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Ellis' betting breakdown for the two NFL playoff matchups this Saturday that kick off Wild Card Weekend. The Seahawks take on the 49ers and the Chargers face the Jaguars.
The NFL regular season is officially over and the playoffs are set! This year, all of the Wild Card matchups are repeats from the regular season. As a result, we already have previews of how the matchups have gone.
However, a lot can change in a year. Just ask the Cowboys as they face a Buccanneers team that held them to three points in Week 1. Other teams such as the Bengals and Ravens faced as recently as last week! With the data from their previous games and the teams' current trends, there is a lot to sift through for each matchup.
My name is Ellis Johnson, and I have written the Thursday Night Start ‘Em Sit ‘Em article for RotoBaller over the last three years, and have done playoff matchup breakdowns for FantasyPros. Over my next few articles, I am going to break down what I believe are the important details of each Wild Card matchup and provide my game picks and player prop parlays for each.
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Seahawks vs. 49ers (4:30 PM ET)
These two division rivals meet for the third time this season, with each of the first two games favoring the 49ers. These two games also both hit the under, with each game totaling 34 points. The current line for this game is 49ers -9.5 and Over/Under 43.5 points. Now let’s break down the teams.
Seahawks
This team scraped its way into the playoffs despite losing all momentum after their trip to Germany. Finishing the season winning only three of their final eight games, this was the opposite of getting hot at the right time. Despite two of these losses to the Raiders and Panthers, this team turned it around just in time to win their last two games and become the NFC’s seventh seed.
Over their last three games, the Seahawks have gone back to their original identity of a run-first team. Although Geno Smith still managed to break Seattle’s franchise record for passing yards, it wasn’t because of the recent philosophy. Over their last three games, the Seahawks are averaging the second-most rushing yards per game and well under 200 passing yards per game.
Unfortunately, this doesn’t bode well against the 49ers, who allow the fewest rushing yard per game over the season. However, this 49ers team has recently fallen off when it comes to defending the pass, averaging the fifth-most passing yards allowed over their last five games. These recent trends strongly imply that Smith will need to turn back the clock to the start of this season to have a chance against the league’s best defense.
49ers
Say what you will about playoff experience and being led by a rookie QB, Vegas clearly isn’t bothered by either as they have them pushing double-digit favorites. Why would you be worried about Brock Purdy? All he has done since stepping in is limit turnovers and win games. With how this 49ers team matches up against the Seahawks, that’s all he’ll need to do to secure his first playoff win.
Over the past five weeks, the Seahawks are averaging the 10th-fewest passing yards allowed per game, but are allowing 140 rushing yards to the running back position over that span. That’s right, it’s time to talk about Christian McCaffrey. Not only is Seattle averaging the second-most rushing yards to the position, but they are also allowing 1.2 rushing TDs and the sixth-most receiving yards to opposing RBs over their last five games.
The other key mismatch here is at the TE position. George Kittle has been on a tear lately, scoring seven touchdowns in his last four games. Purdy has relied on the veteran TE heavily over the last stretch of games, and now faces a team allowing over 65 yards and five touchdowns per game to the position. Solely due to these mismatches of CMC and Kittle, I struggle to see the Seahawks overcoming this underdog story.
Ellis’ Picks (SEA vs. SF)
Seahawks +9.5 ❌, Under 43.5 ❌
The 49ers are truly remarkable. The fact that they can be on their third-string QB and you can continue to make a case that they are the most complete team in the NFL is wild. What is also incredible is Geno Smith and the Seahawks getting away with daylight robbery of the Denver Broncos and still making the playoffs.
These divisional playoff games are often tighter than we expect, with each team knowing the opposing offenses well. As a result, I really like the plus points with the Seahawks. Although I would like it a lot better if it became 10.5 points, I don’t expect Pete Carroll and this team to get blown out to start Wild Card Weekend. On that note, with the previous two games failing to crack 35 points, I struggle to see this one surpassing the line at 43.5.
