Wide Receiver Sleepers, Risers, Breakouts for Fantasy Football - Targets, Air Yards, Snaps Trends for Week 10

You are already aware that wide receivers will play a critical role in the success of your teams. The undeniable volatility that exists with the running back position has also presented an increasing rationale for prioritizing wide receivers when you build your rosters – both at the onset of your drafts and as you manage your teams throughout the entire season.

The numbers that are generated by all wide receivers provide the foundation for this weekly statistical breakdown of the position, which I will be constructing for a sixth consecutive season. This will be the ninth installment that will examine game-specific data, including updated totals for targets, air yards, targets per route run, yards per route run, red-zone targets, and snap counts. The information that is contained in this weekly report will analyze how various receivers are being utilized, and how effectively they are capitalizing on their opportunities.

As the season progresses noteworthy changes in usage and production will be blended into the equation. Statistics from our player pages at RotoBaller were included during the compilation of data, while Pro Football Reference, PFF, Rotowire, Fantasy Points Data, NextGenStats, and Rotoviz were also used as resources in the creation of this report.

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Targets

17+14=6‼️

📺: @SNFonNBC pic.twitter.com/1t4TtjsYPb

— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) November 6, 2023

Stefon Diggs has maintained a share of the league lead with 97 targets entering Week 9. Diggs had accumulated 11+ during four consecutive matchups from Weeks 5-8 before he collected seven targets during Buffalo’s Week 9 matchup in Cincinnati - which tied his season low.

Diggs is now tied for the league lead with Tyreek Hill whose 97 targets have been constructed through accumulating 9+ during eight of his nine matchups. Hill has also assembled 10+ during each of his last four games.

Rookie Puka Nacua is now third overall with 96 targets, even though he has failed to exceed seven in each of his last two matchups. Nacua has also attained seven targets in four different games this season while securing 10+ during his other five matchups.

Ja’Marr Chase’s season-long total has expanded to 93 after he was targeted eight times by Joe Burrow in Week 9. Chase has now captured at least nine targets in six of his eight matchups for the season while averaging a league-best 11.6 per game.

A.J. Brown is automatic
pic.twitter.com/RBlX3m8MzV

— PFF (@PFF) November 5, 2023

A.J. Brown has now accumulated 92 targets, including 76 since Week 3 - which is second among all wide receivers. He has also averaged 11.8 per game during that span. Michael Pittman Jr. is next with 86 after he was targeted eight times by Gardner Minshew in Week 9. Pittman has now eclipsed 11+ targets during five of his matchups, while also failing to exceed five in two different outings.

Davante Adams has now accumulated 85 targets even though he has not exceeded seven targets during four of his last five matchups. Adams was second overall with an average of 12.5 targets per games from Weeks 1-4 but has averaged 7.0 per game since Week 5.

Chris Olave has also accrued 85 targets, even though the eight that he garnered in Week 9 represented his lowest total since Week 5. Olave had also averaged 11.3 targets per game from Weeks 6-8. Keenan Allen has captured 83 targets after eclipsing 9+ for a fourth consecutive game. Allen has also averaged 10.7 per game since Week 3.

Garrett Wilson expanded his overall total to 81 targets after capturing 13 for a second consecutive week. Wilson has also accumulated 12+ targets in three straight games, and four of his last five.

Marquise Brown has now collected 77 targets, including 9+ in five of his seven matchups between Weeks 2 and 8. Brown has also averaged 9.1 per game during that span. Amon-Ra St. Brown has also secured 77 targets and will return from Detroit’s bye week averaging 14.0 per game during his last three matchups.

Adam Thielen has now collected 76 targets even though the six that he accrued in Week 9 represented his lowest weekly total since Carolina’s season opener. Thielen had averaged 11.3 per game from Weeks 2-8 which was the league’s third highest average.

CeeDee Lamb has now accumulated 72 targets including 14+ during each of his last two matchups. Lamb’s 30 targets since Week 8 is the highest total among all wide receivers.

Terry McLaurin working the sideline 👏

📺: #WASvsNE on FOX
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/d4RDZpcMkc pic.twitter.com/LaTqJNbvv5

— NFL (@NFL) November 5, 2023

Terry McLaurin has now captured 70 targets including 9+ during four of his five matchups from Weeks 4-8. McLaurin had averaged 9.4 per game during that sequence before he was targeted seven times in Week 9.'

