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Corbin analyzes fantasy football WR/CB matchups to find sleepers, targets, avoids for Week 13 of 2024. His WRs to upgrade or downgrade based on cornerback matchups data.
Welcome back to our WR/CB Matchups for Week 13 of the 2024 fantasy football season. For those unfamiliar, this weekly series looks at fantasy football matchups for wide receivers versus the cornerbacks who are projected to cover them.
The data we access for offensive and defensive players continues to skyrocket. Though we mainly focus on offensive players, the defensive matchups and coverages sometimes take a backseat. However, the goal of this weekly column is to cover the potential wide receiver upgrades and downgrades based on the weekly WR/CB matchups for fantasy football.
Most teams mix in defensive backs all over the field, with very few cornerbacks shadowing an opposing top receiver. The main takeaway involves not overreacting to a weaker matchup if the receiver is a high-end to near-elite target earner and producer in their respective offense. Based on the weekly matchups, we'll use various tools to find several matchup upgrades and downgrades for the opposing receivers. With more data from the 2024 season, we'll learn what matchups to target and ones to temper expectations.
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WR vs. CB Chart Details
Readers have asked for the WR/CB Matchup Chart again in 2024; now, you can find it below! While it isn't the same chart from the past, we'll have the most favorable and unfavorable matchups based on several metrics. We used weighted averages to create an adjusted offensive and defensive score. Some inputs include yards per route run, fantasy points per route run, and targets per route run.
We'll have a weekly matchup score with those adjusted scores by subtracting the defensive from the offensive number. The caveat would be the limited data due to injured offensive and defensive players, possibly skewing the matchups to be more or less favorable. Since this is a newer process, there might be some slight tweaks along the way.
WR/CB Matchups Chart: Alphabetical
Below, we'll see the WR/CB matchups for Week 13 sorted alphabetically. The red numbers indicate a more challenging matchup for the receiver, and the green numbers mean favorable matchups (or the defender allows a high rate of the given metric).
Since we have games on Thursday and Friday in Week 13, the blue shades note the Thanksgiving games with the light red being the Friday game against the Chiefs and Raiders.
The visual below shows the Arizona to Denver offenses.
The visual below shows Detroit to Miami.
The visual below shows the Vikings through the Eagles.
Finally, the Pittsburgh Steelers through the Washington Commanders can be seen below.
Week 13 WR/CB Matchups: Best Weekly Matchup Scores
Before we examine the weekly matchup upgrades and downgrades, the visual below shows the receivers with the best weekly matchup scores.
Week 13 WR/CB Matchup Upgrades
Terry McLaurin vs. Jarvis Brownlee Jr.
In Weeks 8-12, Terry McLaurin ranks 60th in expected fantasy points per game among tight ends and receivers with 10 routes run. McLaurin has been scoring over three fantasy points more than his expected numbers, evidenced by his 14.6 PPR/G in Weeks 8-12. That's borderline WR2/3 usage metrics, with a favorable matchup upcoming.
The visual below shows the advanced stats for the Commanders' receivers and tight ends versus zone coverage.
The Titans use the fifth-highest rate of zone coverage at 75.7 percent, with the most Cover 4. Against zone coverage, McLaurin averages a 22 percent target per route rate with 2.92 yards per route run. Though he doesn't lead the team in target rate, he rocks the highest yards per route when facing zone coverage.
The visual below shows the yards per route run leaders against zone coverages, with at least a 20 percent route rate. McLaurin ranks 12th in yards per route run versus zone coverage.
When we filter down to Cover 4, McLaurin ranks fourth on the team in target rate at 19 percent, with a mediocre 1.62 yards per route run. The Titans have been relatively stout against the run, with the ninth-lowest adjusted yards before contact per attempt. That led to the 11th-highest pass rate over expected for opposing offenses facing the Titans.
The Titans have been beatable against outside receivers like McLaurin, with the 11th-most PPR/G. Jarvis Brownlee Jr. projects to face McLaurin, allowing the 14th-most fantasy points per route and the ninth-most yards per route run.
Unfortunately, the top wide receivers against the Titans haven't fared well. That's evident in the top receivers averaging six targets, 3.8 receptions, 45.2 receiving yards, and 14.3 PPR/G over the past five contests. With Brian Robinson Jr. battling an ankle injury and Austin Ekeler recovering from a concussion, the Commanders may need to rely on Jeremy McNichols and the passing game against the Titans.
