Wide Receiver Snap Counts and Target Trends - Week 8 Analysis

October 31, 2019

Phil Clark looks back at Week 8 targets, snaps, receptions trends for fantasy football WRs to find risers and fallers who are possible buy-lows or sell-highs.

Wide receivers are essential components toward your ultimate goal of securing league championships. As the season unfolds, an expanding collection of tools are available that can provide you with an extensive level of knowledge. Those results provide the foundation for this weekly statistical breakdown of the wide receiver position, which is designed to help you fulfill your championship aspirations.

This will be the eighth installment that examines game-specific data, including updated totals for targets, red-zone targets, snap counts, and a compilation of advanced statistics. The information that is contained in this weekly report will analyze how various receivers are being utilized, and how effectively they are capitalizing on their opportunities.

This week’s article will be functioning with eight weeks of data, which bolsters the foundation from which the numbers that are generated in various categories can be evaluated. As the season progresses noteworthy changes in usage and production will be blended into the equation. That will bolster your efforts to determine which wide receivers should be in your lineups, and which are worthy of remaining on your rosters. Pro Football Reference, NextGenStats, Rotowire, and Football Outsiders were all used as resources in compiling this data.

Week 8 Target Leaders  

Michael Thomas has re-defined the term reliable, by consistently accumulating favorable numbers across every category regardless of matchup, game script, and all other factors that would normally influence a wide receiver's usage and output. He also remains the league leader in targets following Week 8 game action (89).

Thomas is followed closely by Cooper Kupp (87), while Tyler Boyd (83), DeAndre Hopkins (81), and Keenan Allen (80) are the only other wide receivers that have collected 80+ targets through eight weeks. Julian Edelman (79), Julio Jones (74), Mike Evans (67), Allen Robinson (66), and Chris Godwin (63) also reside among the top 10. Odell Beckham (61), D.J. Chark (61), Courtland Sutton (60), and Robert Woods (60) are the only other receivers that have attained 60+.

Thomas has now captured a double-digit target total in four consecutive games (13/12/11/11) and has accomplished it during six of his eight matchups this season. Kupp, Allen, Boyd, and Edelman have now collected 10+ targets in five different contests, while Hopkins has reached double-digits in four separate games. Auden Tate has now joined Beckham, Julio Jones, and D.J. Moore in securing a double-digit target total three times during the season.

Since Week 5, five different receivers have collected at least 40 targets led by Thomas and Edelman (47). Hopkins (45). Boyd (44), and Kupp (41) are next, followed by Jones (37), and both Auden and Golden Tate (36). Golden Tate has also averaged 9.0 targets-per-game since returning to the Giants in Week 5, which ties him with Godwin and Davante Adams for 11^th overall in that category. His usage and production have been impressive since his reemergence and will be examined further in the 5 Things I Noticed section.

Stefon Diggs’ season-long 6.1 target-per-game average conceals the sizable increase in his usage since Week 6. After receiving 23 targets during his first five games (4.6 per game), Kirk Cousins has located him 26 times during his last three matchups (8.6 per-game). Josh Reynolds entered Week 8 with 10 targets for the season. But he collected eight during the Rams’ Week 8 matchup, which was the second-highest total of his career.

Largest Weekly Changes 

The largest weekly target totals were registered by Hopkins and Auden Tate (13). Chark, Evans, and Jones all collected 12 targets, while Edelman, Thomas, Curtis Samuel, and Christian Kirk captured 11. Kupp, Allen, Jarvis Landry, and Golden Tate were all targeted 10 times during their matchups in Week 8.

Four different receivers collected nine targets, as three players whose names are not surprising - Boyd, Tyreek Hill, and D.J. Moore – were joined by second-year receiver Russell Gage of the Falcons. The former sixth-round pick entered Week 8 with eight targets during the season and just 18 targets since entering the league in 2018. But he could become fantasy relevant as a consistent weapon in three-receiver sets following the departure of Mohamed Sanu.

Chark established a career-high in targets for the second time in four weeks by capturing 12 during Jacksonville‘s matchup with the Jets. That also represented a surge of +8 targets from Week 7, which was the highest increase for the week. Auden Tate’s 13 targets also improved his week-to-week total by +7 (13/6). That increase was matched by both Gage, and Reynolds, whose eight targets also represented a rise of +7 (1/8). The weekly total for Golladay surged by +6, while Samuel registered an increase of +5.

It proved to be difficult for Allen Robinson to replicate the career-best 16 targets that he attained in Week 7, as his seven targets resulted in a weekly drop of -9. Marvin Jones also experienced a similar decline of -8, while Alex Erickson (-7), A.J. Brown, D.K. Metcalf, Robert Woods, and Colt teammates T.Y. Hilton and Zach Pascal all experienced reduction of -5. Woods owners are enduring a collection of unwanted numbers that will be addressed further in the 5 Things I Noticed section.