DeAndre Hopkins has collected 64 targets after he attained 11 in Week 9. It was the third time that he had secured a double-digit total this season and the second time during his last four games. Amari Cooper has accrued 63 targets even though the five that he collected in Week 9 represented his lowest weekly total of the season Cooper had eclipsed 8+ in three consecutive games prior to Week 9.

Chris Godwin’s season total has expanded to 62 even though he has failed to exceed seven targets during three of his last four matchups. Godwin is also averaging 8.0 per game since Week 6. Michael Thomas has also accumulated 62 targets, although he was relegated to a season-low of just one during New Orleans’ Week 9 matchup with Chicago. Thomas had eclipsed 7+ targets during six of his previous seven games from Weeks 2-8 while averaging 7.6 per game during that sequence.

D.J. Moore has also collected 62 targets even though he has averaged just 5.5 per game since Week 8. The 62 targets that have been accumulated by Jakobi Meyers were assembled largely between Weeks 1-7 when he averaged 9.7 per game. However, Meyers has been limited to just six targets during his last two games combined. Zay Flowers has also accrued 62 targets, although he was relegated to a season-low (1) when Baltimore hosted Seattle in Week 9.

Nine different wide receivers are averaging over 10.0 targets per game from Weeks 1-8  - Ja’Marr Chase (11.6), Amon-Ra St. Brown (11.0), Stefon Diggs (10.8), Tyreek Hill (10.8), Puka Nacua (10.7),  Justin Jefferson (10.6), Keenan Allen (10.4), A.J. Brown (10.2), and Garrett Wilson, who is averaging 10.1 targets per game.

Target Risers And Fallers

CeeDee Lamb: Highest-graded WR in Week 9 pic.twitter.com/mKsicFRGbw

— PFF (@PFF) November 6, 2023

CeeDee Lamb stockpiled 16 targets during the Cowboys’ Week 9 matchup in Philadelphia. That was the highest total among all wide receivers, while it also established a new career high. Lamb has also captured 14+ targets in two consecutive outings after averaging 6.3 per game from Weeks 3-6.

Garrett Wilson captured 13 targets in Week 9 and has now reached that total seven times during the first 25 games of his career. He has also accumulated 11+ in six of his last 10 games.

DeAndre Hopkins collected 11 targets in Week 9 which is the second time that he has attained that total during his last four matchups. He has now reached double digits three times this season after eclipsing 10+ during seven of his nine matchups in 2022.

Tank Dell also captured 11 targets in Week 9, which established a new season-high. It was also his second double-digit total of the year and his first since Week 2. Tyreek Hill has now secured double-digit target totals in six of his nine contests and is averaging 12.0 per game since Week 6. Hill’s first matchup with his former team in Week 9 will be examined further in the Five Things I Noticed section.

A. J. Brown secured nine targets when Philadelphia hosted Dallas in Week 9. Brown has now accrued 8+ during eight of his nine matchups while eclipsing 13+ three times.

Tee Higgins: 8 receptions for 110 yards 🔥

Next up: #HOUvsCIN 11/12 on CBS pic.twitter.com/fCRvpUUtct

— Cincinnati Bengals (@Bengals) November 6, 2023

Tee Higgins accrued a season-high 12 targets in Week 2, then averaged 5.5 per game from Weeks 3-8. However, he collected nine targets in Week 9, which was his second-highest total of the season.

Diontae Johnson also accumulated nine targets when Pittsburgh hosted Tennessee in Week 9. He has now captured 23 during his last two matchups and his recent statistical surge will be discussed in the Five Things I Noticed section.

Ja’Marr Chase collected eight targets in Week 9, which was his lowest total since Week 2. He had garnered 12+ targets in four of his previous five matchups while averaging a league-high 12.7 per game during that span.

Michael Pittman was also targeted eight times when Indianapolis visited Carolina in Week 9. He had eclipsed 13+ during two of his previous three matchups while averaging 10.7 per game during that sequence.

Chris Olave was also targeted eight times in Week 9 and has now captured 8+ in seven different matchups this season. He has also procured 11+ during three different games. Marquise Brown has accumulated 8+ targets in six of his last eight contests after he secured eight targets in Week 9. Brown has also collected 7+ in eight consecutive games.

Tyler Lockett has now captured eight targets in three of his last four matchups after he reached that total in Week 9. The nine-year veteran has also averaged 7.5 per game during that span. Jahan Dotson was relegated to just one target in Week 6, which was his lowest total since Week 12 of 2022. He has now garnered 8+ in three consecutive outings from Weeks 7-9 after he was targeted eight times by Sam Howell in Week 9.

