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Adam Koffler evaluates the top wide receivers who have disappointed so far in 2021 and could be busts for fantasy football. Can they still deliver WR1 value or should fantasy GMs be worried?
What do Cooper Kupp, Tyler Lockett, Adam Thielen, and Deebo Samuel all have in common? According to preseason average draft position (ADP), they were all drafted as their respective teams' WR2. Robert Woods, DK Metcalf, Justin Jefferson, and Brandon Aiyuk were all viewed as surefire WR1s and taken ahead of these four guys.
Not only that, but Kupp, Lockett, Thielen, and Samuel also happen to be the four highest-scoring wide receivers through two weeks. Let's dive into the details and see if we should really be worried about what we believed were WR1s heading into the season.
Worry Level (0-10) with 0 being not worried whatsoever and 10 being extremely worried
Editor's Note: Identify fantasy football draft busts, overvalued ADPs, and key players to avoid so you can draft with confidence this season.
Robert Woods, Los Angeles Rams
Woods' usage after Week 1 was concerning. He only ran a route on 68% of Matthew Stafford's dropbacks, seeing just four targets from the Rams' new quarterback. That was fewer targets than he had seen in any one game last season. He still caught a touchdown, which salvaged his week, but the usage was very concerning.
Week 2, however, was a different story. Woods ran more routes (27 vs. 18) and played on 98% of the snaps. He saw nine targets, good for a 31% target share. Granted, Kupp was the one with the huge stat line, going 9-163-1 on 11 targets, but the concerns for Woods after Week 1 were eased by his workload in Week 2.
Through two weeks, it's clear Kupp might be Stafford's go-to guy, but Woods should also produce. Kupp was being drafted around WR20 this season, while Woods was viewed as a top-15 guy. It's now looking more like Kupp is a top-10 guy, while Woods is more like a top-20 guy moving forward. Both should be able to produce in what looks to be a narrow target funnel in the Rams' passing attack.
Worry Level - 3
DK Metcalf, Seattle Seahawks
Lockett has 278 yards and three touchdowns through two weeks. That's insane. But guess what, Metcalf has the same number of targets (16) and thus the same target share (30.8%). Lockett had these explosion games last season on a few occasions and then would vanish into oblivion in other games. While that may not happen again this season, there should be plenty of opportunities for both Lockett and Metcalf to eat on a regular basis.
Metcalf actually has more red zone targets (two) than Lockett thus far (one), but Lockett has more touchdowns. His touchdowns typically come as a result of Russell Wilson buying more time with his legs, and getting open downfield, so this makes sense. The point is, it's hard to project Lockett over Metcalf, or even Metcalf over Lockett for that matter. Both receivers should be considered WR1s on a weekly basis until we see otherwise. Just like in Los Angeles with Woods and Kupp, the target funnel is so narrow in Seattle that you can make a case for both of these guys to produce admirably.
It may be impossible to predict which guy goes off in a given week, but both should always be in your starting lineup due to their relatively safe floors and insanely high ceilings. That being said, Lockett looks like the much better value this season with an ADP of WR21 compared to Metcalf who had an ADP of WR4.
Worry Level - 1
Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings
Through the first two weeks of the season, Jefferson is being outscored by not only Adam Thielen, but also by K.J. Osborn. That should at least be a little concerning, right? Since after all, Jefferson was taken as the sixth or seventh wide receiver off the board this season.
Well, not so fast. Despite being out-produced in terms of fantasy points, Jefferson is still 13th in the league in air yards with 227. That's good for the eighth-highest air yards share amongst all receivers (44.9%). But he's only found the end zone once compared to three times for Thielen.
The slightly concerning part for Jefferson is the fact that it looks like Osborn can be a legitimate third option in the passing game for this Vikings team. Last season, after Jefferson took over as the starter for OlaBisi Johnson in Week 3, he had a target share of 27.4% as one of two legitimate options in the passing game. So far this season, that number sits at 24.1%. While not an enormous difference, it's not insignificant, especially given the Vikings have attempted the ninth-most passes per game (41) through two games. If their defense improves and they find themselves playing with the lead, Jefferson's volume may not be what it was a season ago.
It's also certainly possible K.J. Osborn gets shotput into oblivion and it's once again Jefferson and Thielen making all the plays in the passing game. The air yards and solid target share have me optimistic, but it may be hard for Jefferson to top what he did last season as a rookie.
Worry Level - 2
Brandon Aiyuk, San Francisco 49ers
Aiyuk was seemingly in Kyle Shanahan's doghouse in Week 1, a game in which he played just 47% of the snaps and ran just 15 routes. Shanahan made some comments that he wasn't fully healthy with the preseason hamstring injury, but also spoke about Aiyuk's preparation, and needing to get better. That led to more snaps for Trent Sherfield.
No big deal, let's give Aiyuk another chance to prove his worth in Week 2. Well, in Week 2 vs. the Eagles, he played just 54% of the snaps and ran just 20 routes. While that is some improvement over Week 1, the production (and usage) still wasn't there. In comparison, Deebo Samuel played on 70% of the snaps and ran 22 routes. But it was Samuel that got the targets. He saw eight vs. just two for Aiyuk.
It's probably only a matter of time before Aiyuk sees a full complement of snaps, and it could even come as early as Week 3. But even if that's the case, it looks like Jimmy Garoppolo has an eye for Samuel over Aiyuk. That could change, and a different gameplan could favor the Arizona State product, but while Samuel is fully healthy, he looks to be the WR1 in San Francisco.
At the end of the day, this 49ers team is built to run the football. Through two games, they have run the ball 54.1% of the time, only attempting 28 passes per game. Samuel's league-leading 38% target share will decrease, but it's time to lower expectations on Aiyuk so long as both Deebo and George Kittle are on the field making plays for the 49ers.
Worry Level - 5
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