WR/CB Matchups to Target and Downgrade - Week 13

December 5, 2021

Andrew Lalama evaluates key WR/CB matchups through his cornerback ratings chart to find top wide receivers to target or avoid in Week 13 fantasy football lineups.

Welcome to lucky number Week 13 of the WR/CB Matchup chart. The Week 12 article had some good calls with sneaky suggestions of Kendrick Bourne, Van Jefferson, Darnell Mooney, and Hunter Renfrow. While the chart did show slate-breaker Jaylen Waddle in red, the article did suggest to ignore his matchup. On the flip side, using the matchup chart while building DFS lineups may have taken you away from some of the chalkiest bust WRs on the slate. Chris Godwin and Michael Pittman Jr. were both in bad spots according to the chart and neither did much. While the numbers on the chart are derived from full-season stats, this week's article will touch on some recent trends as well. For example, with Kristian Fulton back the Titans are no longer a cake matchup for opposing WR1s. On the flip side, the Rams and Raiders have both struggled against slots in recent weeks, regressing from their early-season performance.

Creating the weekly matchup chart has been more challenging than usual this year due to the fact that most teams are moving their WRs around more than they ever have. It is difficult to pinpoint which CB each WR will be matched up against. The chart is designed to give a 1-vs.-1 matchup for each player, but the reality is that most NFL WRs will see a mix of all the DBs they face each week. The chart is best used to understand how teams are defending outside versus inside receivers, if teams are shadowing, and how much emphasis they put on slowing down the opposing WR1.

While matchups do matter and every piece of information can give you an edge, it is important to understand that WR skill level and target share are more predictive than matchup in many cases. Blindly following the chart is not recommended, but it can be useful in making tough lineup decisions between two WRs close in skill level. The chart is best used to understand the context of matchups overall, not predict outcomes.

WR vs. CB Chart Details

The CB Matchup Chart below is a snapshot of each team's cornerback group as it relates to allowing fantasy points. There are inherent flaws within the data compilation of cornerback play. The first is the fact that quantifying a 1-on-1 matchup in an NFL game is unfair because of zone coverages, mental errors, certain passing concepts, and a million other things. Assigning fantasy points against a cornerback isn't a perfect science.

The purpose of this chart is to give more of a general sense of how defenses are handling opposing WR groups rather than identifying exactly where, when, and how every single encounter happened. Another factor to consider is that players are listed based on where they line up the majority of the time. Most receivers do not line up on the right side on every single snap, so they won't be matched up with the same CB on every snap.

The "Rtng" column is the rating of each cornerback based on film study and analytics. The lower a player is graded, the easier the matchup for the WR, so low ratings are green and high ratings are red. The "PPGA" is the number of fantasy points per game that the player has given up. A name in blue means the corner could possibly shadow the WR1. A name in red means that the player is dealing with an injury. WRs highlighted in bright green have an easy matchup. WRs highlighted in light red have a tough matchup. The chart is a useful tool, but should not be used as a start/sit cheatsheet.

Cornerback Ratings and Matchups Chart - Week 13

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WR/CB Matchups to Target

At first glance, the chart shows D.K. Metcalf as having an easier matchup than Tyler Lockett. However, when zooming in to recent trends, the 49ers have actually gotten worse against RWRs and better against LWRs as the season has progressed. The 49ers held Justin Jefferson to just four catches last week, but gave up a huge game to Adam Thielen. I didn't highlight Metcalf or Lockett's matchup in part due to how putrid the Seahawks' offense has looked since Russell Wilson came back, but recent trends suggest Lockett could be in for a bigger day. Keep in mind that Metcalf is likely to get somewhat of the squeaky wheel treatment after being largely ignored at Pete Carroll's funeral on Monday night.

Tom Brady's WRs also warrant a closer look in this week's article. While I have both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin highlighted, I think it's very likely that the Falcons choose to put A.J. Terrell on one of the Bucs' star WRs. Godwin plays the slot more than any other Bucs WR, but he also plays a lot of snaps on the outside. There's no way to predict exactly how Terrell's matchups will shake out, but he will be a factor on a play-by-play basis. Evans and Godwin are still great plays regardless.

Terry McLaurin didn't do much against D.J. Reed and the Seahawks on Monday night, but he's lined up for a cake matchup against Brandon Facyson and the Raiders this week. Facyson is one of the worst starting corners in the NFL.

Kenny Golladay has been a massive bust and now has Mike Glennon as his starting QB. I'm only mentioning him because the Dolphins give up the second-most FPPG to opposing WR1s. He's a thin play at best.

