Week 12 Sleeper Fantasy Football Picks - Snap Counts, Targets, Usage Analysis

November 22, 2023

Joey analyzes 5 sleeper fantasy football picks for Week 12 based on recent increases in snap counts and usage. Should I start these fantasy football sleepers?

Welcome RotoBallers to another edition of snap count and usage analysis. This is our 12th edition of the year, where every week I highlight those players that had surprisingly high or low snap count/usage from the prior week. It's a good way to see who is trending up in fantasy and who might be trending down.

Those players that are trending up might be great to trade for before the fantasy trade deadline. With most leagues having their trade deadline in the coming weeks, now might be the time to make those last-minute moves. Unfortunately, that trade deadline has passed if your league is held on Yahoo.

But this article is still a great tool to see if any of your players land on this list. Let's dive in and see who lands below as we head into Week 12.

Surprisingly High Snap Count/Usage From Last Week

RB Zach Charbonnet, Seattle Seahawks: 85% snap share 

Seattle Seahawks running back Zach Charbonnet was on this exact list last week after logging 50-plus percent of the team's offensive snaps in three straight contests. In Week 11 against the Los Angeles Rams, Charbonnet was the primary rusher for the Seahawks as Kenneth Walker (oblique) left the contest early. 

With Walker out for the majority of the game, Charbonnet played 55-of-65 possible snaps on Sunday while seeing 85% of the Seahawks' offensive snaps. The high snap share led to 21 touches for 69 yards in the contest. It wasn't the most efficient game for the rookie, but the Rams have done a good job of limiting fantasy points to running backs this season.

If Walker were to miss time -- which seems likely with Seattle playing on a short week on Thursday -- Charbonnet would immediately enter the RB2 fantasy range. The 49ers are a tough matchup for the rookie in Week 12. However, he should see enough volume to be fantasy-relevant, especially in the passing game (where he has thrived all year). 

RB Keaton Mitchell, Baltimore Ravens: 36% snap share

Baltimore Ravens running back Keaton Mitchell continues to get more involved on offense and that was seen evidently in Week 11 against the Cincinnati Bengals. After starting the year on the injured reserve list with a shoulder issue, Mitchell made his pro debut in Week 7.

Since then, the rookie has seen his percentage of snaps increase every week. His snap share has gone from 3% to 18% to 24% to 36% this past weekend. Mitchell went undrafted in the 2023 NFL Draft but really impressed the Ravens during Training Camp and has been a surprise with his limited touches this year.

In Week 9, Mitchell ran nine times for 138 yards and one touchdown and then scored again in Week 10. He had a quiet day in Week 11 with just nine touches for 41 yards. However, he has appeared to already overtake Justice Hill for the RB2 job in Baltimore's offense and could continue to see more snaps as the season progresses.

RB Miles Sanders, Carolina Panthers: 46% snap share 

When the Carolina Panthers signed running back Miles Sanders to a nice four-year contract this offseason, he was set to be the team's workhorse back. However, after a couple of injuries early in the season and inefficiencies on the ground, Sanders was soon demoted to be the backup in Carolina's backfield.

His backup role to Chuba Hubbard started in Week 8 and has continued into Week 11. But Sanders continues to eat into the young running back's role. The 26-year-old veteran has seen his snap share rise in three straight games -- going from 18% to 25% to 38% to now 46%.

Sanders also looked good on the ground against the Dallas Cowboys in Week 11, rushing 11 times for 50 yards. Hubbard only played two more snaps than the veteran this past weekend, and it appears that this backfield could headed to a 50/50 split moving forward.

Other Players To Note: 

• HOU Devin Singletary (85% snap share without Dameon Pierce)
• WAS Brian Robinson Jr. (78% snap share without Antonio Gibson) 

Surprisingly Low Snap Count/Usage From Last Week

RB David Montgomery, Detroit Lions: 40% snap share

Since Detroit Lions running back David Montgomery has returned from his rib injury, he has not seen his usual snap share numbers. In Week 10, he saw 38% of the team snaps, and on Sunday, he played 40% of the offensive snaps. In both contests, Montgomery played just 25 snaps.

Now, it's hard to tell what is causing the low snap share for Montgomery. Are they easing him back into action after missing multiple games this season with different injuries, or is it due to the emergence of rookie running back Jahmyr Gibbs? In reality, it could be a little bit of both.

Last week's game against the Chicago Bears called for more passing opportunities because the Lions trailed for most of the game. So, in games where they are in more control, Montgomery should see more snaps on the field. Still, in just 25 snaps last week, he had 12 carries for 76 yards and one touchdown. He is a must-start every week.

WR Marquise Brown, Arizona Cardinals: two catches for 18 yards

When quarterback Kyler Murray returned, Arizona Cardinals wide receiver Marquise Brown was the biggest buy-low in fantasy. It simply made too much sense not to buy him. He was a top-six fantasy wideout last year as the WR1 in Arizona through the first five weeks while averaging 11 targets per game.

Well, this year has not seen the same production from Brown with Murray under center. In Week 10, the 26-year-old wideout saw just four targets and in Week 11, he had five targets. Over those two games, he has just three catches for 46 yards combined.

It is important to note that the matchups against the Atlanta Falcons and Houston Texans weren't easy. Both are great at preventing fantasy points to outside wide receivers this season. So, better days could be in store for Brown with some great matchups upcoming against the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 13 and the San Francisco 49ers in Week 15. 

Other Players To Note: 

• PIT Diontae Johnson (three catches over the past two weeks)
• GB Christian Watson (three straight games with two catches or less)

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