X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

WR/CB Matchups to Upgrade and Downgrade - Fantasy Football Week 16 (2024)

Christian Watson - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Corbin analyzes fantasy football WR/CB matchups to find sleepers, targets, avoids for Week 16 of 2024. His WRs to upgrade or downgrade based on cornerback matchups data.

Welcome back to our WR/CB Matchups for Week 16 of the 2024 fantasy football season. Congrats to all of you that are still in the 2024 fantasy football playoffs, and marching towards a championship!

For those unfamiliar, this weekly series looks at fantasy football matchups for wide receivers versus the cornerbacks who are projected to cover them. The data we access for offensive and defensive players continues to skyrocket. Though we mainly focus on offensive players, the defensive matchups and coverages sometimes take a backseat. However, the goal of this weekly column is to cover the potential wide receiver upgrades and downgrades based on the weekly WR/CB matchups for fantasy football.

Most teams mix in defensive backs all over the field, with very few cornerbacks shadowing an opposing top receiver. The main takeaway involves not overreacting to a weaker matchup if the receiver is a high-end to near-elite target earner and producer in their respective offense. Based on the weekly matchups, we'll use various tools to find several matchup upgrades and downgrades for the opposing receivers.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2025:

 

WR vs. CB Chart Details

Readers have asked for the WR/CB Matchup Chart again in 2024; now, you can find it below! While it isn't the same chart from the past, we'll have the most favorable and unfavorable matchups based on several metrics. We used weighted averages to create an adjusted offensive and defensive score. Some inputs include yards per route run, fantasy points per route run, and targets per route run.

We'll have a weekly matchup score with those adjusted scores by subtracting the defensive from the offensive number. The caveat would be the limited data due to injured offensive and defensive players, possibly skewing the matchups to be more or less favorable. Since this is a newer process, there might be some slight tweaks along the way.

With more data from the 2024 season, we'll learn what matchups to target and ones to temper expectations.

 

WR/CB Matchups Chart: Alphabetical

Below, we'll see the WR/CB matchups for Week 16 sorted alphabetically. The red numbers indicate a more challenging matchup for the receiver, and the green numbers mean favorable matchups (or the defender allows a high rate of the given metric).

The visual below shows offenses from the Arizona Cardinals to the Detroit Lions.

 

The visual below shows offenses from the Green Bay Packers to the New England Patriots.

 

The visual below shows offenses from the New Orleans Saints through the Washington Commanders.

 

Week 16 WR/CB Matchups: Best Weekly Matchup Scores

Before we examine the weekly matchup upgrades and downgrades, the visual below shows the receivers with the best weekly matchup scores.

 

Week 16 WR/CB Matchup Upgrades

Josh Downs vs. Jarvin Brownlee Jr.

In Weeks 10-15, Josh Downs ranks 56th in expected fantasy points per game (13.5) among receivers and tight ends with 25 routes run. Downs leads the team in expected fantasy points, with Michael Pittman Jr. nearly matching him in target rate (28 percent), yards per route run (2.26), and first-read target share (30.4 percent) in Weeks 10-15.

Downs and Pittman Jr. have displayed similar usage, though most fantasy managers prioritize Downs. The Titans use the fifth-highest rate of zone coverage, with the 10th-most Cover 3 and the highest rate of Cover 4.

Downs ranks fifth in target per route rate at 32 percent, with a 2.41 yards per route run versus zone. Pittman Jr. trails Downs, with a 26 percent target rate and 2.02 yards per route against zone coverage.

When we filter by Cover 3 and 4 coverages, Downs rocks the third-highest target per route rate (34 percent) and the 20th-ranked yards per route run (2.70) tied with DeVonta Smith.

Downs projects to face Jarvis Brownlee Jr., who allows the 12th-most fantasy points per route and the eighth-most yards per route run. The Titans' defense brought the 11th-highest pressure rate in Weeks 10-15. Though the individual matchup looks juicy, we mention the pressure rate because Anthony Richardson has been one of the worst quarterbacks when pressured.

The visual below shows the quarterback advanced stat leaders sorted by the worst adjusted yards per attempt against pressure, with a minimum of 25 dropbacks.

Among quarterbacks with 25 dropbacks against pressure, Richardson ranks 44th in adjusted yards per attempt (-0.34), 42nd in completion rate over expected (-14.8 percent), and 45th in adjusted completion rate (44.2 percent) out of 45 qualified quarterbacks.

It's worth noting Richardson's fifth-best pressure-to-sack rate (13.1 percent) when pressured since we would expect a mobile quarterback like him to evade pressure when needed.

We present Downs's downside scenario since quarterbacks impact a receiver's usage and fantasy value. Downs projects to have one of the best individual WR/CB matchups in Week 16, and we hope you survive into Week 17.

