Week 6 Outliers Analysis - We Must Overreact!

October 20, 2020

Week 6 of the 2020 NFL season brought unexpected fantasy football surprises and busts. Mike Riggall analyzes overreactions to A.J. Green, Anthony Firkser, D'Andre Swift and more.

Deshaun Watson led the way at the quarterback position in Week 6, finishing with 32 points. Six of the top-seven quarterbacks on the week, Watson, Ryan Tannehill, Matt Ryan, Kirk Cousins, Carson Wentz and Lamar Jackson were all involved in the same three games which were shootouts with at least 58 points scored. George Kittle had another huge game finishing as the No. 2 tight end on the week and other than that, the position was a disaster with Anthony Firkser, Trey Burton, Darren Fells, Adam Shaheen and Nick Boyle making appearances in the top-10.

The Vikings and Falcons Defenses are terrible on the back-end and as a result, Justin Jefferson and Julio Jones finished as the top-two wide receivers on the week. Keelan Cole was a bit of a surprise finishing as WR-8 on the week against the Lions, even though D.J. Chark led the Jaguars in targets. On the low-end, Odell Beckham Jr., Julian Edelman and Cooper Kupp had terrible weeks, all finishing outside the top-50.

Derrick Henry ripped off a 94-yard touchdown run which made him RB-1 on the week. Ronald Jones, James Conner and Myles Gaskin all finished inside the top-six at running back as the beneficiaries of positive game scripts. Generally, running back was a tough position in Week 6 as only 10 players exceeded 15 points. Now that Week 6 is behind us, let's take a look at some of these unexpected performances and evaluate whether these guys will continue to produce moving forward.

Philip Rivers, Indianapolis Colts

Week 6 Stats: 29-of-44 passing, 371 yards, 3 TD, 1 INT

The Colts went down 21-0 to the Bengals very early in Week 6 and as a result, Rivers needed to put the ball in the air a season-high 44 times. Rivers has now exceeded 30 pass attempts in just two games this season. The Bengals defensive line also lacked any consistent pass rush, which afforded Rivers adequate time to throw without forcing him to move around much.

Bottom Line: The Colts were basically forced to abandon the running game early in this contest, rushing the ball just 15 times in the entire game. Philip Rivers will not throw the ball enough to be fantasy relevant unless the Colts are big underdogs or find themselves behind like they did against the Bengals. Don't rush out to your waiver wire and pick up Rivers unless you're in a two-QB league.

Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Week 6 Stats: 2 targets, 1 catch, 10 yards

The Buccaneers Defense had Aaron Rodgers under siege for the entire game and he was never able to get settled. Rodgers threw his first two interceptions of the season on back-to-back drives in the first half, one of which went for a pick-six. Tom Brady only needed to throw the ball 27 times for 166 yards in a game that the Buccaneers controlled from the start, and they didn't need to push the ball down the field much through the air. Regardless of the game-flow, Chris Godwin received seven targets compared to just two for Evans.

Bottom Line: In the games where Chris Godwin starts, Godwin has 20 targets compared to just 10 for Mike Evans. You may want to consider shopping Evans in trade deals because if Godwin remains healthy, Evans will be the clear No. 2 receiver in the Buccaneers passing game.

Marcus Johnson, Indianapolis Colts

Week 6 Stats: 8 targets, 5 catches, 108 yards

In Week 6 Marcus Johnson played 63.5% of the Colts offensive snaps due to injury and since Week 4, Johnson has played at least 47.2% of the snaps. In Week 5, a game that the Colts lost to the Browns, Johnson was only targeted three times, hauling in all of them for 53 yards. The Bengals used their best defensive backs to cover T.Y. Hilton and Marcus Johnson was the beneficiary of decent matchups in the secondary. The Colts went down big early and Johnson racked up big yardage as the Colts needed to abandon the running game.

Bottom Line: Marcus Johnson will be extremely boom-or-bust until Michael Pittman returns from injury. Once Pittman does return to the lineup, Johnson will return to the bench. This game will likely be Johnson's best of 2020.

