WR/CB Matchups To Target and Downgrade - Wild Card Round

January 15, 2022

Andrew Lalama evaluates key WR/CB matchups through his cornerback ratings chart to find top wide receivers to target or avoid in Wild Card fantasy football lineups.

Welcome to the first ever Wild Card edition of the WR/CB Matchup Chart.  Congratulations to everyone who won their league. If this series helped you this season, shout us out on Twitter @draft32teams. The purpose of this week's article is to help you in playoff fantasy leagues or DFS. Staying on top of news is one way to get an edge, but understanding matchups is also important. One factor to consider in the playoffs is that better teams are generally better against the pass. The easiest matchups in the league each week were usually against bad teams who didn't make the playoffs. Conversely, the playoffs also features some of the best passing attacks in the league. There may not be as many smash spots due to solid DB groups, but playoff offenses got there for a reason also. Keeping track of implied totals and player props is just as important as understanding matchups in DFS and playoff fantasy.

Creating the weekly matchup chart has been more challenging than usual this year due to the fact that most teams are moving their WRs around more than they ever have. It is difficult to pinpoint which CB each WR will be matched up against. The chart is designed to give a 1-vs-1 matchup for each player, but the reality is that most NFL WRs will see a mix of all the DBs they face each week. The chart is best used to understand how teams are defending outside versus inside receivers if teams are shadowing, and how much emphasis they put on slowing down the opposing WR1.

While matchups do matter and every piece of information can give you an edge, it is important to understand that WR skill level and target share are more predictive than matchup in many cases. Blindly following the chart is not recommended, but it can be useful in making tough lineup decisions between two WRs close in skill level. The chart is best used to understand the context of matchups overall, not predict outcomes.

WR vs. CB Chart Details

The CB Matchup Chart below is a snapshot of each team's cornerback group as it relates to allowing fantasy points. There are inherent flaws within the data compilation of cornerback play. The first is the fact that quantifying a 1-on-1 matchup in an NFL game is unfair because of zone coverages, mental errors, certain passing concepts, and a million other things. Assigning fantasy points against a cornerback isn't a perfect science.

The purpose of this chart is to give more of a general sense of how defenses are handling opposing WR groups rather than identifying exactly where, when, and how every single encounter happened. Another factor to consider is that players are listed based on where they line up the majority of the time. Most receivers do not line up on the right side on every single snap, so they won't be matched up with the same CB on every snap.

The "Rtng" column is the rating of each cornerback based on film study and analytics. The lower a player is graded, the easier the matchup for the WR, so low ratings are green and high ratings are red. The "PPGA" is the number of fantasy points per game that the player has given up. A name in blue means the corner could possibly shadow the WR1. A name in red means that the player is dealing with an injury. WRs highlighted in bright green have an easy matchup. The chart is a useful tool, but should not be used as a start/sit cheatsheet.

Cornerback Ratings and Matchups Chart - Wild Card

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WR/CB Matchups to Target

The 49ers-Cowboys matchup has the highest total of the week (51), and has a good chance to see the most scoring of all the games this weekend. The Niners gave up the second-most points to opposing WR1s during the regular season, as Josh Norman has been exploitable all year. It's a good spot for Amari Cooper.

With Michael Gallup out, CeeDee Lamb will likely play more outside while Cedrick Wilson plays the slot in three-WR sets. Lamb has an easy matchup based on the data, but keep in mind that 49ers starting LCB Emmanuel Moseley has missed a handful of games. Moseley is back healthy, which means Lamb's matchup isn't as good as Cooper's.

On the other side of that game, the 49ers will look to exploit the Cowboys at RWR and slot. For whatever reason, LWRs did not produce well against Dallas all year. There are some advanced metrics that show Trevon Diggs has given up a lot of production this season, but based on FPPG against, WR1s haven't been great against the Cowboys. Diggs can shadow, and actually shadowed A.J. Green two weeks ago against the Cardinals. However, he typically does not travel to the slot, and doesn't have the athletic profile to stick with Deebo Samuel. I do not envision the Cowboys shadowing Samuel with Diggs. I expect Diggs to mainly stay at RCB and match up with Brandon Aiyuk. Deebo has the easiest matchup as the primary RWR. Jauan Jennings also gets an upgrade.

Robert Alford is questionable for Monday night's Cardinals-Rams matchup, and his status will impact Odell Beckham Jr. quite a bit. If Alford is out, Beckham will have arguably the easiest matchup of the week against Antonio Hamilton, or whoever slots in as LCB for the Cards. Hamilton himself is questionable as well. The Cardinals have been susceptible to WRs all season, so Van Jefferson is also in a good spot. Obviously, matchups don't really matter for Cooper Kupp. If you're wondering, his more favorable alignment will be outside this week, as Byron Murphy has been an above-average slot defender for Arizona.

The Rams have a solid CB group headlined by Jalen Ramsey, who has moved around the formation a lot this season. However, Ramsey's slot snaps have been trending down since Week 13, so I don't expect him to follow Christian Kirk that much. I suspect the Rams will choose to match Ramsey up with A.J. Green as much as possible, which is bad news for Green. Antoine Wesley has the easiest projected matchup based on FPPG against and should see mostly single coverage. The Rams CBs are good, but all it takes is a single one-on-one snap for a TD for Wesley to help out your lineup.

Ja'Marr Chase has the best matchup of the three Bengals receivers. Tyler Boyd will see a lot of Nate Hobbs, who has been one of the best slot corners in the NFL this season. Tee Higgins will likely see more of Casey Hayward than any other Bengals receiver. Chase will likely see a combination of Desmond Trufant and Brandon Facyson at RCB, which is a plus matchup for the eventual offensive rookie of the year.

On the other side of that game, Zay Jones has the best matchup of all the Raiders receivers. Eli Apple is arguably the most burnable outside corner left in the playoffs. Jones has been a surprise veteran standout as the primary outside threat for Derek Carr.

The total has dropped in the Eagles-Bucs game due to projected bad weather. Stay tuned for updates but also be aware that wind impacts passing stats far more than rain. In any event, Tyler Johnson has the easiest matchup of all Bucs WRs. Philly has been stellar against outside WRs all year, but susceptible in the slot. Obviously, a Gronk smash is also a decent bet.

WR/CB Matchups to Downgrade

As previously mentioned, the Bucs outside WRs will have to deal with the tough coverage of Darius Slay and Steven Nelson this week. Slay limited Mike Evans in their first matchup and has been an All-Pro performer all year. Breshad Perriman is questionable, but whoever starts at WR2 for the Antonio Brown-less Bucs will not be in a favorable spot.

In another rematch with weather concerns, the Patriots will travel to Buffalo to take on the Bills. Stefon Diggs obviously did nothing in the first frigid matchup against New England, but produced well the last time these two teams played. He still gets a downgrade because J.C. Jackson is terrific.

On the other side of that game, all three starting Pats receivers get downgrades against the stout Bills secondary. Jakobi Meyers is the likeliest for production, but the Bills have shut down slot production all year. Keep in mind that Buffalo has probably the best starting safety duo in the NFL, which makes passing in the middle of the field a difficult proposition for opposing QBs.

I touched on some of these earlier, but some of the tougher matchups for fantasy relevant players this week include Brandon Aiyuk against Trevon Diggs, A.J. Green against Jalen Ramsey and Darious Williams, Tee Higgins against Casey Hayward, and Hunter Renfrow against Mike Hilton. I must reiterate a key point when evaluating matchups - player skill, passing game potency, and target share are more important than matchup in most cases, so do not exclude players solely based on matchup.

Thanks for reading and good luck this week.

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