RADIO
Outside of the Jalen Hurts stacks recommendation right off the bat in last week’s column, it was not a strong week for my advice. DeVonta Smith was the tournament wide receiver you needed to ascend leaderboards in Week 3, but outside of that, my advice was, for lack of a better term, garbage.
Week 4 presents a weird 12-game slate with just two games with totals at or above 48 points (SEA-DET and BUF-BAL). Those games need to be considered very seriously, as they present much better upside than others. But there are a few sneaky spots we can get into — and I will try my best to identify them.
**Each section will feature a stack for each major site (DraftKings & FanDuel), along with a preferred bring-back and possible leverage piece to make your lineup different from the field. The labeling of each stack is based on the QB’s pricing, not necessarily the weapons they’ll be throwing to.**
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High-Priced DFS Stacks for DraftKings
Josh Allen ($8400) + Stefon Diggs ($8400) AND/OR Isaiah McKenzie ($5100), Dawson Knox ($3800)
Leading the league in passing yards through three weeks and dropping back to pass a whopping 63 times in a Week 3 loss to the Dolphins, Josh Allen and his pass catchers are the perfect targets when creating stacks on DraftKings. Only the Jets and Cardinals have attempted more passes to start the season than the Bills, and their Week 4 opponent — the Baltimore Ravens — are hemorrhaging yards through the air.
At first glance, this stack featuring Stefon Diggs is undoubtedly pricey. But when you consider the combined 80.48 DK-point performance this duo had in Week 2 against the Titans, you could argue their $8400 price tags are a bargain. The upside is higher than any duo on the slate, and ownership could be suppressed on Diggs after he was a letdown as chalk in Week 3.
Double stacking Allen with Isaiah McKenzie or Dawson Knox would be smart here, as they provide both salary relief at their price points but also added correlation. No team has allowed more passing yards than Baltimore to this point, and only the Dolphins have surrendered more DK points to QBs. Add in that Gabriel Davis has been on the injury report all week, and more looks could be added to the plates of McKenzie and Knox.
Preferred bring-back: Rashod Bateman ($5600)
Leverage piece: Devin Singletary ($5900)
John Harbaugh’s defense has allowed a league-leading 353.3 passing yards per game, almost 56 more yards through the air than the next-closest defense. But they’ve also been beatable on the ground, allowing a middle-of-the-road 104.7 rushing yards per contest. It’s a very similar spot to last week for Singletary, where he put up 24.1 DK points.
As leverage off of Diggs last week, I saw plenty of winning lineups with Singletary in them. He’s worth a sprinkle in some tourney lineups in Week 4 as well.
High-Priced DFS Stacks for FanDuel
Kyler Murray ($7800) + Marquise Brown ($7700) AND/OR Zach Ertz ($5500), Greg Dortch ($5300)
Arizona’s offense has been sporadic through three weeks, but the Kyler Murray-Marquise Brown connection was alive and well in Week 3; the duo connected 14 times for 140 yards, showing what all the hype was about coming into the season regarding their college days at Oklahoma leading to extra chemistry.
Carolina has served up the eighth-most receiving yards to the WR position this year. However, they’ve only allowed one receiving touchdown to wideouts. With that being said, they’ve faced the Browns, Giants, and Saints — which are not exactly the league’s cream of the crop at the position.
This game has a middling 43.5 Vegas total, but both offenses feature explosive playmakers. Carolina is slightly favored in this game, so if the Vegas prediction comes to fruition, this should be a back-and-forth affair. Both defenses are bottom-half units in total yards allowed, so fantasy points could be ubiquitous here.
Neither option is sexy, but both Zach Ertz and Greg Dortch have been consistent producers within Arizona’s offense. Both guys have topped double-digit fantasy points in all three games thus far. An important stat to note: Ertz ranks tied for third in the NFL in red-zone targets this season with eight, four more than his next-closest teammate (Brown).
Preferred bring-back: D.J. Moore ($6100, CMC is on the injury report with a thigh injury)
Leverage piece: James Conner ($6800)
Seemingly everyone on this slate has a Q tag currently, but James Conner is set up for success at Carolina (barring health). The Panthers have been trampled for 134.7 rushing yards per game, ranking 11th worst in that category. Kyler Murray was also quoted this week saying that Conner should be more involved in this offense:
“He's one of your best players, got to give your best players the ball," Murray said, adding, "I think we'll do that.”
All Conner did last year was score touchdowns. He has just one in 2022 so far. Maybe he’ll find paydirt multiple times in Week 4.
Mid-Priced DFS Stacks for DraftKings
Trevor Lawrence ($5700) + Christian Kirk ($6600) AND/OR Evan Engram ($3400)
Jaguars passing-game stacks will certainly be contrarian in Week 4 against a stingy Philadelphia defense. As a slight underdog (6.5-point spread), Doug Pederson’s team should be airing the ball out plenty in this spot. Christian Kirk has started the season red hot, ranking eighth in receiving yards and seventh in fantasy points per game. Can the Trevor Lawrence-Christian Kirk connection stay strong in this spot?
Kirk has run 51.4% of his routes from the slot this season, which ranks sixth in the NFL. Will this keep him out of the grasp of Philly’s shutdown cornerback Darius Slay? Slay has a shadow rate of 53.2% on the season, meaning he’s followed a specific receiver around the field that percentage of the time. They likely won’t lock horns every play, but they will certainly get acquainted.
