos. However, the Broncos' run defense ranked seventh in adjusted yards before contact per attempt in Week 17 heading into Week 18, meaning they should be a tougher matchup for James Cook and the rushing attack.
The Bills have the fourth-best Super Bowl odds and Shakir will need to be a regular contributor for them to beat the Broncos' defense. Kincaid might be a sneaky sleeper in this matchup, but roll with Shakir among the Bills' receivers unless you're looking for a contrarian play like Coleman with strength against strength.
Cooper Kupp vs. Byron Murphy Jr.
The Rams' offense remains consolidated around Puka Nacua. In Weeks 12-17, Cooper Kupp averaged nine expected fantasy points per game. That's near Darnell Mooney, Michael Wilson, and Deebo Samuel Sr. For context, Nacua ranked fifth in expected fantasy points in Weeks 12-17, showing elite usage compared to Kupp's WR4/5 volume.
The Vikings ran two high safety looks at the fourth-highest rate (58.2 percent) in Weeks 10-18. That puts the Vikings behind the Bengals, Chiefs, and Jaguars. Furthermore, the Vikings' defense used Cover 2 at the fourth-highest rate in Weeks 10-18.
Kupp rocks a 30 percent target rate and 2.59 yards per route run against two high safety looks. That's similar to Nacua's 30 percent target rate and 2.49 yards per route versus two-high safeties.
The numbers have been more ridiculous against Cover 2, evidenced by Kupp's 45 percent target rate (No. 1) and 3.90 yards per route run (No. 3) among WR/TE with 25 routes. Nacua's numbers were above average, given the 28 percent target rate and 2.44 yards per route run versus Cover 2.
The individual matchup against Byron Murphy Jr. projects like one that's middle of the pack. Murphy allowed the 42nd-most fantasy points per route and 36th-highest yards per route run heading into Week 18.
The Vikings and Rams game projects as the second-highest total (47.5) in the Wild Card Round. If the Rams want a chance versus the Vikings, they'll need to use Kupp like they had historically.
Marvin Mims Jr. vs. Rasul Douglas
Fantasy managers were rewarded if they had patience with Marvin Mims Jr., mainly in dynasty leagues. We joke about per-route kings while projecting more usage, meaning more fantasy points. Heading into Week 18, Mims averaged the fifth-most fantasy points per route, tied with Nico Collins and Ja'Marr Chase, and the sixth-highest yards per route run behind Justin Jefferson.
The visual below shows the receiving leaders sorted by fantasy points per route run in the Week 18 WR/CB matchups.
It's fair to speculate on Mims and his outlier production, but Sean Payton seems to love him. In Weeks 12-17, Mims ranks second behind Courtland Sutton in expected fantasy points per game, though there's a seven-point difference. It's better to chase volume instead of efficiency, but we'll highlight Mims averaging the fifth-most fantasy points over expected per game in Weeks 12-17.
Mims tied with Ladd McConkey and Jalen McMillan in fantasy points over expected in Weeks 12-17. McMillan had similar usage in expected fantasy points, so that might be an interesting comparison based on how the market values Mims versus the rookie.
The Chiefs' defense used the second-most two high safety coverages in Weeks 10-18. However, they have allowed the second-fewest fantasy points per dropback when deploying two high-safety looks.
Mims led the Broncos in target rate and yards per route run, ranking sixth among pass catchers with 25 routes against two-high safety coverages. Speaking of per-route kings, Mims has the second-lowest route percentage against two high safeties behind Stone Smartt.
Interestingly, Mims faces Joshua Williams, allowing the 18th-lowest fantasy points per route and the 14th-most yards per route heading into Week 18. Expect Payton to scheme up opportunities for Mims Jr., evidenced by his team-high target per route rate in Weeks 12-17.
Wild Card WR/CB Matchup Downgrades
Mike Evans vs. Marshon Lattimore
Marshon Lattimore missed the final two games with a hamstring injury but logged a full practice heading into the Wild Card Round. Mike Evans historically struggled against Lattimore, yet now the veteran cornerback will face him in the playoffs on a different team.
Heading into Week 18, Evans ranked 23rd in expected fantasy points and first-read target share per game in Weeks 12-17. The Commanders used man coverage at the sixth-highest rate while allowing the fifth-fewest fantasy points per dropback in Weeks 10-17.
Evans ranked 26th in target rate and 28th in yards per route run against man coverage, leading the team when we toss out Chris Godwin's numbers. Among receivers with an Average Separation Score of .200 against man and .100 versus zone, Evans was one of 11 players to meet those thresholds, as seen below.
Theoretically, it's strength versus strength for Evans and the Commanders' pass defense, specifically versus man coverage. Lattimore allowed the fewest fantasy points per route, tied with Surtain II, and the second-lowest yards per route run.
The Commanders and Buccaneers' game projects for the highest over/under (50.5) in the Wild Card Round. Based on the historical data versus Lattimore, that might be concerning to fade Evans.
The Commanders' pass rush generates the second-lowest pressure rate in Weeks 10-17 heading into Week 18. That's another way this smacks us in the face. Among quarterbacks with 25 dropbacks without pressure, Baker Mayfield ranks 18th in adjusted yards per attempt, 11th in completion rate over expected, and 14th in fantasy points per dropback.
Be cautious with Evans in the Wild Card Round, especially if the Commanders' defense pressures Mayfield.
Courtland Sutton vs. Christian Benford
The Broncos and Bills game might be one of the more pivotable matchups in the playoffs. Courtland Sutton ranks 11th in expected fantasy points per game and 20th in first-read target share in Weeks 12-17.
The Bills use two high safety coverages at the 10th-highest rate in Weeks 10-18. However, they've ranked middle of the pack, with the 18th-most fantasy points per dropback versus two high looks. Sutton ranks 39th in target rate and 114th in yards per route run against two high safety coverages.
Sutton projects to face Christian Benford, who allows the second-fewest fantasy points and second-fewest yards per route run in coverage. For context, Benford's numbers were nearly identical to Surtain II.
Though the usage indicates we shouldn't fade Sutton, we should be cautious in the Wild Card Round against Benford and the Bills' pass defense.
Best of luck this week in the Wild Card matchups!
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