RADIO
Thanks for dropping by RotoBallers! If this is your first time reading Power Pivots I hope you enjoy it! I have to warn you that this isn't a typical "picks" column. I firmly believe that hard work is the key to success in every pursuit, including DFS. My goal here every week is to find some alternative players that will give us leverage in DraftKings GPP's, but more importantly, I want to help you improve as a DFS player by expanding your thought process. We aren't going out of our way to "fade the chalk", because sometimes the chalk is the best play, but we do like to dig under the surface of a slate.
The first thing that jumps out at me in Week 8 is that the Kansas City Chiefs are finally back on the DraftKings main slate! A couple of other matchups that immediately catch my eye are Tampa Bay vs. Cincy and LA vs. Green Bay. These games will be popular targets for DFS players this week. Let's dig in and see where our research takes us!
All ownership projections in this article are courtesy of the awesome folks at UFCollective. They provide the most accurate ownership projections that I have found in the DFS industry and now offer their content directly to the public. It is a premium product that is worth every penny and available here. They offer NFL, NBA, and MLB content for both DraftKings and FanDuel. You can follow them on Twitter @UFCollective.
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Week 8 NFL DFS Power Pivots for DraftKings GPPs
As I mention every week, ownership considerations should come at the end of your weekly research process. Ownership projections change throughout the week and I highly recommend that you refer back to this column before finalizing your lineups. I will update ownership projections and add injury notes with additional strategy thoughts on Saturdays.
QB CHALK: Patrick Mahomes ($7,000)
Projected DraftKings Ownership: 18% *UPDATED: 16%
POWER PIVOT: Jameis Winston ($6,000)
Projected DraftKings Ownership: 7% *UPDATED: 13%
DFS players are happy that Patrick Mahomes has returned to the main slate! The KC gunslinger is projected to be the highest-owned QB in Week 8. Mahomes is putting up monster numbers in the Chiefs' high-octane offense, but we must be willing to pay to get him in lineups this week. He has a position-high $7,000 price tag and is priced a whopping $600 above the closest-priced QB.
Jameis Winston has been a popular DFS option since his return to the starting lineup in Week 6, but somewhat surprisingly, isn't garnering much buzz so far this week. Dropping from Mahomes to Winston saves us $1k in salary, not an insignificant amount, at about half the ownership. Winston arguably has a better matchup this week against Cincinnati than he did against Cleveland in Week 7 when he was one of the most popular options on the board.
The Bengals aren't a horrible pass defense, but they certainly aren't one to fear. Cincy sits 24th in Pass Defense DVOA and have allowed the sixth most receptions and yards to opposing wide receivers. This game has a juicy 54.5 Over/Under and Tampa's horrible defense should once again force Winston and the Bucs offense to push for points.
Winston hasn't missed a beat since returning from a four-game suspension. He has averaged 380 yards passing per game in his two starts with four passing TDs and one on the ground. Winston has a solid receiving corps and hasn't been afraid to give them opportunities to make plays, he is first in the NFL in average intended air yards. We should see more of the same this week from Jameis and a Bucs offense whose (already non-existent) run game has some banged up players and only one rushing TD this season. Tampa Bay has a Vegas-projected point total of a little over 25 points, I expect Winston to be involved in all of their offensive TD's.
SATURDAY UPDATE: In a continuing trend here at Power Pivots, our highlighted pivot play Jameis Winston has shot up the ownership projection board. Winston's expected ownership has nearly doubled and he now sits at 13%. I'm still all aboard the Winston train and don't see much reason to go cheaper than Jameis this week. An argument can be made for the other QB in this matchup, Andy Dalton, at $6,200. As he always is, Aaron Rodgers is in the QB conversation at $6,400. In this new age of compressed DraftKings pricing at the QB position, it seems to come down to preference most weeks and I'm personally pretty set on Winston in Week 8.
RB CHALK: Todd Gurley II ($9,800)
Projected DraftKings Ownership: 42% *UPDATED: 30%
POWER PIVOT: Phillip Lindsay ($5,200)
Projected DraftKings Ownership: 3% *UPDATED: 12%
Todd Gurley continues to roll. He posted another 30 point game last week and in response, DraftKings has raised his price by ZERO dollars. Obviously, Gurley will be chalky again this week and is projected to garner a massive 40-plus% ownership share.
