Week 18 IDP Start Em, Sit Em - Streamers and Fades for Fantasy Football Defensive Players

As we covered at the beginning of our rankings earlier this week, we all continue to pray and wish for Damar Hamlin's health. The lives of these men are infinitely more important than our silly game of fantasy football. That said, a couple of things must be addressed before Week 18 begins.

First, those still playing in Week 18 should look hard at our rankings and streamers. They downgrade players for the Buccaneers and Giants significantly since both teams have solidified their playoff seeding and should sit starters for at least half of their final regular season game. That isn't good for the fantasy prospects of those starters. You should expect several other teams to take this track, at least for half of their games.

The second and more pressing question we must address is what fantasy commissioners should do about the fantasy championships decided in Week 17. Namely, what happens if a contest is competitive and one of those teams lost a Bengal or Bill early? I've gotten at least four dozen inquiries about this problem this week, and it's a tough nut to crack. That is why I will address it in more detail below, where you can read through my philosophy or skip ahead to our streamers and fades.

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How to Handle Week 17 Fantasy Championships

There is no clear and easy answer when addressing fantasy championships impacted by the canceled/delayed Bills and Bengals game. While there's zero doubt that stopping the game was the right decision, and it's obvious Hamlin's health towers in priority over fantasy teams, this issue is a pressing one for many. A lot of fantasy managers care about their titles and want them to mean something. Many others have money on the line that they cannot afford to split. They all want to know how to solve this issue.

Let us start this discussion by saying there is no clear right or wrong answer to this problem. No matter what solution you choose, you will upset someone. One side will inevitably get an advantage over the other. There will undoubtedly be claims that the loser would have been the winner had a different solution been chosen. Thus, commissioners must try to choose the least bad answer… which is a familiar situation for many of us who have practiced law in our careers.

One idea that has been floated is letting any Bengal or Bills player simply get their stats in Week 18. Whatever that player scores this coming week, commissioners should substitute that fantasy total for the one put up by the Bengal or Bill in Week 17. Easy peasy, right?

There are multiple problems with this solution. One is you have no clue how long any Bill or Bengal will play in Week 18. If this past Monday’s contest isn’t re-scheduled and the Chiefs win on Saturday, the #1 seed in the AFC is (many would say unfairly) not on the table for the Bills or Bengals. That could incentivize both teams to rest players, especially a Buffalo squad still reeling from the tragedy.

The matchups are another problem with this solution. Bills vs. Bengals was a barn-burning matchup that necessitated you start everyone. It was going to be fantasy gold, as two of the NFL’s best offenses tried to keep up with each other. Conversely, the Patriots’ and Ravens’ offenses do not inspire the same hopes of a high-scoring contest. The fantasy potential drops significantly when Buffalo and Cincinnati don’t have to chase points against the middling offenses of New England and Baltimore

Another solution that has been offered has been to simply let the scores stand. If you got 0 points from Ja’Marr Chase, that’s just tough luck. This stance isn't exactly fair to those who started a Bill or Bengal in their championship, but it fits fantasy's history. We have seen games end early for weather, and the box scores stood. We’ve seen players benched, hurt, or lose key assistants (i.e., a receiver loses his QB or an RB loses his starting OTs), but their poor games stood. There's an argument this situation is similar.

Finally, some are advocating we use season averages to solve this problem of lost Bills and Bengals players. For example, if you started Joe Mixon, you could substitute his season average for this week's score. However, this solution isn't particularly fair to an opponent with no Bills or Bengals. Season averages for superstars like Chase or Mixon are typically very high, as they factor in 40 and 50-point games. So, the average they would get from this would, typically, be higher than their usual single-game output.

With each of those solutions flawed, I cannot say that my own solution is significantly better. However, if you are unwilling to let the scores stand, you have to do your best to balance the sides and ensure both teams get a chance to benefit. If you don't, the side that had to sit and watch their opponent benefit won't be happy.

So, without further ado, here is MY SOLUTION…

Step 1: You begin by offering each team the season average of any Bill or Bengal in their starting lineup for Week 17. So, let's say the two championship teams involved the following players on Monday night:

Team 1: Ja’Marr Chase, Stefon Diggs, Josh Allen

Team 2: Dawson Knox

The Score:

Team 1- 100 points

Team 2- 145 points

Letting Team 1 benefit from the season averages of Allen, Chase, and Diggs helps him feel better about things this week… but it also tips the scales in his favor significantly. This move would lead to a double-digit win by Team 1, despite Team 2 actually scoring significantly more points in Week 17. Meanwhile, Team 2 would have to sit there and take the loss, knowing only one side got the chance to correct poor outputs from his players. The outrage Team 2 would rightly feel is why we cannot stop at Step 1.

Step 2: To add balance to this solution and not put Team 2 at a distinct disadvantage, you must give Team 2 an option to supplement his roster as much as his opponent did. What does that mean? It means Team 1 got to replace the poor output of three players in his lineup, while Team 2 only got to replace one. To balance this out, it would be best if you gave Team 2 the option to supplement two additional disappointing players in his lineup, so things were fair.

Example:

Team 1 could substitute season averages for: Josh Allen, Ja’Marr Chase, and Stefon Diggs

Team 1 could substitute season averages for: Dawson Knox, Jordyn Brooks, and Justin Jefferson

Conclusion: this solution will get pushback from many who feel Team 2 is getting too much of an advantage. As I said, there won't be an easy answer to this problem. That said, we must consider the fact that solving the dilemma of a stopped game is already trending in the area of commissioners tipping a contest in one direction or another. It's a moral thing to do, considering the circumstances, but it's tricky.

