Week 10 Defense (DEF) Streamers and Starts - 2020 Fantasy Tiers, Rankings

Week 9 saw the surprise return of some of the league's previously dominant defenses playing up to past form. Despite taking on dangerous offensive opponents, the New Orleans Saints and Buffalo Bills both put together top-5 finishes, and the Tennessee Titans took advantage of a poor Bears offense to also finish inside the top-10 defensive units for the week.

With those surprises and the Patriots laying a defensive egg against the Jets, I managed to get five of this week's top 10 units correct. It wasn't the best week, but we can't linger on the missed calls in fantasy football, so we turn our attention to the next week.

Surveying the landscape for Week 10, there appears to be a massive cluster near the middle of the top-10. Some normally strong defenses have difficult matchups and we also have a few high-scoring games that could also yield large defensive totals. As a result, I think this is an exciting but risky week for fantasy defenses. There will be some boring, safe choices that could net you 5-6 points, but there are a few teams that could get double-digits or finish with 1-2 points.

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Picking The Right Defenses

One mediocre week isn't going to take away from the primary strategy that we've been using to pick defenses all season. When choosing a defense, you want to be looking for defenses that get consistent pressure and takeaways. Sacks and turnovers are more valuable for fantasy defense than preventing yardage and even, to a certain extent, preventing points.  If a defense allows a stingy yards per play number, that's great and I'll cite some of those numbers below - but they better also be able to get into the backfield or force turnovers, or else it won't really matter in the long run. That's why the Chiefs Defense was so good last year, despite getting into a ton of shootouts. Teams against them were forced to play up-tempo and throw a lot, which led to sack opportunities and turnovers despite giving up lots of points.

Essentially, we need to move away from points against as being the most important factor in choosing a fantasy defense. NFL offenses have scored 6,680 points or 25.3 points per game so far this season and allowed 362.8 yards per team per game, which is the most through the first nine weeks of any season in the Super Bowl era in either stat. It's important to also note that all of those per game numbers have INCREASED each of the past three weeks, so teams are only scoring more and gaining more yards, not slowly regressing to the mean.

With offenses putting up video game numbers, it means that we can't continue to judge a defense solely by the number of points they allow or the number of yards they give up. Those numbers will naturally be higher than we're used to. Instead, we need to look for which offensive lines are truly weak points and which defenses will either be blitz-heavy or get consistent pressure with their pass rush. These are all incredibly important pieces of information in determining which defenses to play in any given week.

We can also identify the offenses that we want to attack based on current performance. Injuries can always change this, but, for right now, defenses going up against the Jets, Broncos, Patriots, Giants, Cowboys, Bengals, and Washington Football team have scored considerably more points on average than defenses facing other offenses. Now, attacking these teams doesn't always work, and you don't want to elevate a bad defense too far just because they get one of those teams; however, it is a key factor to keep in mind when making your decision.

Starting the right defense every week can be a difference-maker, so remember to check back here during the week as I will make updates once we get more information on some of these injuries and also get a better sense of the weather for the game.

Week 10 Defenses To Start & Stream: Tiers & Rankings

These rankings are from before the Monday Night Football game and will be adjusted if needed on Tuesday.

Below are my Week 10 defense tiers and rankings, or which defenses to stream, start and target off the waiver wire for Week 10 of the NFL and fantasy football season. Our weekly tiered defense rankings are a guide to making waiver wire pickups to improve your lineups, and to decide which defenses to start, sit, target, avoid or stream for Week 10. I've broken out our defense rankings into tiers with analysis on each matchup. Some of these Week 10 defenses have good matchups and are not widely-owned, representing fantasy scoring opportunities if they are available on your league's waiver wire for a Week 10 pickup or add.

Returning for this year: Confidence Ratings (out of 15) - Since every league's DST scoring is different, projections don't always make a ton of sense. The confidence rating, which Bill Dubiel started last year, is a guideline for how much more I like one team over another instead of a straight point projection. A zero means "do not start," then the confidence rises from there. I take a lot of factors into account: opponent injuries, home-field advantage, weather (which will be updated during the week), etc. We still have only one game of in-season data to work with, so this week's rankings weigh schedule and personnel heavier than they will down the line.

