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Corbin analyzes fantasy football WR/CB matchups to find sleepers, targets, avoids for Week 17 of 2024. His WRs to upgrade or downgrade based on cornerback matchups data.
Welcome back to our WR/CB Matchups for Week 17 of the 2024 fantasy football season. Congrats to all of you who are still in the 2024 fantasy football playoffs and marching toward a championship!
For those unfamiliar, this weekly series looks at fantasy football matchups for wide receivers versus the cornerbacks who are projected to cover them. The data we access for offensive and defensive players continues to skyrocket. Though we mainly focus on offensive players, the defensive matchups and coverages sometimes take a backseat. However, the goal of this weekly column is to cover the potential wide receiver upgrades and downgrades based on the weekly WR/CB matchups for fantasy football.
Most teams mix in defensive backs all over the field, with very few cornerbacks shadowing an opposing top receiver. The main takeaway involves not overreacting to a weaker matchup if the receiver is a high-end to near-elite target earner and producer in their respective offense. Based on the weekly matchups, we'll use various tools to find several matchup upgrades and downgrades for the opposing receivers.
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WR vs. CB Chart Details
Readers have asked for the WR/CB Matchup Chart again in 2024; now, you can find it below! While it isn't the same chart from the past, we'll have the most favorable and unfavorable matchups based on several metrics. We used weighted averages to create an adjusted offensive and defensive score. Some inputs include yards per route run, fantasy points per route run, and targets per route run.
We'll have a weekly matchup score with those adjusted scores by subtracting the defensive from the offensive number. The caveat would be the limited data due to injured offensive and defensive players, possibly skewing the matchups to be more or less favorable. Since this is a newer process, there might be some slight tweaks along the way.
With more data from the 2024 season, we'll learn what matchups to target and ones to temper expectations.
WR/CB Matchups Chart: Alphabetical
Below, we'll see the WR/CB matchups for Week 17 sorted alphabetically. The red numbers indicate a more challenging matchup for the receiver, and the green numbers mean favorable matchups (or the defender allows a high rate of the given metric). We shaded the Wednesday games in red and the Thursday game in blue, though this article came out after the Wednesday games.
The visual below shows offenses from the Arizona Cardinals to the Detroit Lions.
The visual below shows offenses from the Green Bay Packers to the New England Patriots.
The visual below shows offenses from the New Orleans Saints through the Washington Commanders.
Week 17 WR/CB Matchups: Best Weekly Matchup Scores
Before we examine the weekly matchup upgrades and downgrades, the visual below shows the receivers with the best weekly matchup scores.
Week 17 WR/CB Matchup Upgrades
Jakobi Meyers vs. Ugo Amadi
The usage for Jakobi Meyers has been like a WR2, evidenced by his 18th-best expected fantasy points per game. However, Meyers' efficiency has been lacking, ranking 167th among qualified receivers in fantasy points over expected per game.
Besides Brock Bowers, Meyers is the preferred option in the passing offense. Meyers will face the Saints, who use the 10th-most Cover 1 (26.4 percent). The Saints pass defense runs the 13th-most man coverage while limiting opposing receivers to the fourth-fewest fantasy points per dropback.
That's partly because opposing offenses tend to run and find success against the Saints run defense. The Saints rush defense allows the fifth-most adjusted yards before contact per attempt. However, the Saints defense has been better versus the run, allowing the 12th-fewest adjusted yards before contact per attempt, being more of a pass funnel.
Meyers garners a 23 percent targets per route rate, producing 1.42 yards per route run against Cover 1. He still earns a decent 22 percent target rate against man coverage but lacks efficiency with 1.54 yards per route.
That presents the downsides in this matchup, but Meyers projects to face Ugo Amadi, who allows the fourth-most fantasy points per route and second-most yards per route run. Since Week 10, the Raiders rank fifth in pass rate during neutral game scripts, which bodes well for Meyers and the Raiders pass-catchers.
The top receiver against the Saints averaged 8.6 targets, 5.2 receptions, 85.2 receiving yards, and 19.2 PPR/G over the past five contests. Though the Raiders and Saints game projects as one of the lowest totals (39.5-40), Meyers should be valued as a WR2 in a favorable matchup against the Saints slot cornerback.
Khalil Shakir vs. Isaiah Oliver
Since Week 10, Khalil Shakir ranked 22nd in expected fantasy points per game and tied for 11th in targets per route run rate at 29 percent. Shakir leads the team in first-read target share and expected fantasy points in Weeks 10-16.
In Weeks 10-16, the Jets defense used the eighth-most man coverage and the eighth-highest rate of Cover 1. Shakir hasn't posted great numbers against man coverage, with a 21 percent target rate and 1.66 yards per route run.
Meanwhile, Shakir has been better against zone coverage, with the sixth-highest target rate and the 15th-best yards per route run. The Jets use the 11th-most single-high safety looks, and Josh Allen targets Shakir at a high rate (27 percent target rate) and a solid 2.19 yards per route run.
The Jets pass defense has allowed the second-most fantasy points to the slot. Shakir projects to face Isaiah Oliver, who allows 0.23 fantasy points per route and 1.09 yards per route run. Though the Jets cornerbacks have limited receiver production across the season, they've allowed over 86 receiving yards and 21 PPR/G over the past five contests. Shakir projects for a slight WR/CB matchup upgrade in Week 17.
