Who Should I Start? Fantasy Baseball Start/Sit Decisions for Austin Riley, Alex Bregman, Andrew Abbott, Gavin Williams, more

July 16, 2023

Quickly get start 'em sit 'em advice for Who Should I Start fantasy baseball lineup questions from 7/17 - 7/23 (2023). Connelly tells you who to start and sit.

Welcome RotoBallers to my fantasy baseball start/sit article for the week ahead, July 17 - July 23. This week's article will focus on Nick Castellanos, Lane Thomas, Austin Riley, Alex Bregman, Andrew Abbott, Gavin Williams, Kyle Hendricks, and Aaron Civale.

Whether you are prepping to set your weekly lineups or determining who to play in a pivotal daily matchup, choosing who to start vs. sit is one of the most nerve-wracking and potentially frustrating aspects of fantasy baseball. Fortunately, there is a free solution available at RotoBaller. The Who Should I Start Tool allows you to quickly compare any two players and receive fantasy projections for today, tomorrow, or the current week.

The tool provides rankings, projections, recent news, and schedules side-by-side to aid in your decision-making. The tool defaults to ESPN scoring, but the Premium version within Team Sync will automatically use your league's scoring and roster settings when making recommendations. Each week, I will use the tool to review a few interesting start/sit comparisons for the final day of the period and preview the following week. Hopefully, this series will help both daily fantasy managers end their weeks strong and also get them comfortable with routinely using the tool during the week to make tough roster decisions. Let's get into some start vs. sit comparisons for the week ahead, July 17 - July 23!

Strong Outfielders

Nick Castellanos vs. Lane Thomas

Our first comparison is between two outfielders who were first-half fantasy All-Stars. Nick Castellanos and Lane Thomas have put up nearly identical numbers so far this season, hitting for both average and power while providing some steals. Which one is more likely to stay hot coming out of the break?

RotoBaller gives Thomas a strong recommendation for the rest of this week. The Nationals will get a favorable series at the Cardinals, while the Phillies will face a tough series at the Padres. The counting stat projections are pretty close, but Thomas has a clear edge in batting average and slugging percentage projections.

Looking ahead to Week 16, both teams will face tougher matchups. The Phillies will play three games against the Brewers and three at the Guardians, while the Nationals will play three at the Cubs and three against the Giants.

While both players have put up nearly identical numbers, Castellanos hits in a better lineup and has hit the ball hard compared to slightly below-average hard-hit metrics for Thomas. Both are safe bets as fantasy starters, but I prefer Castellanos.

Steady Third Basemen

Austin Riley vs. Alex Bregman

There are plenty of players who are solid fantasy options but don't receive a ton of hype, and this comparison is between two such players. Austin Riley and Alex Bregman have not received the attention they once had but have put up decent numbers, with .266/.327/.448 and .240/.338/.387 respective slash lines. Both hit in great lineups, but which one has the higher upside to start the second half?

Bregman gets a slight recommendation for the rest of this week. The Braves will face the White Sox while the Astros will be at the Angels. Riley has better counting stat projections but Bregman has much better strikeout and walk projections. As such, Riley may be a better start in roto leagues and Bregman in points leagues.

The Braves will face tough matchups the following week with three games against the Diamondbacks and three at the Brewers. On the other hand, the Astros get great matchups with two at the Rockies and four at the Athletics. Riley has hit for more power than Bregman but only has four more home runs to this point. Bregman has actually outpaced Riley in RBI with 56 to 44. Riley may finish the season as the more valuable fantasy player, but I'd prefer to start Bregman in the near term.

Freshman Starters

Andrew Abbott vs. Gavin Williams

We'll now turn our attention to two rookie starters who have already made a fantasy impression. Andrew Abbott has dazzled in his first seven starts, posting a 2.38 ERA with a 28.9% strikeout rate. Gavin Williams has had mixed results in his first four starts but is still considered a top pitching prospect. Which young pitcher should fantasy managers put their trust in?

Interestingly, Williams gets a slight recommendation for Saturday's matchups. Abbott is slated for a middling matchup against the Brewers while Williams will face a tough road matchup with the Rangers. Abbott has shown a high-end strikeout upside while avoiding runs. On the other hand, Williams hasn't really proven much yet but has only had four starts to do so. Factoring in Abbott's strong start and the matchup, I would prefer to start Abbott.

Both players will face tougher matchups the following week. Abbott appears slated to face the Giants and Williams is set to face the Phillies. It is relatively difficult to pick one pitcher over the other given how little they have both pitched in the big leagues. Once again, I would lean on Abbott given his impressive performance so far. That being said, both pitchers are worth rostering right now to see how they continue to fare.

Reliable Back-End Starters

Kyle Hendricks vs. Aaron Civale

Our final comparison is between two unexciting but consistent fantasy options. Kyle Hendricks has turned back the clock, posting a 3.04 ERA and 1.03 WHIP in nine starts. Aaron Civale has been equally solid with a 2.56 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in nine starts. Which starter offers fantasy managers the higher floor?

Both players will face tough matchups, but Hendricks receives a slight recommendation. He will face the Red Sox at home, while Civale will face the Rangers on the road. Hendricks has a longer track record of fantasy success, which helps give him the edge.

Looking to the following week, both pitchers are lined up for good matchups. Civale does draw the better matchup at the Pirates compared to Hendricks, who will likely face the Nationals. Both players offer little strikeout upside, but Civale clearly presents more. Hendricks has always been a crafty pitcher, but their different skill sets make me prefer Civale in favorable matchups and Hendricks in tougher matchups.

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