Similar to last week's discussion at RB, I can't offer a true pivot for Gurley, as he's pretty much a one-of-a-kind player this season. What I'm searching for again this week is a player to pair with Gurley.
This week's selection is one that we will have to monitor throughout the week (Check back in for the Saturday Update!), because Phillip Lindsay is an injury-dependent play. As of this writing, Broncos' RB Royce Freeman has been forced to miss practice with a high-ankle sprain and is listed as day-to-day. If Freeman can't go, Lindsay steps into a dream matchup against Kansas City.
The Chiefs have been horrible on defense this season, but they have been especially bad against the rush. The KC Run D DVOA is dead last in the league and they rank 30th in yards allowed per carry. The Chiefs have also allowed the third most rushing touchdowns in the NFL this season. This sets up as a great spot for Phillip Lindsay.
Lindsay has proven himself to be an explosive young player when given the opportunity and I think the undrafted rookie has even surprised a Broncos organization that was banking on Freeman being their back of the future. Lindsay has averaged a gaudy 5.8 yards per carry and is a very capable receiver out of the backfield that's averaging 7.9 yards per reception. He is averaging 13.1 DraftKings points per game, this despite having two games with less than five carries. He has huge Week 8 upside with his expected usage increase against this struggling KC unit.
SATURDAY UPDATE: Gurley's ownership projection has actually dropped, as there are lots of solid options at the RB position. As expected, Denver RB Royce Freeman was ruled out Friday, so we've got the greenlight to fire up our highlighted pivot Phillip Lindsay. Several options at RB this week...KC's Kareem Hunt ($7,100) as been on fire and draws a Broncos defense that is beatable on the ground. Steelers RB John Conner ($7,500) should see tons of work in a what projects to be a matchup with a positive game script for him against Cleveland. Detroit RB Theo Riddick has been ruled out again this week, which opens the door for the ultra-talented Kerryon Johnson ($5,300) to once again see more work. Colts RB Marlon Mack ($5,400) has carried a Questionable tag all week, but practiced in full Friday and should be good to go. Those of you that need a DEEP play can check out Jets RB Isaiah Crowell at just $3,700. He should see an uptick in usage with Bilal Powell now on IR. It's not a great matchup for Crowell against the Bears, but he's a salary saver option.
WR CHALK: Robert Woods ($6,800)
Projected DraftKings Ownership: 21% *UPDATED: 23%
POWER PIVOT: T.Y. Hilton ($6,300)
Projected DraftKings Ownership: 10% *UPDATED: 13%
One of Week 7's most popular pass-catchers, Robert Woods, once again sits atop WR ownership projections. With Cooper Kupp expected to be out of the Rams lineup, Woods should get plenty of looks against a second-rate Green Bay secondary.
I'm interested in another player in the $6k range this week. T.Y. Hilton returned to the Colts lineup in Week 7 after missing two weeks with a hamstring injury. Hilton picked up right where he left off, catching two touchdowns in limited action against the Buffalo Bills. He saw only four targets due to the game being a massive blowout, but averaged 9.5 targets in his four previous starts of the season. I expect him to receive around that amount this week in his matchup with the Oakland Raiders.
We all know that Oakland is a mess right now. Most of the criticism has been directed toward the Raiders stagnant offense, but things have also been really ugly on the defensive side of the ball. Oakland's pass defense is 31st in DVOA and is dead last in the league in yards allowed per pass. This is a recipe for disaster this week against a surprisingly spicy Colts offense that has been implemented by first-year head coach Frank Reich and led by an improving Andrew Luck.
The average age of the Raiders defense is "Old As F**k", so this "veteran" Oakland secondary should be no match for Hilton's speed. Hilton has always possessed GPP-winning upside and he has shown that is still the case this season. Along with the upside, we also get a very nice floor with his expected usage. My only concern with Hilton is the blowout factor, but Vegas has this one pegged as a three-point game, so that alleviates a bit of my worry. Look for the Colts receiver to throw up the T and the Y in the endzone this week.
SATURDAY UPDATE: Not much movement here. Woods' ownership projection has increased, but A.J. Green ($8,000) has passed him up and is expected to be the highest owned WR in Week 8. Our man T.Y. Hilton is holding fairly steady. A couple of notes about the pass-catchers around T.Y., Indy WR Ryan Grant has been ruled out and TE Jack Doyle is expected to return from injury. This shouldn't have a huge impact on Hilton, but he might soak up a couple of extra targets due to Grant's absence. Not much injury news at WR...Rams WR Cooper Kupp hasn't officially been ruled out, but is extremely doubtful to play. On the other side of that matchup, Geronimo Allison is set to return for Green Bay, while Randall Cobb is still listed as questionable. The Raiders trade of Amari Cooper opens up some targets for both Jordy Nelson ($4,700) and Martavis Bryant ($3,700), but this Oakland offense is extremely difficult to trust at this point.
