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Corbin analyzes fantasy football WR/CB matchups to find sleepers, targets, avoids for Week 16 of 2024. His WRs to upgrade or downgrade based on cornerback matchups data.
Welcome back to our WR/CB Matchups for Week 16 of the 2024 fantasy football season. Congrats to all of you that are still in the 2024 fantasy football playoffs, and marching towards a championship!
For those unfamiliar, this weekly series looks at fantasy football matchups for wide receivers versus the cornerbacks who are projected to cover them. The data we access for offensive and defensive players continues to skyrocket. Though we mainly focus on offensive players, the defensive matchups and coverages sometimes take a backseat. However, the goal of this weekly column is to cover the potential wide receiver upgrades and downgrades based on the weekly WR/CB matchups for fantasy football.
Most teams mix in defensive backs all over the field, with very few cornerbacks shadowing an opposing top receiver. The main takeaway involves not overreacting to a weaker matchup if the receiver is a high-end to near-elite target earner and producer in their respective offense. Based on the weekly matchups, we'll use various tools to find several matchup upgrades and downgrades for the opposing receivers.
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WR vs. CB Chart Details
Readers have asked for the WR/CB Matchup Chart again in 2024; now, you can find it below! While it isn't the same chart from the past, we'll have the most favorable and unfavorable matchups based on several metrics. We used weighted averages to create an adjusted offensive and defensive score. Some inputs include yards per route run, fantasy points per route run, and targets per route run.
We'll have a weekly matchup score with those adjusted scores by subtracting the defensive from the offensive number. The caveat would be the limited data due to injured offensive and defensive players, possibly skewing the matchups to be more or less favorable. Since this is a newer process, there might be some slight tweaks along the way.
With more data from the 2024 season, we'll learn what matchups to target and ones to temper expectations.
WR/CB Matchups Chart: Alphabetical
Below, we'll see the WR/CB matchups for Week 16 sorted alphabetically. The red numbers indicate a more challenging matchup for the receiver, and the green numbers mean favorable matchups (or the defender allows a high rate of the given metric).
The visual below shows offenses from the Arizona Cardinals to the Detroit Lions.
The visual below shows offenses from the Green Bay Packers to the New England Patriots.
The visual below shows offenses from the New Orleans Saints through the Washington Commanders.
Week 16 WR/CB Matchups: Best Weekly Matchup Scores
Before we examine the weekly matchup upgrades and downgrades, the visual below shows the receivers with the best weekly matchup scores.
Week 16 WR/CB Matchup Upgrades
Josh Downs vs. Jarvin Brownlee Jr.
In Weeks 10-15, Josh Downs ranks 56th in expected fantasy points per game (13.5) among receivers and tight ends with 25 routes run. Downs leads the team in expected fantasy points, with Michael Pittman Jr. nearly matching him in target rate (28 percent), yards per route run (2.26), and first-read target share (30.4 percent) in Weeks 10-15.
Downs and Pittman Jr. have displayed similar usage, though most fantasy managers prioritize Downs. The Titans use the fifth-highest rate of zone coverage, with the 10th-most Cover 3 and the highest rate of Cover 4.
Downs ranks fifth in target per route rate at 32 percent, with a 2.41 yards per route run versus zone. Pittman Jr. trails Downs, with a 26 percent target rate and 2.02 yards per route against zone coverage.
When we filter by Cover 3 and 4 coverages, Downs rocks the third-highest target per route rate (34 percent) and the 20th-ranked yards per route run (2.70) tied with DeVonta Smith.
Downs projects to face Jarvis Brownlee Jr., who allows the 12th-most fantasy points per route and the eighth-most yards per route run. The Titans' defense brought the 11th-highest pressure rate in Weeks 10-15. Though the individual matchup looks juicy, we mention the pressure rate because Anthony Richardson has been one of the worst quarterbacks when pressured.
The visual below shows the quarterback advanced stat leaders sorted by the worst adjusted yards per attempt against pressure, with a minimum of 25 dropbacks.