Are you kidding?! 🔥 pic.twitter.com/K3Vm5SVyvn

— Houston Texans (@HoustonTexans) November 5, 2023

Tank Dell averaged 3.7 targets per game from Weeks 4-8 while failing to exceed four targets during that sequence. He accumulated 11 targets in Week 9, which fueled his week-to-week rise of +7.

JuJu Smith-Schuster was limited to one target in Week 8. However, he was targeted seven times despite only playing on 23 snaps in Week 9. That resulted in an increase of +6.

D.K. Metcalf accumulated a season-high 14 targets when Seattle hosted Cleveland in Week 8. He was limited to just four targets in Week 9, which created a week-to-week decline of -10.

Gabe Davis secured a season-high 12 targets in Week 8, which was also his highest total since Week 18 of 2021. However, he was limited to two targets in Week 9, despite operating with a 93% snap share. That led to a decrease of -10.

Air Yards

A.J. Brown has now led all wide receivers in air yards for five consecutive weeks and has accumulated 1,150 entering Week 10. Chris Olave is second overall (1,077), followed by Stefon Diggs (1,043), Tyreek Hill (1,037), Amari Cooper (959), and two receivers who are tied with 906 - Davante Adams, and DeAndre Hopkins. Puka Nacua is next (846), followed by Marquise Brown (834), Mike Evans (805), George Pickens (779), Terry McLaurin (759), Brandon Aiyuk (750), and Calvin Ridley, who will return from Jacksonville’s bye week with a total of 740 air yards.

Brandon Aiyuk continues to lead all wide receivers with a 48.9% air yards share. Garrett Wilson is second (48%), followed by A.J. Brown (47.8%), Amari Cooper (45.5%), Tyreek Hill (44.6%), Stefon Diggs (42.8%), and two receivers who have attained shares of 41.9% - Davante Adams, and D.J. Moore. Jerry Jeudy is next (41.8%), followed by George Pickens (41.6%), and DeAndre Hopkins, who has secured an air yards share of 41.5% from Weeks 1-9.

Tank Dell led all wide receivers with 229 air yards in Week 9. CeeDee Lamb was second overall (226), followed by Van Jefferson (194), Garrett Wilson (169), two receivers with 143 air yards - DeAndre Hopkins and Jalin Hyatt, and two receivers who accumulated 120 yards in Week 9 - Cooper Kupp, and KhaDarel Hodge.

Marquise Brown led all wide receivers with a 71.9% air yards share in Week 9. CeeDee Lamb was second (56.5%), followed by Tank Dell (55.3%), Diontae Johnson (54.8%), Amari Cooper (54.7%), and two wide receivers who secured shares of 52% in Week 9 - Jalin Hyatt, and D.J. Moore.

Routes 

Terry McLaurin has now run 372 routes from Weeks 1-9, which leads all wide receivers. McLaurin‘s teammate Jahan Dotson, and Michael Pittman, are tied for second overall with 369. Stefon Diggs is next (342), followed by Alec Pierce (334), DeVonta Smith (327), Josh Downs (324), D.J. Moore (322), and Ja’Marr Chase, who has accumulated 319 routes entering Week 10.

Zay Flowers is next (318), followed by two receivers who have run 312 routes - Adam Thielen, and Marquise Brown. Chris Olave completes the list of 13 wide receivers who have accumulated 300+ routes entering Week 10.

Adam Thielen ran 55 routes during his Week 9 matchup which was the highest total among all wide receivers. Van Jefferson was second overall (52), followed by CeeDee Lamb (51), Ja’Marr Chase (48), and two rookies who ran 46 routes - Jordan Addison, and Jonathan Mingo.

Terry McLaurin, and Brandin Cooks both accumulated 45 routes, followed by Stefon Diggs (44), Tee Higgins (43), Brandon Powell (42), and three receivers who accumulated 41 routes in Week 9 - Jahan Dotson, Demario Douglas, and Gabe Davis.

Targets Per Route Run

Even though fantasy managers may be frustrated with Davante Adams’ recent production, he has been targeted on a league-high 37.6% of his routes. Tyreek Hill is second overall (37.3%), followed by Brandon Aiyuk (36.6%), Garrett Wilson (35.5%), Keenan Allen (34.9%), Puka Nacua (34.5%), Amon-Ra St. Brown (34.2%), and Jakobi Meyers, who has been targeted on 32% of his routes.

