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Week 17 Consistency Reports - Start/Sit Decisions

Ben Rolfe analyzes the first 16 weeks of NFL player data, measuring fantasy football performance using consistency data to help make start/sit lineup decisions.

Week 17 is here and it comes with mixed feelings. On one hand this is one of the most thrilling weeks on calendar. All 32 teams are playing in the space of 12 hours and the playoff scenarios could change hundreds or thousands of times on Sunday. However, this is also the end of regular football, pretty much the end of fantasy football, unless you play DFS. Week 17 always brings a time for reflection for fantasy owners, what were my good decisions? Why did I draft that player? How did I get lucky enough to pick him up off the waiver. Hopefully the article below will give you some insight into how players have performed as a whole this season. Starting next week I will be reviewing the year and looking what lessons we can learn. This week is about helping those people with finals this week.

The information I am going to use in this articles comes from FFstatistics.com, founded by the person who used to write this article, Addison Hayes. Here are the links to the main articles last year where Addison introduced his key terms. The three main elements are standard deviation (explained here), calculations of players floors and ceiling (explained here) and then finally the use of the Coefficient of Variation to calculate Consistency Ratings or COR (explained here). This paragraph is going to be present a lot this year for those of you interested in the math behind the numbers below.

Good luck this week for those of you in those championship game and I hope you all have a Merry Christmas and a Happy Holidays!

Holiday Special! Save 50% on any Premium Pass using discount code THANKS. Win more with our DFS, Betting and Season-Long Pass, get expert tools and advice from proven winners! GAIN ACCESS

 

Quarterbacks

Rank Player Games Total Avg Std. Dev Floor Ceiling CV% COR
1 Patrick Mahomes 15 401.7 26.78 7.03 19.75 33.81 0.26 128.79
2 Matt Ryan 15 331.6 22.11 7.75 14.36 29.85 0.35 85.21
3 Ben Roethlisberger 15 323.2 21.55 7.44 14.11 28.98 0.35 83.97
4 Russell Wilson 15 293.6 19.58 5.99 13.59 25.56 0.31 83.59
5 Andrew Luck 15 301.4 20.09 6.73 13.36 26.83 0.33 80.08
6 Philip Rivers 15 270 18 5.42 12.58 23.42 0.3 77.75
7 Cam Newton 14 278.6 19.9 7.01 12.89 26.91 0.35 76.43
8 Aaron Rodgers 15 311.5 20.77 7.77 13 28.54 0.37 76.32
9 Deshaun Watson 15 315.7 21.05 8.98 12.07 30.03 0.43 70.38
10 Baker Mayfield 13 221.1 17 5.46 11.55 22.46 0.32 69.99
11 Kirk Cousins 15 280.2 18.68 7.2 11.48 25.89 0.39 67.13
12 Carson Wentz 11 202.3 18.39 7.02 11.37 25.41 0.38 66.56
13 Alex Smith 10 140 14 4.01 9.99 18.01 0.29 62.92
14 Tom Brady 15 257.7 17.18 6.61 10.57 23.79 0.38 61.85
15 Dak Prescott 15 262.4 17.49 7.14 10.35 24.64 0.41 60.32
16 Eli Manning 15 223.7 14.91 4.92 9.99 19.84 0.33 60.11
17 Joe Flacco 9 139.2 15.47 5.51 9.96 20.98 0.36 58.91
18 Drew Brees 15 303.9 20.26 10.64 9.62 30.89 0.52 58.85
19 CJ Beathard 5 81 16.2 6.25 9.94 22.45 0.39 58.15
20 Jimmy Garoppolo 3 46 15.34 5.76 9.58 21.1 0.38 56.19
21 Ryan Fitzpatrick 8 165.8 20.73 12.47 8.26 33.2 0.6 55.2
22 Andy Dalton 11 174.5 15.87 6.66 9.21 22.52 0.42 53.7
23 Case Keenum 15 204.4 13.63 4.64 8.99 18.27 0.34 53.66
24 Jared Goff 15 288.4 19.22 10.88 8.35 30.1 0.57 53.2
25 Jameis Winston 10 171.9 17.19 8.4 8.78 25.59 0.49 52.34
26 Mitchell Trubisky 13 252.9 19.45 11.65 7.81 31.1 0.6 51.95
27 Nick Mullens 7 104.4 14.91 6.3 8.61 21.22 0.42 50.21
28 Josh Johnson 3 43.6 14.52 6 8.52 20.52 0.41 49.65
29 Derek Carr 15 225.3 15.02 7.49 7.53 22.5 0.5 45.14
30 Matthew Stafford 15 201.7 13.45 6.41 7.04 19.86 0.48 41.65