Typically the top three tiers will be DSTs you should target, with Tier 4 being options in deep leagues and Tier 5 being desperation plays or good defenses in horrendous matchups.

Tier 1 Defenses

The Ravens defense has been among the cream of the crop all year long. They're 9th in pressure rate, 6th in sacks, 9th in drives ending in an offensive turnover, and 2nd in drives ending in an offensive score. Now they get to take on a weak Patriots offense that's 27th in drives ending in an offensive score and dead last in drives ending in an offensive turnover. While Cam Newton's mobility has kept them in the middle of the pack in terms of sacks allowed, I can't see them putting up too many points here, and I think the Ravens should easily be able to secure a few turnovers.

The Steelers disappointed, relatively speaking, with a mediocre performance against a bad Cowboys offense on Sunday. However, they still finished as the 8th-best fantasy defense. Now they get to take on a Bengals team that allows the fourth-most points on average to opposing fantasy defenses. Cincinnati is 31st in sacks allowed and 18th in drives ending in an offensive turnover. Joe Burrow has been good, and Joe Mixon is likely to be back from injury, but this remains an elite Steelers defense. They lead the league in pressure rate and sacks and are third in quarterback hurry percentage and fourth in blitz rate. This is going to be a major test for a rookie quarterback in reading schemes and blitzers, and I think they'll come out strong after a down week and force a few mistakes from Burrow.

The Eagles come off the bye with two weeks to prepare for a bad Giants offense. That should be a recipe for great defensive success. On the year, the Eagles are 6th in pressure rate and 7th in quarterback knockdown percentage, which means they're bringing consistent pressure. The Giants are 30th in sacks allowed, which means they're giving up consistent pressure. The Eagles may not have had much success this year in causing turnovers, but the Giants are ranked 30th in offensive drives ending in a turnover with Daniel Jones seeming to love making a boneheaded mistake or two each game. That should set the Eagles up for a few turnover opportunities, especially with the offense likely to put up points behind a return from Miles Sanders and Alshon Jeffrey, and Jalen Reagor being two weeks healthier than the last time we saw him.

Here is where the rankings can get tricky. There are a few teams that could claim the 4th spot, not because of a plethora of dominant options but because I see a bunch of teams that should really be ranked about 7th or 8th in a normal week. For now, I like New Orleans here. As I mentioned above, the Saints Defense came to play against a formidable Bucs offense. It was far-and-away the best this defense has looked all year. Despite the slow start, this is a team that is 12th in pressure rate, 8th in sacks, and 9th in yards per play allowed. However, they are 25th in drives ending in an offensive score and 28th in drives ending in an offensive turnover, so their upside has been capped. This may be going out on a limb after only one good game, but I'm going to bank on a repeat performance against a 49ers offense that will still likely be without Raheem Mostert and Deebo Samuel, on top of the long-term injuries to Jimmy Garoppolo and George Kittle. Their offensive line is 23rd in sacks allowed, and I don't see Nick Mullens being able to move the ball consistently against this unit, which makes me confident in New Orleans to keep the defensive momentum going.

Tier 2 Defenses

They didn't perform quite how I expected against the Giants on Sunday, but if Kenny Golladay is out for another week with a hip injury, it's possible that this Lions offense is not much better than the one the Giants field. They aren't turning the ball over a ton, but they are 21st in sacks allowed and 18th in yards per play. Meanwhile, the Washington defensive line is a force. They are 5th in pressure rate, 4th in sacks, and 11th in quarterback hurry rate. As a whole, the defense is 9th in allowing drives that ending in offensive points scored and 15th in drives that end in an offensive turnover, so it's a solid unit going against a potentially banged-up and low-scoring offense.

