X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

What To Do With Suspended Players On Draft Day: Brady And Bell

Following Tom Brady's four-game suspension on last month, many fantasy owners are left wondering what to do with star players on Draft Day. Ultimately the decision is your own, but today I'll examine some strategies for how to handle suspended studs.

 

Does Total Production Matter?

Let's dive into the Le'Veon Bell suspension first. Bell is going to miss the first three games of the season thanks to a marijuana possession charge (a nonsensical issue in my opinion, but that's a conversation for another day). There is a strong argument that Bell was the fantasy MVP last season, totaling 2,215 yards from scrimmage and 11 touchdowns. That was, of course, across 16 games. So let's assume he'll have similar ratios and project for 13 games--you get 1,799 yards from scrimmage and 8.9 touchdowns (we'll round up to nine). Those are STILL All-Pro numbers. Compare that to Justin Forsett, whose late-career breakout last year yielded 1,529 yards from scrimmage and eight touchdowns. At the end of the 2015 season, it's a pretty safe bet that Bell will end up a top five running back.

But ultimately, fantasy football is a weekly game. Head-to-head is the most common format, and it's difficult to justify using your first-round pick on a player who you won't have for the first three match-ups. You could quickly find yourself 0-3, and Bell's production from there on out may not be enough to help you climb back into the playoffs.

Editor’s Note: If you’re looking for a new, awesome, highly customizable and free option for year-round commissioner & dynasty leagues, something more capable than Yahoo, better looking than CBS, and built from the ground up with fantasy football in mind, play free fantasy football with our friends at Fleaflicker.

 

Production Versus Replacements

Now we'll look at Brady. In most formats, quarterbacks end up scoring the most points at the end of the season. Last year, Brady had an un-Brady-like season, as the Patriots got off to an extremely slow start before figuring things out. I don't anticipate this veteran repeating that trend, and he should improve on his passing totals. We'll use last year's numbers (4,109 passing yards and 33 TDs) and allow for a little improvement based off more recent years- let's make it a nice round 4,500 yards and 38 TDs.  If you project that out across 12 games, you end up with 3,375 yards and 28.5 (we'll round up to 29) TDs. That's an average of 281 yards and 2.4 touchdowns per game. We'll compare that to a player you might take in the same round given his new array of weapons--Eli Manning. Over 16 games he average 275 yards and 1.9 touchdowns. I expect Eli to improve a bit on the touchdowns now that he'll have a full season of Odell Beckham Jr. and Victor Cruz- round up to 290 yards and 2.5 touchdowns per game. That's a very small difference, less than one point per week in most leagues.

 

Making The Call

Here's where the decision becomes yours- do you take a guy like Brady or Bell early on in the draft, and slug it out for 3-4 weeks to reap the rewards in the final 12-13? Or is it wiser to take a replacement-level player and get consistent yet inferior production?

I am all about the consistency. Le'Veon Bell is arguably the best player in football, no doubt about it. But I simply can't burn my first-rounder on him (which you most definitely WILL have to do) and wait it out. Brady is an even easier call, as the difference in performance between him and a good number of other quarterbacks is much smaller than the difference between Bell and a character like Forsett.

The official @Roto_Dubs position is to pass on these players and let someone else suffer from the suspensions. In head-to-head match-ups, every week matters, and I won't take the hit through what is essentially a quarter of the season just to have a boost the rest of the way. 20 points per game is nice, but I'll take 16 weeks of 12-15. Don't get suckered in by the gaudy numbers--take the player that will produce all season long. 

Follow me @Roto_Dubs for more fantasy football and baseball insight throughout the year.

 

NFL & Fantasy Football Chat Room

[iflychat_embed id="c-0" hide_user_list="yes" hide_popup_chat="no" height="700px"]

 