Juju Smith-Schuster led all wide receivers in targets per route run during Week 9  matchups (36.8%). CeeDee Lamb and Tank Dell were next (31.4%), followed by Jakobi Meyers (31.3%), Davante Adams (30.4%), DeAndre Hopkins (29.7%), Tyreek Hill (29.4%), A.J. Brown (29%), and Jaylen Waddle, who was targeted on 28.6% of his routes. Odell Beckham was next (28%), followed by Marquise Brown (27.6%), Tutu Atwell (26.9%), and two receivers who were targeted on 26.7% of their routes -Chris Olave, and Michael Pittman.

Yards Per Route Run 

Brandon Aiyuk leads all wide receivers with an average of 4.37 yards per route run from Weeks 1-9. Tyreek Hill is second overall (4.14), followed by A.J. Brown (3.41), CeeDee Lamb (3.28), Keenan Allen (3.03), Puka Nacua (2.97), Amon-Ra St. Brown (2.96) and Nico Collins, who is averaging 2.88 yards per route run.

Amari Cooper is next (2.78), followed by Mike Evans (2.63), Jaylen Waddle (2.55), Davante Adams (2.54), and DeAndre Hopkins, who is averaging 2.52 yards per route run.

Amari Cooper also led all wide receivers with an average of 5.15 yards per route run in Week 9. Noah Brown was second (4.78), followed by CeeDee Lamb (3.75), Kyle Phillips (3.40), Tank Dell (3.26), Juju Smith-Schuster (2.68), and Mike Evans, who averaged 2.64 yards per route run. Diontae Johnson was next (2.57), followed by Tee Higgins (2.56), Jakobi Meyers (2.38), and Darnell Mooney, who averaged 2.34 yards per route run.

Red Zone Targets  

Davante Adams leads all wide receivers with 17 red zone targets entering Week 10. Ja’Marr Chase and Michael Pittman are tied for second overall (15), followed by D.K. Metcalf (14), and two receivers that have been targeted 13 times - Tyreek Hill, and Stefon Diggs.

Four different receivers have collected 12 targets inside the 20 - Garrett Wilson, Jordan Addison, Chris Godwin, and Romeo Doubs, while six different receivers have accumulated 11 - Adam Thielen, DeAndre Hopkins, Jakobi Meyers, Drake London, Tyler Lockett, and Rashee Rice.

Tyreek Hill, Davante Adams, and Jakobi Meyers have all accrued a league-high nine targets inside the 10-yard line, while four different receivers have been targeted seven times -  Ja’Marr Chase, Keenan Allen, Chris Godwin, and Romeo Doubs. Tyreek Hill, Ja’Marr Chase, and Jaylen Waddle have all captured a league-high five targets inside the 5-yard line.

11 different receivers were targeted twice in the red zone during their Week 9 matchups, including Tee Higgins, Jahan Dotson, and Nico Collins. Odell Beckham, Jr., and Ja’Marr Chase, accumulated two targets inside the 10-yard line.

Snaps

DeVonta Smith leads all wide receivers with 599 snaps from Weeks 1-9. Michael Pittman is second overall (579), followed by A.J. Brown (571), Alec Pierce (554), D.J. Moore (525), Puka Nacua (514), and Marquise Brown, who has accumulated 503 offensive snaps. Terry McLaurin is next (494), followed by two receivers who have accrued 493 snaps - Gabe Davis, and Chris Olave. Adam Thielen is next (491), followed by Darius Slayton (489), Zay Flowers (486), and Stefon Diggs, who has played on 485 offensive snaps entering Week 10.

Michael Pittman leads all wide receivers with a  97.5% snap share from Weeks 1-9. DeVonta Smith is second (97.1%), followed by Cooper Kupp (95.8%), Ja’Marr Chase (93.6%), Alec Pierce (93.3%), D.J. Moore (92.6%), A.J. Brown (92.5%), Garrett Wilson (91.2%), and Adam Thielen, who has attained a snap share of 90.6%.

Garrett Wilson led all wide receivers with 75 offensive snaps during the Jets’ Week 9 matchup with the Chargers. Jordan Addison, and Adam Thielen, accumulated 71 snaps, followed by Jonathan Mingo (70), Allen Lazard (68), Terry McLaurin (66), CeeDee Lamb 66, D.J. Moore 62, and Ja’Marr Chase, who played on 62 snaps in Week 9.

