Week 17 Defense (DEF) Streamers and Starts - 2020 Fantasy Tiers, Rankings

January 3, 2021

Eric Samulski breaks down all 2020 fantasy football Week 17 defenses (DEF) -- streamers, sits/starts, and D/ST waiver wire pickups to add. His Week 17 rankings and tiers for all of the NFL defenses.

Week 17 is here, so if you're reading this article, you either play in a league with a Week 17 championship (please try to change that for next season) or you're doing some research for DFS. Either way, it's important to treat these rankings as extra preliminary this early in the week.

Most weeks of this season we're dealing with potential COVID-19 cases late in the week or weather-related changes; however, this week, as with most Week 17s, we're likely going to see a lot of key fantasy players held out of games either to get rest before the playoffs or because their team simply has nothing to play for and they want to rest injured veterans and see what young players can do. All of which can drastically change the dynamics of a matchup.

With that said, below is a list of my defensive rankings for the week based on what I assume will be the lineups that teams trot out onto the field on Sunday. However, I will be updating this during the week once we know more about who will be rested or be ready to play. But I will remind everybody that I'm a firm believer in playing the good defense over the good matchup when you're deciding between two closely matched teams. It was for that reason that I cautioned people against playing Houston last week and even suggested that you temper expectations for the Bears. Houston finished ranked dead last with -4 points, and Chicago tied for 12th with six points. Don't over-value a mediocre fantasy defense because of a good matchup.

Picking The Right Defenses

When choosing a defense, you want to be looking for defenses that get consistent pressure and takeaways. Sacks and turnovers are more valuable for fantasy defense than preventing yardage and even, to a certain extent, preventing points.  If a defense allows a stingy yards per play number, that's great and I'll cite some of those numbers below - but they better also be able to get into the backfield or force turnovers, or else it won't really matter in the long run.

Essentially, we need to move away from points against as being the most important factor in choosing a fantasy defense. NFL offenses have gained 358.4 yards per game and scored 11,854 points or 24.7 points per game so far this season, which is the most of any season in the Super Bowl era.

With offenses putting up video game numbers, it means that we can't continue to judge a defense solely by the number of points they allow or the number of yards they give up. Those numbers will naturally be higher than we're used to. Instead, we need to look for which offensive lines are truly weak points and which defenses will either be blitz-heavy or get consistent pressure with their pass rush. These are all incredibly important pieces of information in determining which defenses to play in any given week.

We can also identify the offenses that we want to attack based on current performance. Injuries can always change this, but, for right now, defenses going up against the Cowboys, Jets, Broncos, Lions, Bengals, Giants, and Washington Football team have scored considerably more points on average than defenses facing other offenses. As I mentioned above, attacking these teams doesn't always work, and you don't want to elevate a bad defense too far just because they get one of those teams; however, it is a key factor to keep in mind when making your decision.

Starting the right defense every week can be a difference-maker, so remember to check back here during the week as I will make updates once we get more information on some of these injuries and also get a better sense of the weather for the game.

Week 17 Defenses To Start & Stream: Tiers & Rankings

These rankings will be adjusted throughout the week to take into account weather and injuries.

Below are my Week 17 defense tiers and rankings, or which defenses to stream, start and target off the waiver wire for Week 17 of the NFL and fantasy football season. Our weekly tiered defense rankings are a guide to making waiver wire pickups to improve your lineups, and to decide which defenses to start, sit, target, avoid or stream for Week 17. I've broken out our defense rankings into tiers with analysis on each matchup. Some of these Week 17 defenses have good matchups and are not widely-owned, representing fantasy scoring opportunities if they are available on your league's waiver wire for a Week 17 pickup or add.

Returning for this year: Confidence Ratings (out of 15) - Since every league's DST scoring is different, projections don't always make a ton of sense. The confidence rating, which Bill Dubiel started last year, is a guideline for how much more I like one team over another instead of a straight point projection. A zero means "do not start," then the confidence rises from there. I take a lot of factors into account: opponent injuries, home-field advantage, weather (which will be updated during the week), etc. We still have only one game of in-season data to work with, so this week's rankings weigh schedule and personnel heavier than they will down the line.

Typically the top three tiers will be DSTs you should target, with Tier 4 being options in deep leagues and Tier 5 being desperation plays or above-average defenses in horrendous matchups.

Tier 1 Defenses

Cincinnati showed some life on Sunday, but I think that had more to do with the Texans' defense than anything. The Ravens will be playing for their playoff lives, so I expect them to come prepared. The key for them will be health. Cornerbacks Jimmy Smith and Marcus Peters missed the game on Sunday against the Giants and while they likely won't be necessary to win against Brandon Allen and the Bengals, they'll help to put an emphatic stamp on it. The Bengals offensive line is 31st in sacks allowed, and this Ravens defense is top-10 in pressure rate and leads the NFL in blitz rate. They'll be in the backfield all day.

I've gotten some heat for being low on the Colts in recent weeks, but they are the 15th-ranked defense over the last five weeks, and their injuries in the secondary have started to catch up to them a little bit. They collapsed late in the game against Pittsburgh, so they are now playing not just to win the division but also get into the playoffs. However, they are not a bad defense overall, and I expect them to come out firing against Mike Glennon and the Jaguars. The Colts get very little pressure as a defense, but they are 4th in the NFL in defensive drives that end in a turnover, so I think they can take advantage of Glennon and a Jaguars offense that will likely be without James Robinson as they try to secure the #1 overall pick.

Seattle is the 3rd ranked defense over the last five weeks and has climbed to 7th in the league in total sacks. Now they face a 49ers team that is banged up on the offensive line and 21st in sacks allowed. With C.J. Beathard at quarterback, they looked decidedly mediocre, even in a win against Arizona on Saturday. The Seahawks have a chance, albeit a small one, at the number one seed in the NFC, so they will likely come ready to play on Sunday. It's possible they take their foot off of the gas in the second half if Green Bay or New Orleans are up by a bunch, but I don't think you can plan around that. Take the hot defense against a team with nothing to play for.

Washington will be playing for the division title, so, similar to the teams above, they are going to come to play. Their offense is a mess, but they are the 2nd ranked defense over the last five weeks, averaging 10.6 points per game over that span. They are 6th in the NFL in sacks and 9th in pressure rate, going up against arguably the worst offensive line in football. The Eagles are dead last in sacks allowed and have allowed 14 more sacks than the Bengals at 31. On Sunday, we saw why we are still OK playing defenses against the Eagles, even with Jalen Hurts at quarterback. With Washington's elite pass rush, I expect them to cause havoc against an Eagles team that has nothing to play for.

Tier 2 Defenses

Who knows what to make of this Cardinals and Rams game. The Rams will likely be without Jared Goff, who injured his thumb on Sunday and had to undergo surgery. That will likely be a big boost to a Cardinals defense that is 5th in sacks and 6th in pressure rate since they will now get to attack John Wolford, an undrafted free agent out of Wake Forest who has never played in an NFL game. However, the Rams are the #1 fantasy defense over the last five weeks, averaging 11 points per game, and the Cardinals looked awful against a 49ers Defense that had been throttled by other teams heading into Saturday. The winner of this game is headed to the playoffs, so you know they're going to come out swinging, but it may be more of a defensive showdown than people are expecting.

Putting the Cowboys this high makes me queasy, but we need to acknowledge the way they've been playing recently. They're the top-ranked fantasy defense over the last four weeks, averaging 11 points per game, and we able to finish as the 2nd-ranked defense in Week 16 despite the Eagles with Jalen Hurts looking like a dynamic offense the weeks prior. Now they get a Giants team that shouldn't pose nearly as much of a threat. Technically, the Giants and Cowboys are both still alive, so I expect them to play their starters, but Daniel Jones still doesn't seem fully healthy and the Giants only gained 269 yards as a team on Sunday. They've scored 26 points in their last three games combined, and I expect the Cowboys to take advantage of an offensive line that is 30th in sacks allowed.

Tier 3 Defenses

The Bills dominated on Monday night yet and are now heading into Week 17 playing for the #2 seed, so they will likely play their full starting squad. Since their bye week, the Bills have been able to get their starting defense healthy and have looked closer to the unit from last season. They are the 5th-ranked defense over the last four weeks and are a much different unit than the one Miami saw earlier in the season. With Miami also playing to get into the playoffs, both teams will likely treat this game as normal. These are turnover-happy defenses that should take advantage of quarterbacks that like to be aggressive (assuming Ryan Fitzpatrick plays for Miami). I expect points to be scored here, but I think there will be some sacks and picks. Keep an eye on the weather because it is January football in Buffalo.

The Patriots looked terrible on Monday night and have already ended the seasons of some of their better defenders. I expect them to play a lot of young players on Sunday, and the Jets seem like the far more motivated bunch over the past two weeks. This game will likely be ugly, but I don't think the Patriots are the slam dunk defense that early rankings seem to indicate.

Tier 4 Defenses

I know some people are really high on the Saints defense this week, but since Week 12, they are the 17th-ranked defense in fantasy football, and the matchup with Carolina is not a good one. Even with Christian McCaffrey out, the Panthers have moved the ball well through the air and that's where the Saints have proven to be weak this season. This game could shootout, provided the Panthers play their starters.

*Kansas City has clinched the #1 seed in the AFC, so I expect them to rest their starters on offense and defense either the whole game or for at least a half. That makes them tough to rank right now until we know for sure, but I would assume the Chargers score a fair amount of points on back-up defenders in the second half, and the Chargers defense could be a sneaky DFS option considering they will spend a lot of time playing against back-ups.

Tampa Bay may also rest its starters with a wild card spot locked up. They did bench Brady in the second half on Saturday. Bruce Arians claims he won't, but keep an eye on it and move the Atlanta defense up into tier four if it seems like the Bucs will rest key pieces of the offense. However, Atlanta has nothing to play for, so we'll see if they use this game to get a look at some younger players.

Tier 5 Defenses

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