Week 8 Yards-Per-Target Leaders

Stefon Diggs continues to lead all receivers in yards-per-target (14.4), followed by Kenny Stills (13.1), Amari Cooper (12.4), Mecole Hardman (11.7), Zach Pascal (11.7), Tyler Lockett (11.4), Chris Godwin (11.2), Chris Conley (11), Marcus Valdes-Scantling (10.8), D.J. Chark (10.8), and Courtland Sutton (10.6). Eight other receivers are averaging 10+

After attaining a 20.4 yard-per-target average in Week 8, Diggs has now averaged 17.8 during his last three contests. Kupp’s average rose from 7.2 to 9.1, after he averaged a mammoth 22 yards-per-target in Week 8 against Cincinnati. Evans’ average increased from 8.4 to 9.6 after he averaged a season-best 16.5 at Tennessee. Chris Conley averaged just 4.3 per-target from Weeks 4-6. But he has averaged 13.3 since Week 7, including a season-high 14.7 against the Jets in Week 8.

Kenny Golladay was averaging 6.6 yards-per-target as the Lions entered Week 4. But he has averaged 13,1 during his last three contests, including the season-high 15.4 that he attained in Week 8. Anthony Miller was averaging an anemic 2,67 yards-per-target from Weeks 1-4, and that average rose to 7.25 in Weeks 5-6. But that number soared to 22.5 in Week 8, after he collected all three of his targets - including two of 24+ yards. Both Golladay and Miller will be discussed more extensively in the 5 Things I Noticed section.

Larry Fitzgerald has averaged just 3.0 per-target since Week 7, after registering an 8.1 average from Weeks 1-6. Emmanuel Sanders averaged 5.0 per-target during his debut with San Francisco. That matches his season-long average, which is the lowest of his career.

Week 8 Targeted Air Yards Leaders 

Darius Slayton leads all wide receivers in targeted air yards 17.1. He is followed by James Washington (16.8), Kenny Golladay (16.5), Mike Evans (15.7), Devante Parker (15.4), Chris Conley (15.4), Mike Williams (15.1), and a trio of receivers that are averaging an even 15 - Samuel, Tyrell Williams, and Demarcus Robinson. Stefon Diggs and Tyreek Hill are next at 14.9 while spearheading a collection of nine receivers that are averaging 14+.

Three other rookies join league leader Slayton with averages that place them among the top 25. Terry McLaurin's 14.8 is currently 14th, Preston Williams is 18th (14.3), and Marquise Brown is for 22nd at 13.5.

Mike Evans continues to pace all receivers in air yards (1,011), followed by Julio Jones (955), Keenan Allen (941), Kenny Golladay (848), DeAndre Hopkins (846), Curtis Samuel (796), Stefon Diggs (772), Mike Williams (768), John Brown (735), and D.J. Chark (723), completing the top 10.

% Share Of Team’s Air Yards Leaders

Stefon Diggs leads all receivers in percentage share of teams air yards (45.48). Courtland Sutton is second (42.9), followed by Terry McLaurin (44.17). Allen Robinson (41.3), Robby Anderson (40.8), Curtis Samuel (40.26), Michael Thomas (39.76) D.J. Chark (38.26), Mike Evans (38.18) and John Brown (36.80) are all currently among the top 10.

Keenan Allen is next (35.9), followed by DeAndre Hopkins (35.1), Julio Jones (34.6), Odell Beckham Jr. (34.1), Kenny Golladay (33.0), Preston Williams (32.2), Adam Thielen (31.6), Julian Edelman (31.1), Jarvis Landry (31.1), Devante Parker (31.0), and Tyrell Williams completing the top 20 (31.0). Tyler Boyd (29.1) and D.J. Moore (29.1) lead a collection of 19 receivers that are averaging over 25%.

Courtland Sutton's share of 43.9 is almost 16% higher than his 2018 rookie season (28). John Brown's percentage of 36.80 is exactly 5% higher than his percentage in 2018 (31.80). Phillip Dorsett's share of 19.1 is 8.5% higher than one year ago  (10.6). Julio Jones' share is exactly 12% below last season's average (46.6/34.6).

Week 8 Red Zone Target Leaders 

Just one week ago, Michael Thomas was the only wide receiver that had accumulated more than 10 targets, while four other players had collected 10. However, the landscape has changed considerably after Week 8 game action as a total of six receivers have now accrued 11+ red zone targets while a total of 11 have reached double digits. The change in Julian Edelman’s numbers was more significant than any other receiver, as he now leads the league with 14 red zone targets.

Thomas, Mike Evans and Auden Tate have all attained 13, while Courtland Sutton and D.K. Metcalf have accrued 11. Cooper Kupp, Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Marvin Jones, and Emmanuel Sanders have all captured 10, while Chris Godwin, D.J. Chark, Tyler Lockett, Allen Robinson, and Kenny Golladay have all been targeted nine times inside the 20.