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Reynaldo López10 mins ago

Reynaldo Lopez To Undergo Right-Shoulder Surgery
Gary Woodland13 mins ago

Showing Great Form Ahead Of Valero Texas Open
Akshay Bhatia19 mins ago

Aiming For Repeat At Valero Texas Open
Alejandro Tosti29 mins ago

A Volatile Choice At TPC San Antonio
NFL32 mins ago

Tush Push Unlikely To Be Banned For 2025 Season
Xavier Legette39 mins ago

Dave Canales Compares Xavier Legette To DK Metcalf
Brett de Geus49 mins ago

Phillies Claim Brett de Geus Off Waivers From Marlins
New York Giants52 mins ago

Ty Summers Re-Signs With New York
Nick Mears57 mins ago

Beginning Rehab Assignment At Triple-A
Aaron Civale1 hour ago

Plays Catch On Tuesday
Masataka Yoshida1 hour ago

Resumes Swinging
Sam Ehlinger1 hour ago

Signs One-Year Deal With Denver
Liam Hendriks1 hour ago

Resumes Throwing
Guerschon Yabusele1 hour ago

Out Against Knicks
Kutter Crawford1 hour ago

Hasn't Faced Hitters
Karl-Anthony Towns1 hour ago

Sits Out Tuesday's Game
Arizona Cardinals1 hour ago

Calais Campbell Returns To Arizona
Lucas Giolito2 hours ago

To Make A Rehab Start On Wednesday
Jevon Carter2 hours ago

Ruled Out Tuesday
Dalen Terry2 hours ago

Unavailable Against Raptors
Brayan Bello2 hours ago

To Make Rehab Start On Tuesday
Julian Phillips2 hours ago

Out On Tuesday
Alexis Díaz2 hours ago

Alexis Diaz Throws Live BP On Tuesday
Jalen Smith2 hours ago

Available Against Raptors
Max Scherzer2 hours ago

Day-To-Day After Getting Cortisone Shot
Lonzo Ball2 hours ago

Still Out On Tuesday
Freddie Freeman2 hours ago

Likely Out Until Friday
Kevin Huerter2 hours ago

Cleared For Tuesday's Matchup
Willson Contreras2 hours ago

Taking First Day Off
Josh Giddey2 hours ago

Will Play On Tuesday
Dalano Banton2 hours ago

Starting Against The Hawks
Royce O'Neale2 hours ago

Unavailable Against Bucks
Jerami Grant2 hours ago

Out Again On Tuesday
Bradley Beal2 hours ago

Out On Tuesday
Ron Holland II2 hours ago

Tagged With A One-Game Suspension Tuesday
Anfernee Simons2 hours ago

Ruled Out Versus The Hawks
Trae Young2 hours ago

Officially Available Tuesday
Marcus Sasser3 hours ago

Suspended For One Game On Tuesday
Giannis Antetokounmpo3 hours ago

Will Play On Tuesday
Jimmy Snuggerud3 hours ago

Ready For NHL Debut Tuesday
Edouard Julien3 hours ago

Making First Start Of The Season
Isaiah Stewart3 hours ago

Suspended For Two Games On Tuesday
Jacob Trouba3 hours ago

Set To Rejoin Ducks Lineup Tuesday
Jonathan Kuminga3 hours ago

Ruled Out On Tuesday
Troy Terry3 hours ago

On Track To Play Tuesday
Dylan Crews3 hours ago

Not Starting Against Blue Jays
Jaylen Brown3 hours ago

Questionable Versus Miami
Jonathan Marchessault3 hours ago

Remains Out Against Blue Jackets
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.3 hours ago

Sitting Out In New York
Alex Laferriere3 hours ago

Expected To Return On Tuesday
Paul Goldschmidt3 hours ago

Hitting Leadoff Again
Jonathan Aranda3 hours ago

Christopher Morel Sitting Against Pirates
Luke Schenn3 hours ago

A Game-Time Decision Tuesday
Jose Siri3 hours ago

Making Another Start In Center Field
Dante Fabbro4 hours ago

Returns Against Predators
Brett Baty4 hours ago

Sitting Against A Right-Hander
Kyle Higashioka4 hours ago

Back In The Lineup, Jonah Heim Takes A Seat
Detroit Lions6 hours ago

Alim McNeill Could Miss Start Of Regular Season
Tennessee Titans6 hours ago

Justin Hardee Sr. Returning To Titans
Washington Commanders6 hours ago

Brandon Coleman Moving To Right Tackle For Commanders
Raheem Blackshear6 hours ago

Returning To Carolina
Kirk Cousins6 hours ago

Not Expected To Attend Voluntary Offseason Training
NFL6 hours ago

NFL Ownership Votes To Move Kickoff Touchbacks To 35-Yard Line
Olli Määttä7 hours ago

Olli Maatta A Game-Time Call On Tuesday
Jordan Greenway7 hours ago

Remains Sidelined On Tuesday
Dallas Cowboys7 hours ago

Cowboys Willing To Make Micah Parsons The Highest-Paid Non-QB
Jordan Staal7 hours ago

Doubtful For Wednesday
Matt Roy7 hours ago

Not Traveling With Team
Geno Smith7 hours ago

Raiders Working On Extension With Geno Smith
Chris Godwin7 hours ago

Buccaneers Optimistic Chris Godwin Will Be Ready For Week 1
Josh Norris7 hours ago

Not Traveling With The Team On Tuesday
Los Angeles Rams7 hours ago

Coleman Shelton Expected To Start Again In 2025
Brady Tkachuk7 hours ago

Not Playing On Tuesday
Los Angeles Rams7 hours ago

Rams Open To Drafting A Quarterback
Kyren Williams7 hours ago

Rams To Discuss Long-Term Deal With Kyren Williams
Aaron Rodgers7 hours ago

Signs "Pointing" Toward Aaron Rodgers Signing With Steelers
Brock Purdy8 hours ago

49ers Optimistic On Getting Extension Done With Brock Purdy
Jordan Spieth9 hours ago