The table above (and each table in the article) is sorted by players 2018 COR through 16 weeks from largest to smallest. This week will be about navigating the start and sit decisions and finding not just the best players but also the players most likely to play 60 minutes. You ca get away if a player only plays 45 minutes but you need him to absolutely torch the opposition in those 45 minutes. Anything less and you might be in trouble.

There are a lot of names in the top-10 who I expect to play a reasonable amount on Sunday. Cam Newton is obviously injured but all of the other nine could conceivable be on the field the whole time. I might look to avoid names like Baker Mayfield and Deshaun Watson who have tough matchups, but otherwise most of them are good to go. Lower down, Dak Prescott and Drew Brees are the only quarterbacks with everything already locked up. However, Brees is going for the MVP and is facing the defense of a team which seems to be giving up somewhat.

 

Running Backs

Rank Player Games Total Avg Std. Dev Floor Ceiling CV% COR
1 Keith Ford 2 13 6.5 0.28 6.22 6.78 0.04 155.88
2 Melvin Gordon 11 261.9 23.81 6.3 17.51 30.1 0.26 113.86
3 Todd Gurley 14 369.1 26.36 8.11 18.26 34.47 0.31 112.11
4 Saquon Barkley 15 360.6 24.04 7.88 16.16 31.92 0.33 97.36
5 Christian McCaffrey 15 376.5 25.1 9.35 15.75 34.45 0.37 92.47
6 Ezekiel Elliott 15 335.2 22.35 8.12 14.22 30.47 0.36 83.83
7 Alvin Kamara 15 348.2 23.21 10.73 12.48 33.95 0.46 73.42
8 James Conner 12 267.6 22.3 10.72 11.58 33.02 0.48 68.68
9 Kareem Hunt 11 231.2 21.02 9.85 11.17 30.87 0.47 65.87
10 Joe Mixon 13 233.7 17.98 7.33 10.65 25.31 0.41 62.08
11 James White 15 261.7 17.45 8.73 8.71 26.18 0.5 52.29
12 David Johnson 15 238.9 15.93 7.35 8.58 23.27 0.46 50.45
13 Alex Collins 10 115.6 11.56 3.5 8.06 15.06 0.3 49.75
14 Marshawn Lynch 6 79 13.17 4.92 8.24 18.09 0.37 48.39
15 Kerryon Johnson 10 142.4 14.24 6.2 8.04 20.44 0.44 46.94
