RADIO
It's Week 13 and the injuries are really starting to pile up now. It's been a trend all season, but now in the playoff push, some of these injuries and waiver wire adds are going to end up being league winners. And if not league winners, certainly guys who are going to help decide who gets to go dancing.
Jamaal Williams, Alexander Mattison and Chuba Hubbard could all be playing leading roles in the short-term with the injuries to the starters ahead of them. After a very slow start, Brandon Aiyuk has the chance to shine as bright as he did last season with Deebo Samuel likely going to miss the next 1–2 weeks.
No one ever wants to see injuries, but they do give other players the opportunity to shine. Hopefully, some of these new faces that are getting the chance to step into the spotlight are waiting on your bench, ready to help you make a move into a playoff spot. However, when those new studs come to light, the easy decision becomes who to add, but the more difficult decision is often who to get rid of, so let's get to it.
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Quarterbacks to Drop for Week 13?
Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers
66.3% rostered
Sam Darnold has begun throwing again and will be re-evaluated after the Week 13 bye. Fantasy managers shouldn't expect Darnold to become the starter in Week 14 as Carolina has already come out and said Newton will be the starter in Week 14. Here's the thing though: any quarterback who has the probability of being benched mid-game is not someone I want to roster.
Already dreading the week's Cam discourse
Newton benched after 5/21, 92 YDS, 0 TD, 2 INTs.
Also 3 carries for 5 yards and a TD
— Kevin Cole (@KevinColePFF) November 28, 2021
The loss of Christian McCaffrey cannot be understated and it will no doubt have a large impact on the overall effectiveness of the offense. The receiving weapons in Carolina are mediocre at best. That's no disrespect to D.J. Moore who is a stud, but after that, the cabinet is very bare. Newton has struggled as a passer for several years now, but the upside was there because of his rushing ability and his high probability of finding the end zone on the ground. With the loss of Christian McCaffrey, the question becomes how often are the Panthers going to be in a position for Newton to run in a score? The ceiling has significantly been lowered and the floor is now zero with the possibility that he could be yanked in any game. Fantasy managers cannot dare take that risk in a win-or-go-home matchup.
Running Backs to Drop for Week 13?
Zack Moss, Buffalo Bills
68.5% rostered
Moss was a healthy scratch in Week 12 as the Bills decided to move forward with Devin Singletary and Matt Breida. After the way these two performed last week, there's no reason to expect anything different moving forward. Singletary and Breida combined for 7o yards on 24 carries. That's certainly nothing to get excited about and the fantasy prospects of all the Bills' running backs is significantly limited, but Singletary and Breida did enough on the ground to keep defenses honest. Moss's best asset is in short-yardage situations, but the Bills already have someone who excels there. It just so happens that person for the Bills is their quarterback, Josh Allen.
Even if Moss does end up being active in the next week or two, he's clearly No. 3 on the depth chart and fantasy managers can never feel confident trusting him, especially when so many teams are fighting for their playoff lives. If an injury happens to one of the top-two guys, then everything changes. As of right now, there's no reason fantasy managers need to hang onto Moss.
Alex Collins, Seattle Seahawks
45.1% rostered
Collins was in the "Hold On" section last week and not really because of anything Collins had done, but rather simply by virtue of being the Seahawks' starting running back and the expectation the Seahawks' offense would eventually right the ship and get back on track. That logic may be right for a week the rest of the season, but predicting when that will be is impossible. Over the last three weeks since Russell Wilson has returned to the lineup, the Seahawks have scored 28 points total. The upside of Collins being the goal line back does not exist with an offense playing this poorly.
In half-PPR scoring, Collins has not scored more than six points since Week 6. He has not rushed for more than 45 yards since that time and doesn't have a single game with more than one catch since Week 5. Fantasy managers are looking for dependable players they can trust or players with a high ceiling. Unfortunately for Collins, he's neither and because of that, fantasy managers shouldn't feel obligated to keep him on their roster despite his status as the Seahawks' starting running back.
Wide Receivers to Drop for Week 13?
Marvin Jones, Jacksonville Jaguars
Laviska Shenault Jr., Jacksonville Jaguars
46.2% rostered / 70.2% rostered
Since these two players are on the same team, we're going to group them together. There's no way around it, the Jaguars' offense has been brutal this season. The Jaguars passing offense is currently ranked 26th in passing yards per game at just 207 per game. The offense as a whole is averaging just 15.7 points per game, which is 31st in the league. The next two weeks the Jaguars are going up against the Rams and Titans, both of which are on the road. That's going to be a trend for the rest of the year, as four of the remaining five games are on the road.