Patrick Peterson is on the Covid list and may not play on Sunday, which means Cameron Dantzler will likely take over at RCB for the Vikings. Dantzler has talent but the Vikes had been terrible against LWRs even with Peterson manning the right side. Josh Reynolds is worth a flier based on matchup as the WR1 in Detroit.

DeVonta Smith is in a prime spot this week. Not only will Smith see the easy coverage of Javelin Guidry, but he's likely to get the squeaky-wheel treatment as well. Smith was justifiably upset after receiving just four targets last week against the Giants. The Jets have gotten progressively worse against WR1s all season.

The Washington Football Team defense is trending upwards after a brutal start to the season. At first glance it may look like Bryan Edwards, DeSean Jackson, and Hunter Renfrow have great matchups, but Washington has been much tougher in recent weeks against all receivers. At least one Las Vegas WR will likely receive enough volume to produce, but the matchup just isn't as easy at it seems.

The Bears have funneled production to RWRs and slots all year. That's good news for Christian Kirk, who may get his starting QB back. Rondale Moore is a rookie receiver coming off a bye and an 11-target game. He's also a low-floor, high-ceiling option who would look better if DeAndre Hopkins sits. Even if Hopkins plays, Moore is viable.

Speaking of rookies, Nico Collins is playing a majority of snaps for the Texans as their primary RWR and this week gets the Colts, who have given up the most FPPG to opposing RWRs this season. Collins hasn't done much of anything but keep in mind that rookie WRs typically produce better as the season goes on.

Taysom Hill is reportedly starting on Thursday Night, which usually means a downgrade for all Saints WRs. However, Tre'Quan Smith does have a plus matchup. It wouldn't shock me to see some high value targets for Smith mixed in with a run-heavy gameplan.

Jaylen Waddle is coming off a monster game against a good secondary, and this week gets the Giants, who just lost their slot corner to an injury. I expect Julian Love to cover the slot, which is an advantageous matchup for Waddle. Keep in mind that Waddle moves around the formation a lot and that the Giants may shadow him with Adoree Jackson or James Bradberry. Waddle is a smash play regardless.

Finally, Cooper Kupp gets the Jaguars, who have struggled against slots all year. Kupp is good at catching footballs and scoring touchdowns. Follow me on Twitter @draft32teams for more in-depth fantasy and NFL Draft analysis.

WR/CB Matchups to Downgrade

We start on Thursday Night, when Trevon Diggs and the Cowboys take on Taysom Hill and the Saints. Marquez Callaway has been one of the most underwhelming WR1s in the league and now gets the least-polished passer in the league as his QB. The Cowboys have been stellar against WR1s all year, so I don't expect much from Callaway here.

The Eagles continue to shut down outside receivers and this week welcome the Jets, who have been a poor offense with Zach Wilson at QB. Elijah Moore may play enough slot snaps to get some advantageous matchups, but both he and Corey Davis get downgrades against Steven Nelson and possible All-Pro Darius Slay.

Kendrick Bourne has been fantastic as the primary RWR for Mac Jones and the Patriots and is coming off a big-time performance last week against the Titans. Unfortunately he has a much tougher matchup against Levi Wallace in this week's marquee matchup in Buffalo. Tre'Davious White being out does make the Bills secondary more vulnerable, but Wallace, Taron Johnson, and the Bills' safeties are still very good.

Speaking of Taron Johnson, he should see plenty of Jakobi Meyers on Monday Night. It's a tough matchup for the dependable slot receiver.

On the other side of that game, the Patriots have an interesting decision to make. Do they shadow Stefon Diggs with J.C. Jackson? Or do they let Diggs move around and give safety help? Season-long trends give Emmanuel Sanders the tough matchup as the WR2, but be aware that Jackson shadowing Diggs could open things up for secondary Bills WRs. It's not a great matchup for anyone as the Pats have been terrific against the pass.

Rashad Fenton has been playing well as the primary LCB for the Chiefs. Kansas City's defense overall is trending in the right direction. It's bad news for Tim Patrick.

Mike Hilton had a pick-six against his old team last week and has been playing well all year. Keenan Allen is generally somewhat uncoverable but this isn't an easy matchup for him.

On the flip side of that nickel matchup, Tyler Boyd will see the sticky coverage of Chris Harris Jr., who has been a premiere slot corner throughout his career. The Chargers give up the second-fewest FPPG to opposing slots this year.

Thanks for reading and good luck this week.

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