Jauan Jennings vs. Terrion Arnold
We're at the point in the season where tough calls should be made. Jauan Jennings ranks 37th in expected fantasy points per game in Weeks 10-16. Jennings leads the 49ers in first-read target rate and air yards share while ranking second in yards per route run.
The Lions defense uses the second-most man coverage with the second-highest rate of Cover 1 in Weeks 10-16. That indicates defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn continues to use man coverage, despite the injuries.
That's where Jennings thrives against man coverage, especially in contested situations. Jennings garners an above-average 27 percent targets per route rate (No. 35) and the 30th-best yards per route run at 2.45 against man coverage. He converted 83.3 percent of his 20 contested targets for receptions versus man coverage, making him a boom-or-bust WR3.
The Lions allow the 10th-most fantasy points to receivers out wide, where Jennings plays about 60 percent of the time. Jennings projects to face Terrion Arnold, who allows the 38th-most fantasy points per route and 28th-highest yards per route run allowed.
The top receiving scorers against the Lions averaged 8.4 targets, six receptions, 92.6 receiving yards, and 20.1 PPR/G over the past five games. The 49ers and Lions game has the highest over/under, so we want a piece of this game in our lineups. Jennings can win against man coverage and Brock Purdy trusts him, making him a touchdown-dependent WR3 in Week 17.
Week 17 WR/CB Matchup Downgrades
Elijah Moore vs. Kader Kohou
Jerry Jeudy vs. Jalen Ramsey
Quarterback issues aside, Elijah Moore averaged 11.7 expected fantasy points per game in Weeks 10-16. That put Moore behind David Njoku (17.9) and Jerry Jeudy (14.5). Jeudy has a more neutral matchup against Jalen Ramsey, though it would be more negative if manually adjusted for the quarterback issues.
Last week, we speculated on Jameis Winston potentially entering the game in Week 16, but the Browns made him inactive as their emergency quarterback. We've heard reports that Winston is dealing with a shoulder injury, further derailing the hopeful narrative for the Browns pass-catchers besides Njoku, who garnered a team-high 10 targets in Week 16.
The Dolphins use zone coverage at the ninth-highest rate (74.3 percent) with the second-most rate of Cover 2. Moore garners a 16 percent target rate and 0.91 yards per route run against zone coverage. His numbers versus Cover 2 have been similarly brutal, with a 14 percent target rate and 0.75 yards per route.
Jeudy has been mediocre versus zone coverage, with a 20 percent target rate and 2.07 yards per route. It's even worse against Cover 2, evidenced by Jeudy's 15 percent target rate and 1.25 yards per route.
The Dolphins pass defense has allowed the fifth-lowest fantasy points to the slot. That's mainly due to their underrated slot cornerback, Kader Kohou. He has given up the sixth-lowest yards per coverage snap among qualified slot cornerbacks. That puts Kohou behind Tarheeb Still, Cameron Sutton, Marlon Humphrey, Garrett Williams, and Troy Hill in yardage allowed in slot coverage.
The visual below shows the best slot cornerbacks sorted by the fewest yards per coverage snap allowed.
Furthermore, Kohou allows the 23rd-lowest fantasy points per route and the 10th-fewest yards per route run. Ramsey's numbers have been similar to Kohou's, giving up the 25th-lowest in fantasy points per route and the 44th-fewest yards per route.
The Browns have the second-lowest implied team total in Week 17 at 16.5, ahead of the Giants (15.5). Be careful with any Browns receiver in Week 17.
Tee Higgins vs. Pat Surtain II
We could debate whether Pat Surtain II will cover Tee Higgins or Ja'Marr Chase. However, we went with Higgins based on where he lines up on the field. Chase is somewhat unguardable since the Bengals move him around the formation, especially in more challenging matchups.
It doesn't mean we're recommending sitting them when we downgrade players. Rather, we're bringing up the potential concerns for underperforming in their given weekly matchup. That said, no one will bench Higgins or Chase regardless of the matchup with the Broncos.
Higgins ranks fifth in expected fantasy points per game in 2024, suggesting elite usage, with Chase ranking third. They face a Broncos defense that runs the 10th-highest man coverage and the 11th-most Cover 1.
The volume has been there for Higgins, evidenced by a 30 percent targets per route rate, leading to a 1.91 yards per route run against man coverage. Interestingly, Higgins bests Chase in target rate (23 percent) and yards per route run (1.62) against man coverage.
They have similar numbers versus Cover 1, with Higgins leading the team with a 29 percent target rate and 1.84 yards per route. Higgins bests Chase's target rate (24 percent), but Chase's yards per route is better at 2.02 against Cover 1.
If Higgins matches up with Surtain, he goes up against a cornerback who allows the third-fewest fantasy points per route and the lowest yards per route run. The Broncos allow the seventh-most fantasy points to the slot and the 11th-most fantasy points to receivers out wide.
Jerry Jeudy's historic performance in Week 13 probably skewed the data, with 235 receiving yards and 40.5 PPR. However, the Broncos secondary can be beaten when targets shift away from Surtain and Riley Moss. For instance, 77 percent of Jeudy's breakout game yardage came against Justin Strnad, Brandon Jones, and Levi Wallace.
We can't fade a Bengals offense having the highest pass rate in neutral game scripts, but the production will be limited if and when Surtain covers Higgins in Week 17.
Best of luck this week in your playoff matchups!
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