Woos and Boos - Starts and Sits for Week 17 Lineups

December 29, 2019

Brandon Murchison's under-the-radar starts and sits for your Week 17 fantasy football lineups - sneaky players to start, and typical starters that may disappoint.

A majority of fantasy football championships have been decided, but there are still leagues that play out the string through Week 17. This week is perhaps the toughest to manage throughout the season. Not only do you have to weave through the injuries that have compiled during the year, but you also have to work with the load management of some of the top players in the league. With teams already locked into their seeds for the playoffs or outright eliminated, you will see some of the household names in fantasy be given the week off to end the regular season. This can be mind-numbing for owners that are in the last week of a two-week title game.

We already know that Lamar Jackson (2019 fantasy MVP) will be taking a seat, meaning that a player that lead owners this far will not be at their disposal. Putting them in a bind to either go to the bench for another option or jump into the waiver wire world of Week 17. The last week of the regular season can also be a proving ground for players given an opportunity due to injury or looking to gain momentum heading into 2020. Finding these under the radar plays can be similar to what owners try to do in setting up a DFS lineup. You want to play your proven talent that will be given their normal opportunities during the game. But you also want to find the players that you can sneak into a lineup that has solid matchups and will be worked into the game-plan. I'm not a big proponent of Week 17 championship outcomes, but they are definitely played and I am here to help you nonetheless.

So let's jump into the numbers as I present to you my Woo's and Boo's for Week 17 to help you with those tough lineup decisions you may be facing.

Woo! - Week 17 Starts

Jared Goff vs. Arizona Cardinals

Goff has been one of the more untrustworthy QBs in fantasy throughout most of the 2019 season. But he has caught fire at just the right time as he has thrown for multiple touchdowns in four straight games. In Week 17, he faces a Cardinals Defense that is coming off a great game in which they shut down the Seahawks on the road. This may cause a bit of pause for some owners but the defense still ranks as the worst in fantasy during the season (22.9 FPPG). With the offense finally finding its rhythm and his receivers all playing healthy, I expect to see a solid effort for Goff in this game. Another multiple touchdown game should be in order as he also pushes for 300 yards as well. Making him an easy play as a QB1 this week.

Sony Michel vs. Miami Dolphins

Michel spent much of the 2019 season as an overvalued pick for many fantasy owners. His usage in the Patriots backfield was a head-scratcher for many. But as the weather has turned colder, the Patriots offensive scheme tends to change as well. Michel has seen back to back games with over 20 touches and has provided fantasy owners with a late-season punch as an RB2/Flex play. That could once again be the case in Week 17 as the Patriots will be facing a Dolphins Defense that typically plays poorly in New England. Over the last four games, the Dolphins have been middle of the league in points allowed to the position (23.50 FPPG). So look for the Patriots to continue to establish the run with Michel as he should be a lock for another 20 touches this week. I also expect him to find the end-zone in this game and should be a player you have locked in as an RB2.

Justin Watson vs. Atlanta Falcons

With the injuries that have decimated the Buccaneers receiving corps, Watson has been forced to step into a starter's role. In Week 16 he responded well with five catches and a score in what was a very up and down game for Jameis Winston. This week they will again be at home and facing a Falcons Defense that has been the most stingy in the league over the last month (17.68 FPPG to opposing receivers). In what is almost certain to turn into a shootout between two divisional foes, Winston and the passing attack will have to keep pace. A lot of attention will be placed on Breshad Perriman, meaning there will be plenty of single coverage to exploit for Watson. I expect Watson to haul in another five catches at a minimum in this game, while also adding in a score. He's a player you may be able to snag off the waiver wire and plugin as a WR3 in the final week of the NFL season.

Jonnu Smith @ Houston Texans

In a very important game for the Titans' playoff hopes, they will be looking to play at their highest level of the season. Smith has been playing at a borderline TE1 level over the last three games and that should continue in this contest. Facing a Texans Defense that has been near the bottom in points allowed over the last four games (17.68 FPPG), Smith should see plenty of opportunities here. The honus of the Texans defense will be to lock down Derrick Henry and the rushing attack, leaving the middle of the field wide open for Smith to maneuver. The Titans passing attack has also been playing at a high level since Ryan Tannehill took over as the starter, so if the running game falters, the passing game should pick up the slack. Smith should be good for four to five catches in this game as well as a score. Making him a solid start for those looking for help at the position in Week 17.

Boo! - Week 17 Sits

Russell Wilson vs. San Francisco 49ers

Wilson has been relied upon as a high-end starter for much of the 2019 season, but coming off an underwhelming performance in what should have been a prime spot, some owners may be questioning things. In Week 17 he could disappoint yet again as he faces the stout 49ers Defense. Granted they have shown cracks recently as they have ranked last in points allowed to QBs over the last four weeks (26.27 FPPG), this game could turn into a low-scoring affair. With the injuries to the Seahawks backfield, the defense will be keying on Wilson and the passing game, which should limit his opportunities. You're likely starting him in this final game, but limit the expectations you have going in.

Derrick Henry @ Houston Texans

Henry got the week off in Week 16 to rest up for this game. But he has been fighting the hamstring injury for weeks now and they can flare up at any moment. Which is not what fantasy owners need to rely on in a must-win situation. Just two weeks ago he fared well against this Texans defense (86 yards rushing, no scores), but could be limited in this game. With the level in which Tannehill has been playing, the Titans offense will not have to rely on Henry to carry the team here. The defense will also be looking to shut him down as well making him a risky play in Week 17.

Jarvis Landry @ Cincinnati Bengals

After a string of games earlier in the season in which Landry seemed unstoppable, he has come back down to Earth in recent weeks. Going on the road to play a Bengals Defense that has been somewhat tough against opposing receivers in recent weeks (ranked 21st at 30.55 FPPG), Landry could put forth another modest effort. In Week 14 he could only manage 76 yards on four catches, a stat line I could see repeated in this game. Not to mention that this Browns team is on the verge of imploding. I could see this as being a tough day all around for the Browns offense, making Landry a player you may want to pivot away from.

Darren Waller @ Denver Broncos

Waller has been as hot and cold as they come since the halfway point of the NFL season. He has more single-digit fantasy performances since Week 7 than he has double-digit (7-3). So even though he is widely considered as one of the more elite players at the position, he has been hampered by poor performances from the Raiders offense. This week they go on the road to play a Broncos Defense that has been playing hot as of late. With everything adding up, it makes it hard for me to trust Waller with everything on the line. There will be more sound options available to you on the waiver wire and I would certainly look to pivot to a player with a more favorable matchup.

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