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Pittsburgh Steelers RB James Conner is starting to fade after a strong 2018 season. Dom Petrillo advises fantasy football owners who are worried about Conner how to pivot if they need a safer flex play ahead of the fantasy playoffs.
James Conner is having a great season by any metric you want to use. Not just a great season for a backup running back who unexpectedly inherited a starting role, but a great season even in comparison to the player he has replaced this season in Pittsburgh, Le'Veon Bell.
The concern here is not how he has been doing all season, but instead, how he has done the past few games coming down the stretch and if he can be trusted going forward into the fantasy playoffs. While looking at this, we have to remember a few things.
First, he was not drafted as a starter but as a possible one or two-week handcuff taken in the 10th round or later as an insurance policy to Le’Veon Bell - a role in which he has excelled past the expectations of even the most fervent Steelers fan. No matter what happens the rest of the season, you cannot be disappointed by the production you got from him considering the draft price. The second thing to remember is James Conner has never been the feature back in the NFL and therefore has not played in a 16-game season before. Pittsburgh, like the other teams, has now played 11 games which is more to the tune of what Conner is used to from his college days at Pitt and he is naturally going to start slowing a bit in his first featured season. Has he officially hit the wall and if so, what do we do about it?
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Reasons for Concern
As mentioned above, by the numbers Conner is having a great season for any running back in the NFL. His 849 rushing yards is third in the league behind only Ezekiel Elliott and Todd Gurley and directly ahead of Saquon Barkley and Kareem Hunt. He also has 10 rushing touchdowns to go along with one receiving touchdown and 453 yards on 49 catches out of the backfield this season.
The worries are therefore not about his production for the season, but instead, his production over the past few weeks as well as a tough playoff run for the Steelers starting this week with a Chargers defense which is only getting better as the season moves forward as they get Joey Bosa back healthy.
In the past two weeks against the Jaguars and Broncos, Conner has nine rushes for 25 yards and six receptions for 24 yards against the Jaguars followed by 13 rushes for 53 yards and four catches for 42 yards against the Broncos. Against the Jaguars, he also dropped a key pass which could have cost the Steelers the game had Ben Roethlisberger not been able to sneak into the end zone as time expired. Jaylen Samuel is starting to gain more snaps in the offense. More snaps than normally seen from a backup in Pittsburgh and this shows the team is aware Conner is starting to get tired from the work he has been given so far. Going forward, Conner is going to have a secure workload, but it may not be as massive as in the early season making him a great flex play or even running back two, a spot he can easily be used in as he was probably your third or even fourth running back selected. However, it also means there may be some players at other positions who could provide the same or more upside should you be hesitant.
Possible Pivot Plays
D.J. Moore (WR, CAR)
A rookie wide receiver which I have been leading the hype train of since the draft, D.J. Moore is finally breaking out in the absence of Devin Funchess who is going to miss a juicy matchup this week against the Buccaneers as well. This means even more good things are in store for D.J. Moore who followed up his 142-yard, one touchdown performance against the Lions with a performance against the Seahawks of eight receptions for 91 yards and one rush for seven yards.
The game this weekend against Tampa Bay as well as another game left against the Falcons means there are going to be ample opportunities against bad defenses to have more explosive games. While playing the Falcons and Buccaneers are great, the two games left against the Saints also means good tidings for the holiday season for Moore owners as the Saints, as good as their offense is, their pass defense is not up to the same standards this season. Also, the shootout potential in these games is incredible making a touchdown and 75 yards and solid floor in these games for the wide receiver.
If he is on your waiver wire for any reason, go and get him. If he is on your team already, consider him in games which Conner has a bad matchup. Perhaps when the Steelers go to New Orleans in Week 16 and take on the top rush defense in the NFL.
Josh Adams (RB, PHI)
Doug Pederson said he wanted to get Josh Adams more involved in the offense and we saw in Week 12 he did just this. The stats were not mind-blowing to say the least with 84 yards on 22 rushes, but this was the most rushes by an Eagles' running back this season. Despite not gaining 100 yards, he looked good running behind a battered offensive line and had a 51-yard touchdown called back in the first quarter which would have made his day look a lot better than it was. Adams is not a threat in the passing game as he only had one catch on one target for zero yards, he will not be counted on for this as the Eagles do have pass catchers abound and Adams as the running back will be a solid contributor and in upcoming divisional games against the Redskins twice, the Cowboys and even in Week 15 against the Rams, he should be able to not only run all over the field but also score a few touchdowns and even further his value.
Rex Burkhead (RB, NE)
Yes, he is just coming off of injured reserve, but Bill Belichick loves him some Burkhead, and if Sony Michel continues to be hobbled by knee issues, he will be back in business. He may not be a good play for this week against the Vikings, but in coming weeks as he gets worked back into the offense, he could be a flex play who can help take you to a championship. Sharing the backfield with James White, these two could make a potent duo, and although they both will cannibalize each other in the passing game, Burkhead will get a majority of the rushing work including on the goal line where he has been a beast in his career despite his size.
Even if you do not start this week, make sure to pick him up as you can keep him from being played against you and also you will have him for upcoming weeks when he will be a great play. Otherwise, if you don’t pick him up this week, you will miss out on him as he will surely be gone next week.
Don’t just sit James Conner to sit him. Despite his recent slide, he is the main reason you probably made the playoffs in your league. But if you feel you want to get in some players with a higher floor going forward look at the names above as pivots which will give you solid numbers on a weekly basis if Conner’s recent play has made you nervous.
