WNBA Futures Betting Picks

May 14, 2021

Justin Carter recommends futures bets ahead of the 2021 WNBA season. These include bets for the 2021 WNBA champion as well as the 2021 WNBA MVP. See which teams and players offer value to bettors.

The 2021 WNBA season tips off on Friday, which means there's still time to get your bets in for who'll win the 2021 championship.

And based on the current odds over in the DraftKings Sportsbook, there's room for a smart bettor to make some good money on the league this season.

So, let's get right into it by looking at the championship odds for this year and making sense of what bets you should and shouldn't be making.

WNBA Championship Odds

Here are the current odds, per DraftKings Sportsbook:

You can't bet on the Sun on DK, which...maybe it's because they're owned by the Mohegan Sun tribe and play their games at a casino? I'm actually not sure, but that's the best thing I can figure out. But hey, there are still 11 more odds we can go off of and discuss.

First, the one big thing here is that you missed the window for really getting some good value.

At one point, Minnesota was at +1400, and the Sky were at +1000. It seems the market has wised up some, but both teams are still solid values.

Chicago, for example, enter the season as the No. 1 team in my power rankings after adding Candace Parker to the team. Assuming that their budding young star Diamond DeShields returns to form after a disappointing 2020 campaign, this team should have the league's best offense, and the addition of Parker gives them a needed boost on the defensive end, where they've definitely struggled at times.

Meanwhile, Minnesota will open the season with one of the league's best players, Napheesa Collier, not in the country yet because of obligations on her team in France. Still, they have one of the best centers in the league in Sylvia Fowles, plus last year's Rookie of the Year, Crystal Dangerfield. They added Aerial Powers in free agency as well as sharpshooter Kayla McBride, though McBride is also unavailable to start the year. Minnesota could have a shaky start, but at full strength, this is a title-contending team.

The favorite is Seattle, but I'd be a little wary of betting on the Storm. Sure, they have defending MVP Breanna Stewart still, but they saw two key players leave in the offseason in Alysha Clark and Natasha Howard. There's still a lot of talent here, but teams like Vegas, Chicago, and Minnesota have two players who can be in the MVP conversation. For the Storm, it's really just Stewie, and while Stewie rules, I just have to question if the firepower is here to make something happen.

Vegas is the team that probably should have the best odds, except an ACL injury in the preseason to Angel McCoughtry puts them in a tough spot. Still, this team made the Finals last year and just added Chelsea Gray, arguably the second-best point guard in the W, and Liz Cambage. Riquna Williams joins the team to offer some bench shooting and Kelsey Plum is back after missing last year due to injury.

As for a team with longer odds making a surprise run, the only one I really see with a shot is Phoenix. They have some very talented players on the roster -- a starting lineup that features Brittney Griner, Brianna Turner, Skylar Diggins-Smith, and Diana Taurasi has to be among the league's best starting units, but depth is a real concern for this team. More than pretty much any team, getting perfect health out of their key players is crucial for this team.

WNBA MVP Odds

In addition to betting on a champion, you can bet on who'll win MVP. There's too many players listed for me to put the whole list here, but let's go over some of the intriguing picks.

A'ja Wilson: +275

Last year's MVP currently has the best odds to be this year's MVP, but I'm not sure how much I'd want to bet on Wilson?

Why? Because the Aces got Liz Cambage back this year, who'll team up with Wilson in the Aces frontcourt. Because of that, I'd expect Wilson's usage to go down, which could negatively impact her numbers and lead to her not having the kind of narrative around her that voters will want to see.

On the other side of that, the Aces could be the league's best team, and "best player on the best team" is often a strong recipe for winning MVP. So, don't count Wilson out, even if she might not be the absolute favorite that the odds imply.

Breanna Stewart: +300

There are a lot of people who think Breanna Stewart was robbed of MVP last year. I personally don't think that, but "best player in the league coming off a season where many people think she got robbed" is the exact narrative you want to see when placing preseason MVP bets.

Stewart's Storm team lost some key pieces, so if they can still be a top four team, Stewart is winning MVP, as she'll get all the credit for that. And hey, she'll probably deserve it, since she's one of the most talented players in women's basketball history.

Elena Delle Donne: +600

The 2019 MVP sat out last season and won't be ready to start the season because of a back injury. That second part makes her a risky MVP pick, but Delle Donne is just so good that if you think she plays 80 percent of the season, she's got a shot at winning the award. The first WNBA player with a 50/40/90 season, EDD is just impossible to stop and is a historically efficient player.

Jonquel Jones: +1800

Another player who sat out last season, Jones was third in MVP voting in 2019. That year, she averaged 14.6 points, 9.7 rebounds, 1.3 steals, and 2.0 blocks per contest, but she also had her worst WNBA season by field goal percentage. But with DeWanna Bonner on this Sun team now, there's going to be a lot less defensive pressure on Jones, and that extra space should see her return to the 53 percent mark she shot her first two seasons. If she does get there, the added points will look really nice on paper, and if Connecticut strings some big wins together, Jones can walk away with her first MVP award.

Nneka Ogwumike: +4000

Here's my long shot MVP pick. The Sparks saw two of their most important players leave this offseason in Chelsea Gray and Candace Parker, and a lot of people are low on them right now because of that. But there's still a ton of talent on this Sparks team, and if they can finish as a top five team, Nneka is going to get a lot of credit. Enough to get her into the MVP conversation? We'll have to see what her numbers look like, but she does have an MVP award in her past and is a nice long-shot pick.

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