16 Phillip Lindsay 15 222.8 14.85 7.01 7.84 21.87 0.47 46.31
17 Devonta Freeman 2 14.1 7.05 1.34 5.71 8.39 0.19 44.04
18 Dalvin Cook 10 146 14.6 7.73 6.87 22.33 0.53 42.18
19 Chris Carson 13 185.5 14.27 7.35 6.92 21.62 0.52 41.98
20 Leonard Fournette 8 120.4 15.05 9.24 5.81 24.29 0.61 39.56
21 Tarik Cohen 15 228.4 15.23 9.71 5.52 24.94 0.64 39.11
22 Lamar Miller 13 163 12.54 6.4 6.13 18.94 0.51 37.08
23 Aaron Jones 12 173.5 14.46 9.32 5.14 23.78 0.64 36.89
24 Marlon Mack 11 158.3 14.39 10 4.39 24.39 0.7 35.09
25 Kenyan Drake 15 197.7 13.18 8.02 5.16 21.2 0.61 34.84
26 Adrian Peterson 15 194 12.93 7.69 5.24 20.63 0.59 34.67
27 Theo Riddick 13 114.1 8.78 2.98 5.8 11.75 0.34 34.66
28 Mark Ingram 11 138.2 12.56 7.23 5.34 19.79 0.58 34.4
29 Austin Ekeler 13 161 12.38 7.01 5.37 19.4 0.57 34.26
30 Darren Sproles 5 55.4 11.08 5.33 5.75 16.41 0.48 34.1
31 TJ Yeldon 14 177.1 12.65 7.63 5.02 20.28 0.6 33.63
32 Jalen Richard 15 156.8 10.45 4.86 5.6 15.31 0.46 32.96
33 Jordan Howard 15 157.6 10.51 4.93 5.57 15.44 0.47 32.88
34 Jay Ajayi 4 43.4 10.85 5.69 5.16 16.54 0.52 31.55
35 Tevin Coleman 15 181.2 12.08 7.5 4.58 19.58 0.62 31.53
36 Matt Breida 14 164.5 11.75 7.84 3.91 19.59 0.67 29.36
37 Elijah McGuire 7 80.7 11.53 7.71 3.82 19.23 0.67 28.78
38 Sony Michel 12 136.1 11.34 7.54 3.8 18.88 0.66 28.41
39 Nick Chubb 15 192.5 12.83 10.66 2.17 23.5 0.83 28.28
40 Nyheim Hines 15 156 10.4 6.24 4.16 16.64 0.6 27.73
41 Kenneth Dixon 5 43.5 8.7 4.03 4.67 12.73 0.46 27.47
42 Dion Lewis 15 157.4 10.49 6.64 3.86 17.13 0.63 27.08
43 Derrick Henry 15 191.2 12.75 12.07 0.68 24.81 0.95 26.21
44 Peyton Barber 15 146.5 9.77 5.84 3.93 15.6 0.6 26.11
45 Isaiah Crowell 13 142.7 10.98 8.46 2.52 19.44 0.77 25.22
46 Bilal Powell 7 62.3 8.9 4.93 3.97 13.83 0.55 24.97
47 Ito Smith 13 97.7 7.52 3.52 3.99 11.04 0.47 23.55
48 Jaylen Samuels 8 78.3 9.79 7.4 2.39 17.19 0.76 22.73
49 Jeff Wilson 5 47.5 9.5 7.07 2.43 16.57 0.74 22.27
50 Javorius Allen 11 95.7 8.7 6.03 2.67 14.73 0.69 21.26

