Wide Receiver Waiver Wire Heroes: Sustainable Production or Fools' Gold?

September 28, 2023

Uncover fantasy football's emerging stars like Tank Dell and Tutu Atwell. These waiver wire wonders are making an impact, but are they here to stay?

Three weeks into the season, we've seen some remarkable waiver wire pickups that have become hot commodities in all fantasy leagues. Players like Tank Dell, Tutu Atwell, Adam Thielen, Romeo Doubs, and Marvin Mims have surged into the top 35 among wide receivers, surprising many.

While injuries and fluke performances can inflate their fantasy value in the short term, it's worth considering whether some of these players were genuinely undervalued by fantasy analysts. To determine their long-term potential, evaluate factors like their role in their offenses, target consistency, and upcoming schedules.

In this ever-evolving fantasy football landscape, hidden gems can either solidify their stardom or regress. As the season progresses, let's closely examine these rising stars to see if any have what it takes to shine throughout the year.

Tank Dell, Houston Texans

The rookie from the University of Houston has been an exciting addition to the Texans' youth movement. Fresh from a remarkable performance against the Jaguars, where he tallied five catches, 145 yards, and one touchdown, Tank Dell currently ranks fifth in pass snaps and third in targets on the team, trailing only Robert Woods and Nico Collins.

Dell boasts an impressive average of 2.61 yards per route run, albeit partly due to some exceptionally long plays. He primarily serves as a deep threat on the outside but has also seen action in the slot for 26.5% of his snaps.

Dell has quickly developed chemistry with quarterback C.J. Stroud, connecting for receptions of over twenty yards in consecutive games. Despite veteran Robert Woods leading the team in pass snaps and slot usage, Dell and Collins, both younger players, have proven more effective. Dell accounts for 27.01% of his team's air yards, slightly ahead of Woods with 26.78%, despite playing fewer snaps.

The Texans, often playing from behind, currently rank eighth in pass rate this year. Their pass rate over expected stands at -2.1%, suggesting they could potentially increase their passing volume. They favor 11 personnel (1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WR), using it 57% of the time, ranking them tenth in the NFL. This means there will be ample opportunities for Dell in the future.

With Dell's impressive performance in the first three games, where he ranks as WR13, and a favorable situation, he seems poised to continue trending upwards throughout the season.

Outlook: Reliable option all year

Tutu Atwell, Los Angeles Rams

In the absence of Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua and Tutu Atwell have stepped up and delivered impressive performances in the first three weeks. Currently, Atwell is ranked as WR14, sharing the second-highest number of pass snaps with tight end Tyler Higbee and ranking second on the team in targets.

He's maintained an average of 1.88 yards per route run with a respectable 13-yard average depth of target. Despite receiving fourteen fewer targets than Nacua, Atwell has commanded a greater share of the team's air yards due to his ability to stretch the defense downfield.

Coach Sean McVay has expressed hope that Kupp will return from IR in week five, casting some uncertainty on Atwell's future effectiveness. It's likely that Kupp will reassume a significant portion of the targets, potentially leaving fewer opportunities for others. However, there are some positive factors to consider.

The Rams have a pass-heavy offense, throwing the ball 66% of the time, which ranks seventh in the NFL. Their pass rate over expected is 5.8%, indicating their willingness to throw even more. Additionally, they favor 11 personnel formations 86% of the time, ranking second in the NFL, which suggests that Atwell's snap count shouldn't see a significant decrease. Given his effectiveness as a downfield threat, he could still be a valuable asset in that role.

On the other hand, Nacua may experience a more pronounced fantasy impact with Kupp's return, as Kupp is likely to resume his role as the primary target in the offense.

Outlook: Borderline flex option when Kupp returns

Adam Thielen, Carolina Panthers

Currently sitting at WR9 in PPR formats, Adam Thielen has seamlessly transitioned to his new team in Carolina, proving doubters wrong after his move from Minnesota. At 33 years old, he went overlooked and often undrafted in many leagues this season, but through three games, he's demonstrated that he's still a reliable fantasy asset.

Thielen not only leads the team in pass snaps by a significant margin but also tops the charts in targets. His closest competitor in targets is Miles Sanders, underscoring his command of the receiver room. While he may not lead the team in air yards percentage, Thielen is poised to become the go-to option for quarterbacks, particularly in short-yardage and red zone situations.

While his standout performance thus far came with Andy Dalton at quarterback, the Panthers provide an enticing fantasy environment for a receiver. They are tied for second in pass rate, with a 70% pass rate, and their pass rate over expected is -1.7%, indicating a strong inclination to throw or a necessity to do so.

Additionally, they heavily rely on 11 personnel, employing it more than any other NFL team at 90%, guaranteeing ample playing time for Thielen. Although a portion of Thielen's value depends on the development of Bryce Young, he's well-positioned to receive the necessary snaps and targets to maintain his fantasy relevance throughout the season.

Outlook: Reliable option all year

Romeo Doubs

With former second-round pick Christian Watson absent at the start of the season, Romeo Doubs has capitalized on the opportunity and assumed the role of the primary target for his team. Doubs has primarily operated on the outside, with 82.2% of his snaps taking place in that position. Currently ranked as WR28, he has delivered two solid performances, each yielding 18 fantasy points. Doubs is averaging 1.54 yards per route run and commands an impressive 25.53% of the team's air yards.

His average depth of target of 13.5 yards indicates his effectiveness as a deep threat and target for quarterback Jordan Love downfield and over the middle. The impending return of Watson is likely to impact the passing game, but Doubs should still see significant playing time on the outside.

The Packers heavily employ 11 personnel, doing so 61% of the time, ranking eighth in the league. This leaves opportunities for Doubs to share snaps with Watson and Jayden Reed.

However, it's essential to note that the Packers rank only 19th in pass rate this year and have been involved in slower, lower-scoring games to start the season. While Doubs will continue to have ample opportunities to remain fantasy relevant, he may not be a "set and forget" option every week, as his production could vary based on game flow and the presence of other receiving options.

Outlook: Borderline flex when Watson returns

Marvin Mims Jr., Denver Broncos

The rookie hailing from Oklahoma has made quite a splash in his first three games, showcasing explosive plays with receptions of 35 or more yards in two out of three contests. In his second game, he put up eye-popping numbers like Randy Moss's famous Thanksgiving game, securing both of his targets for 113 yards and a touchdown. Marvin Mims saw a surge in targets in his most recent outing, hauling in three receptions out of five for a total of 73 yards.

However, despite his promising performances, Mims currently ranks only eighth among Broncos receivers in pass snaps. He trails behind Lil'Jordan Humphrey and Brandon Johnson, with Johnson still maintaining a lead of 13 more pass snaps than Mims.

The Broncos have adopted a pass-heavy approach, throwing the ball 65% of the time. This inclination is partly due to their 0-3 record, which has often left them playing catch-up in games. Nonetheless, a potential concern for Mims moving forward is that the team utilizes 11 personnel formations only 47% of the time. This means fewer opportunities for receivers beyond Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy, limiting Mims' chances to make an impact.

While Marvin Mims possesses exciting talent and holds value in dynasty leagues, he may not be a dependable option in redraft formats at the moment, given the competition for targets and the team's offensive tendencies.

Outlook: Stash for now

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