RADIO
Blake Sullivan dives into weekly Points League strategy for your fantasy baseball leagues and looks at MLB players to target on the waiver wire or drop in week 14 of the 2018 season.
Welcome back for another week of advice for points league waiver wire moves. This segment will include waiver wire adds, drops, and streaming pitchers for the upcoming week. This article will be geared specifically toward points leagues. Every points league is different, so keep that in mind. Walks and extra base hits are more valuable, whereas AVG and ERA are not important, so consider that as well.
Some players will be suggested as streamers (while they are hot), or as rest-of-season adds (ride them all year).
As always, feel free to follow and message me on Twitter @BlakeSullivanFF for any fantasy advice or for further reasoning with this segment. Without further ado, let's take a look at some players that you should either add or drop.
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Points League Players to Add
Kike Hernandez (SS/2B/OF, LAD) - 18% owned
Enrique Hernandez is a hot hitter on a hot team. The Los Angeles Dodgers lineup has gotten back into its playoff form from last season, and it's due in part to the contributions from Hernandez. Hernandez only has a .241 AVG, but he has a much better .340 wOBA. The most valuable thing about his game is his .51 BB/K ratio which means he walks more than half as many times as he strikes out. This makes his value higher in points leagues because you will get points almost everyday guaranteed. He only has six doubles which is concerning, but he still has plenty of pop because he has 13 home runs. Hernandez is a player to start everyday to have a good chance of solid points each week. He wont be a top scorer, but at his current own percentage he's a steal and could be a solid piece moving forward.
Mark Trumbo (OF/DH, BAL) - 26% owned
Mark Trumbo's power days may be slowing down slightly, but he's still capable of smashing the ball out of the park and has eight homers in 47 games this year. Trumbo has been putting up points like crazy. He's on a 12 game hitting streak in which he has five home runs. Although he's typically only getting one hit over each of those games, he managed to get 12 RBI. The season is still young for Trumbo, and he has a low own percentage still. Some competitive leagues may have seen him added, but he may be available still. Trumbo is slugging .321/.462/.783 on the year. He may have first base eligibility in some leagues which would really raise his value as he could fill almost any role on your fantasy team. He has a 41.4% hard hit rate which could lead to RBI and extra bases. Trumbo is one of the top 10 scoring hitters over the past couple weeks.
Jake Bauers (OF/1B, TB) - 17% owned
The rookie Jake Bauers is off to a hot start in the big leagues for the Tampa Bay Rays. He has showcased some power with two home runs and seven doubles in just 20 games. What's amazing is that he already has 15 walks. That's good for a .79 BB/K. Bauers has a ton of potential in keeper leagues as he's still only 22 years old. He holds plenty of value in redraft leagues as his wOBA is at .392. His BABIP has always been high throughout his career. This doesn't necessarily mean anything and I rarely use this stat, but given the consistency of it, I can conclude it's due to his ability to control where he hits the ball easily. If that rings true he should get on base often and score a lot of points as long as he isn't striking out a ton. Bauers can be considered a rest of season pickup, but be careful as pitchers may start to get a better scouting report on how to pitch to him. He's still young, but the window to grab him is closing fast.
Points League Pitchers to Stream
Kyle Freeland (SP, COL) - Monday 7/2/18 vs. SF - 43% owned
Kyle Freeland has had a great year for the Colorado Rockies. He has a 7-6 record but is 6-2 in his last eight decisions. He has a 3.29 ERA and a 1.22 WHIP. Freeland has been good in tough situations as opponents are only hitting .188 with runners in scoring position. He has also stranded 80.5% of runners. He gets the benefit of having a two start week as he gets the San Francisco Giants and the Seattle Mariners. Freeland has been very consistent this season as he has been able to pitch fairly deep into games without giving up too many runs. He's a great play this week for his volume, but he would fill in nicely for someone injured or under-performing.
Brent Suter (SP, MIL) - Monday 7/2/18 vs. MIN - 42% owned
Brent Suter has been solid for the Milwaukee Brewers lately. He has a two start week in which he faces the Minnesota Twins and the Atlanta Braves. He did well in his last start against the Twins striking out six batters and only giving up one run in a winning effort. Suter has a 4.28 ERA and a 1.15 WHIP. His last eight starts were all for positive points with six of those being double digit gains. Suter has struggled at times with giving up home runs. He has had better command and has improved his strikeout rate to a 7.44 K/9. Suter should be streamed this week for two solid chances at points, but may not be a full time option just yet.
Shane Bieber (SP, CLE) - Tuesday 7/3/18 vs. KC - 40% owned
That's right, Bieber fever is contagious. The Cleveland Indians starting pitcher has been an absolute stud. He has an excellent 2.22 ERA through four starts. He has 27 strikeouts to just four walks. His 3-0 record is proof of how good he is. Bieber has given up 28 hits which is a fair amount, but he has left 89.7% of runners on base. His 51.4% ground ball rate helps him keep damage to a minimum. Bieber is a great option in any format, but he's especially valuable in dynasty leagues as he's only 23 years old. He has a two start week and draws the Kansas City Royals and the Oakland Athletics. Look for him to continue his hot streak and be a long term option for your fantasy team.
Points League Players to Drop
Marwin Gonzalez (SS/1B/2B/OF, HOU) - 68% owned
Marwin Gonzalez is slashing .314/.377/.691 on the year. His wOBA is a below average .302. Although Gonzalez gets to play about everyday because of his eligibility, he hasn't been playing great. He hasn't showcased much speed as he has only stolen two bases. He's in a massive slump going for two hits in his last 32 at bats. Gonzalez wont get you many points for home runs as he only has six homers to his name. Gonzalez could be picked back up if he manages to get on track, but even though he has been playing most days he's getting no pints, so you are better off with a risky or streaky player that offers a higher ceiling.
Kevin Pillar (OF, TOR) - 52% owned
Kevin Pillar has not been playing well and he has had an awful June. He's hitting .202 in June. Pillar only has four doubles and three home runs this month. The worst thing for points leagues is that he doesn't have a single walk this whole month either. His numbers aren't good enough at any position, but with the depth of outfielders available it's hard to roster Pillar unless your fantasy team has a lot of injuries. His hot start to the year may be keeping his own percentage higher than it should be.
Max Kepler (OF, MIN) - 34% owned
Max Kepler hasn't exactly performed like most people expected him to. It may not be time to drop him in dynasty leagues as he's only 25 years old, but he can be dropped in redraft leagues. Kepler has a batting average that is struggling to stay afloat at .221. Kepler hasn't done much on the bases, only wiping two bags. His power numbers are decent but still lower than necessary for your team. He has 18 doubles and eight home runs. He's slugging only .397. Without a high hit rate or speed, he doesn't hold much value at this point in redraft.