Among quarterbacks with 25 dropbacks against pressure, Richardson ranks 44th in adjusted yards per attempt (-0.34), 42nd in completion rate over expected (-14.8 percent), and 45th in adjusted completion rate (44.2 percent) out of 45 qualified quarterbacks.
It's worth noting Richardson's fifth-best pressure-to-sack rate (13.1 percent) when pressured since we would expect a mobile quarterback like him to evade pressure when needed.
We present Downs's downside scenario since quarterbacks impact a receiver's usage and fantasy value. Downs projects to have one of the best individual WR/CB matchups in Week 16, and we hope you survive into Week 17.
Jerry Jeudy vs. Josh Newton
In Weeks 10-15, Jerry Jeudy ranked 15th in expected fantasy points per game. The usage has been awesome for Jeudy, with a career-best season in Year 5 of his NFL career. Unfortunately, the Browns stated they're starting Dorian Thompson-Robinson at quarterback, meaning it will be a downgrade for the pass catchers.
The Bengals' defense uses a relatively even mixture of man coverage (No. 17) and zone (No. 16). Jeudy garners a 21 percent target per route rate and 2.19 yards per route run against zone coverage. When we filter by the second half of the season since Week 8, Jeudy rocks a 25 percent target rate and 3.10 yards per route versus zone.
The visual below shows the receiver separation data by coverage in Weeks 8-15, specifically for the Browns.
Jeudy hasn't been as effective against man coverage, evidenced by a 20 percent target rate and 1.83 yards per route run in Weeks 8-15. Browns' head coach Kevin Stefanksi has been scheming up targets for Jeudy, which we saw against the Broncos in Week 13 when some had concerns with Pat Surtain II as the projected matchup.
Jeudy projects to face Josh Newton, allowing the 17th-most yards per route run and the 35th-most fantasy points per route rate. Newton saw his playing time ramp up over the past handful of games with Dax Hill on injured reserve.
It's risky to roll with Jeudy in the semifinals of the fantasy football playoffs, especially considering Thompson-Robinson ranks last in adjusted yards per attempt and last in completion rate over expected among quarterbacks with 25 dropbacks.
Though it's a small sample, Thompson-Robinson hasn't been an efficient or league-average passer in adjusted yards per attempt, specifically to any pass catcher with 10 or more targets over the past two seasons.
Though Thompson-Robinson starts the game, he may not finish it, and who knows how long it goes before the team turns back to Jameis Winston. Even with the quarterback downgrade, there should be garbage time opportunities for Jeudy as 7.5-point underdogs against the Bengals. It might be worth gambling on Jeudy's volatility as a WR3 in Week 16.
Christian Watson vs. Alontae Taylor
We discuss the Packers' run-heavy offense weekly, ranking first in neutral game script rush rate, leading to limited passing opportunities. The Packers unintentionally put a cap on their pass catcher targets to range from 4-6 in a given game.
In Weeks 10-15, Christian Watson leads the Packers' pass catchers in expected fantasy points per game at 9.6, ranking 67th among WR/TE with 25 routes. Watson is slightly ahead of Romeo Doubs at 8.9 expected fantasy points per game (No. 74) and Jayden Reed at 7.6 (No. 98) in Weeks 10-15.
The Saints use the 13th-highest rate of man coverage, the 10th-most Cover 1, and the third-highest rate of Cover 2. Against Cover 1, Watson dominates, evidenced by his 41 percent target rate (No. 3) and 4.57 yards per route run (No. 2) among WR/TE with 25 routes. Doubs is the next most efficient producer against Cover 1, with 1.93 yards per route via a lowly 17 percent target per route rate.
The visual below shows the receiving advanced stat leaders sorted by yards per route run against Cover 2 defenses, with a minimum of 25 routes.