Edelman commandeered a league-high five targets in Week 8 and has now accumulated eight since Week 7. Tate was targeted four times and has now collected 12 targets since Week 4. Evans and Chark both received three targets in Week 8, while eight different receivers were targeted twice.

Golladay now leads the league with eight targets inside the 10, followed by Tate and Larry Fitzgerald with seven. Fitzgerald had maintained a stranglehold on league leadership in this category, after accumulating five targets inside the 10 during the Cardinals’ first two matchups. But he has only been targeted three times during the last six contests, and only twice since Week 3. Evans, Sanders, Godwin, Edelman, T.Y. Hilton, and Terry McLaurin have all received six targets inside the 10, while five other players have collected five.

Week 8 Snap Count Leaders

DeAndre Hopkins retains his lead in total snaps among all wide receivers (559), followed by Robert Woods (540), Tyler Lockett (535), Julian Edelman (518), Michael Thomas (513), and Tyler Boyd (508). No other receivers have surpassed 500 offensive snaps. Nelson Agholor (498), Courtland Sutton (493), Cooper Kupp (492), Chris Godwin (486), Mike Evans (460), Larry Fitzgerald (459), Odell Beckham (458), Keenan Allen (458), Brandin Cooks (446), D.K. Metcalf (442), Jarvis Landry (441), Allen Robinson (441), Demarcus Robinson (433), and Chris Conley (430) complete the top 20.

Beckham now holds a slight lead in offensive snap percentage (97.6), followed by Hopkins (97.2), Godwin (95.7), Woods (94.2), Landry (94), Lockett (94), Thomas (93.3), Robinson (92.4), Robby Anderson (92.2), Sutton (91.8), Boyd (90.6), Evans (90.6), and Moore (90.4) are the only receivers that have played on over 90% of their teams' offensive snaps. Allen (89.1), Agholor (88.8), and Samuel (88.3) lead a group of 15 receivers that have performed on over 80% of their team snaps.

Beckham led all receivers in snap count percentage during Week 8 and was the only receiver to perform on 100% of his team's snaps. Godwin was next (98.8), followed by Woods (98.4), Auden Tate (97.6), Kupp (97.7), Hopkins (96.4), Kenny Stills (96.4), Edelman (95.6), Mike Williams (95.6), Hilton (93.8), Golden Tate (93.2), Sutton (93.2), McLaurin (93.02), Phillip Dorsett (92.8), Moore (92.8), Zach Pascal (92.2), John Brown (91.2), Metcalf (91.8), Lockett (91.8), and Evans (91.6) complete the top 20 for Week 8.

Fred Brown had only played on 27 snaps since being promoted from Denver's practice squad. But he was involved in 36/63% of the Broncos' snaps in Week 8. That surpassed the count for Daesean Hamilton, who performed on 45/61.66% snaps. Dante Pettis had played on 77% of the 49ers' offensive snaps in Weeks 6-7. But he was only involved in 30% of the snaps in Week 8.

Five Things I Noticed 

1. There are currently multiple reasons for concern if you own Brandin Cooks or Robert Woods.

Cooks experienced his second concussion of the season in Week 8 and uncertainty surrounding his health only compounds the disappointment regarding his numbers. His current 8.9 yards-per-target average is his lowest since 2015 when he was collecting receptions from Drew Brees. His 50.3 yards-per-game average is also the lowest of his career and represents a drop of 25 yards from 2018 (75.3). After averaging 7+ touchdowns from 2015 to 2018, he has only scored once. Cooks has also manufactured just six receptions of 20+ yards after stockpiling 22 of those catches during 2018. Woods’ output has also been unsettling for his owners, although he is on pace for 120 targets, 76 receptions, and 942 yards. But those numbers are predicated on his current averages of 7.5 targets, 4.75 receptions, and 59 yards-per-game. Based upon Woods’ recent downturn in usage, those averages might be difficult to attain.

The issue for Woods and Cooks has been the extensive targeting of Cooper Kupp, and the emergence of third-year tight end Gerald Everett. Since Week 3, Kupp has averaged 11.3 targets-per-game, while Everett has averaged 7.4 per game since Week 4. Woods has been relegated to just 4.3 per game since Week 6. Jared Goff is averaging 39.25 attempts per game, which is four attempts-per-game higher than his 2018 average (35.1). The distribution of opportunities has not shifted favorably for Woods and Cooks, and owners will need to adjust expectations once the Rams return from their bye.