Needs To Find Consistency At TPC San Antonio
Jake Knapp9 hours ago

Making First Appearance At Valero Texas Open
Michael Kim9 hours ago

Looking To Find The Magic Again In San Antonio
Tommy Fleetwood10 hours ago

Is Nearly A Must-Play At Valero Texas Open
Tony Finau10 hours ago

Hoping For Better Approach Play In San Antonio
Eric Cole10 hours ago

Trending In Right Direction Ahead Of Valero
Casey DeSmith13 hours ago

Sharp In Monday's Victory
Mason Marchment14 hours ago

Tallies Two Helpers On Monday
Adam Klapka14 hours ago

Tallies Two Points In Shootout Victory
Ivan Fedotov14 hours ago

Sharp Against Nashville
Matvei Michkov14 hours ago

Continues Hot Stretch On Monday
Luke Hughes14 hours ago

Scores Goal, Adds Assist In Victory
Sam Stevens23 hours ago

Enjoys Nice Result In Houston
PGA23 hours ago

J.T. Poston Seeks To Contend At Valero Texas Open
Denny McCarthy1 day ago

Keeps Making Cuts But Needs To Make More Putts
Brian Harman1 day ago

Off To A Subpar 2025 So Far
Ilya Samsonov1 day ago

Nursing An Upper-Body Injury
Tomas Hertl1 day ago

To Sit Out At Least One More Week
Ryan Preece1 day ago

Has Three Straight Top-10 Finishes For First Time In His Career
NASCAR1 day ago

Bubba Wallace After Third-Place Finish At Martinsville: "What a Great Day"
Todd Gilliland1 day ago

Has Mistake-Free Day At Martinsville, Grabs Another Top-10 Finish
Brandon Moreno1 day ago

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Steve Erceg1 day ago

Losses Third Consecutive Fight
Drew Dober1 day ago

Gets Knocked Out At UFC Mexico City
Manuel Torres1 day ago

Gets Back In The Win Column
Harry Hall1 day ago

Bounces Back In Houston Last Week
Denver Broncos1 day ago

Denver To Take A Running Back In The Draft
CJ Vergara1 day ago

Gets Submitted
Ryan Fox1 day ago

Showing Improvement Heading Into The Valero Texas Open
Édgar Cháirez1 day ago

Edgar Chairez Gets Submission Win At UFC Mexico City
Courtland Sutton1 day ago

"No Timeline" On Courtland Sutton Extension
Vince Morales1 day ago

Drops Decision At UFC Mexico City
Raul Rosas Jr.1 day ago

Gets Decision Win At UFC Mexico City
Saimon Oliveira1 day ago

Still Winless In The UFC
David Martinez1 day ago

Wins His UFC Debut
Kevin Borjas1 day ago

Earns His First UFC Win
Ronaldo Rodríguez1 day ago

Ronaldo Rodriguez Suffers His First UFC Loss
Joel Dahmen1 day ago

Scores Top-20 Finish At Texas Children's Houston Open
Jacob Bridgeman1 day ago

Had Some Rest Heading Into The Valero
Sami Valimaki1 day ago

Finishes Fourth At Texas Children's Houston Open
Maverick McNealy1 day ago

Finishes Tied For 32nd At Texas Children’s Houston Open
Tom Kim1 day ago

Finishes Tied For 36th At Valspar Championship
Rickie Fowler1 day ago

Finishes Tied For 52nd At Texas Children’s Houston Open
Christopher Bell1 day ago

Powers His Way To A Second-Place Finish At Martinsville
Chase Elliott1 day ago

Strong Martinsville Performance Ends With A Top-Five Finish
Kyle Larson1 day ago

Collects A Top-Five Finish At Martinsville
William Byron1 day ago

Places 22nd After Struggles At Martinsville
Joey Logano1 day ago

Claims His First 2025 Top-10 Finish After Up-And-Down Performance
Tyler Reddick1 day ago

Fails To Place In The Top 10 At Martinsville
Denny Hamlin2 days ago

Silences Doubters After Crew-Chief Change
Ty Gibbs2 days ago

Earns Best 2025 Finish At Martinsville Despite Failing Cool Suit
Ross Chastain2 days ago

Has A Great Day At Martinsville
Chase Briscoe2 days ago

Has Solid Run At Martinsville
Erik Jones2 days ago

Disqualified At Martinsville For Weight Violation
Josh Berry2 days ago

Has Top-10 Upside At Martinsville
Joey Logano2 days ago

Don't Overlook Joey Logano This Weekend
Ryan Preece2 days ago

Could Get First Three-Race Top-10 Streak Of His Career
Chase Elliott3 days ago

Looking To Continue Great Runs At Martinsville
Christopher Bell3 days ago

Wins Pole At Martinsville, But Can He Stay Up There?
Ryan Blaney3 days ago

Fast In Practice But Skeptical About Car
Denny Hamlin3 days ago

New Crew Chief Has Terrible Martinsville Record
Steve Erceg4 days ago

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Brandon Moreno4 days ago

A Favorite At UFC Mexico City
Manuel Torres4 days ago

Set For Co-Main Event
Drew Dober4 days ago

An Underdog At UFC Mexico City
Joe Pyfer4 days ago

Looks To Win Back-To-Back Fights
Kelvin Gastelum4 days ago

Set For Middleweight Matchup
Vince Morales4 days ago

In Dire Need Of Victory
Raul Rosas Jr.4 days ago

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Saimon Oliveira4 days ago

Looks For His First UFC Win
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF