TAP FOR 6 MONTHS OF PREMIUM FREE 💰
X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball Part 8: Batted Ball Distribution for Pitchers

The league average batted ball distribution in 2015 was 20.9% liners, 45.3% grounders and 33.8% flies. Last time, we took a brief look at how pitchers may specialize in either grounders or fly balls. Fly ball pitchers have a BABIP advantage over their ground ball-inducing counterparts, since fly balls (.129 BABIP in 2015) consistently have lower BABIPs than worm killers (.236). Yet most fantasy owners prefer to roster ground ball pitchers, to the point that GB% is frequently cited as a peripheral stat to determine fantasy viability.

The reason for this is slugging percentage. Fly balls had a collective .666 slugging percentage in 2015 despite the lower BABIP, while grounders had just a .255 SLG. As Giancarlo Stanton hits more homers than most in part by elevating the ball more frequently, fly ball pitchers are liable to give more up by allowing more batted balls into the air. Fantasy owners can live with the odd single through the infield if it means fewer homers allowed.

This line of thinking makes intuitive sense, but I feel it may be overstated at times. Good fly ball pitchers tend to post HR/FB rates a little better than the 10% league average, somewhat limiting the long balls they allow. Many fantasy owners also already know that ballparks play a big role in determining HR allowed. If a park is going to limit the negative consequences, fantasy owners may reap the benefits of a lower WHIP by investing in a pitcher that makes his living in the air. By contrast, ground ball specialists are less likely to benefit from a park's pitching friendly dimensions. Even if a homer is struck, the fly ball guy has a greater probability of it being a solo shot as opposed to a crooked number on the board.

To be clear, pitchers in homer happy locations such as Milwaukee's Miller Park, Yankee Stadium and The Cell in Chicago should absolutely be ground ball guys if they are rostered in fantasy. It is also a useful metric to look at when trying to determine if a given pitcher should be active for a road start at these locations. Still, a high GB% alone should not make a guy fantasy relevant.

A specialty in either grounders or flies may allow a pitcher to maximize the team behind him and beat FIP. For example, pitcher Chris Young posted a 3.06 ERA in 123.1 IP last season despite a FIP of 4.52 and an xFIP of 5.33. Normally, we would label him a clear candidate for painful regression. Young is an extreme flyball pitcher (57.9% FB%), and he does a good job limiting liners (16.6% LD%, 18.5% career) and inducing popups (14.8% IFFB%, 15.2% career). Still, the .209 BABIP he allowed seems too low. Beating the league BABIP by nearly 100 points is not usually sustainable.

Yet Young has two sustainable advantages that FIP doesn't know about. First, Kauffman Stadium is a terrible place for power hitting, helping Young compile a 7.7% HR/FB. His career mark is 8.1%, buoyed by past home addresses like San Diego's Petco Park, New York's Citi Field and Seattle's Safeco Field before any of them moved their fences in. Second, he is pitching in front of a team that simply does not allow fly balls to drop.

Kansas City left fielder Alex Gordon produced 7 DRS last season despite losing significant time to injury. His last healthy season produced an elite 27 DRS in 2014. Center fielder Lorenzo Cain and his 18 DRS are also back in the fold. Right field was something of a mess despite the Royals' title, but Jarrod Dyson figures to secure the lion's share of the playing time in 2016. He was worth 11 DRS in just 560.2 defensive IP in 2015, and could well break 20 with regular work.

Young's extreme fly ball tendencies maximize his ability to use these guys to suppress his BABIP, while his home park helps to ensure that most fly balls remain in play. As long as he's a Royal, Young should be able to post above average ERA and WHIP numbers. The lack of strikeouts hinders his overall fantasy value, but he's an acceptable end game pick in deep or AL Only formats.

While Young is an extreme example, any team with elite infielders or outfielders will help a specialist beat FIP. Research also indicates that extreme pitchers gain a small platoon advantage against like bats, so GB pitcher vs. GB hitter favors the pitcher. The effect isn't quite as large as the more traditional handedness platoon split, and is tough to use in weekly formats or daily leagues that cap transactions. Still, it can be useful for DFS and may be cited as a reason to avoid pitchers with an average batted ball distribution.

To conclude, both ground ball and fly ball specialists have their uses in fantasy. Groundballers offer lower slugging percentages against and can take full advantage of an elite defensive infield. Flyballers offer superior WHIP and make the best use of an elite defensive outfield. Both gain a minor platoon advantage against hitters that share their specialization, an advantage never enjoyed by arms with no extreme tendency. Next time, we'll look at a tool that can forecast and confirm spikes in everything from GB% to K%: PITCHf/x.