Adam Thielen and Alec Pierce both played on 100% of their team's offensive snaps in Week 9. Jonathan Mingo was third overall 98.6%, followed by Garrett Wilson (97.4%), Jordan Addison (97.3%), D.J. Moore (96.9%), A. J. Brown (96.6%), and Stefon Diggs, who played on 94.6% of Buffalo’s offensive snaps in Week 9.

Five Things I Noticed

1. One of the most intriguing matchups in Week 9 took place in Frankfurt, Germany, where two of the league’s top three passing attacks were on display.

The ramifications were significant for fantasy managers who were invested in members of a Miami passing attack that was averaging a league-best 305.1 yards per game and a third-ranked Kansas City aerial attack that was averaging 276.3 yards per game.

This matchup also presented Tyreek Hill with the first opportunity to face his former team since the trade that sent him from Kansas City to Miami. It initially appeared that Hill could have difficulty replicating the numbers that he had stockpiled during his tenure with the Chiefs.

.@cheetah is TOO FAST 😮‍💨😮‍💨😮‍💨

📺: #MIAvsPHI on @SNFonNBC pic.twitter.com/v8uWlT4GWI

— Miami Dolphins (@MiamiDolphins) October 23, 2023

Hill was third among all wide receivers with 6,037 yards (80.5 per game) from 2017 to 2021. He was also second in touchdowns (50) and led all wide receivers with 452 rushing yards during that span. Hill had also accrued 625 targets (8.3 per game) and collected 418 receptions (5.8 per game) during those contests.

Sustaining exceptional usage and production ultimately has not been an issue for Hill since he resurfaced with the Dolphins. He entered Week 9 having accumulated 257 targets (10.3 per game), 180 receptions (7.2 per game), 2,724 yards (109 per game), and 15 touchdowns during his first 25 games with Miami.

1️⃣ + 🔟 = 6️⃣

That's Fins math. pic.twitter.com/Fa7HbRv4b9

— Miami Dolphins (@MiamiDolphins) October 29, 2023

Hill had also entered Week 9 with a league-high 1,014 receiving yards (126.8 per game). He was leading the league in targets per route run (38.5%), and yards per route run (4.49), was second in receptions (61/7.6 per game), third in targets (87/10.9 per game), and fourth in air yards (965).

Hill ultimately accumulated 57 snaps and ran 34 routes during Miami’s Week 9 matchup with Kansas City. He also secured a 30.3% target share, which was the eighth highest among all receivers in Week 9. Hill secured 10 targets and has now reached double digits in six of his nine matchups, including each of his last four. Hill also collected eight receptions, which was the sixth time he has eclipsed 8+ this season, which includes each of his last three games.

However, Hill also accrued 62 receiving yards which was his third-lowest total of the season, and the first time that he did not accumulate 88+ since Week 4. Hill’s 7.8 yards per reception also established a season-low, while he accumulated 72 air yards, and attained a 26.2% air yards share. He was also targeted on 29.4% of his routes and averaged 1.82 yards per route run. Hill’s fumble that was returned for a 59-yard Kansas City touchdown will remain the most widely-discussed play from his first encounter with his former team.

This is WILD!

Chiefs force a Tyreek Hill fumble and then lateral the ball for a touchdown!

(Via: NFL)pic.twitter.com/bUUbbekb43

— Sunday Night Football on NBC (@SNFonNBC) November 5, 2023

Hill also completed the contest with 12.5 points, which was his second-lowest total of the season. However, he still leads the league with an average of 24.9 per game. Anyone who has Hill contained on their rosters can now look forward to his return from Miami’s bye when the Dolphins host Las Vegas in Week 11.

2. The return of Diontae Johnson has delivered a belated reward to fantasy managers for their decision to select the fifth-year receiver in Round 6 during draft season (63/WR25).

Pittsburgh's Week 8 first-read target rate, per @FantasyPtsData

37% -- Diontae Johnson
22% -- Connor Heyward
19% -- George Pickens

— Jacob Gibbs (@jagibbs_23) October 31, 2023

Kenny Pickett has distributed 59.8% of his passes to Pittsburgh’s wide receivers since Week 7, which ranks 13th overall  Johnson has commandeered a 31.2% share, while George Pickens is second (20.4%), and no other Steelers have reached a 13% share during that span.