Though we have zero bye weeks in Week 13, McLaurin should be valued as a WR3 with upside in the Commanders' above-average offense. That's especially true considering the individual WR/CB matchup.
Courtland Sutton vs. Martin Emerson Jr. and Devaughn Vele vs. Greg Newsome II
The Broncos passing offense has been surging since Week 5, ranking eighth in EPA per dropback and 15th in passing success rate. Courtland Sutton became a must-start option, ranking fourth in expected fantasy points per game in Weeks 8-12.
The tricky part with the other Broncos' pass catchers involves the rotation at receiver, with Devaughn Vele, Lil'Jordan Humphrey, and Troy Franklin running around 40-50 percent of the routes. Sean Payton likes to find players in defined roles, including having Marvin Mims Jr. lining up in the backfield sometimes for a high 31 percent targets per route rate.
Vele and Sutton have two of the best WR/CB matchups in Week 13 against the Browns, with their slot corner being one of the worst. Greg Newsome II allows the ninth-most fantasy points per route and the 10th-most yards per route run.
The Browns play the seventh-highest rate of man coverage and the fourth-highest rate of Cover 1. Unfortunately, Vele hasn't been winning against man coverage, with an 18 percent target rate and 0.44 yards per route run.
Vele's WR4/5-type usage, averaging eight expected fantasy points per game (No. 71) should give him a floor of 8-10 fantasy points in PPR scoring. Furthermore, Nix has been targeting Vele at a higher rate while converting those targets into first downs.
The visual below shows the receiving advanced stat leaders against man coverage sorted by yards per route run, with Sutton ranking 17th among receivers and tight ends with a 20 percent route rate.
Though Vele hasn't been winning against man coverage, Sutton crushes it. That's evident in Sutton's 29 percent target rate and 2.95 yards per route run versus man, with a better yards per route run (3.52) against Cover 1, which the Browns use at a high rate.
The one concerning factor involves the Browns bringing pressure at the highest rate. Nix hasn't been great against pressure, ranking 37th in adjusted yards per attempt (1.06) and 45th in completion rate over expected. However, Nix avoids pressure becoming sacks, with the seventh-best pressure-to-sack rate (14 percent) behind Brock Purdy.
Sutton is a must-start receiver as a high-end WR2 or borderline WR1, with Vele as a WR4/5 and double-digit fantasy points being a probable outcome.
Tank Dell vs. Ronald Darby
Since Nico Collins returned, he averaged 16.4 expected fantasy points per game, with Tank Dell at 9.1 in Weeks 11-12. Collins moved back into the elite target earner range, with a 31 percent target rate and 20 percent for Dell. Meanwhile, Collins bests Dell in first-read target share in Weeks 11-12 (26.7 percent vs. 20 percent).
The Texans used a run-heavy offense in neutral game scripts, with the fourth-highest rush rate (51 percent) without Collins in Weeks 6-10. However, the Texans shifted to being pass-heavy in Weeks 11-12, ranking first in pass rate (69 percent) with Collins healthy.
Though Dell hasn't been earning targets at a high rate, he projects to face Ronald Darby, allowing the sixth-most fantasy points per route and the fourth-highest yards per route run. The Jaguars have been allowing the fifth-most fantasy points to receivers out wide, where Collins and Dell play often.
This could be Dell's breakout game since the Jaguars have been running man coverage at the second-highest rate while bleeding the fifth-most fantasy points per dropback.
Dell garners a 25 percent target per route rate and 2.55 yards per route run against man coverage. Collins also dominates man coverage, with a 32 percent target rate and the sixth-highest yards per route run. The Week 13 WR/CB matchup for the Texans' receivers is a friendly one, and Dell should be a part of the action, as a WR3 with WR2-type upside.
Jordan Addison vs. Starling Thomas V
Jordan Addison outperformed Justin Jefferson while having the near-identical expected fantasy points per game in Weeks 11-12. Addison's usage changed to be more like Jefferson's with a higher target rate, air yards share, and first-read targets.
We knew the talent Addison's usage and production could be within the range of outcomes for him. However, some might question Addison's efficiency with an elite talent like Jefferson.
The Cardinals have been using zone coverage at the 12th-highest rate, with the seventh-highest rate of Cover 3. Since Week 8, the Cardinals ran two high safety coverages at the sixth-highest rate. Teams that use two high looks try to prevent explosive plays.
Addison has performed slightly better against zone coverages, with 2.35 yards per route compared to 1.52 versus man. The Vikings use Addison in a downfield role, with a 16.0 average target depth, while producing 2.07 yards per route against two high safeties.