 

MLB & Fantasy Baseball Chat Room

[iflychat_embed id="c-12" hide_user_list="yes" hide_popup_chat="no" height="400px"]

 




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Brandon Woodruff

Looking to Put Injury Woes Behind Him in 2026
Lawrence Butler

Can Lawrence Butler Bounce Back from Underwhelming 2025 Campaign?
Yasiel Puig

Found Guilty of Obstruction of Justice, Lying to Officials
Travis Kelce

Undecided on Playing Future, Leaning Towards Returning in 2026?
Kristaps Porzingis

Ruled Out Saturday Against Lakers
Pelle Larsson

Exits Loss Early with Elbow Injury
Yanic Konan Niederhauser

Leaves Friday's Game with Illness
Josh Hart

Leaves Friday's Blowout with Ankle Concern
De'Andre Hunter

Sidelined Midgame by Eye Injury
Shaedon Sharpe

Exits Friday with Calf Injury
Anthony Davis

Expected to Miss Remainder of Season
Brandon Nimmo

Carries High-Floor Profile into 2026
Trevor Story

Can Trevor Story Remain a Consistent Fantasy Option?
Spencer Strider

Carries High Risk Entering 2026
Drake Baldwin

Poised for More Productive Year 2?
Ben Rice

Could See More Time as Catcher Following Free-Agent Addition
Clarke Schmidt

Still Targeting Second-Half Return
Anthony Volpe

Unlikely to Return Until May?
Brett Wisely

Designated for Assignment by Rays
Mike Vasil

to Compete for Starting Rotation Spot
San Diego Padres

Padres Seeking Another Hitter, Starting Pitcher
Miguel Mendez

Could be on the Big-League Radar in 2026
Konnor Griffin

Can Konnor Griffin Win Shortstop Job in Pittsburgh?
Brandon Sproat

Should be in Mix for Brewers Rotation Spot
Dylan Ross

Pushing for Bullpen Role at MLB Level
Ben Rice

to Lose Playing Time With Veteran First Baseman Returning?
Paul Goldschmidt

Returning to Yankees on One-Year Deal
OG Anunoby

Won't Play on Friday
Tobias Harris

is Cleared for Friday's Game
Jalen Duren

is Ruled Out for Friday's Game
Gary Harris

is Returning on Friday
Jared McCain

Expected to Make Team Debut on Saturday
Nate Garkow

Receives Invitation to Spring Training
Isaiah Hartenstein

is Ready for Saturday's Game
Chet Holmgren

is Cleared for Saturday's Game
Emiliano Teodo

Could be Bullpen Asset for Rangers
Julius Randle

Cleared to Play Friday
Bobby Portis

is Available for Friday's Game
Josh Hart

Available Against Pistons
Karl-Anthony Towns

Ruled Out Friday
Josh Giddey

Won't Play Saturday
Cameron Johnson

Upgraded to Questionable
Nikola Jokić

Nikola Jokic Considered Questionable for Saturday
CFB

Rutgers Hiring South Dakota Head Coach Travis Johansen as Defensive Coordinator
Vinicius Oliveira

Looks For His Seventh Consecutive Win
Mario Bautista

A Favorite At UFC Vegas 113
Kyoji Horiguchi

Set For UFC Vegas 113 Co-Main Event
Amir Albazi

Looks To Bounce Back
Rizvan Kuniev

Looks For His First UFC Win
Jailton Almeida

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Marc-Andre Barriault

In Dire Need Of Victory
Michal Oleksiejczuk

Looks For His Third Win In A Row
Michael Penix Jr.

Says he's Ahead of Schedule After Knee Surgery
Cleveland Browns

Jim Schwartz Resigns as Browns Defensive Coordinator
Malik Nabers

Says his Rehab has Been "Phenomenal"
CFB

Oklahoma Hiring Former NFL Defensive Lineman DeShawn Williams to Analyst Role
CFB

Jahmal Edrine Charged with Sexual Assault, No Longer Enrolled at Virginia
Jakob Chychrun

Makes Big Impact in Thursday's Win
Brandon Bussi

Shuts Out Rangers With 16 Saves
Anze Kopitar

Reaches 1,300 Career Points
Mark Stone

Becomes First Vegas Player With 100 Multi-Point Games
Daniil Tarasov

Injured in Battle of Florida
Andrei Kuzmenko

Hurt Versus Vegas
John Carlson

Suffers Lower-Body Injury
Matthew Stafford

Named 2025 NFL MVP, Will Return in 2026
Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Takes Home Offensive Player of the Year Honors
Christian McCaffrey