 

Jerry Jeudy vs. Josh Newton

In Weeks 10-15, Jerry Jeudy ranked 15th in expected fantasy points per game. The usage has been awesome for Jeudy, with a career-best season in Year 5 of his NFL career. Unfortunately, the Browns stated they're starting Dorian Thompson-Robinson at quarterback, meaning it will be a downgrade for the pass catchers.

The Bengals' defense uses a relatively even mixture of man coverage (No. 17) and zone (No. 16). Jeudy garners a 21 percent target per route rate and 2.19 yards per route run against zone coverage. When we filter by the second half of the season since Week 8, Jeudy rocks a 25 percent target rate and 3.10 yards per route versus zone.

The visual below shows the receiver separation data by coverage in Weeks 8-15, specifically for the Browns.

Jeudy hasn't been as effective against man coverage, evidenced by a 20 percent target rate and 1.83 yards per route run in Weeks 8-15. Browns' head coach Kevin Stefanksi has been scheming up targets for Jeudy, which we saw against the Broncos in Week 13 when some had concerns with Pat Surtain II as the projected matchup.

Jeudy projects to face Josh Newton, allowing the 17th-most yards per route run and the 35th-most fantasy points per route rate. Newton saw his playing time ramp up over the past handful of games with Dax Hill on injured reserve.

It's risky to roll with Jeudy in the semifinals of the fantasy football playoffs, especially considering Thompson-Robinson ranks last in adjusted yards per attempt and last in completion rate over expected among quarterbacks with 25 dropbacks.

Though it's a small sample, Thompson-Robinson hasn't been an efficient or league-average passer in adjusted yards per attempt, specifically to any pass catcher with 10 or more targets over the past two seasons.

Though Thompson-Robinson starts the game, he may not finish it, and who knows how long it goes before the team turns back to Jameis Winston. Even with the quarterback downgrade, there should be garbage time opportunities for Jeudy as 7.5-point underdogs against the Bengals. It might be worth gambling on Jeudy's volatility as a WR3 in Week 16. 

 

Christian Watson vs. Alontae Taylor

We discuss the Packers' run-heavy offense weekly, ranking first in neutral game script rush rate, leading to limited passing opportunities. The Packers unintentionally put a cap on their pass catcher targets to range from 4-6 in a given game.

In Weeks 10-15, Christian Watson leads the Packers' pass catchers in expected fantasy points per game at 9.6, ranking 67th among WR/TE with 25 routes. Watson is slightly ahead of Romeo Doubs at 8.9 expected fantasy points per game (No. 74) and Jayden Reed at 7.6 (No. 98) in Weeks 10-15.

The Saints use the 13th-highest rate of man coverage, the 10th-most Cover 1, and the third-highest rate of Cover 2. Against Cover 1, Watson dominates, evidenced by his 41 percent target rate (No. 3) and 4.57 yards per route run (No. 2) among WR/TE with 25 routes. Doubs is the next most efficient producer against Cover 1, with 1.93 yards per route via a lowly 17 percent target per route rate.

The visual below shows the receiving advanced stat leaders sorted by yards per route run against Cover 2 defenses, with a minimum of 25 routes.

Meanwhile, Watson boasts the 12th-best yards per route run against Cover 2, though his 20 percent target rate indicates he isn't the focal point against that type of coverage. The Packers' receiving leader in target rate versus Cover 2 is Reed at 27 percent, with an efficient 2.70 yards per route.

The visual below shows the team-level offensive and defensive line data in Weeks 10-15 sorted by pass rate over expectation allowed.

Since Week 10, the Saints rush defense has been tougher against the run, with the 13th-lowest adjusted yards before contact per attempt. Meanwhile, their pass defense allows the fourth-highest pass rate over expected behind the Buccaneers, Cowboys, and Packers.

Watson projects to face Alontae Taylor, who allows the fourth-most fantasy points per route and the second-most yards per route run. Taylor's teammate Ugo Amadi has been allowing similarly brutal numbers, making it a potentially fruitful matchup for Reed.

Though the Packers project at 14-point favorites, the Saints have kept the score close within seven points in five out of the past six games. We're banking on an efficient performance for Watson in his Week 16 WR/CB matchup as a boom-or-bust WR4.  

 

Week 16 WR/CB Matchup Downgrades

Xavier Worthy vs. Derek Stingley Jr.

Since Week 10, Xavier Worthy ranks 53rd in expected fantasy points per game (10.9). That's behind DeAndre Hopkins at 14.4 and Travis Kelce with 14.3 in Weeks 10-15. Interestingly, the Chiefs have the second-highest pass rate in neutral game scripts in Weeks 10-15 behind the Bengals.

We haven't seen the high-end version of Patrick Mahomes this season, especially in recent weeks. In Week 10-15, Mahomes ranks 21st in adjusted yards per attempt, 32nd in completion rate over expected, and 26th in adjusted completion rate.

