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Keith Hernandez analyzes NFL players to consider sitting or benching for Week 16. These are his top potential fantasy football lineup busts to avoid starting.
We're finally here. Week 16. The week that all fantasy owners envisioned themselves playing in for a fantasy title when they were drafting their teams this Fall. If you were lucky enough to make it this far, kudos to you. It surely took plenty of savvy waiver wire pickups and an opportunistic trade or two to get you here. And also some luck. It wouldn't be fantasy football without some, or a lot, of that. But most importantly, you made the right calls on player evaluations before the year and throughout the season. Pat yourself on the back. But there's still work to be done...
This late in the game (or season) it almost always feels like a war of attrition. Whose roster is the most intact after the dust settles? If you made it this far on the backs of Dalvin Cook (shoulder), Josh Jacobs (shoulder), Mike Evans (hamstring) or Chris Godwin (hamstring), you could be in trouble for the fantasy finals. But don't fret, there's always hope. For all the key late-season injuries, you can usually always strike gold with players like Breshad Perriman (three touchdowns in Week 15).
Below are 10 potential busts for Week 16 of the 2019 fantasy football season.
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Potential Quarterback Busts for Week 16
Baker Mayfield - Cleveland Browns Vs. Ravens
He managed a season-high 342 yards passing in the 40-25 win over the Ravens in their first meeting, but that came way back on Sept. 29 when Baltimore's defense was injured and inconsistent. Since then, they've been dominating opponents and have allowed the fewest fantasy points per game (13.0) to the position in the last five weeks. And they're still playing for the top overall seed and home-field advantage in the AFC playoffs. Mayfield has obviously been a disappointment in 2019, but we're praying for you if you're forced to start him with a fantasy trophy or dinero on the line.
Jameis Winston - Tampa Bay Buccaneers Vs. Texans (Saturday)
Famous Jameis is proving his critics wrong by leading the NFL with 4,573 yards through 15 weeks. He's on pace for the fourth most passing yards in NFL history in a single season. It helps when you have the best receiving duo in the league. He won't have either available this weekend, though, and he's also battling through a fractured thumb.
It didn't matter against Detroit's hapless secondary in Week 15, as he went off for a season-high 458 yards and four touchdowns. Winston has gone over 450 passing yards in each of the last two weeks, and he has eight touchdowns and four interceptions in that time. He could still rack up the yards against a Texans Defense that's allowing the third most fantasy points per game to QBs, but a drop-off seems inevitable with Breshad Perriman as his No. 1 wideout. Winston also leads the NFL with 24 interceptions.
Others: Josh Allen (@ Patriots), Patrick Mahomes (@ Bears)
Potential Running Back Busts for Week 16
Nick Chubb - Cleveland Browns Vs. Ravens
Like Mayfield, Chubb had a banner day (165 rushing yards, three touchdowns) in the first meeting with Baltimore. But that was also before Kareem Hunt returned from his suspension. We don't expect Cleveland to put up anywhere close to the 40 points they scored that September day. Chubb has gone for 100-plus rushing yards the last two weeks against weak opponents in the Cardinals and Bengals. Baltimore's defense is firing on all cylinders and should be able to do better than they did against Chubb earlier this year.
Todd Gurley - Los Angeles Rams @ 49ers (Saturday)
He has four touchdowns (one receiving) in the last three games, but Gurley is a shell of his former self and has yet to rack up a 100-yard rushing game in 2019. That's unlikely to come against San Fran's stout D. They've allowed just 11.3 fantasy points per game to the position in their last five games and only one rushing score. If Gurley can't find paydirt, he's likely to leave you hanging in the fantasy finals this weekend. He's not helping much in the passing game either, as his six targets in Week 15 were the second most this year.
Carlos Hyde - Houston Texans @ Buccaneers (Saturday)
Hyde is coming off a season-high 26 carries for 104 yards and a touchdown in the big win over the Titans. That could be short-lived. He has only 15 targets in the passing game all season long, and Tampa's defense is stout against the run and extremely vulnerable through the air. The Bucs are tied with New England in allowing the fewest fantasy points per game (12.2) to running backs this year. Similar to Gurley, Hyde will disappoint you if he doesn't score a touchdown.
Others: Derrick Henry (Vs. Saints), Sony Michel (Vs. Bills), Le'Veon Bell (Vs. Steelers)
Potential Wide Receiver Busts for Week 16
Julian Edelman - New England Patriots Vs. Bills (Saturday)
His dud in Week 15 against the Bengals (two catches for nine yards) likely eliminated a lot of teams in the fantasy semifinals. The five-target day broke a string of eight straight games with double-digit targets. The Patriots didn't need him anyway in the 34-13 win, but Edelman clearly isn't 100 percent and is facing a Bills team that held him to four catches for 30 yards in their first meeting. We'd be surprised if Edelman has five or fewer targets again, but Buffalo's secondary has the talent to shut him down, especially if he's not fully healthy.
Tyrell Williams - Oakland Raiders @ Chargers
Williams broke his touchdown drought last week with a 40-yard catch against the Jaguars. Don't let that fool you into thinking he's starting another TD streak -- he began the season scoring in five straight games. Williams is as touchdown-dependent as they come. The volume just isn't there, as he's been targeted 17 times in the team's four-game losing streak. The Chargers are one of the best at defending wideouts, and their strong secondary is fully healthy. Williams had just three catches for 25 yards the first time he met his old team in 2019. He could see even fewer looks with rookie Hunter Renfrow (rib) set to return, too.
Allen Robinson - Chicago Bears Vs. Chiefs
The Bears don't plan on resting starters the rest of the way now that they're eliminated from playoff contention, but that could change quickly if the Chiefs blow them out Sunday night. And KC's defense, not their offense, has been getting the attention of late with their solid play. They've allowed just 14.6 fantasy points per game to wideouts in their last four games. A-Rob is coming off his second 100-yard game of the season and has scored four touchdowns in the last four games, but this Chiefs secondary isn't a pushover like they've been in recent seasons.
Others: John Brown (@ Patriots), Robby Anderson (Vs. Steelers), Tyreek Hill (@ Bears)
Potential Tight End Busts for Week 16
Tyler Higbee - Los Angeles Rams @ 49ers (Saturday)
What a revelation Higbee has been for owners that wisely scooped him up when Gerald Everett went down with injury. In the three games with Everett sidelined, Higbee has 26 receptions, 33 targets, 334 yards and one touchdown. The Rams are unlikely to change things up suddenly with Everett returning this weekend, but the ceiling will be lowered. The 49ers Defense makes it more difficult, as they've allowed just 5.6 fantasy points per game to the position all year long.
Jack Doyle - Indianapolis Colts Vs. Panthers
Doyle took advantage of Eric Ebron's season-ending injury on Dec. 1 with six receptions on a season-high 11 targets for 73 yards and a touchdown. But in two games since, he has just four catches (11 targets) for 48 yards against the Bucs and Saints. The Colts are playing out the string and will likely stick with their run-first approach against Carolina. T.Y. Hilton's improving health should only take valuable targets away from Doyle, too. Doyle is unlikely to rule as you attempt to win a fantasy championship.
Others: Jason Witten (@ Eagles), Travis Kelce (@ Bears)