This has propelled Johnson to a team-high 29 targets in three games since he reemerged, which places him sixth among all wide receivers. He has also averaged 9.7 per game, which expanded to 11.5 per game since Week 8. Johnson is also tied for fifth overall with 20 receptions (6.7 per game) and is fifth in receiving yards (254/84.7 per game).

Diontae Johnson vs. the Titans

⚫️ 145.4 passer rating when targeted
🟡 3.10 yards per route run
⚫️ 1 TD 🙌 pic.twitter.com/MI5yEqL3Vs

— PFF PIT Steelers (@PFF_Steelers) November 3, 2023

Johnson has run 110 routes during that three-game sequence, has been targeted on 26.4% of those routes, and has averaged 2.31 yards per route run. He is also eighth in air yards (313), and ninth in air yards share (43.1%).

🚨 DIONTAE JOHNSON HAS FINALLY SCORED A TOUCHDOWN 🚨
pic.twitter.com/6UfFOvFM0t

— PFF Fantasy Football (@PFF_Fantasy) November 3, 2023

Johnson also generated his first touchdown since Week 17 of the 2021 regular season, when Pittsburgh hosted Tennessee in Week 9. That brought a welcome conclusion to an unwanted streak of 655 days without generating a touchdown.

George Pickens has been targeted 18 times (6.0 per game) during the three matchups since Johnson’s return. He has also accrued eight receptions (2.7 per game) while assembling 128 receiving yards (42.7 per game). Pickens had been averaging 8.3 targets, 4.3 receptions, and 89.3 yards per game from Weeks 2-6, while Johnson remained unavailable.

George Pickens’ highlight tape from TNF 🔥

Pickens finished with:

2 Receptions
-1 Receiving Yards pic.twitter.com/H0TD1SVRvs

— NFL Retweet (@NFLRT) November 3, 2023

Since Week 8, Pickens’ target share has diminished to 15.7%, while he was limited to a season-low five targets in two consecutive outings. Pickens has also accumulated a total of just three receptions and 21 yards. That includes his numbers in Week 9 when Pickens was limited to two catches and finished with -1 receiving yards. He easily established season-lows in yards per target (-0.20), yards per reception (-0.50), yards before catch (-1), and yards after catch (0).

Pickens had also accrued 424 air yards and had soared to third among all receivers with a 50.7% air yards share from Weeks 2-6. He was also fifth overall in targets per route run (35.9%), and was sixth in yards per route run (3.88). Since Week 7, Pickens has been targeted on 17.3% of his routes and is averaging 1.23 yards per route run. He has also accumulated 273 air yards while attaining a 37.6% air yards share.

Johnson is also averaging 17.1 points per game since Week 7, which places him 10th overall. Pickens had been averaging 16.6 points per game from Weeks 2-6 but is averaging 8.9 since Week 7. Johnson should operate as a high-end WR3/WR2 for managers, while the extensive targeting of Johnson has fueled Pickens' descent into low-end WR3/WR4 territory. 

3. Jahan Dotson appeared positioned to exceed the expectations of his ADP during draft season (76/WR33) as he entered Week 1. There was also legitimate rationale for believing that Dotson could deliver a breakout season during his second year with Washington.

This was partially fueled by his late-season statistical surge in 2022, when Dotson led the Commanders in multiple categories from Weeks 15-18 including targets (26/6.5 per game), receptions (16/4.0 per game), receiving yards 290/72.5 per game), air yards (361), targets per route run (22.2%), and yards per route run (2.48).

Unfortunately, Dotson’s numbers through Washington’s first six matchups of the season were highly disappointing for fantasy managers who
had envisioned Dotson operating as a high-end WR3 or beyond.

Dotson averaged 5.2 targets, just 2.3 receptions, and only 23.3 yards per game from Weeks 1-6. He registered a 15.3% target share, failed to exceed three receptions during four different games, and only surpassed 30 yards once. This uninspiring sequence culminated with Dotson being relegated to one target, and failing to register a reception in Week 6 - even though he secured an 80% snap share, and accumulated a team-high 27 routes.

This throw and catch from @Sam7Howell & @JahanDotson 😤

📺: #WASvsNE on FOX
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/d4RDZpcMkc pic.twitter.com/wguA4tDUcj

— NFL (@NFL) November 5, 2023

However, Dotson has averaged 8.7 targets per game since Week 7, while capturing 8+ in all three of his matchups. His target share has risen to 19.2%, while he has also averaged 5.7 receptions/73.3 yards per game. He has also vaulted to 10th overall in targets (26), and 10th in receiving yards (220), while also rising to 11th in receptions.