This week we are navigating a lot at the running back position. Not only do we have the usual injuries but now we have the added issue of teams maybe wanting to keep guys fresh heading into the playoffs. Take the Steelers for example, James Conner seems healthy and has had three weeks off, but how much use he will get could depend on the situation. The Steelers may decide if things start looking good for them that they need another week of recovery behind him for the playoffs. It is a delicate line to thread.

There are a lot of injuries in this list but those players names being here still tells you something. If you see a name like Aaron Jones then you know the opportunity is there for a Green Bay running back to have a solid week contributing to your fantasy team. The person who stands in may not be as good but he has an opportunity and that is what matters.

 

Wide Receivers

Rank Player Games Total Avg Std. Dev Floor Ceiling CV% COR
1 Davante Adams 15 327.6 21.84 5.2 16.64 27.04 0.24 113.57
2 Julian Edelman 11 188.4 17.13 3.93 13.19 21.06 0.23 91.72
3 DeAndre Hopkins 15 315.8 21.05 7.58 13.47 28.63 0.36 79.52
4 Antonio Brown 15 323.7 21.58 8.67 12.91 30.25 0.4 75.27
5 Julio Jones 15 304 20.27 7.66 12.6 27.93 0.38 73.87
6 Adam Thielen 15 301.6 20.11 8.13 11.98 28.23 0.4 69.86
7 Odell Beckham Jr 12 223.1 18.59 6.86 11.73 25.45 0.37 69
8 Robert Woods 15 263.1 17.54 6.58 10.96 24.12 0.38 64.26
9 Keenan Allen 14 249.7 17.84 7.03 10.81 24.86 0.39 63.11
10 Michael Thomas 15 313.6 20.91 10.78 10.12 31.69 0.52 61.44
11 JuJu Smith-Schuster 15 282.2 18.81 9.15 9.66 27.97 0.49 57.48
12 TY Hilton 13 230.9 17.76 8.27 9.49 26.03 0.47 55.89
13 AJ Green 9 158.4 17.6 8.17 9.43 25.77 0.46 55.5
14 Mike Evans 15 261.8 17.45 8.22 9.23 25.67 0.47 54.51
15 Stefon Diggs 14 251.6 17.97 9.08 8.89 27.05 0.51 53.53
16 Tyler Lockett 15 205.5 13.7 4.74 8.96 18.44 0.35 53.3
17 Tyreek Hill 15 302.4 20.16 12.38 7.78 32.54 0.61 53
18 Emmanuel Sanders 12 194.1 16.18 7.27 8.9 23.45 0.45 52.15
19 Brandin Cooks 14 221 15.79 7.01 8.78 22.79 0.44 51.35
20 Trey Quinn 2 22.5 11.25 3.32 7.93 14.57 0.3 49.33
21 Tyler Boyd 14 222.1 15.86 7.86 8.01 23.72 0.5 47.89
22 Willie Snead 13 134.9 10.38 3.18 7.2 13.56 0.31 44.26
23 Cooper Kupp 8 135.1 16.89 10.49 6.4 27.38 0.62 44.07
24 Will Fuller 7 108.3 15.47 8.55 6.92 24.02 0.55 43.46
25 Kenny Golladay 15 207.1 13.81 7.32 6.49 21.12 0.53 39.86
26 Geronimo Allison 5 62.3 12.46 5.98 6.48 18.44 0.48 38.42
27 Alshon Jeffery 12 171.4 14.28 8.61 5.68 22.89 0.6 37.99
28 Curtis Samuel 11 123.6 11.24 4.93 6.31 16.16 0.44 36.86
29 Josh Gordon 12 141.7 11.81 5.61 6.2 17.42 0.48 36.66
30 Jarvis Landry 15 198.4 13.23 7.7 5.53 20.93 0.58 35.95
31 Marvin Jones 9 116.8 12.98 7.51 5.47 20.49 0.58 35.4
32 Brandon LaFell 4 37.5 9.38 3.38 5.99 12.76 0.36 35.35
33 Jamison Crowder 8 81.1 10.14 4.08 6.06 14.21 0.4 35.34
34 Cameron Meredith 3 26.4 8.8 3.01 5.79 11.81 0.34 34.51
35 Dede Westbrook 15 173.6 11.57 6.05 5.52 17.63 0.52 33.7
36 Larry Fitzgerald 15 168.8 11.25 5.64 5.61 16.9 0.5 33.69
37 Allen Robinson 13 159.3 12.25 7.1 5.15 19.36 0.58 33.39
38 Mohamed Sanu 15 162 10.8 5.21 5.59 16.01 0.48 33.21
39 Adam Humphries 15 181.1 12.07 6.9 5.17 18.97 0.57 33.2
40 DeSean Jackson 12 154.3 12.86 8.18 4.68 21.04 0.64 33.07
41 Christian Kirk 12 126.5 10.54 5.35 5.19 15.89 0.51 31.3
42 Sterling Shepard 15 171.9 11.46 6.72 4.74 18.18 0.59 31
43 Golden Tate 14 175.6 12.54 8.59 3.95 21.13 0.68 30.86
44 Amari Cooper 14 211.3 15.09 14.65 0.45 29.74 0.97 30.65
45 Albert Wilson 7 90.7 12.96 9.55 3.41 22.5 0.74 30.55
46 Paul Richardson 7 59.1 8.44 3.23 5.21 11.67 0.38 30.52
47 Keith Kirkwood 7 45.9 6.56 1.84 4.72 8.4 0.28 29.95
48 Robby Anderson 13 162 12.46 8.94 3.52 21.41 0.72 29.82
49 Calvin Ridley 15 195.6 13.04 10.43 2.61 23.47 0.8 29.35
50 Demaryius Thomas 15 157.7 10.51 5.9 4.61 16.41 0.56 29.25