2. Golden Tate has now accumulated 36 targets since returning to the Giants in Week 5 (6/9/11/10).

That target total easily leads the Giants during that span, as Darius Slayton is a distant second among New York’s wide receivers with 20. Since Week 6, the 31-year old Tate has captured 30 targets, which tied him for fourth among all wide receivers. He is also sixth at his position with 20 receptions during that three-game sequence and eighth overall with 267 yards. Tate’s 12.2 yard-per-reception average is his highest since 2014, while his 8.1 average depth of target represents an improvement over 2018 when he averaged 6.45. 48% of his yards have been generated after the catch, as Tate has been deployed in the slot during 86% of his plays.

Whenever Sterling Shepard returns from his second concussion of the season, the receiving alignment could conceivably be altered. Both Tate and Shepard have operated inside during the majority of routes in their careers, although they are both capable of playing in the slot or on the perimeter. They will both work in coordination with Slayton, whose responsibilities outside should remain unchanged. He currently leads the league in targeted air yards (17,1), as the rookie is establishing his presence as an explosive downfield threat. However, Tate should maintain a sizable role as an integral component in the Giant offense while presenting a reliable target for rookie signal-caller Daniel Jones.

3, After averaging just 2.6 targets per game during Weeks 1-4, Anthony Miller has been targeted 19 times during Chicago’s last three outings.

The majority of those opportunities occurred in Weeks 5 and 7, and the increase in usage has enabled Miller to collect 12 receptions while accumulating over 87% of his overall yardage total during his last three games (183 of his 211 yards). Miller has averaged at least 12.8 yards-per-reception in four of his last five contacts, including a season-high 22.3 against the Chargers in Week 8. His 13.2 average leads the Bears, while his 7.8 yards-per-target average is a close second to Allen Robinson (8.0), and is also just behind Robinson in average depth/of-target (aDOT) - (10.7/10.5).

While trepidation concerning the proficiency of Mitchell Trubisky is justifiable. But Miller has emerged as Chicago’s WR2, within an offense that is currently eighth in passing play percentage (62.7%). He is now second among all Bears in receiving yards (211) and is third behind Robinson and Tarik Cohen in targets (27). Miller is also second in receptions of 20+ yards (4) and will be provided with more opportunities to operate as a downfield threat. He is available in the vast majority of leagues and can be utilized as an upside (but inconsistent) WR3 as the season continues.

4. From Weeks 1-3, Christian Kirk collected 20 of his 32 targets, while accumulating 205 yards. He also led the Cardinals in reception and receiving yards twice during that span.

But a high ankle sprain interrupted his statistical momentum in Week 4 and ultimately forced him from the lineup (Weeks 5-7). However, he returned to the lineup in Week 8, played on 86% of the Cardinals’ offensive snaps, and led the team in targets (11), and receptions (8). He also infused a level of explosiveness that was desperately needed in Kliff Kingsbury‘s aerial attack. If you extract his Week 4 matchup with Seattle that concluded prematurely due to his injury, Kirk has now captured a double-digit target total in three of the other four contests. That has propelled him to a 9.6 target-per-game average, which ties him for seventh overall.

Kirk is already an integral component within Arizona’s evolving offense. But his importance will be enhanced while the Cardinals contend with multiple injuries that have decimated what had been a dynamic backfield. 31 of Larry Fitzgerald’s 59 targets were distributed during Weeks 1-3, and he has received a total of seven since Week 7. Kirk should continue his ascension into responsibilities as his team’s top receiving weapon during the remaining weeks, while his average depth of target (9.3) and team-high air yards per snap (1.4) should only expand.

5. Detroit's 22^nd ranked ground game devolved into an unsightly and ineffective committee (2,23 yards-per-carry) during the team’s first matchup without Kerryon Johnson. However, the Lions should be compelled to utilize Matthew Stafford and the team’s passing attack more extensively during their remaining matchups.

This presents anyone who has invested in the team's receiving weaponry with a legitimate reason to believe that highly productive outings are looming. Stafford generated 342 yards and three touchdowns in Week 8 against the Giants while averaging a season-best 10.7 yards-per-attempt – which was over two yards higher than his previous season-high. This expanded Stafford’s career-best season average to 8.4. The Lions’ also passed the ball during every third down situation in Week 8 (13), which is news that owners of Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones can embrace. Golladay also averaged a season-best 15.4 yards per target against the Giants, and his average depth of target has now improved by 3.9 yards in comparison to 2018 (15.8/11.9). He is also third overall in targeted air yards (16.5) and is 13th in percentage share of team’s air yards (35.22). He also remains a preferred weapon of choice near the goal line, as he has accrued a league-leading eight targets inside the 10.

The increased emphasis on passing also supplies potential for greater consistency in the targeting and production for Jones. He has been deployed almost evenly in the slot (50.2%) and outside (46.5%), and has retained a top 25 snap count at his position (430/88%). The post-Johnson modifications could also open a pathway of sustained relevance for Danny Amendola as the season advances, with the prospects of raising his 6.5 target-per-game average.

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