Named Comeback Player of the Year
Tetairoa McMillan

Named Offensive Rookie of the Year
Myles Garrett

Unanimously Wins Defensive Player of the Year Award
Brad Marchand

Evan Rodrigues Among Panthers Absentees Thursday
Calum Ritchie

Rejoins Islanders Lineup as Second-Line Center
Zach Benson

Sits Out Second Straight Game
Pierre-Luc Dubois

Available Against Predators
Rickard Rakell

Out Thursday
Brayden Point

Won't Play in Olympics
Jonathan Huberdeau

to Have Season-Ending Hip Surgery
CFB

Houston, Vanderbilt, Tennessee Land Top-Three QBs in 2026 Class
Joe Mixon

Committed to Playing in 2026
CFB

Michigan Signs Top-15 Recruiting Class Despite Coaching Change
CFB

USC Finishes with No. 1 Signing Class in 2026
Valeri Nichushkin

Sets Up Three Goals Wednesday
CFB

Trinidad Chambliss Denied Medical Redshirt Waiver By NCAA
Ryan O'Reilly

Delivers Three Assists in Overtime Loss
Matt Boldy

Records Historically Fast Hat Trick Wednesday
Jet Greaves

Gives Blue Jackets Second Straight Shutout
Wyatt Kaiser

Hurt Against Blue Jackets
Sandis Vilmanis

Injured in Wednesday's Win
Jack Hughes

Out Thursday
CFB

Sam Leavitt to be Limited In Spring Practice
Jordan Love

Avoids Offseason Surgery
Matt Fitzpatrick

Back in Action at WM Phoenix Open
Sahith Theegala

Riding Hot Start Into WM Phoenix Open
J.J. Spaun

Looks to Regain Form at WM Phoenix Open
Viktor Hovland

a Volatile Option at WM Phoenix Open
Rasmus Hojgaard

Aims to Build on Solid Start to 2026
Brian Harman

Looks to Find Form at WM Phoenix Open
Daniel Berger

Has the Tools to Go One Step Higher at Scottsdale
Max Greyserman

Searching for Consistency at WM Phoenix Open
Jake Knapp

Wants Revenge at WM Phoenix Open
CFB

Joey Aguilar Granted Temporary Restraining Order Against NCAA
Joel Dahmen

Carrying Momentum Into WM Phoenix Open
Corey Conners

Unlikely to Contend at Scottsdale
Sepp Straka

Seeks a Rebound After The American Express
Jordan Spieth

Healthy Heading to WM Phoenix Open
Keith Mitchell

Building Momentum for Event in Scottsdale
Tom Hoge

The Tom Hoge Roller Coaster Heads to Scottsdale for WM Phoenix Open
Rickie Fowler

Worth a Look at WM Phoenix Open
Xander Schauffele

Making Second Appearance at Phoenix Open
Collin Morikawa

Needs a Bounce-Back at Waste Management Phoenix Open
Hideki Matsuyama

Has a Shot to Challenge at the Waste Management Phoenix Open
Max Homa

Playing Well Heading to Waste Management Phoenix Open
Ben Griffin

Will Need to Find Approach Game to Compete in Phoenix
Michael Penix Jr.

Matt Ryan Not Committing to Michael Penix Jr. as the Starting QB
NASCAR

Billy Horschel Unlikely to Right the Ship in Phoenix
Matthew Stafford

Doesn't Need Offseason Back Surgery
CFB

Joey Aguilar Files New Lawsuit Against NCAA Seeking Sixth Year of Eligibility
Davante Adams

Expected to Return to Rams in 2026
Los Angeles Rams

Rams Sign Sean McVay, Les Snead to Contract Extensions
Diego Lopes

Outclassed At UFC 325
Alexander Volkanovski

Dominates Diego Lopes
Dan Hooker

Stopped In The Second Round
Benoît Saint Denis

Benoit Saint Denis Extends His Win Streak
Rafael Fiziev

Suffers Second-Round TKO Loss
MMA

Maurício Ruffy Gets Back In The Win Column
San Francisco 49ers

49ers Set to Name Raheem Morris Their Defensive Coordinator
Las Vegas Raiders

Raiders Close to Naming Klint Kubiak the Next Head Coach
Arizona Cardinals

Cardinals Finalizing Deal to Make Mike LaFleur the Next Head Coach
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF