RADIO
Ben Rolfe analyzes optimal DFS cash game value plays for Week 4 of the NFL season. These players are worth considering on FanDuel and DraftKings daily fantasy sports cash games.
Week 3 was a little bit calmer than the turbulence of Week 2. However, as always at this time of the season, we are still learning about the ever-changing landscape of the NFL and which players will feature in which roles. Now that we are into the bye weeks we have a slightly reduced 12-game slate, with the New York Jets and San Francisco 49ers getting an early week off.
For the large part, this has the makings of a high scoring week. We have three games on the slate with totals set at over or around 50. We then have another six over 45, before things quieten down a little in the 4:35 pm kickoffs. Those two matches combined have an average projected total of 38 points, and are, therefore, unlikely to provide s with two many DFS options this week.
This article will take a look at some of the value plays for each week of the NFL. However, usually when you look at value plays for GPP you are swinging for the fences somewhat. Here I will be focusing on cash games and the necessity for slightly more safety as you are just looking to finish in the top half or so of the competition. Therefore, we are looking for cheaper players who should see a decent workload, be that pass attempts, targets or carries. Let's take a look at the cash value plays for Week 4 of the 2019 NFL season.
Week 4 Quarterback Cash Game Value Plays
Matthew Stafford, DET vs. KC | DK: $5,500, FD: $6,900
It has been a mixed season for Stafford so far, starting with a real high, before dropping each of the last two weeks. However, this game against the Chiefs is not going to be one that the Lions can win without a significant contribution from Stafford. The Chiefs offense should realistically hang 25-to-30 points up in this game and the Lions are going to need to go toe-to-toe with them. When Stafford has thrown this year he has been effective, ranking third in the league so far in aDOT. The Chiefs Defense has been stingier than I expected coming into the year, but Stafford has the weapons across the field to pick them apart and keep his team in this one.
Daniel Jones, NYG vs. WAS | DK: $5,300, FD: $7,300
What more can you say about Daniel Jones than what the stat line tells you; 336 yards, two passing touchdowns, and two rushing touchdowns. Now he faces a Redskins Defense allowing over 25 points per game to opposing quarterbacks and just made Mitchell Trubisky look good. The Redskins defense is nothing special, and importantly neither is the Giants Defense, which should see this game end up in a shootout much like last week. Jones will be hampered without Barkley, but he should still be able to put up points against a defense which has struggled every week so far.
Week 4 Running Back Cash Game Value Plays
Josh Jacobs, OAK @ IND | DK: $5,100, FD: $6,000
Jacobs usage has been somewhat frustrating the last two weeks, combining for just 22 carries the last two weeks after having 23 in the first week. However, he should find himself with a nice matchup against a Colts team that has been allowing an average of over 20 points to opposing number one backs. This game should not get out of hand as quickly as the Raiders game did last week, so hopefully, that means we will see more of Jacobs than 10 carries and two targets.
Wayne Gallman, NYG vs. WAS | DK: $4,600 FD: $5,800
With the departure of Barkley there are a lot of carries available in this offense this week. The Redskins have actually been pretty stingy against number one running backs, but the threat of Jones using his legs could open things up for Gallman. I am not expecting a high point per touch ratio from Gallman, but there is a very real chance he could see 15-to-20 touches and at this price that would offer a great opportunity for ROI in cash games.
Chris Thompson, WAS @ NYG | DK: $4,500, FD: $5,300
Thompson will be one of my regular options in this column, as I rarely expect his price to be inflated on either site, unless he suddenly explodes. The Giants are among the worst in the league when it comes allowing points to the number two backs. Thompson has seen an average of 10 touches per game so far this season, and those opportunities at this price are hard to find elsewhere.
Week 4 Wide Receiver Cash Game Value Plays
D.K. Metcalf, SEA @ ARI | DK: $4,800, FD: $6,100
As it turns out Metcalf can do a lot more than just run in straight lines. The rookie receiver has been an instrumental part of this Seahawks offense so far, seeing at least six touches in each of the three games so far. He has yet to see less than 60 yards receiving in any game and has made some impressive catches, which should boost Wilson's trust in him and mean he sees even more balls. The Cardinals have a woeful secondary and if the Seahawks continue to give Metcalf this many targets then look for him to have a monster day in the desert.
Terry McLaurin, WAS @ NYG | DK: $4,500, FD: $6,300
The injury news for McLaurin does put a slight spanner in the works here but with this being an early kickoff you should get time to pivot your lineup. McLaurin has been superb so far, averaging eight targets, 5.33 receptions and 85.6 yards per game. Additionally, he has found the end zone in all three games of his career so far. This week he gets an amazing matchup against a Giants secondary allowing a league-high 56.4 fantasy points to opposing wide receiver groups. If McLaurin is on the field he is the main threat in this offense and at this price you would be daft not to snap him up.
Preston Williams, MIA vs. LAC | DK: $3,900, FD: $5,200
The Williams and Josh Rosen connection has some deep roots and both will be hoping that can lead to them prospering this weekend. In his first game as the Dolphins starter, Rosen targetted Williams 12 times, giving him an impressive 31% target share. Williams still has some work to do on catching the ball, but the volume should be there and we saw in the preseason he has the talent to turn opportunity into production.
Week 4 Tight End Cash Game Value Plays
Trey Burton, CHI vs. MIN | DK: $3,800, FD: $4,900
Tight end value is pretty grim on this slate but Burton's matchup does offer potential. The Vikings have been allowing an average of 15.6 fantasy points to opposing tight ends, and the Bears passing attack may find that the best route to make inroads against a very good defense. You would like to see more than an average of 3.5 targets per game for Burton through the first two games he has played but given his injury they may just have been easing him in. This could be a big test of whether Burton can have any fantasy value this season. However, the best value on this slate on both sites may well lie with the man below, even if he is not as big of a value on FanDuel as he is on DraftKings.
Will Dissly, SEA @ ARI | DK: $3,600, FD: $5,400
It is hard to find much to be down about with Dissly this week. He comes into it off the back of 12 receptions, 112 yards and three touchdowns in the last two weeks. Now he draws a matchup with a defense which has allowed a league-high 27.3 fantasy points to opposing tight end ones. With Nick Vannett being traded, Dissly is the only show in town and should be in line for a big week.
