RADIO
On February 28, 2018, I came across a tweet from @BenRogers linking this video of all of Dez Bryant’s 2017 incompletions. The accompanying conclusion was that after watching the video, the majority of the incompletions were not Dez’s fault.
I decided to do my own investigation. Here are my observations and conclusions.
*Note: There were 66 passes to review and the video is about 15 minutes long, so please forgive the colloquial nature of my descriptions.
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Dez Bryant's Target Share in 2017
Incompletion 1: While this is not an easy catch, it is a flat-out drop by Dez. The ball was placed perfectly. Sure, it may have been jarred loose by an imminent hit from the defender, but Dez didn’t even provide the defender with the opportunity to make a play. He just dropped it. It absolutely should have been caught.
Incompletion 2: Basically a throw away. This was not on Dez.
Incompletion 3: Dak Prescott threw up a duck and Dez did not adjust quick enough, but I can’t put that on Dez.
Incompletion 4: Dez was open and Dak flat out missed him.
Incompletion 5: Dez wasn’t open so Dak essentially threw it away by throwing it wide of the end zone.
Incompletion 6: Dak placed the ball perfectly, but the defender made a nice play. I won’t put this one on Dez, but it is fair to criticize Dez’s cut on the slant. If Dez was more aggressive, perhaps he could’ve caught the ball.
Incompletion 7: This was an open drop by Dez. 100% Dez’s fault.
Incompletion 8: Perfect ball placement by Dak. Dropped by Dez. A really bad drop.
Incompletion 9: Dak and Dez were not on the same page. Clear miscommunication. No way to know whether Dez ran the wrong route, missed an audible from Dak, or it was just an option route where the QB and the WR saw different things. No assignment of blame here.
Incompletion 10: Dez was not open and he had no way of being open. Dez actually prevented an interception here.
Incompletion 11: Dak threw it low, but there is no excuse – a player of Dez’s caliber needs to make that catch. It’s a drop.
Incompletion 12: This was either a throw away or just a bad throw. Either way, not Dez’s fault.
Incompletion 13: Dez had the inside track on this pass and Dak missed him. This was on Dak.
Incompletion 14: Dez was open enough for Dak to deliver the ball properly and he didn’t. This is also on Dak.
Incompletion 15: Dez was unable to separate from the cornerback and Dak essentially threw it away. One can argue that Dak should’ve thrown the ball in play and given Dez a shot. It’s not a ridiculous position. But my interpretation is that Dak expected Dez to be open and he wasn’t so Dak threw it out of bounds. I’m putting this one on Dez.
Incompletion 16: There was a window to get Dez the ball or at least give him a shot to make a play. Barring a horrendous throw on the inside, this ball was never getting picked. This is on Dak.
Incompletion 17: The throw wasn’t perfect, but Dez needs to make that catch. It’s a drop.
Incompletion 18: Dez had no shot to catch this one, but it’s not fair to immediately assume it was Dak’s fault. It’s entirely possible that Dez was supposed to run a back shoulder and instead he ran a go. I’m not putting this on Dez, but I’m not putting it on Dak either.
Incompletion 19: Dak threw the ball behind Dez. It looked like Dez couldn’t get his right hand in position quick enough. The ball was probably catchable, but I can’t put that on Dez.
Incompletion 20: Not an easy catch, but one Dez has to make. The ball was exactly where it needed to be. It’s a drop.
Incompletion 21: Dak overthrew Dez. This was not on Dez.
Incompletion 22: Dak didn’t have enough mustard on the ball or he threw it too late. Either way, not Dez’s fault.
Incompletion 23: Dez was never open, but Dak threw it anyway. This was not Dez’s fault.
Incompletion 24: Dez was open enough and Dak missed him.
Incompletion 25: Dez was open and Dak missed him.
Incompletion 26: This was a back shoulder throw that Dak misplaced. This was not on Dez.
Incompletion 27: Dez ran a good route and the defender made a nice play. This was not on Dez.
Incompletion 28: Dak made a fine throw and the defender made the play. Dez didn’t get open though.
Incompletion 29: Dez got both of his hands on the ball, but the defender snuck his hands in and separated them from the ball. Good play. This was not on Dez.
Incompletion 30: Dez was held and it wasn’t called, but probably still should’ve caught it. I am putting this on Dez.
Incompletion 31: Dez was interfered with and it wasn’t called. No one’s fault.
Incompletion 32: This one is 100% on Dak. Just an awful throw.
Incompletion 33: Dez’s out route wasn’t perfect, but he was open with enough time for Dak to place the ball properly and he didn’t. This is on Dak.
Incompletion 34: Dak doesn’t make a perfect throw, but the ball is in bounds and hits Dez in his hands. Dez dropped it.
Incompletion 35: Dak was under duress and just heaved it up in Dez’s general direction. A clear throw away.
Incompletion 36: The pass was batted away at the line.
Incompletion 37: The pass was batted away at the line.