While that might not provide optimism for Addison's outlook in Week 13, he averaged 3.38 yards per route run (No. 13), with a 31 percent targets per route rate (No. 10) on a massive 48.5 percent air yards share (No. 4) when facing two high safeties in Weeks 11-12.
It might be more of a neutral than WR/CB matchup upgrade for Addison, but the past two weeks look like a positive trend to have confidence in him in Week 13.
Week 13 WR/CB Matchup Downgrades
Rashod Bateman vs. Quinyon Mitchell
Rashod Bateman made a contested catch in Week 12 against the Chargers for a 40-yard touchdown. Unfortunately, it's unreliable to produce mainly via big plays and touchdowns when the volume remains low for Bateman. Zay Flowers is the highest target earner while Bateman ranks fourth in team targets per route behind Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely in Weeks 8-12.
That's partly due to the Ravens ranking 22nd in neutral game script pass rate at 52 percent, tying them with the Colts and Lions. However, the Ravens have been throwing more in neutral game scripts since Week 8, with a 56 percent pass rate.
The Eagles tend to mix up their coverages, with the 16th-most Cover 1 (22.8 percent), 13th-most Cover 3 (31.3 percent), and ninth-most Cover 4 (18.4 percent). They invested in their defense in 2024, especially in the secondary, with their first-round pick Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean in the second round.
The visual below shows the team-level coverage data including fantasy points allowed per dropback against man and zone coverages sorted by the lowest fantasy points allowed versus zone in Weeks 8-12.
The Eagles have been one of the toughest matchups for opposing passing offenses, with the eighth-lowest fantasy points per dropback against man coverage and the third-fewest via zone. Mitchell has been a key piece of the Eagles' secondary, allowing the fourth-fewest fantasy points per route and the 17th-lowest yards per route run.
Bateman averages a 14 percent target rate and 1.24 yards per route run when facing Cover 1, 3, and 4, which the Eagles run the most often. He has been slightly more productive against man coverage, with 2.08 yards per route compared to 1.57 yards per route run versus zone coverage.
The Ravens and Eagles game projects for the highest over/under (50.5 to 51.5), suggesting it could be a shootout. However, relying on efficiency and low volume from Bateman makes it a downgraded Week 13 WR/CB matchup, especially since Mitchell has been one of the best, similar to Pat Surtain II.
Dontayvion Wicks vs. Storm Duck
In Weeks 8-12, the Packers have become a run-heavy offense, with the highest rush rate in neutral game scripts. They're tied with the Eagles, which we've seen be frustrating for their pass catchers besides A.J. Brown. That's similar to how the Packers have been operating with the lower neutral script pass rates, yet they distribute the targets between 4-5 players.
Since Week 8, the Packers' target leaders include Christian Watson with five targets per game and a 19 percent target share, with Romeo Doubs close behind with 4.8 targets per game and an 18 percent share. Then we have Jayden Reed (3.5), Tucker Kraft (3.2), and Josh Jacobs (2.8) averaging 3-3.5 targets per game.
Dontayvion Wicks had the fifth-highest route rate among Packers' receivers and tight ends, but projects to earn more playing time with Doubs ruled out with a concussion.
The Dolphins run zone coverage at the 11th-highest rate, with 10th-most Cover 3. Wicks has earned targets at a higher rate with a 25 percent target per route run rate yet 1.64 yards per route. Against Cover 3, Wicks garners a 29 percent target and a solid 2.31 yards per route.
The visual below shows the advanced stats for the Packers' wide receivers and tight ends against zone coverage.
Meanwhile, Reed averages the 10th-highest yards per route at 3.91 yards per route and a 21 percent target rate against Cover 3, with the fourth-highest yards per route (3.36) versus zone coverage. That said, the Dolphins matchup favors Reed, who crushes zone coverage, though the Packers use a run-heavy offense.
The individual cornerback matchup might be noisy because Wicks projects to face Storm Duck, who allows the fifth-lowest fantasy points per route and fourth-lowest yards per route. That puts Duck behind cornerbacks like Surtain, Christian Benford, and Derek Stingley Jr., who have been three of the better corners.
Since the Dolphins rank 20th in team coverage grades, it might be more of a neutral matchup for Wicks. However, considering the low neutral script pass rates, we'll want to downgrade Wicks in Week 13 against Duck and the Dolphins' secondary.
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