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Corbin analyzes fantasy football WR/CB matchups to find sleepers, targets, avoids for Week 1 of 2024. His WRs to upgrade based on cornerback matchups data.
The data we access for offensive and defensive players continues to skyrocket. Though we mainly focus on offensive players, the defensive matchups and coverages sometimes take a backseat. However, the goal of this weekly column is to cover the potential wide receiver upgrades and downgrades based on the weekly WR/CB matchups for fantasy football.
There has been a rise in zone coverages across the league, with 23 teams using zone defense over 65 percent of the time. Most teams mix in defensive backs all over the field, with very few cornerbacks shadowing an opposing top receiver. The main takeaway involves not overreacting to a weaker matchup if the receiver is a high-end to near-elite target earner and producer in their respective offense.
Based on the Week 1 matchups, we'll use various tools from PlayerProfiler, FantasyPoints, and more to find several matchup upgrades and downgrades for the opposing receivers. With more data from the 2024 season, we'll learn what matchups to target and ones to temper expectations.
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WR/CB Matchups To Upgrade
The Eagles' Receivers Against the Packers
There has been talk about DeVonta Smith playing more in the slot with the Eagles. That could benefit him and A.J. Brown in their Week 1 matchup against the Packers. We would not be fading Brown and Smith, but the matchup is juicy. In FantasyPoints' new Average Separation Score, Brown ranks 14th among receivers, running 25 routes against zone and 22nd versus zone defenses.
The visual below shows the receiving leaders in zone separation score.
The Packers shift their defensive backs to play on both sides of the field, and Eric Stokes allows the most fantasy points per route run. Among defensive backs defending at least five routes per game, Stokes allowed the ninth-most fantasy points per coverage snap. Since Brown is an elite receiver and ranks eighth in fantasy points per route run, the Eagles should feast in the passing game.
Smith ran slot routes 33 percent of the time last season, but the coaching staff and Smith talked about adding opportunities in 2024. That's notable because the Packers' primary slot cornerback was Keisean Nixon, playing the second-highest percentage of snaps lined up in the slot among all defensive backs.
Nixon allowed a mediocre 0.25 fantasy points per coverage snap and ranked 140th out of 158 defensive backs in PlayerProfiler's Coverage Rating with 10 or more coverage snaps per game in 2023.
Coverage Rating combines target rate, pass breakups, catch rate, and fantasy points per snap into one metric. The higher the Coverage Rating, the better, with Nixon at +8.1 compared to the leaders at +30 or higher.
If Smith plays more on the outside than in the slot in Week 1, he might line up against Jaire Alexander for a decent chunk of snaps. Alexander has been slightly worse than his defensive back teammates, averaging 0.26 fantasy points allowed per cover snap and an 11.5 Coverage Rating (No. 129 out of 158).
The Packers play mostly zone defense at 72.8 percent, ranking 16th. Alexander posted better coverage metrics in the past, so maybe his multiple injuries (back, shoulder) lingered and negatively impacted him in 2023.
The deep-league option to monitor would be newly acquired receiver Jahan Dotson. Dotson ran a route in the slot 42.1 percent of the time with the Commanders after primarily playing outside in his rookie year at 73.7 percent. As we noted with Smith, Nixon could cover Dotson since he's their primary slot corner.
The downside scenario involves Dotson continuing to struggle to earn targets, with a 13 percent target per route run rate, while seeing his average depth of target fall from 15.4 (2022) to 10 (2023). However, Dotson can make big splash plays downfield, evidenced by his 7.8 yards per route run on deep passes (20+ yards) and 8.68 yards per route run on medium attempts (10-19 yards).
Don't be surprised if Dotson's high-end speed (78th percentile 40-yard dash) shows us how he blows past the Packers' defensive backs with the most attention on Brown and Smith.
Jayden Reed and the Packers' Receivers
We'll want a piece of the Packers and Eagles game because they have one of the highest over/under totals in Week 1 at 49 to 49.5. The Eagles allowed the sixth-most fantasy points per dropback last season. Jayden Reed averaged the ninth-most fantasy points per route run while only running 58.9 percent of the routes.
Among the leaders in fantasy points per route run, Reed and Rashee Rice had route rates below 60 percent. That suggests Reed and Rice could explode after producing efficiently on a per-route basis as rookies. The first-round rookie Quinyon Mitchell projects to be the primary slot corner for the Eagles, and Reed could take advantage of him in man coverage, which the Eagles ran 10th-most.
Against man coverage, Reed ranked third on the team (0.56) behind Christian Watson (0.70) and Dontayvion Wicks (0.64) in fantasy points per route run. Watson could boom since he typically doesn't line up against the left cornerback, where Darius Slay mostly plays.
Using the FantasyPoints' Average Separation Score, Watson ranks 25th, near George Pickens, Ja'Marr Chase, and Jameson Williams, likely due to Watson's speed and athleticism.
The main aspect to watch with the Packers' receivers is how much they rotate Reed, Watson, Wicks, and Romeo Doubs. Based on the data, my gut says Reed and Wicks become the top options, but we're probably sleeping on Doubs and Watson.
The Buccaneers' Receivers Against the Commanders
Last season, the Commanders allowed the seventh-most fantasy points per dropback. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin should be locked into lineups, especially considering Godwin projects to play more in the slot. Godwin has been a high-end target earner, averaging 24.6 percent targets per route run and the 30th-ranked weighted targets per route run, accounting for target depth.
The Commanders drafted Mike Sainristil out of Michigan in the second round after playing on a dominant defense, allowing 10 points per game in college. Sainristil projects as the slot corner and maybe a slightly tougher opponent for Godwin than expected.
Jalen McMillan might be one of the best receivers besides Antonio Brown to play alongside Evans and Godwin. The Commanders' two outside corners, Michael Davis (No. 41) and Benjamin St-Juste (No. 43) posted mediocre Coverage Ratings.
However, Davis allows the 18th-most fantasy points per snap, and St-Juste allows the 42nd-most out of 183 qualified defensive backs with at least five routes defended per game.
They mixed in other defensive backs, who have been equally bad or worse. Let the Commanders prove they can defend the passing game before we change our minds. While we may not start McMillan, his stock might rise based on his usage in Week 1.
WR/CB Matchups To Downgrade
49ers' Receivers?
We're not fading the 49ers' offense, but temper expectations for a shootout. The 49ers and Jets game has a decent 43-point over/under, but the Jets' defensive backs have been one of the best in the league. Michael Carter II and Sauce Gardner allow the third-fewest fantasy points per route run. Meanwhile, D.J. Reed ranks 25th in fantasy points per route run.
The 49ers move Deebo Samuel Sr., Brandon Aiyuk, and Jauan Jennings around the formation, so this might be a moot point. Don't be surprised if the 49ers struggle to move the ball through the air, though we know Aiyuk feasts against man coverage, averaging the sixth-most yards per route run (3.80) against the Jets running the eighth-highest rate of man.
Diontae Johnson Against the Saints
Diontae Johnson projects to earn a ton of targets with the Panthers, with the offensive upgrades via Dave Canales, Johnson, and Jonathon Brooks. However, Johnson may run into Marshon Lattimore, who allowed the fewest fantasy points per route run. Lattimore had the third-lowest targets per route run against at 10.1 percent, likely indicating quarterbacks staying away from his side of the field.
Even if Lattimore doesn't primarily cover Johnson, the Saints have two other respectable defensive backs, Paulson Adebo and Alontae Taylor. Last season, Taylor ranked 10th in Coverage Rating, with Adebo at 21st. Most fantasy managers will likely need to start Johnson as a WR3 or flex, though temper expectations in Week 1.
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