Tampa Bay continues the trend of defenses I'd feel more comfortable ranking near the back-half of the top-10. However, this is a unit that has been relatively dominant all season, apart from getting owned in both primetime games. They are 2nd in pressure rate, 2nd in sacks, and 4th in quarterback knockdown rate, which will be a tough test for a Panthers offensive line that is 16th in sacks allowed. The Bucs are also 5th in the league in drives ending in offensive points and 10th in the league in drives ending in an offensive turnover, so they typically have a relatively safe floor. With Christian McCaffrey banged up again and potentially missing this week, the Bucs look to be in a prime spot to get their defense back on track.

At some point, we have to stop counting out the Miami defense. Despite ranking just 15th in pressure rate and 13th in sacks, they continue to put up strong fantasy defensive showings. A large part of that is that they have the 3rd-highest blitz rate in the league, which causes confusion without, seemingly, creating a ton of pressure. The Dolphins are 7th-best in defensive drives ending in an offensive turnover and best in the league in drives ending in an offensive score. With Justin Jackson banged up, the Chargers may need to turn to Kalen Ballage to take the help the offense move the ball against his old team, which doesn't inspire a ton of confidence. That could put even more pressure on rookie quarterback Justin Herbert against an opportunistic defense that is 8th in passing touchdowns allowed and has scored three touchdowns in the last two games. I don't expect the Dolphins to keep this Chargers offense held in check, but I think they can cause enough confusion with their blitzing and have shown that they don't let those opportunities go to waste.

Yes, the Eagles' skill positions are getting healthy, but there are still more than a few concerns about their offensive line, and the Giants defense is good enough to capitalize. The Eagles are dead last in sacks allowed despite already having their bye, which could pose a problem against a Giants defense that is 14th in pressure rate, tied for 8th in sacks, and 8th in quarterback knockdown rate. Even though the Giants love to turn the ball over, the Eagles are actually just as bad, ranking 29th in offensive drives ending in a turnover. There's a strong likelihood that this game is just ugly with both teams trying to give the other team ample opportunities to win it. You may not like it, but I think the ceilings are high for both defenses.

Tier 3 Defenses

The Titans have been underperforming all year, but perhaps the get-right cure was a matchup against the Chicago Bears. The Titans allowed 17 points, sacked Foles three times, forced two fumbles, and scored a defensive touchdown en route to an easy victory. I don't expect things to be much harder on Thursday night against a Colts offense that will likely be without T.Y. Hilton again. The Titans are most vulnerable through the air, but the Colts have thrown only one touchdown pass to a wide receiver this year, and it went to Zach Pascal. Their offensive line has allowed the fewest sacks in the league, so I don't expect the Titans to get much pressure, but this game should be incredibly low-scoring, which gives Tennessee a safe floor and they force turnovers on drives at the 8th-highest rate, so there's always a chance for a few more takeaways and another defensive touchdown. At least we know that Philip Rivers won't do much to stop a takeaway going the other direction. 

Green Bay underwhelmed on Thursday against a depleted San Francisco team, but they'll get another chance against a Jaguars offense that will be without Gardner Minshew and also likely Laviska Shenault Jr. The Jaguars are 26th in sacks allowed, 23rd in offensive drives ending in a score, and 26th in offensive drives ending in a turnover. With D. J. Chark likely getting shadow coverage from Jaire Alexander, it will make life hard for sixth-round rookie Jake Luton. He moved the ball well against Houston, and this Packers defense gets poor pressure, but they do generate more pressure than the Texans and are slightly better at creating turnovers. I don't think the Packers defensive unit is particularly strong, but I expect Aaron Rodgers and company to score at will against this Jaguars Defense, which will force Luton into catch-up mode and lead to some sacks and turnovers.

The Cleveland Browns come off the bye with a showdown against a Houston Texans team that may be without David Johnson. Now, Johnson wasn't immensely effective this season, but he's still an upgrade over Duke Johnson, who failed to do much against a weak Jaguars defense this past Sunday. The Texans are a potent offense, but they are also 24th in sacks allowed, so there is a chance for the Browns to get in the backfield and make some plays. The problem for the Browns is that they haven't done that with enough regularity this season as they are just 14th in sacks and 22nd in pressure rate. The Browns best defensive attribute is that they are 2nd in defensive drives ending in an offensive turnover, but the Texans are 11th-best in the league in offensive drives ending in a turnover, so it's not really a weakness that the Browns can pick on. In the end, I think the Browns will be playable on the back of a couple of sacks and maybe a turnover, but there should be a fair amount of point scored in this game as well, which will mean that might not be enough for a top-10 finish.

