Fantasy Football Breakouts, Busts, and Locks - Washington Commanders 2023 Outlook

With just a few weeks to go until the NFL's regular season begins, it's important to consider all options from all teams in upcoming fantasy drafts. Teams such as the Washington Commanders aren't flashy and don't get many fantasy managers excited, but there are a handful of players on this roster with real fantasy football intrigue. Of course, there are also guys set to underwhelm.

Every player's outlook should be analyzed based on their ADPs (average draft position) and potential ceilings and floors, so that's what we'll discuss in this Washington Commanders offensive preview.

In this article, we'll dive into one lock to be a top-24 positional scorer, one breakout candidate, and one potential bust for the 2023 Commanders. Let's dive in!

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Fantasy Football Lock - Terry McLaurin

Despite playing with 10 starting quarterbacks including Case Keenum, Dwayne Haskins, Colt McCoy, Alex Smith, Kyle Allen, Taylor Heinicke, Garrett Gilbert, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Carson Wentz, and Sam Howell -- Terry McLaurin has been Mr. Consistency throughout his four-year NFL career. Over the last three seasons in particular, he has averaged 80.4 receptions, 1,120.6 yards, and 4.7 touchdowns.

Naturally, his touchdown figure hasn't been impressive because of the overall ineffectiveness of the Washington offense during his tenure. However, that hasn't stopped him from posting at least 1,000 yards and finishing as the WR14, WR25, and WR20 overall in his last three campaigns (PPR).

While he still has question marks at quarterback in 2023, he's proven he can produce, and the Commanders have the third-toughest schedule in the NFC. The team has its usual two matchups with the Philadelphia Eagles, Dallas Cowboys, and New York Giants, but also has to play the Seattle Seahawks, Buffalo Bills, New York Jets, Miami Dolphins, and San Francisco 49ers. The fierce schedule sets up Washington to be playing from behind for much of the season, meaning more passing volume.

As an added bonus, Jacoby Brissett will become the team's starter if Howell underperforms or gets injured. Last season, Brissett proved he could support multiple fantasy pass-catchers and helped Amari Cooper post a WR10 season.

At McLaurin's WR24 ADP (FFPC), it's hard to imagine him disappointing at cost. His floor is likely in the WR30 range, but he's more likely to be a high-end WR2 than a complete bust. He is the shining star for Washington in terms of fantasy football value.

Fantasy Football Breakout - Antonio Gibson

Antonio Gibson endured a disappointing fantasy football season last year. He finished as the RB31 in half-PPR formats with 899 total yards and five touchdowns. However, considering his previous accomplishments as the RB12 in his rookie year and RB10 in his sophomore year, his career as a fantasy-relevant running back is not over.

J.D. McKissic is finally no longer in Gibson's way when it comes to receiving work, so he should have a tight grip on the passing-down role in 2023. Brian Robinson will begin the season as the early down grinder, but again, the Commanders should face a ton of negative game scripts in 2023. Gibson could be Howell's best friend in the check-down game.

While Gibson regressed as a fantasy scorer last season, he set career highs in receptions (46), and targets (58). According to PlayerProfiler.com data, he finished among the top-12 running backs in target share (12%), yards per reception (7.7), yards per route run (1.6), and catch rate (79.3%).

Ultimately, Gibson is the more explosive runner and receiver of the Commanders' two backs and the arrival of former Kansas City Chiefs offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy gives him a clean slate. It's also worth noting he's not simply a small satellite back. He's 6'2" and 220 pounds with tackle-breaking ability.

The fourth-year running back might never finish as a fantasy RB1 again, but his price makes him worth drafting. He's going off the board around the RB34 spot, meaning he has plenty of margin for error to pay off at cost. If the Commanders surprisingly see a significant offensive ascension, he could also have additional touchdown upside.

Honorable Mention: Sam Howell - Howell's 2023 fantasy outlook is a question mark, but his supporting cast of Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson, Curtis Samuel, Antonio Gibson, and Logan Thomas is underrated among offensive skill player groups in the NFL. He has mobility too, so he's an intriguing fantasy draft target at his QB26 ADP.

Fantasy Football Bust - Brian Robinson

Brian Robinson had an amazing comeback story last season, playing in an NFL game just under 50 days after being shot in the knee and glute. The Alabama product recently said he never felt healthy during his rookie campaign, which can explain some of his lackluster efficiency stats.

However, he seems to be locked into the team's early down role as a between-the-tackles grinder. Simply put, he's going to see the least-valuable touches for running back fantasy production. While he may be implemented as the primary goal-line rusher, that likely won't yield big-time upside in the Commanders' offense.

Last season, Washington ranked fourth in run plays per game (31.6). Given its weak defense and scary schedule along with the addition of Bieniemy, its offensive identity projects to be more pass-centric. That doesn't bode well for Robinson, who posted a 3.5% target share last season as he totaled just nine receptions on 12 targets in 12 games played.

As a rusher, his true yards per carry (3.8) ranked 56th among qualified running backs and he posted just a 2.9% breakaway run rate (46th). If the 228-pounder was on a great offense in the goal line role like Jamaal Williams was last year, his outlook would be much different. Given the likelihood that Washington will be a bottom-10 NFL offense, he has very little upside as his RB35 cost.

Honorable Mention: Jahan Dotson - The Penn State product was impressive last season, scoring seven touchdowns on a bottom-12 passing offense. However, his touchdown rate seems unsustainable considering he saw just eight red zone targets overall. Among wideouts in 2022, he ranked 70th in targets, 76th in target share, and 60th in yards per route run. His seven end zone trips allowed him to finish in the top 40 at the position, so regression could be due at his WR37 ADP.

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