The Texans use the third-highest rate of Cover 3, which Worthy struggles to produce against. That's evident in Worthy's 21 percent target per route rate and 1.06 yards per route run. This likely bodes better for Hopkins, averaging a 27 percent target rate and 2.49 yards per route run.

Worthy projects to face Derek Stingley Jr., who allows the seventh-lowest fantasy points per route and the sixth-fewest yards per route run. The Texans' rush defense has allowed the fourth-fewest adjusted yards before contact per attempt since Week 10. Theoretically, the Texans' defense should funnel toward the pass, ranking 12th in pass rate over expected allowed.

Worthy should struggle with or with Mahomes healthy in Week 16. If Carson Wentz starts, it adds to the downgraded WR/CB matchup.

 

Tank Dell vs. Trent McDuffie

Nico Collins has been a dominant piece of the Texans' passing offense before and after his injury. Since returning in Week 11, Collins ranks 20th (16.4) in expected fantasy points per game, with Tank Dell at 106th (6.6). Though we've seen flashes of Dell in 2024, he hasn't lived up to the rookie efficiency and expectations in Year 2.

The Chiefs use the sixth-highest rate of man coverage, the second-highest rate of Cover 0, and the fifth-most Cover 4. Dell has been decent against man coverage, with a 23 percent target rate and 2.13 yards per route run in 2024. However, Collins garnered a 35 percent target per route rate, with the 12th-highest yards per route run (3.69) among WR/TE against man coverage with 25 routes.

The visual below shows the receiver separation data by coverage in Weeks 8-15.

Interestingly, Dell ranks 26th in Average Separation Scores against man and seventh versus zone coverages in Weeks 8-15. However, the volume and efficiency haven't been in his favor. Maybe regression hits for Dell, but it's a matter of when which makes him a potential discounted receiver in 2025.

Unsurprisingly, Collins has the highest yards per route run against Cover 4, with Dell averaging under 1.00 (0.93). Dell projects to face Trent McDuffie, allowing the 21st-lowest fantasy points per route and the 12th-fewest yards per route run.

In the past five games, Dell reached 10 PPR in one of those contests, making him a receiver with a low floor and ceiling. Be cautious with Dell if one needs to rely on him in Week 16.

Best of luck this week in your playoff matchups!



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy football app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, rankings, starts/sits & more. All free!

More Fantasy Football Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Cole Custer

Is Cole Custer Worth Rostering For Talladega Lineups?
Ty Dillon

Is A Solid Value Option For Talladega DFS Lineups
Cody Ware

Is One Of The Safest Value DFS Options For Talladega Lineups
Hunter Greene

Lights Up Rockies For Eight Strikeouts Saturday
Adael Amador

Collects Three Hits And Home Run No. 1
Jarren Duran

Steals Home And Racks Up Three Hits
Framber Valdez

Tosses Complete Game In A Loss To The Royals
Michael Wacha

Spins Six Shutout Innings
Alan Trejo

Traded To The Rockies
Jackson Chourio

Nearly Hits For The Cycle
Robbie Ray

Records Eight Strikeouts
Jesús Luzardo

Jesus Luzardo Continues To Pitch Well
Seiya Suzuki

Drives In Three Runs
Edwin Díaz

Edwin Diaz Strikes Out The Side
Clay Holmes

Tosses Five Scoreless Innings
Jimmy Butler III

Ruled Out On Saturday
Isaiah Stewart

Questionable For Sunday's Game
Nolan Schanuel

Makes Early Exit On Saturday
Cam Smith

Heading To The Bench
Jaylen Brown

Questionable For Game 4
Logan Evans

To Make MLB Debut On Sunday
Jarred Kelenic

Takes A Seat On Saturday
Jrue Holiday

Won't Play On Sunday

Dolphins Select Quinn Ewers In Seventh Round
Logan Gilbert

Heading To 15-Day Injured List
Emmanuel Clase

Available As Closer For Game 2
Brenden Dillon

Out On Sunday
Mitchell Robinson

Questionable For Game 4 Versus Detroit
Luke Hughes

To Remain Out On Sunday
Michael Porter Jr.