Dotson had also failed to register a reception of 20+ yards from Weeks 1-6 and had registered just 4.5 yards yards per target, and 8.2 yards per reception, with an aDOT of 8.4. Since Week 7, Dotson has also accumulated four receptions of 20+ yards, while his numbers have also improved in yards per target (8.5), yards per reception (12.9), and aDOT (10.3).

Dotson has also been targeted on 20.2% of his routes while averaging 1.99 yards per route run since Week 8. Dotson has also averaged 100 air yards per game while securing a 26.2% air yards share during that two-game span. He had been averaging 43 air yards per game while operating with a 17.1% air yards share from Weeks 1-6. He was also targeted on just 13.1% of his routes and was only averaging 0.59 yards per route run.

Curtis Samuel was sidelined with a toe injury in Week 9 but should return when Washington visits Seattle on Sunday.  However, Dotson's prospects for sustaining his recent statistical surge remain favorable regardless of Samuel's status. He is operating in a Washington offense that leads the league in pass-play percentage (67.9%). Sam Howell enters Week 10 with a league-high 353 passing attempts and is second among all signal callers with 2,471 passing yards (284.6 per game).

SAM. HAN. TOUCHDOWN.

📺 #PHIvsWAS: FOX pic.twitter.com/YfvWIxHyTP

— Washington Commanders (@Commanders) October 29, 2023

Terry McLaurin is averaging 9.7 targets/75.3 yards per game) since Week 7, although Dotson has attained a higher average in receptions per game (5.7/5.3). Dotson is also 11th overall with an average of 17 points per game since Week 7 while McLaurin is averaging 14.9.

Despite the initial frustration that was experienced by managers earlier in the season, Dotson has now emerged as a viable WR3. That should be beneficial for anyone who is attempting to navigate remaining bye weeks and other roster challenges.

4. Christian Kirk and Calvin Ridley entered their Week 9 bye with a combined 43.7% target share (Kirk 22.2%), (Ridley 21.5%), while tight end Evan Engram led Jacksonville with a 22.6% share. The  Jaguars ranked 10th in scoring (24.1 points per game), which nearly replicated their average during 2022 (23.8 points per game). Jacksonville is also 25th in pass play percentage (55.4%), which represents a decline when contrasted with their ranking of 14th in 2022 (58.9%).

16 a grown man.@Trevorlawrencee | #JAXvsBUF on FOX/NFLN pic.twitter.com/STRAFgnyIN

— Jacksonville Jaguars (@Jaguars) October 8, 2023

The reinstatement of Ridley had fueled a surge in anticipation surrounding his prospects of regaining the level of proficiency that he had delivered during his 2020 breakout season. Ridley’s arrival also impacted the outlook for Kirk, whose ADP was stationed in Round 6 during draft season (64/WR 26).

Christian Kirk is fast and the Jaguars have the lead 💯#JAXvsNO on Prime Video
Also available on #NFLPlus https://t.co/89nUeCngbn pic.twitter.com/SQfWTMpTUg

— NFL (@NFL) October 20, 2023

However, Kirk leads Jacksonville’s wide receivers in multiple categories from Weeks 1-8. That includes his team-high 274 routes, while he is also pacing the Jaguars’ wide receivers with 60 targets (7.5 per game).

Doesn't get much better than this.@ckirk | #INDvsJAX on CBS/NFL+ pic.twitter.com/KyBsiMiMTD

— Jacksonville Jaguars (@Jaguars) October 15, 2023

Kirkis is also leading the Jaguars’ wide receivers in receptions (43/5.4 per game), receiving yards (520/65 per game), targets per route run (21.9%), yards after catch (174), and yards per route run (1.99). Kirk is also 23rd overall with an average of 13.9 points per game.

Anyone who selected Calvin Ridley near his Round 3 ADP during draft season (28/WR14), is experiencing unfulfilled expectations. He is currently 44th among all wide receivers with an average of 11.4 points per game.

Ridley has run 267 routes while accruing 58 targets (7.3 per game). Ridley is also 16th among all wide receivers with 740 air yards and 12th in air yards share (40.3%). He has also collected 33 receptions (4.1 per game) while generating 451 receiving yards (56.4 per game).