A lot pf players in this list are still active heading into this week. Of course there is the question of who might get pulled but generally this is a case of start your guys and live with it. The thing to be careful of it who receivers have as their quarterback. For example the Panthers have Kyle Allen starting in New Orleans. The Saints may end up sitting players but Allen's presence makes it very difficult to trust Curtis Samuel or DJ Moore.

 

Tight Ends

Rank Player Games Total Avg Std. Dev Floor Ceiling CV% COR
1 Travis Kelce 15 285.4 19.03 9.91 9.12 28.93 0.52 55.57
2 Zach Ertz 15 277.8 18.52 10.49 8.03 29.01 0.57 51.22
3 George Kittle 15 228.8 15.25 7.76 7.49 23.02 0.51 45.22
4 Eric Ebron 15 207 13.8 8.13 5.67 21.93 0.59 37.21
5 Hakeem Valles 2 3.1 1.55 0.07 1.48 1.62 0.05 35.53
6 OJ Howard 10 124.5 12.45 6.99 5.46 19.44 0.56 34.62
7 Jordan Reed 12 123.8 10.32 4.42 5.9 14.73 0.43 34.42
8 Jack Doyle 6 62.5 10.42 5.33 5.09 15.75 0.51 30.78
9 Jared Cook 15 187.8 12.52 8.92 3.6 21.44 0.71 30.1
10 Tyler Eifert 4 38.9 9.73 4.65 5.07 14.38 0.48 30.05
11 Evan Engram 10 103.6 10.36 5.48 4.88 15.84 0.53 29.96
12 Vance McDonald 14 128.1 9.15 4.96 4.19 14.11 0.54 26.02
13 Rob Gronkowski 12 128.8 10.73 7.93 2.8 18.66 0.74 25.26
14 Lee Smith 6 35.3 5.88 1.79 4.09 7.68 0.3 25.18
15 Austin Hooper 15 150.3 10.02 6.79 3.23 16.81 0.68 24.81
16 Greg Olsen 9 83.1 9.23 5.66 3.58 14.89 0.61 24.3
17 David Njoku 15 136.7 9.11 5.98 3.13 15.09 0.66 23
18 Kyle Rudolph 15 148.5 9.9 7.52 2.38 17.42 0.76 22.93
19 Geoff Swaim 8 56.2 7.03 3.11 3.92 10.13 0.44 22.92
20 Chris Herndon 13 114.4 8.8 5.77 3.03 14.57 0.66 22.22
21 Jimmy Graham 15 125.5 8.37 5.23 3.14 13.6 0.63 21.75
22 Trey Burton 15 140.6 9.37 7.3 2.07 16.67 0.78 21.41
23 Mark Andrews 14 97.8 6.99 3.61 3.38 10.59 0.52 20.52
24 CJ Uzomah 15 103.3 6.89 4.05 2.84 10.94 0.59 18.6
25 Anthony Firkser 7 45.7 6.53 3.77 2.76 10.3 0.58 17.83
26 Will Dissly 4 35.6 8.9 8.98 -0.08 17.88 1.01 17.72
27 Ian Thomas 9 64.2 7.13 5.43 1.7 12.56 0.76 16.5
28 Ben Watson 12 82.1 6.84 5.15 1.69 12 0.75 15.92
29 Jake Butt 3 16.5 5.5 3.04 2.46 8.54 0.55 15.44
30 Cameron Brate 14 90 6.43 4.75 1.68 11.18 0.74 15.12

You may have gathered that this position drives me nuts for fantasy football. It is is almost impossible to trust anyone but the very best, and even then they let you down. Of the players still active the top six (Kelce, Ertz, Kittle, Ebron, Cook and Engram) are now must-starts when on the field. Those are the six, with Gronkowski right there as well, that you just start and deal with the outcome. If you sit any of those guys then you are getting too cute, and if it does not work out for you then I assure that you will kick yourself for it Monday morning.

