Red Zone Usage - Risers and Fallers for Week 13

November 30, 2018

Richard King looks at red zone risers and fallers to identify players with higher fantasy football scoring potential in Week 13, based on touches and opportunity in the red zone.

It's time to prepare for the playoff stretch and make a run. We all want to know who has the best path to score on Sunday to help give us valuable fantasy points. RotoBaller's Premium Red Zone tool can give you a sense of who is being utilized more in the all-important area of the field to provide more scoring potential. Just like targets are the lifeblood of a receiver's value in PPR leagues, red zone touches are the most relevant factor to consider for standard leagues.

In this article each week, we'll identify red zone risers and fallers who could see their fantasy value impacted by usage in the most critical area of the field. RotoBaller's Red Zone Sleepers tool is a great way to get an edge on the competition by identifying players with greater scoring opportunities.

Let's take a look at which fantasy football players could be touchdown and scoring risers or fallers in fantasy football for Week 13 of the 2018 NFL season, based on red zone opportunities.

Red Zone Risers

RUNNING BACK

Christian McCaffrey (RB, CAR) - 41.3% Red-zone touch %

Another week, another player joining the 40% club. Last week New York Giants running back Saquon Barkley joined the club, and this week it is the turn of Christian McCaffrey. McCaffrey had an amazing performance last week, touching the ball an incredible 14 times last week and scoring two red zone touchdowns; putting that into context, that's an incredible 63% of all of the touches in the red zone. The incredible thing is that McCaffrey had problems with ball security, fumbling the ball a number of times last week so he could have potentially scored more touchdowns than he did. The Panthers offense is rolling with quarterback Cam Newton, and that gives a lot of red-zone opportunities. While Newton has a multitude of weapons in the red zone, McCaffrey will continue to be heavily relied upon due to his dual-threat ability.

Nyheim Hines (RB, IND) - 18.5% Red-zone touch %

Hines is an interesting name as a riser, but his value going forward is tied to the health of fellow running back Marlon Mack. If Mack suffers any setbacks from his concussion, then Hines could be worth an add even on a team that has asked quarterback Andrew Luck to carry the offensive load, rather than trusting their running backs. The Colts may shift the balance towards rushing with the recent injury to tight end Jack Doyle however, even with fellow tight end Eric Ebron being highly effective in the red zone.

WIDE RECEIVERS

Demaryius Thomas (WR, HOU) - 9.6% Red-zone touch%

Thomas moved teams mid-season from the Broncos, and the consensus opinion was that he would struggle to make an impact on an offense where the team had a true alpha-receiver in DeAndre Hopkins. Despite that, Thomas had a great outing in his last game, having two red-zone touches and two touchdowns. While that number isn't overly impressive, the Texans were only able to make four trips to the red zone in their last game. Thomas will have to compete for touches with Hopkins, with Keke Coutee set to miss some time with a hamstring injury, but he could well be worth keeping an eye on as he will attract secondary coverage from opposing defenses.

Mike Williams (WR, LAC) - 9.1% Red-zone touch%

The injury to running back Melvin Gordon is going to change the way the Chargers are going to run their offense in the red zone. The running back duo of Austin Ekeler and Justin Jackson just aren't going to be able to run the ball as effectively as Gordon, meaning that the Chargers are likely going to need to rely on quarterback Philip Rivers. Williams is a very talented receiver, and unlike fellow wide receiver Keenan Allen he has a big body that means he is able to win contested catches in the air.

TIGHT END

Jordan Reed (TE, WAS) - 9.5% Red-zone touch%

A change in quarterback from Alex Smith to Colt McCoy has given Reed increased opportunity in the red zone, with Washington going back to their All-Pro tight end in lieu of other receiving talent. Unfortunately for Redskins fans, that doesn't look like it will change anytime soon with Jamison Crowder having been injured, and Josh Doctson struggling to make any impact on the season. The tight end position this season is not the deepest, and that means that Reed is the type of guy you should try and pick up, if he continues getting touches in the red zone he will end up scoring and repaying the faith.

Red Zone Fallers

RUNNING BACK

Adrian Peterson (RB, WAS) - 32.6% Red-zone touch%

As mentioned above, the change in quarterback seems to have changed the way that the team runs their offense. Peterson didn't get a single touch in the red zone in the Redskins last game, with the team giving the goal-line work to Kapri Bibbs. Peterson looks like he will be leaned upon a lot more to move the chains, and that could mean that he is rotated out of the line up when they get down the red zone in order to keep him fresh. Certainly, if the Redskins struggle to convert their red zone opportunities, then Peterson may return to relevance, but for the moment he is a faller.

WIDE RECEIVER

Devin Funchess (WR, CAR) - 9.6% Red-zone touch%

Funchess' value is dropping quickly, as he just doesn't seem to be able to make effective use of his targets on the field and seems as though he is going to struggle to get red zone usage going forwards. The Panthers have a multitude of options on their offense- with established tight end Greg Olsen and running back Christian McCaffrey to add to the young duo D.J. Moore and Curtis Samuel. The offense doesn't have enough opportunities to share, and Funchess looks like a casualty of that.

TIGHT END

Austin Hooper (TE, ATL) - 12.1% Red-zone touch%

Hooper is also suffering from the multitude of receiving options that Matt Ryan has available to him. Ryan has an elite option with Julio Jones as well as rookie Calvin Ridley as traditional receivers, while also having a dynamic duo of running backs in Tevin Coleman and Ito Smith. The Falcons are able to mix up their play with the effective weapons they have on offense. The tight end position outside of the elite tier is effectively touchdown-or-bust. Hooper isn't getting the opportunity to score those touchdowns for your team, so if possible try looking to other tight ends that are available.

Red Zone Sleepers

RotoBaller's Premium tools offer more detailed insight into player values and help you identify which players to target on the waiver wire and/or trade market. Start with a free one-week trial, including NFL Optimizer and DFS Premium and get an advantage on the competition!

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