Slideee Rid@CalvinRidley1 | #JAXvsPIT on CBS/NFL+ pic.twitter.com/0xhIyaVyuG

— Jacksonville Jaguars (@Jaguars) October 29, 2023

Ridley had eclipsed a double-digit target total in Week 1 (11), and Week 8 (10), while averaging 6.2 per game from Weeks 2-7. However, he has accumulated 30 targets (7.5 per game) since Week 5, while Kirk has collected 25 (6.3 per game) during that four-game span.

Kirk had eclipsed 12+ targets in two of his three matchups from Weeks 2-4 while averaging 10.7 per game. However, his average dropped to 5.7 per game from Weeks 6-9, as he failed to exceed six targets during all three matchups.

Kirk still edged Ridley in receptions per game (4.8/4.5) and yards per game (65.8/60) from Weeks 5-9, while Ridley leads the tandem in targets per route run (22.6%/18.9%), air yards (417/227), and air yards share (45.6%/24.8%).

A protracted knee injury has sidelined Zay Jones for five games, although he should return for the Jaguars’ Week 10 matchup with San Francisco. Jones has averaged 6.0 targets/2.7 receptions/26 yards per game and will siphon a percentage of opportunities from Ridley and Kirk when he resurfaces. However, Kirk should deliver high-end WR3 output during his upcoming matchups, while Ridley should be deployed as a WR3.

5. Demario Douglas has now operated with a 75.2% snap share during his last three matchups. The transformation in his season since Week 7  has also presented the talented rookie with a prospective path toward functioning as New England’s WR1 throughout the remainder of the season.

Douglas accumulated 2,193 yards during his collegiate career at Liberty, including 1,694 yards during his final two seasons (2021/2022). The 5’8”, 165-pound Douglas was the 28th wide receiver to be selected during last April’s NFL Draft when New England secured him with the 210th overall pick. Douglas was drafted 23 spots after Kayshon Boutte, who had also been selected by the Patriots during the same round.

Demario Douglas is a future Super Star ⭐️ pic.twitter.com/cNLa72oxUK

— Boston Cream 🍩 (@itsbostoncream) November 5, 2023

Douglas attained a 41% snap share during the Patriots’ season opener, but his share dropped to an average of 19.5% from Weeks 2-5. Douglas was also sidelined by a concussion in Week 6 and entered Week 7 averaging 3.4 targets, 2.0 receptions, and 28.6 yards per game.

However, Douglas has eclipsed a 77% snap share in each of his last two outings, including the season-high 83% that he attained in Week 9. Douglas leads the Patriots in routes run (101) during that sequence, is averaging 6.7 targets per game, and has accumulated seven during each of his last two outings. He is also averaging 4.7 receptions per game, after collecting five in Weeks 8 and 9. Douglas is also averaging 44.7 yards per game, which has been fueled by two contests with 54+.

In the wake of Kendrick Bourne's ACL tear, #Patriots showed they don't view Rd 6 rookie WR Demario Douglas as a mere slot. Pop yesterday:

* 53-of-64 snaps
* 34 WIDE, 19 slot (previously was in slot on 82% of snaps)
* 38 routes on 46 Mac Jones dropbacks
* 7 targets for a 15.9%…

— Adam Levitan (@adamlevitan) November 6, 2023

Douglas also leads New England in each of those categories since Week 7, while also pacing the team in air yards (126), and securing a 19% air yards share. He has been targeted on 19.8% of his routes while averaging 1.33 yards per route run.

Kendrick Bourne had been leading the Patriots in targets (55/6.9 per game), receptions 37 (4.7 per game), and receiving yards 406 (50.8 per game) before he sustained a torn ACL during New England’s Week 8 matchup at Miami. DeVante Parker suffered a concussion during that same contest.

JuJu Smith-Schuster also contended with a concussion which sidelined him in Weeks 6-7. He is currently operating with career-low averages in both receptions per game (3.0), and yards per game (20). Boutte has been a non-entity while being relegated to 55 snaps and four targets from Weeks 1-9.

Demario Douglas may not be big but he compensates with incredible hands and a surprising catch radius.#Patriots pic.twitter.com/kINxpJGjCe

— Henry McKenna (@henrycmckenna) November 5, 2023

A full return to health from New England’s veteran wide receivers could conceivably impede Douglas from operating as New England's primary receiving weapon on a weekly basis. However, Bourne was previously the only Patriot wide receiver to accumulate numbers with any level of consistency this season.

This contributes to the rationale for believing that Douglas can operate as a WR3 for fantasy managers. Anyone who is participating in leagues where Douglas still remains available on the waiver wire should seize him this week.

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