A.J. Green, Cincinnati Bengals

Week 6 Stats: 11 targets, 8 catches, 96 yards

I have personally watched every single snap of the Bengals 2020 season, and heading into Week 6, it appeared that A.J. Green had fallen off. In Week 6, Green looked like the player we remembered from 2017 and 2018. Green was running great routes, routinely beating the Colts defensive backs and he was able to get open with ease. Green simply looked different in Week 6 and played a season-high 79.5% of the Bengals offensive snaps.

Bottom Line: A.J. Green showed us that he's back in Week 6. If somebody grew impatient and dropped him in your league, he's definitely worth a waiver claim. If Green is on your roster, you may want to consider selling-high because although he looked good, he's on a team that's loaded with play makers and he may not see consistent volume.

D'Andre Swift, Detroit Lions

Week 6 Stats: 14 carries, 116 yards, 2 TD, 4 targets, 3 catches, 7 yards

D'Andre Swift played just 37.7% of the Lions offensive snaps in Week 6. This means Swift touched the ball on 17 of the 29 snaps he played. Adrian Peterson played 35.1% of the Lions offensive snaps, while Kerryon Johnson played just 25.6%. The Lions are clearly looking to run more and throw less in 2020, as Matthew Stafford has only exceeded 31-pass attempts twice this season

Bottom Line: D'Andre Swift is clearly the best running back on the Lions roster, but the Lions appear to be using a full blown three-man committee at the position. If you have Swift on your roster, he's worth starting consideration, but don't overblow this game because he may be boom-or-bust until he starts playing more.

Kareem Hunt, Cleveland Browns

Week 6 Stats: 13 carries, 40 yards, 3 targets, 2 catches, 17 yards

The Browns were dismantled by the Steelers in Week 6 and had to abandon the running game fairly early in the contest. Hunt played 52.6% of the snaps compared to 29.8% for D'Ernest Johnson and 12.3% for Dontrell Hilliard. The Browns offensive line wasn't able to get much movement up front and they didn't have much success throwing either, with Baker Mayfield throwing for just 119 yards.

Bottom Line: The Browns offense didn't generate much of anything in Week 6 and ended up benching many of their players late with the game out of reach. Buy-low on Hunt, because complete implosions like this won't happen often.

Mike Gesicki, Miami Dolphins

Week 6 Stats: 2 targets, 0 catches

The Dolphins dominated the Jets and simply didn't need to throw much. Complicating matters for Mike Gesicki, Adam Shaheen and Durham Smythe, both of which are tight ends, each scored.

Bottom Line: If you have Mike Gesicki on your roster, he may frustrate you at times, but he's a big-play threat and a top-10 option at the position, so you just need to roll him out there.

Anthony Firkser, Tennessee Titans

Week 6 Stats: 9 targets, 8 catches, 113 yards, 1 TD

Jonnu Smith went down with an injured ankle and as a result, Anthony Firkser played a season-high 54.7% of the snaps. The Titans trailed for much of the day against the Texans, and as a result Ryan Tannehill threw the ball 41 times.

Bottom Line: Jonnu Smith's ankle sprain is considered to be minor, and if he plays in Week 7, Firsker will see his snaps fall back into the 30%-range. If you are counting on Jonnu Smith, you may want to add Firkser as insurance in the event Smith misses Week 7.

Trey Burton, Indianapolis, Colts

Week 6 Stats: 1 carry, 1 yard, 1 TD, 5 targets, 4 catches, 58 yards, 1 TD

Every time Trey Burton was tackled in Week 6 he looked like he wasn't going to get back up. Logan Wilson matched up well on Burton for much of the game, and Burton's touchdown reception was a spectacular catch with Wilson all over him.

Bottom Line: Burton's performance was rather fluky, especially because of the rushing touchdown. If not for the scores, Burton would have had a very underwhelming stat-line, and he should only be rostered and started if you're desperate.

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