Incompletion 38: The camera angle is tough to see clearly on this one, but it looks like Dez should’ve caught it. I am going to call this a drop.
Incompletion 39: Dez was completely blanketed and Dak overthrew him. Dez did a bad job getting open and Dak did a bad job throwing the ball in a spot where Dez could make a play. I blame both of them.
Incompletion 40: Dez was double covered and this ball never should’ve been thrown.
Incompletion 41: Dez wasn’t open and this ball never should’ve been thrown.
Incompletion 42: This ball was certainly high, but very catchable. This is a drop. It’s on Dez.
Incompletion 43: Dez was blanketed and Dak threw it anyway. This was not on Dez.
Incompletion 44: This was a perfect throw and Dez appeared to catch it before it was jarred loose by a defender. A replay shows that Dez did not secure the ball quickly like someone like DeAndre Hopkins is so adept at doing so it was still moving around when the defender got there. The hit wasn’t big, but since Dez hadn’t secured the ball, it was enough to jar it loose. This was on Dez.
Incompletion 45: The ball was batted at the line.
Incompletion 46: This was a ball that was low, but hit Dez right in the hands/chest. Needs to be caught. Clear drop.
Incompletion 47: This was a very tough catch in the midst of good defense. I will not blame Dez for this one.
Incompletion 48: Dez wasn’t really open, but Dak clearly overthrew him. This is on Dak.
Incompletion 49: Dak threw the ball out of the end zone. Dez never had a shot. He had a step on the defender, too. Completely on Dak.
Incompletion 50: Dez was blanketed by the defender and the ball probably shouldn’t have been thrown.
Incompletion 51: Dak just threw it into the ground.
Incompletion 52: Awful drop by Dez.
Incompletion 53: The ball was batted at the line.
Incompletion 54: Dez was not open and Dak should not have thrown it.
Incompletion 55: Dez made a cut to the outside and Dak threw it inside. 100% on Dak.
Incompletion 56: From the angle it is hard to tell how open Dez was, but Dak still made a horrible throw.
Incompletion 57: Dez was blanketed so Dak basically threw it away. This was not on Dez.
Incompletion 58: Dez was singled. Dak gave him a chance to make a play. The defender made a better play. No one is at fault here.
Incompletion 59: Dak threw the ball where he needed to and Dez actually caught it, but the defender’s body prevented Dez from getting his second foot in bounds. No one’s fault.
Incompletion 60: Dak overthrew Dez. Plain and simple. Dak’s fault.
Incompletion 61: Dez was open and Dak threw it too high. Dak’s fault.
Incompletion 62: Dak never gave Dez a chance. This was not on Dez.
Incompletion 63: The ball was batted at the line.
Incompletion 64: Dez was completely covered and Dak threw it anyway and didn’t make a good throw. This was not Dez.
Incompletion 65: Dez was practically run out of bounds so this was never being completed. This was not on Dez.
Incompletion 66: Dez was where he needed to be. The ball was not. This was not on Dez.
The video counts 132 targets, 10 drops, and 53 uncatchable balls. I counted 11 drops, two where Dez should’ve caught it, and 44 where it was clearly not Dez’s fault. The drops are unacceptable by any measure. Dez’s measured catchable target rate from playerprofiler.com was 74%. This video would lead you to believe it was actually 87%. So ultimately, a lot of this comes to down subjectivity regarding what is considered a catchable target. I reached a different conclusion than the creator of the video and both of our conclusions were different than what I was able to find online.
I went into this endeavor with the position that Dez was bad in 2017. I came out of this endeavor thinking not that Dez was actually still elite, but that Dak was a lot worse than I realized. I will admit that Dez wasn’t necessarily as bad as I thought, while still holding my position that Dez did not play anywhere near up to his potential. But Dak certainly made his fair share of bad throws/decisions.
Intermingled throughout the video are nice plays by Bryant. And by no means am I trying to say that he did not make any plays throughout the year. There were certainly times when he looked like vintage Dez Bryant. My issue with him is that it wasn’t all the time. It wasn’t anywhere near enough of the time. I’ve seen him dominate opposing defenses. I did not see that in 2017 and I watched damn near every minute of the Cowboys last season.
Now obviously I haven’t gone through every pass play ran by the Cowboys in 2017. But this video does not take into account plays designed where he was unable to get open, where he got locked down by cornerbacks he should beat, or where he wasn’t giving full effort. They happened. I saw them. So while I would love to sit here and tell you that, in actuality, Dez Bryant is still one of the best WRs in football and nothing that happened in 2017 was his fault, I can’t. And for fantasy purposes, even if Dak Prescott and certainly the coaching staff deserve their fair share of the blame, there are just so many factors working against Dez that I cannot possibly endorse him going forward.
With the Cowboys recent signings of Deonte Thompson and Allen Hurns, while acknowledging that they are certainly not elite receivers, I am hopeful this means the end of Bryant in Dallas. It is time for a new alpha WR1, even if it takes a year or two to find that guy.
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