Available On Saturday Night
Aliaksei Protas

Practices Fully On Saturday
Russell Westbrook

Won't Suit Up For Game 4
Gabriel Vilardi

A Game-Time Decision For Sunday
Oskar Bäck

Oskar Back A Game-Time Call On Saturday
Ross Colton

Unavailable Saturday
Miro Heiskanen

Remains Out Saturday
Riley Leonard

Drafted By Colts Saturday

Steelers Select Will Howard In Sixth Round Of NFL Draft

Eagles Add Kyle McCord To Quarterback Room

Miami Adds Ollie Gordon II To Backfield

Chargers Add KeAndre Lambert-Smith, Oronde Gadsden II To Offense

Colts Add DJ Giddens To Backfield
Michael Busch

Sitting On Saturday Versus Southpaw
Brandon Woodruff

"Really Tired" After Latest Rehab Start
Tyler Fitzgerald

Scratched On Saturday

Dallas Cowboys Draft Jaydon Blue In Fifth Round

49ers Add Jordan Watkins To Offense

Browns Trade Up To Select Shedeur Sanders In The Fifth Round
Sam Howell

Seahawks Trade Sam Howell To Vikings

Titans Continue To Address Offense, Select Elic Ayomanor

Chiefs Bolster Receiver Room With Jalen Royals

Commanders Add Jaylin Lane To Wide Receiver Room

Browns Select Dylan Sampson With 126th Pick

Titans Use Fourth-Round Pick On Gunnar Helm
Jarquez Hunter

Rams Select Jarquez Hunter In Fourth Round

Texans Trade Up For Woody Marks

Jets Select Arian Smith In Fourth Round

Panthers Select Trevor Etienne 114th Overall

Giants Take CFP Darling Cam Skattebo
Darius Garland

Won't Suit Up For Game 3
Darius Garland

Unavailable For Pregame Warmup
Jrue Holiday

Classified As "Day-To-Day"
Jacob Markstrom

Ends Losing Spell Friday
Cole Caufield

Collects Two Points In Friday's Win
Connor McDavid

Totals Three Points In Game 3 Win
Johnathan Kovacevic

Exits Early Friday
Sam Montembeault

Suffers Lower-Body Injury Friday
Logan Thompson

Exits Loss With Injury
Brandon Hagel

Suspended For Game 3
Brandin Podziemski

Not On Injury Report For Game 3
Jimmy Butler III

Warriors Optimistic About Jimmy Butler III Playing Saturday
Jae'Sean Tate

To Remain Out Saturday
Jock Landale

Unavailable For Game 3
Terry Rozier

Out On Saturday
Jrue Holiday

Ruled Out For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Orlando
Kevin Love

To Miss Saturday's Game
Jaylen Brown

Available For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Magic
Gary Payton II

Iffy For Saturday's Action
Jayson Tatum

Officially Available On Friday For Game 3 Against Magic
Luke Kennard

Questionable For Game 4 On Saturday
Aaron Ekblad

Available To Return Saturday
Aleksander Barkov

Questionable For Saturday
Gabriel Landeskog

Set For Larger Role In Game 4
Calvin Pickard

To Start Game 3 For Oilers
Jonas Siegenthaler

To Play Limited Minutes In Game 3
Luke Hughes

Remains Out On Friday
Patrik Laine

A Game-Time Decision Friday
Carlos Prates

Looks To Remain Undefeated In The UFC
Ian Machado Garry

Set For UFC Kansas City Main Event
Zhang Mingyang

Scheduled For Co-Main Event
Anthony Smith

Set For His Final UFC Bout
David Onama

Set For Featherweight Bout
Giga Chikadze

Looks To Bounce Back
Abus Magomedov

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Michel Pereira

Returns To Action At UFC Kansas City
Nicolas Dalby

An Underdog At UFC Kansas City
Randy Brown

A Favorite At UFC Kansas City
Andre Muniz

Set To Open Up UFC Kansas City Main Card
Ikram Aliskerov

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Cam Davis

Looking For Better Fortunes At TPC Louisiana
Adam Svensson

Making Third Apperence At Zurich Classic
Max Greyserman

Aiming For Similar Success At TPC Louisiana
Lee Hodges

A High-Upside Player In New Orleans
PGA

Nico Echavarria Looks To Ride Off Of Elite Putting In New Orleans
Gary Woodland

A Player Worth Watching In New Orleans
Max McGreevy

Returns To The Zurich Classic Of New Orleans
Rasmus Hojgaard

In Search Of Consistency Ahead Of Zurich Classic
Sam Stevens

A Boom-Or-Bust Candidate In New Orleans
Nicolai Hojgaard

Looking To Turn Season Around At Zurich Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Looks To Sway A Hot Putter In Teams Favor At Zurich Classic
Akshay Bhatia

Looking To Bounce Back At TPC Louisiana
Carson Young

Looks To Turn Things Around At TPC Louisiana
Erik Van Rooyen

Looking For Momentum In Louisiana
Andrew Novak

Making Start At TPC Louisiana After Near Miss At Harbour Town
Ben Griffin

Making Third Career Start At Zurich Classic
Taylor Moore

Competing With A New Teammate In New Orleans
Wyndham Clark

Making Return To New Orleans
Kurt Kitayama

Teeing It Up Again In New Orleans
Collin Morikawa

Back At Zurich Classic For Fifth Time
Thomas Detry

Making Third Appearance At New Orleans Team Event
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF