Week 5 Outliers Analysis - We Must Overreact!

October 13, 2020

Week 5 of the 2020 NFL season brought unexpected fantasy football surprises and busts. Mike Riggall analyzes overreactions to Travis Fulgham, Todd Gurley, Zach Ertz, and more.

Unlike Week 4 where 17 quarterbacks scored at least 20-fantasy points, only 11 quarterbacks reached that same mark in Week 5. Patrick Mahomes finished the week as the No. 1 quarterback on the week, while Ryan Fitzpatrick finished No. 2 in surprising fashion against a tough 49ers Defense. Travis Kelce finished Week 5 as the top tight end and Darren Fellas scored, giving him his annual appearance in the top-five. For the first time in 2020, Irv Smith Jr. finished as a TE1, playing a season-high 68% of the Vikings snaps, so things are looking up for him.

Chase Claypool, Travis Fulgham and Brandin Cooks finished as the top-three wide receivers in fantasy scoring in Week 5, let that sink in for a minute. Outside of those three guys, the wide receiver position was fairly predictable, but some duds were put up by Diontae Johnson and D.J. Chark due to injury. Marquise Brown finally had a big week with 19.8-points, and his day could have been even bigger as he narrowly missed hauling in a second touchdown pass from Lamar Jackson.

Mike Davis finished Week 5 as the No. 1 running back which was a little bit of a surprise and Todd Gurley took advantage of a great matchup, finishing right behind Davis at No. 2.  Chase Edmonds was a bit of a surprise finishing as the RB-7 on the week, but he did so off of just eight touches, relying on catches and a touchdown to come through. Now that Week 5 is behind us, let's take a look at some of these unexpected performances and evaluate whether these guys will continue to produce moving forward.

Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals

Week 5 Stats: 19-of-30 passing, 183 yards, 3 carries, 10 yards

Joe Burrow was seemingly running for his life through the first three weeks of the regular season because the Bengals offensive line had a glaring deficiency at right guard and right tackle. In Week 4, the Bengals started Alex Redmond at right guard, and while he isn't a world-beater by any means, he's better than Fred Johnson. In Week 5, the Ravens Defense blitzed a lot, creating mismatches in the blocking scheme, and as a result Burrow was under siege for much of the day.

Bottom Line: With the game already well out of reach, the Bengals ran the ball with Joe Mixon on their final drive of the game instead of having Burrow drop back and throw in garbage time. Maybe the takeaway from Week 5 is that we cannot count on Burrow in weeks where the Bengals play a top-tier defense. In Week 6 the Bengals will face a stingy Colts Defense which will be problematic for both Burrow and Mixon, but things will get a little easier starting in Week 7. Even after this terrible performance, Burrow remains the QB-11 on the season, so don't panic if he's on your roster and hold steady.

Chase Claypool, Pittsburgh Steelers

Week 5 Stats: 11 targets, 7 catches, 3 TD, 3 carries, 6 yards, 1 TD

Diontae Johnson was injured early in Week 5 while returning a punt and as a result, Chase Claypool was the No. 1 target in Pittsburgh's passing game. In Week 3 when Diontae Johnson was similarly knocked out of the game against the Texans with a concussion, Claypool was targeted just four times and only hauled in one pass for 24 yards. Claypool played 76% of the Steelers offensive snaps in Week 3 and 69% in Week 5. Prior to Diontae Johnson getting hurt, Claypool's season-high snap count was 37%. James Washington has played at least 48% of the Steelers offensive snaps in each game this season, including 71% in Week 5 which was more than Claypool.

Bottom Line: Chase Claypool is definitely worth an add on waiver wires and should be considered even in shallower leagues. However, unless Diontae Johnson misses significant time, we need to wait and see whether Claypool has actually carved out a definitive role in this offense before he's trusted on a weekly basis.

Travis Fulgham, Philadelphia Eagles

Week 5 Stats: 13 targets, 10 catches, 152 yards, 1 TD

Carson Wentz has struggled so far in 2020 with many of his wide receivers out of the lineup due to injury. Travis Fulgham has been lining up at X for the Eagles over the last two weeks, and it appears Wentz is really starting to trust him. Fulgham played 60% of the snaps in Week 4 and 78% in Week 5. Fulgham is a 25-year old second-year pro out of Old Dominion which isn't exactly a football powerhouse, but he's very athletic and Wentz is starting to trust him.

Bottom Line: As long as Jalen Reagor and Alshon Jeffery continue to miss time, Fulgham is a viable option in all formats if you need help at wide receiver.

Brandin Cooks, Houston Texans

Week 5 Stats: 12 targets, 8 catches, 161 yards, 1 TD

In Deshaun Watson's first week playing outside of Bill O'Brien's leadership, the Texans wide receivers had the following pecking order for targets: Brandin Cooks (12), Will Fuller (8), Randall Cobb (6) and Kenny Still (1). Tim Kelly had more control over the offense and play-calling duties which may benefit Cooks moving forward. Cooks did run by Jaguars cornerback Chris Claybrooks with ease on a deep-ball and his touchdown came on a long run after the catch.

Bottom Line: Prior to Week 5, Brandin Cooks was only targeted 21 times in the passing game and failed to score. This may be the start of something good for Cooks, but don't get too crazy, because the matchup against the Jaguars Defense was very good, and Cooks routinely ran by Jaguars defensive backs with ease.

Todd Gurley, Atlanta Falcons

Week 5 Stats: 14 carries, 121 yards, 1 TD, 5 targets, 4 catches, 29 yards

The Panthers Defense gives up the second-most fantasy points to opposing running backs on the season. Todd Gurley broke off a 35-yard touchdown run in this game which accounted for most of his fantasy points.

Bottom Line: Trade Gurley now. Gurley is not the same player he once was, the Falcons are bad and will be playing from behind for most of the year, and Gurley's trade value will never be higher coming off this soft matchup.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Kansas City Chiefs

Week 5 Stats: 10 carries, 40 yards, 8 targets, 3 catches, 40 yards

The Chiefs suffered an injury on the offensive line early in Week 5 which hurt their ability to run the ball. The Chiefs also fell behind a little bit in this one which forced them to throw the ball a lot. Even though the Chiefs had to abort the passing game earlier than they would have liked, Edwards-Helaire was on the field for 58% of the total offensive plays, including 49% of the pass plays.

Bottom Line: Trade for Clyde Edwards-Helaire. He currently sits as RB-14 on the season and while he's coming off of an underwhelming performance, he has the sixth-most carries in the NFL. Things will get better.

Darrell Henderson, L.A. Rams

Week 5 Stats: 15 carries, 38 yards, 1 TD, 4 targets, 3 catches, 30 yards, 1 TD

Darrell Henderson has never played more than 49% of the Rams offensive snaps so far in 2020. In Week 5, Cam Akers returned to the lineup and played  19% of the snaps compared to 43% for Henderson. Henderson did lead the team in carries, but Akers was able to turn his 9 carries into 61 yards which was very efficient.

Bottom Line: Henderson didn't rack up a ton of yardage in Week 5 but he did score twice which salvaged his day. Beware of this Rams backfield, because nobody is playing a majority of the snaps which makes Akers and Henderson touchdown-dependent. You may want to consider trading Henderson if you can acquire a running back with a more solidified role or if you need help at another position.

Mike Gesicki, Miami Dolphins

Week 5 Stats: 6 targets, 5 catches, 91 yards

It's been difficult to predict when Mike Gesicki will come through for fantasy purposes. Through five weeks of play, Gesicki has only played at least 60% of the snaps twice. In Week 5, Gesicki played just 45% of the Dolphins offensive snaps, just 30 plays, but he was targeted on six of those plays. The Dolphins clearly view Gesicki as a pass catcher, but it's also clear that they view Durham Smythe and Adam Shaheen as superior run blockers as they each play at least 33% of the snaps. Gesicki had a 70-yard catch where he got behind the entire 49ers Defense and while much of his fantasy production came from that one play, he remains a big-play threat at all times.

Bottom Line: If you have Mike Gesicki on your roster, he may frustrate you at times, but he's a big-play threat and a top-12 option at the position, so you need to roll him out there.

Gerald Everett, L.A. Rams

Week 5 Stats: 4 targets, 4 catches, 90 yards

Gerald Everett actually lined up on the perimeter for some of his snaps in Week 5 and the Rams designed a screen pass for him. On his longest catch of the day, the Redskins Defense seemingly lost him in coverage and he was able to make a short catch and take it for a long run. Everett was only on the field for 44% of the Rams offensive snaps compared to 82% for Tyler Higbee.

Bottom Line: Tyler Higbee is clearly out-snapping Everett, but the troubling part of Week 5 is that the Rams clearly dialed up some plays designed for Everett. Gerald Everett is not playing enough snaps to be consistently relied on, so you should only roster him if you're truly desperate at this point.

Zach Ertz, Philadelphia Eagles

Week 5 Stats: 6 targets, 1 catch, 6 yards

Things are starting to look a little concerning for Zach Ertz. In Week 4, Ertz simply couldn't beat the 49ers defenders in coverage, the same 49ers defenders that Mike Gesicki torched for 90 yards. In Week 5, Ertz had trouble once again, and at this point, you need to start evaluating whether he belongs in your starting lineup.

Bottom Line: Explore other options on your waiver wire at tight end if you can, but don't cut Ertz. We need to see more before we decide whether Ertz's play has fallen off to the point where you can't roster him for fantasy. While this two week stretch is concerning, don't hit the panic button just yet.

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