TE CHALK: Eric Ebron ($4,900)
Projected DraftKings Ownership: 16% *UPDATED: 15%
POWER PIVOT: David Njoku ($4,600)
Projected DraftKings Ownership: 9% *UPDATED: 8%
I wonder if RotoBaller can fire me for talking about David Njoku for three weeks in a row? I sure hope not because I love this job! I also love me some Njoku and at the risk of boring my readers, I have to point you in the Cleveland TE's direction again this week.
DraftKings has bumped Njoku's price again, but he still sits at just $4,600...which makes him the seventh-highest priced TE in Week 8. At this price point, Njoku is still underpriced for the type of role he plays in this Cleveland offense. In Baker Mayfield's four starts, Njoku has been a usage monster and is averaging 8.75 targets and 14.2 DraftKings points per game. This production has happened in a somewhat quiet fashion, as I still don't think Njoku has scratched the surface of what he's truly capable of.
A monster outing is coming for Njoku and this week's matchup with the Steelers is a sneaky-good spot. Pittsburgh's defense has been fantasy gold for opposing TE's. The Steelers are allowing the most receptions per game to the TE position in the NFL this season.
This should shape up to be a very positive game script for the Browns' passing attack. The Steelers have stuffed the run this year, which makes them a pass-friendly funnel defense. Vegas has installed Pittsburgh as eight-point favorites with an Over/Under of 49, so we should see Cleveland playing catch-up most of the day. I predicted that Njoku would "HULK SMASH" against Tampa Bay last week, it was more like a "Hulk smash", as he logged 15.2 fantasy points, but failed to break the slate. I'm not going to throw any Avengers references out this week, but I love Njoku's matchup, his floor, and still feel that he has a breakout performance coming soon.
SATURDAY UPDATE: I'm still all-in on my main man David Njoku with his combination of expected usage and matchup at $4,600. Ebron is neck and neck with Travis Kelce atop ownership projections at 15%. Jack Doyle's return to action is slightly concerning for Ebron backers. Kelce is always a great play if you can squeeze him in lineups, I personally don't think I'll have the salary to get to him this week. Jared Cook ($5,000) is worth a look as a TE that is boom-or-bust. Jimmy Graham ($4,700) is definitely viable, but I worry that the return of Green Bay's receiving corps from injury will put a damper on his usage. If I do move off of Njoku in some lineups, it will be to pair Bucs TE O.J. Howard with Jameis Winston. At just $3,900 Howard offers a respectable floor with a decent amount of upside.
D/ST CHALK: Baltimore Ravens ($2,800)
Projected DraftKings Ownership: 12% *UPDATED: 12%
POWER PIVOT: Washington Redskins ($2,700)
Projected DraftKings Ownership: 6% *UPDATED: 5%
It can sometimes be easy to overthink the DEF/ST position in DFS. I'm taking a common sense approach this week and targeting the Washington Redskins.
If you've seen Eli Manning play this year then you are aware that...he's not the player he once was. In fairness to Manning, his offensive line has been absolutely horrible and has forced the statuesque veteran to run for his life this season.
I'm very comfortable attacking Manning and this Giants O-Line with a solid Redskins defensive unit. Washington ranks inside the top-10 in the league in yards allowed per pass, yards allowed per rush, and points allowed per game.
Our main concern here is New York's Saquon Barkley. While he has the talent to succeed against Washington, the Redskins have managed to shut down both Christian McCaffery and Ezekiel Elliott over the last two weeks. I expect the Redskins to harass Manning throughout the game, which should lead to sacks and possibly a turnover. Washington also has the scheme to limit the damage that Barkley does this week. At half the expected ownership of the Ravens, Washington is a great leverage play in tourneys.
SATURDAY UPDATE: The Pittsburgh Steelers have skyrocketed to the top of ownership projections with their ridiculous $2,300 price tag. You really can't beat the value that they bring to the table against a Browns team that's near the top of the NFL in sacks allowed. Washington is still a nice GPP pivot at just 5% expected ownership.