The second part of this stack, Evan Engram, has greatly underwhelmed throughout his career. But the former Giant could have increased involvement if Zay Jones is unable to suit up this week (ankle injury). Jones’ 22.6% target share and six end-zone targets could be spread out elsewhere, and my money would be on Engram being the beneficiary. He’s cheap, was heavily involved last week, and has a ceiling. You could do worse at the tight end position.
Preferred bring-back: A.J. Brown ($7400)
Leverage piece: Travis Etienne ($5400)
If this game script goes like Vegas projects, Jacksonville should be chasing. Much of the fantasy community has likely soured on Travis Etienne — a popular early-round pick in season-long. There are scenarios where the Eagles jump ahead by multiple touchdowns here, forcing the rookie onto the field as the primary passing-down back for Jacksonville.
Though James Robinson has seized the Jaguars’ lead-back duties in the early going, Etienne has the slight lead in targets and receptions over J-Rob. Ranking third and ninth respectively in yards per reception (10.1) and yards per route run (1.84) at the running back position, Etienne is producing when given opportunities. He just might get more in this spot if things break right.
Mid-Priced DFS Stacks for FanDuel
Jacoby Brissett ($6800) + Amari Cooper ($7500) OR David Njoku ($5700), Donovan Peoples-Jones ($5400)
I’ll be the first to admit that I was wrong on Amari Cooper in 2022. I hated him for season-long leagues, as the move from pass-happy Dallas to run-heavy Cleveland didn’t sound like a fantasy-friendly transition. But the talented 28-year-old has been stellar, as he currently ranks as the WR12 in PPR.
On Sunday, his Browns get the Atlanta Falcons — a team that isn’t well-equipped to stop a powerful offense like Cleveland. Kevin Stefanski’s club ranks fifth in total yardage and sixth in points per game (28.3). Arthur Smith’s team has yielded the 11th-most total yardage and the sixth-most passing yards. Only four teams have surrendered more FanDuel points per game to WRs than the Falcons in 2022.
David Njoku is fresh off one of the best games of his career. But will his usage be consistent with his Week 3 breakout? And then there is Donovan Peoples-Jones, who is always capable of popping off for a big game. Atlanta ranks 19th in sack percentage in 2022, a year after ranking dead last in that category a season ago (teamrankings.com). DPJ could certainly get loose for a big gain or two with added time to survey the field for Brissett.
Preferred bring-back: Drake London ($6300)
Leverage piece: Kareem Hunt ($6100)
There really isn’t much rhyme or reason behind this recommendation. Kareem Hunt always seems to produce a spike game at the most random times. He’s averaged 15 touches per game to start the year, and he’s as explosive as they come at the RB position. If Nick Chubb is chalky (he very well might be), you can count on Hunt spoiling the party with some vultured TDs.
Low-Priced DFS Stacks for DraftKings
Justin Fields ($5300) + Darnell Mooney ($5000)
This is one of those takes that will either get me praised or canceled. The Bears are 2-1, and Chicago has asked Justin Fields to throw a minuscule 45 times across three starts. The coaching staff clearly does not trust the second-year QB to distribute the ball effectively to his supporting cast, but the Bears could be forced into more dropbacks in Week 4. Not because of the opposing secondary/matchup, but because they will likely need to in order to keep up.
Only the Texans have topped the Bears in rushing yards allowed per game. Saquon Barkley should have a field day at MetLife Stadium on Sunday, and Vegas agrees, with the Giants slated as 3-point favorites. Chicago will likely need to make up ground here, which leads us to this stack.
New York ranks 30th in sacks to start the year (they have just three). If Matt Eberflus’ club was ever going to pick a time to get their talented but flawed signal-caller going, this would be it. This stack will only hit through efficiency, not volume, but it’s certainly within the realm of possibility in Week 4.
Preferred bring-back: Saquon Barkley ($8000)
Leverage piece: None (Khalil Herbert will likely be chalky, so Fields to Mooney is the leverage play here.)
Low-Priced DFS Stacks for FanDuel
Davis Mills ($6400) + Brandin Cooks ($6400)
Brandin Cooks has underwhelmed to start the 2022 campaign, but a big game is coming soon. It might even be this week against a reeling Chargers squad.
His 28.2% target share ranks 15th at the WR position. His 271 air yards rank 18th across the league. Los Angeles ranks seventh in FanDuel points allowed to WRs this season. In a game where the Texans are 5.5-point underdogs, it’s a prime opportunity for Cooks to rack up catches.
There are some question marks surrounding the Chargers side of this game, such as Justin Herbert’s injury status. But if he’s closer to 100 percent than 70 percent, this game could be more fantasy-friendly than the consensus believes.
Now, Davis Mills has stunk to start the 2022 season, but he did manage five multi-TD games and two 300-yard games during his rookie year. Cooks is the clear stacking partner here, so tee this duo up if you like living on the riskier side.
Preferred bring-back: Mike Williams ($7200)
Leverage piece: Nico Collins ($5300)
Nico Collins has 16 targets through three games, ranking second on the Texans. His 13.6 aDOT ranks 20th in the league. Additionally, his expected fantasy points per game sit at 9.2, but his actual fantasy points per game is 6.8; that’s a -2.37 differential (Player Profiler). He’s underperforming the opportunity he’s been getting. Maybe he’ll reel in a deep ball in Week 4.
Alright, folks. I’m feeling good about my picks this week. Hopefully, they help you post a nice DFS score this weekend to take down a tournament. Good luck! Feel free to reach out to me on Twitter about DFS or fantasy football in general. I can be found here — @thejacksonkane.
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