Player Prop Parlays (SEA vs. SF)
Christian McCaffrey Over 73.5 rushing yards
George Kittle Anytime TD
Deebo Under 42.5 receiving yards
+700 ❌
Geno Smith Over 0.5 int
Geno Smith Over 230.5 passing yds
+200 ✅
Chargers vs. Jaguars (8:15 PM ET)
These two teams met in Week 3 when the Jaguars won handily, 38-10. However, it’s important to remember that this was also the week after Justin Herbert cracked his ribs against the Chiefs. Since Week 3, the Jaguars overcame a midseason five-game losing streak and still managed to win their division. The Chargers, on the other hand, finally started to look like the potent team we expected once their playmakers came back from injury.
We have two high-flying young QBs going head-to-head against two of the weaker defenses in the playoff bracket. The line is currently set at the Chargers favored by a point and a solid over/under of 47.5. Let’s break down these two teams.
Chargers
Despite all of the injuries on the offensive side of the ball, Justin Herbert managed to propel this team to average the third-most passing yards per game. He now faces a Jaguars team that is allowing the 10th-most passing touchdowns and fifth-most passing yards per game on the season. This is a prime matchup for Justin Herbert to make his postseason debut, especially with Keenan Allen back and healthy. Unfortunately, Mike Williams is out with a back injury. This means Brampton Ontario's own, Josh Palmer, will have a huge opportunity.
As for his weapons? That’s the best part. I believe there is a golden ticket for this Chargers team that comes in the shape of the NFL’s leading TD scorer. That’s right, it’s Austin Ekeler who is going against the team allowing the second-most receiving yards to the RB position. Since Ekeler is the heart and soul of this offense, that is a mismatch I think they will exploit. As for their star receivers, the Jaguars have held opposing WRs to the 10th-fewest yards per game, despite averaging the fourth-most touchdowns to the position. I think there won’t be a shortage of points scored as Herbert and his playmakers will find a way to break down this Jaguars' defense.
Jaguars
This team has been on fire lately. Winning five of their last six games, this offense is red-hot. Trevor Lawrence has led his team to 24 points per game this season and averaged over 230 passing yards per game. It’s awesome to see this Jaguars team rebound from the miserable season last year, and make the playoffs for the first time since Blake Bortles led the team in 2017.
This round, they face a Chargers team that has not been scary on defense. The Chargers have allowed the fifth-most total rushing yards per game and the second-most rushing yards to the running back position. Considering Travis Etienne has over 100 total yards in three of his last four games, this could be Jacksonville’s key to success. However, it is important to note that Joey Bosa has only been back for the last two weeks after his injury in Week 3.
As for the passing game, the Chargers are allowing the seventh-fewest passing yards per game and the fourth-fewest yards to WRs. Cornerback Asante Samuel Jr. and Safety Derwin James Jr. have had incredible seasons and should make it a long day for Christian Kirk and Zay Jones. As for the red-hot Evan Engram, the Chargers are middle-of-the-pack against the TE position.
Ellis' Picks
Chargers -2.5 ❌, Over 47.5 ✅
This should be a great game. Neither of these defenses really scares me compared to the elite QB talent on the other side of the ball. I expect offensive sparks to fly all Saturday night as we sit back and watch a barn burner. I’m a little surprised the line is set so close, as the AFC South was a fairly weak division to win. Despite that, there is no doubt that this Jaguars team has a lot of momentum going into the playoffs. Still, I think the overall talent of the Chargers will win out here, and lead the team to their third Divisional Round appearance since 2010.
Player Prop Parlays
Justin Herbert Over 1.5 passing TDs
Austin Ekeler Over 40.5 receiving yards
Austin Ekeler Anytime TD
+375 ❌
Travis Etienne Over 94.5 total yards
Evan Engram Over 40.5 yards
Trevor Larence Over 245.5 passing yards
+400 ✅
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