Just two years ago, the Braves were coming off a 96-win season and a division title. They boasted a core of young talent that seemed poised to make Atlanta a force in the years to come. This group included Jason Heyward, Andrelton Simmons, Freddie Freeman, Justin Upton, Julio Teheran, Alex Wood, and Craig Kimbrel. All were 26 or younger, and all were under team control for at least two more seasons. Only Freeman and Teheran remain, and the Braves are headed for a rebuild after losing 95 games in 2015.

Plenty of factors contributed to this sudden collapse. Today, we’ll take a closer look at the two starting pitchers from the above group. Each entering their age-25 seasons, Teheran and Wood will look to rebound from forgettable years. Which one represents the better fantasy value in 2016?

Teheran

Perhaps more than with any other player, I was particularly vocal about my lack of confidence in Teheran both before and during the season. Where others saw a 24 year old coming off a season in which he’d posted a 2.89 ERA and 1.08 WHIP, I saw far too many red flags to justify the price tag. Teheran’s velocity was the most concerning issue. He’d lost nearly three MPH on his fastball since breaking into the majors in 2011, an alarming trend for any pitcher, but particularly for one ostensibly in his physical prime. Teheran’s flyball-heavy profile seemed dangerous given this loss of velocity and the questionable outfield defense behind him.

There was a case to be made that my view of Teheran was overly pessimistic. After all, despite the decline in velocity, his swinging strike rate had actually been trending up. While his strikeouts were down a bit, his walk rate remained excellent and most of his batted ball data didn’t suggest any imminent danger.

Teheran ended up one of the bigger fantasy disappointments of the season, but it didn’t go exactly as one might have anticipated. He actually allowed more grounders than flies for the first time in his career, and had a virtually identical strikeout rate to the previous season. The long ball still ended up being an issue, however. More surprisingly, his BB% spiked by nearly three percentage points. The cause was fairly simple – hitters simply stopped chasing as much. Teheran’s O-Swing% fell from 33.2% to 28.7%.

Teheran did show some signs of improvement in the second half, as better pitch selection led to an increased strikeout rate. However, he continued to struggle with walks and home runs.

Wood

My preseason opinion of Wood was the polar opposite of Teheran; like most fantasy owners, I anticipated another step forward. Despite transitioning from swingman duties to a full-time rotation spot in 2014, Wood had maintained his batter per inning whiff rate and showed improved command, offsetting a HR/FB% that had nearly doubled.

Wood struggled early, in large part due to some seriously shaky defense behind him. But he was also failing to miss bats. As the year went on, his inflated BABIP fell, particularly after being traded to the Dodgers. The strikeouts, however, did not return. Wood’s K/9 plummeted to 6.6 and his K% fell nearly seven percentage points, easily the biggest decline among qualified starters.

Unlike Teheran, this wasn’t due to a change in opponents’ approach. Hitters posted virtually identical swing rates both in and out of the strike zone against Wood in each of the last two seasons. They simply made more, and better, contact on pitches outside the zone.

One possible explanation is a change in repertoire and pitch selection. Last season, Wood began throwing a two-seam fastball with regularity, at the expense of his four-seamer. To put it mildly, this pitch didn’t generate many whiffs; hitters missed just 5.5% of those two-seamers. Maybe that number comes up as he grows more comfortable with the pitch or tinkers with the grip, but early returns suggest he might be better off junking it and going back to the four-seamer.

Who Ya Got?

Being honest, neither pitcher is likely to be high on my draft board. But if I had to pick one, it’d be Wood. He’ll have a better team and a better group of fielders backing him up, and I’d expect him to shelve the two-seam fastball if it continues to be a below-average pitch. He’s also likely to cost a bit less to acquire than Teheran will.

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