This may be the life-long Bills fan in me, but I can't help but think the Bills are going to follow-up that huge win with a bit of a letdown on the road, going across the country against a talented Arizona team. While Josh Allen has limited the stupid mistakes this year, the Bills are 24th in drives ending in an offensive turnover, so they will give the Cardinals a chance to make a play. However, what makes me more bullish on the Cardinals defense is the injuries along the Bills' offensive line. Starting center Mitch Morse may miss another week with a concussion, left guard Cody Ford got carted off with an ankle injury, and right guard Brian Winters was also hurt during the game. If the Bills are down two or more starters, that could be problematic against a Cardinals team that is 12th in pressure rate, 9th in sacks, and 5th in blitz rate. The Seahawks blitzed the Bills close to 60% of the time, en route to sacking Allen seven times, so I expect the Cardinals, who are 5th in the league in blitz rate, to dial-up more than a few blitzes of their own.

The Tennessee Titans gained only 228 yards of offense against a tough Bears Defense on Sunday. Had it not been for a defensive touchdown, they also would have only scored 17 points. The lack of firepower should make a strong Colts defense even more appealing, but I simply think this will be a low-scoring and ugly game. The Colts are 6th in the league in pressure rate but 29th in blitz rate, which means they generate pressure simply from their defensive line. That could be hard to do against a Titans team that is 9th in sacks allowed. However, the Colts are also 5th in defensive drives ending in an offensive turnover, so there are some other avenues to fantasy points for the Colts.

As I mentioned above, I think the Bills may be in for a letdown. But even if that isn't the case, this game is liable to produce far less fantasy goodness for the defense primarily because the Cardinals are 6th in the league in sacks allowed, much better than the Seahawks, which will limit the Bills' ability to get into the backfield despite being 7th in the league in sacks. An area where the Bills could swing some extra points is in the turnover department. They were able to force four turnovers against the Seahawks on Sunday and are currently 5th in the league in turnovers, which could open up some opportunities against a Cardinals offense that is 19th in the league in drives ending in an offensive turnover. If Kenyan Drake is out for another week, I expect the Cardinals to go to the air a fair bit after Chase Edmonds fell flat in a plus match-up against Miami, which could mean more opportunities for the Bills to create turnovers.

The Rams have been a near-elite defense for much of the year. They are 5th in sacks, 3rd in drives ending in an offensive score, and best in the league in yards allowed per play. They will be a stiff test for Russell Wilson and the Seahawks on Sunday. As we saw this week against the Bills, this Seahawks offensive line can be very giving. They are 25th in sacks allowed and the pressure has led to Wilson being 8th in the league in interceptions thrown. The Seahawks may have Chris Carson back, which will make them less pass-happy, but this is a pass-first offense behind a mediocre offensive line. The Bills were able to put up a top-5 defensive performance despite giving up 34 points, so there's no reason to think that a Rams defense with Jalen Ramsey and Aaron Donald can't do the same thing.

Tier 4 Defenses

The Bears defense is a great real-life unit but doesn't get enough sacks or turnovers to make them a high-performing fantasy unit. Minnesota has been keeping Kirk Cousins upright and running the ball a lot, so I don't see the Bears having much upside in this game.

The Broncos are third in the league in pressure rate and tied for 8th in sacks, so they intrigue me even with a tough match-up against the Raiders. The Raiders offense is 18th in offensive possessions ending in a turnover and 12th in sacks allowed, but 2nd in the league in drives ending in an offensive score so they're not typically a team we want to pick on.

If David Montgomery is out, I'm a little bit more intrigued by the Vikings defense against a poor Bears offense.

Tier 5 Defenses

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