Meanwhile, Watson boasts the 12th-best yards per route run against Cover 2, though his 20 percent target rate indicates he isn't the focal point against that type of coverage. The Packers' receiving leader in target rate versus Cover 2 is Reed at 27 percent, with an efficient 2.70 yards per route.
The visual below shows the team-level offensive and defensive line data in Weeks 10-15 sorted by pass rate over expectation allowed.
Since Week 10, the Saints rush defense has been tougher against the run, with the 13th-lowest adjusted yards before contact per attempt. Meanwhile, their pass defense allows the fourth-highest pass rate over expected behind the Buccaneers, Cowboys, and Packers.
Watson projects to face Alontae Taylor, who allows the fourth-most fantasy points per route and the second-most yards per route run. Taylor's teammate Ugo Amadi has been allowing similarly brutal numbers, making it a potentially fruitful matchup for Reed.
Though the Packers project at 14-point favorites, the Saints have kept the score close within seven points in five out of the past six games. We're banking on an efficient performance for Watson in his Week 16 WR/CB matchup as a boom-or-bust WR4.
Week 16 WR/CB Matchup Downgrades
Xavier Worthy vs. Derek Stingley Jr.
Since Week 10, Xavier Worthy ranks 53rd in expected fantasy points per game (10.9). That's behind DeAndre Hopkins at 14.4 and Travis Kelce with 14.3 in Weeks 10-15. Interestingly, the Chiefs have the second-highest pass rate in neutral game scripts in Weeks 10-15 behind the Bengals.
We haven't seen the high-end version of Patrick Mahomes this season, especially in recent weeks. In Week 10-15, Mahomes ranks 21st in adjusted yards per attempt, 32nd in completion rate over expected, and 26th in adjusted completion rate.
The Texans use the third-highest rate of Cover 3, which Worthy struggles to produce against. That's evident in Worthy's 21 percent target per route rate and 1.06 yards per route run. This likely bodes better for Hopkins, averaging a 27 percent target rate and 2.49 yards per route run.
Worthy projects to face Derek Stingley Jr., who allows the seventh-lowest fantasy points per route and the sixth-fewest yards per route run. The Texans' rush defense has allowed the fourth-fewest adjusted yards before contact per attempt since Week 10. Theoretically, the Texans' defense should funnel toward the pass, ranking 12th in pass rate over expected allowed.
Worthy should struggle with or with Mahomes healthy in Week 16. If Carson Wentz starts, it adds to the downgraded WR/CB matchup.
Tank Dell vs. Trent McDuffie
Nico Collins has been a dominant piece of the Texans' passing offense before and after his injury. Since returning in Week 11, Collins ranks 20th (16.4) in expected fantasy points per game, with Tank Dell at 106th (6.6). Though we've seen flashes of Dell in 2024, he hasn't lived up to the rookie efficiency and expectations in Year 2.
The Chiefs use the sixth-highest rate of man coverage, the second-highest rate of Cover 0, and the fifth-most Cover 4. Dell has been decent against man coverage, with a 23 percent target rate and 2.13 yards per route run in 2024. However, Collins garnered a 35 percent target per route rate, with the 12th-highest yards per route run (3.69) among WR/TE against man coverage with 25 routes.
The visual below shows the receiver separation data by coverage in Weeks 8-15.
Interestingly, Dell ranks 26th in Average Separation Scores against man and seventh versus zone coverages in Weeks 8-15. However, the volume and efficiency haven't been in his favor. Maybe regression hits for Dell, but it's a matter of when which makes him a potential discounted receiver in 2025.
Unsurprisingly, Collins has the highest yards per route run against Cover 4, with Dell averaging under 1.00 (0.93). Dell projects to face Trent McDuffie, allowing the 21st-lowest fantasy points per route and the 12th-fewest yards per route run.
In the past five games, Dell reached 10 PPR in one of those contests, making him a receiver with a low floor and ceiling. Be cautious with Dell if one needs to rely on him in Week 16.
Best of luck this week in your playoff matchups!
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