For my money, people in Team 2's position have a legitimate argument that they've lost players to injury all year, and no one fixed the score for them. They've seen players exit games early or be suddenly benched, and the score stood. They can even argue that games have been canceled mid-contest in multiple sports, and people didn’t fix those scores. So, we have to work towards letting Team 1 address their hardship in a way that Team 2 isn't put at a large disadvantage.

Casual IDP Streamers and Fades for This Week

Stream: Joey Bosa, DL, Los Angeles Chargers

The Chargers still have seeding to play for. While it's a distinct possibility they rest guys mid-way through the game, Bosa could play more than most in order to knock off rust before the playoffs. Plus, if he does sit half the game, he won't be much different than many other defenders in fantasy this week.

One reason we like Bosa, even for half a game, is his matchup with Denver. The Broncos are a positive matchup for pass rushers, even ones who only play the first half. Over his past three games, Russell Wilson has been sacked 14 times. His line has also given up the most sacks in the NFL and ranks fourth worst in Adjusted Sack Rate.

Stream: Robert Spillane, LB, Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers are still in the thick of a playoff race, but they must win this week. Spillane is their starter on the inside now. He’s averaged 9.3 tackles per game his past three games, and the Browns are the NFL’s fifth most run-heavy offense since Deshaun Watson returned. Spillane is a streamer with a safe floor this week.

Boom-or-Bust Player of the Week: Rashaan Evans, LB, Atlanta Falcons

Fading Evans is a tough call to make. If the Bucs sit starters early in this contest, as we anticipate, that could lead to a much more run-heavy script than is usual for Tampa. Evans should still play a lot; he has, even with Atlanta out of contention. So, he could be in for a solid matchup against backups.

The flip side of this scenario is the Bucs could play starters like Ryan Jensen and Tom Brady a decent amount. The passing game is just now getting on track. Brady and company could push to play more this week in order to keep their hot streak going, knowing their offense has been cold most of the season. That’s doubly true if the GOAT is leaning towards retirement this offseason and wants to maximize his games played.

The other factor to consider here is Evans' production has declined significantly in the past two weeks, despite good matchups. While the Bucs could be a solid matchup if all goes right for Evans, he notched just five tackles against them in Week 5, and he's hard to trust as an LB1 in shallow leagues.

Boom-or-Bust Unit of the Week: Eagles Pass Rushers

We aren't fading the Eagles' pass rushers this week. In fact, we have four of them in our top 40 DLs. The matchup against the Giants is simply elite. On the season, the Giants' offensive line is the seventh worst in Adjusted Sack Rate, they've allowed the fifth most sacks, and they could sit all of their starters in a game that doesn't matter for them. Even better, the Eagles need to win this week, so the starters should play at least until the game is in hand.

The concern you have to have about these Eagles is what happens if Philly goes up 35-0 on New York's backups by halftime? If that happens, you may only get two-quarters of play from these pass rushers. In that situation, you'd have to get all your production from 30 or fewer plays.

Premium Scoring & Deep League Streamers and Fades for This Week

Stream: Joe Thomas, LB, Chicago Bears

In two games as a starter, Thomas is averaging double-digit tackles. He's taken over a fantasy-friendly role that made Roquan Smith fantasy's top LB and turned Jack Sanborn into an LB1 option. Thomas isn't on those players' levels, and his matchup isn't elite, but he's available in nearly every IDP league and is a viable streamer in deep leagues.

Stream: Jaylinn Hawkins, DB, Atlanta Falcons

Hawkins is used in coverage on 97.6% of the Falcon’s defensive pass plays. He could see lots of Blaine Gabbert throwing to Russell Gage and Breshad Perriman this week. The upside for a turnover feels high.

Fade: Jonathan Allen, DL, Washington Commanders

Allen is currently struggling with a knee injury that could cost him this weekend. If he plays, look for him to be limited since the Commanders are already eliminated from playoff contention. Plus, the Cowboys' offensive line has the fifth-best sack rate in the NFL and should be playing their starters with a shot at the #1 seed still on the line. If you've been relying on Allen all year, add other options now while they are still available.

Defensive Tackles to Consider for This Week

Kenny Clark, DT, Green Bay Packers

The Packers are right in the thick of playoff contention, as are the Lions. Thus, their matchup should be one of the most competitive of the weekend. That means Clark and others should see their normal reps, and the Lions can be beaten at their offensive guard positions. Clark is a flyer you know will play this week, and he's twelfth amongst interior defenders in quarterback pressures this season.

Derrick Brown, DT, Carolina Panthers

Saints starting guard Cesar Ruiz is still listed as out, as is backup guard Yasir Durant. Andrus Peat is also questionable to play for New Orleans. That could make this a solid opportunity for Derrick Brown and others on Carolina’s interior. Brown is 17^th amongst interior defenders in pressures and is PFF’s fifth-best graded interior run defender this year.

Cornerbacks to Consider for This Week

Deommodore Lenoir, CB, San Francisco 49ers

We are going with Lenoir for a second straight week because he can be beaten and opposing offenses know it. Look for San Francisco to play Lenoir a lot in this one, even if they go up big or lose the incentive to play once Philly goes up big on New York. That should amount to plenty of opportunities against a third-string Arizona quarterback.

D.J. Reed, DB, New York Jets

The Jets are generally difficult to run the ball on, which could make Miami's recent trend toward the run hard to continue. If Miami has to default to the pass, their third-string quarterback will offer plenty of turnover opportunities to Reed and Sauce.

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