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REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Pelle Larsson

Back on Friday Night
Gary Trent Jr.

Ruled Out For Friday Night Against Memphis
Bam Adebayo

Will Miss Friday's Game Versus Atlanta
Justin Champagnie

Downgraded To Questionable For Friday Night
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Now Downgraded To Questionable For Friday
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Won't Play Versus Charlotte
Tristan da Silva

Returns To Action On Friday Night Against Hornets
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Ruled Out Again on Friday
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Downgraded To Out For Matchup Against Charlotte
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Available On Friday Against Pacers
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Ruled Out with Hamstring Injury for Week 17
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Expected to Play on Sunday
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Ruled Out with Concussion for Saturday's Contest
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"Likely a Game-Time Decision" on Sunday Night
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To Miss Several Games With Groin Injury
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Status In Question On Friday
A.J. Brown

Returns to Practice on Friday
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Remains Sidelined Friday
Gary Trent Jr.

Questionable With Calf Issue
Quentin Grimes

Still Battling Illness Friday
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Iffy For Friday Clash With Chicago
Corey Kispert

To Miss More Time With Hamstring Tightness
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To Miss Another Game On Friday Night
Pelle Larsson

Listed As Probable For Friday Night Against Hawks
Josh Allen

Trending Toward Playing Vs. Philly
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Goga Bitadze

Questionable, Could Miss Second Straight Game
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Texas Leading Rusher Quintrevion Wisner Set to Transfer
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NHL Power Rankings: Vezina Trophy Rankings (December Update)
George Kittle

Remains Sidelined During Thursday's Practice
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Carrying Questionable Tag for Week 17 Tilt
Jordan Love

Questionable for Saturday's Contest
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Listed as Doubtful for Week 17
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to Suit Up on Christmas Day
NHL

NHL DFS Picks and Heat Map (Premium Content) - December 27, 2025
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"Increasing Unlikely to Play" in Week 17
Chris Rodriguez Jr.

Carries Questionable Tag on Thursday
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Expected to Play on Christmas Day
David Montgomery

Questionable to Play With Illness
Amon-Ra St. Brown

Questionable, Expected to Play on Thursday
Rashee Rice

Chiefs Place Rashee Rice on Injured Reserve
T.J. Hockenson

Ruled Out for Week 17
Pete Fairbanks

Marlins Agree on One-Year Deal
Josh Johnson

to Start at QB on Thursday Against Dallas
Brooks Koepka

Leaving LIV Golf
Davante Adams

Could Sit Out Final Two Regular-Season Games
Brock Bowers

Placed on Injured Reserve Due to Lingering Knee Injury
Connor McDavid

Finishes Battle of Alberta With Five Assists
Karel Vejmelka

Battling Upper-Body Injury
Alexandre Texier

Suffers Upper-Body Injury Against Bruins
Alexander Nikishin

Dealing With Apparent Ankle Injury
Denver Barkey

Exits Early Tuesday
Travis Sanheim

Pulled by Concussion Spotter Tuesday
Ryan O'Hearn

Pirates Agree on Two-Year Deal
Viktor Arvidsson

a Game-Time Decision Tuesday
Ryan Leonard

Available Tuesday
Tom Wilson

in Danger of Missing First Game of the Season
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Available Against Golden Knights
Jack Eichel

Misses Fourth Straight Game
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Won't Play Tuesday
CFB

Jeff Brohm, Eli Drinkwitz "Names of Interest" for Michigan Head Coach
Timothy Liljegren

to Miss Second Straight Game Tuesday
Will Smith

Out Week-to-Week
Jaccob Slavin

Placed on Injured Reserve, Out Week-to-Week
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Considered Week-to-Week
Darren Raddysh

Totals Three Points in Monday's Win
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Scores Twice Monday
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Byrum Brown Entering Transfer Portal
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Bobby Petrino Joining Bill Belichick as North Carolina's Offensive Coordinator
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Shipped to the Red Sox

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