Over the past 10 weeks, Jones has only scored double-digit points on one occasion. During that time period, he's been held to under five points four separate times. He hasn't scored a touchdown since Week 6. He was in the "Hold On" section just a few weeks ago as he has continued to garner a good amount of targets and his air yards indicate better days should be ahead, but the three good games Jones has had this season appear to be the outlier. There's no trusting this passing offense.
Now, moving on to Shenault. He also recently got the benefit of the doubt with the season-ending injury to Jamal Agnew with the hopes he would move back into the slot, which always seemed best suited for his talents.
James O'Shaughnessy and Laquon Treadwell ran more routes than Laviska Shenault today
woof.
— Andrew Erickson™ (@AndrewErickson_) November 28, 2021
After such a showing in Week 12 where Laquon Treadwell ran more routes and played more snaps than Shenault, fantasy managers can safely tell themselves they've given Shenault more than enough chances. There's no reason to hang onto him any longer. Due to the limitations of the teams' passing offense, there is no upside fantasy managers can realistically be chasing here.
Tight Ends to Drop for Week 13?
Tyler Higbee, Los Angeles Rams
73.7% rostered
The only positive thing about Higbee is that he's a member of the Los Angeles Rams. I'm always skeptical of players whom when you think of the best things about them, the first and second and third thing that comes to mind is about their team or their quarterback or their role. To be sure, none of those things are bad, but at the end of the day, players need to be good enough to take advantage of all of those positive aspects. Higbee has never shown he's that kind of player.
During Higbee's career, he has five games with 70 receiving yards or more. All five games came at the tail end of the 2019 season during that epic five-game stretch. He did not have a single 70-yard game before that five-game stretch and he hasn't had a single one after it either. Over his last 26 games, he's only had 50 or more receiving yards six times.
Because of that, Higbee has virtually no upside outside of him scoring two touchdowns. He is the definition of a touchdown-dependent player, and without one, he's going to live between that 3–8 point range. Chances are Higbee is your starting tight end, so to drop him means you'll need to pick someone else up. If there aren't any other better options, then you're forced to hang onto him, but Higbee should be treated as a streamer.
On the Hot Seat
Emmanuel Sanders, Buffalo Bills
69.8% rostered
Sanders hasn't posted more than 30 yards receiving in the last three games. In the last five games, he has just 146 receiving yards and zero touchdowns. That amounts to just 2.9 points per game. In that five-week span, fantasy managers were also treated to a big ol' goose egg. So why should fantasy managers be keeping the faith?
Emmanuel Sanders over his first six games: 15 PPR points per game
Emmanuel Sanders over his last four games: 5.8 PPR points per game
— JJ Zachariason (@LateRoundQB) November 22, 2021
There's no way fantasy managers can be putting Sanders into their starting lineup, but his role is one with a lot of value. Fantasy managers saw that upside in the first six weeks of the season and his role hasn't changed, just the production. It's certainly not ideal, but fantasy managers should try to hold on. Sanders is still in the top-20 in air yards per game and his average depth of target is second in the NFL among receivers averaging at least three targets per game and who have played in at least six games.
That role on an offense like Buffalo's with a quarterback like Josh Allen is eventually going to start paying dividends again. While fantasy managers certainly need to move Sanders onto their bench, he shouldn't be sent packing.
Hold On
Kenny Golladay, New York Giants
62.8% rostered
Golladay's first season in New York has been a disaster. There's a lot of reasons that has been the case, but maybe none bigger than injuries. However, Golladay is likely the healthiest he's been all season.
Kenny Golladay had a 24.1% target share today, his highest share since Week 2 (25.0%).
— JJ Zachariason (@LateRoundQB) November 29, 2021
With Sterling Shepard and Kadarius Toney banged up, Golladay has the opportunity to lead this receiving group in targets week in and week out for the rest of the season. That won't mean he'll always give fantasy managers the production they're looking for, but the opportunity is there for Golladay to return some of the value he was drafted at.
Over the last five games of the fantasy football season, Golladay has three games against opponents allowing the fifth, sixth, and ninth-most points to opposing wide receivers. If Shepard and Toney cannot get healthy, Golladay could be looking at a very healthy target share in several very appealing fantasy matchups.
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