👉 TAP TO SAVE 30% WITH CODE NEW
X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball Part 8: Batted Ball Distribution for Pitchers

The league average batted ball distribution in 2015 was 20.9% liners, 45.3% grounders and 33.8% flies. Last time, we took a brief look at how pitchers may specialize in either grounders or fly balls. Fly ball pitchers have a BABIP advantage over their ground ball-inducing counterparts, since fly balls (.129 BABIP in 2015) consistently have lower BABIPs than worm killers (.236). Yet most fantasy owners prefer to roster ground ball pitchers, to the point that GB% is frequently cited as a peripheral stat to determine fantasy viability.

The reason for this is slugging percentage. Fly balls had a collective .666 slugging percentage in 2015 despite the lower BABIP, while grounders had just a .255 SLG. As Giancarlo Stanton hits more homers than most in part by elevating the ball more frequently, fly ball pitchers are liable to give more up by allowing more batted balls into the air. Fantasy owners can live with the odd single through the infield if it means fewer homers allowed.

This line of thinking makes intuitive sense, but I feel it may be overstated at times. Good fly ball pitchers tend to post HR/FB rates a little better than the 10% league average, somewhat limiting the long balls they allow. Many fantasy owners also already know that ballparks play a big role in determining HR allowed. If a park is going to limit the negative consequences, fantasy owners may reap the benefits of a lower WHIP by investing in a pitcher that makes his living in the air. By contrast, ground ball specialists are less likely to benefit from a park's pitching friendly dimensions. Even if a homer is struck, the fly ball guy has a greater probability of it being a solo shot as opposed to a crooked number on the board.

To be clear, pitchers in homer happy locations such as Milwaukee's Miller Park, Yankee Stadium and The Cell in Chicago should absolutely be ground ball guys if they are rostered in fantasy. It is also a useful metric to look at when trying to determine if a given pitcher should be active for a road start at these locations. Still, a high GB% alone should not make a guy fantasy relevant.

A specialty in either grounders or flies may allow a pitcher to maximize the team behind him and beat FIP. For example, pitcher Chris Young posted a 3.06 ERA in 123.1 IP last season despite a FIP of 4.52 and an xFIP of 5.33. Normally, we would label him a clear candidate for painful regression. Young is an extreme flyball pitcher (57.9% FB%), and he does a good job limiting liners (16.6% LD%, 18.5% career) and inducing popups (14.8% IFFB%, 15.2% career). Still, the .209 BABIP he allowed seems too low. Beating the league BABIP by nearly 100 points is not usually sustainable.

Yet Young has two sustainable advantages that FIP doesn't know about. First, Kauffman Stadium is a terrible place for power hitting, helping Young compile a 7.7% HR/FB. His career mark is 8.1%, buoyed by past home addresses like San Diego's Petco Park, New York's Citi Field and Seattle's Safeco Field before any of them moved their fences in. Second, he is pitching in front of a team that simply does not allow fly balls to drop.

Kansas City left fielder Alex Gordon produced 7 DRS last season despite losing significant time to injury. His last healthy season produced an elite 27 DRS in 2014. Center fielder Lorenzo Cain and his 18 DRS are also back in the fold. Right field was something of a mess despite the Royals' title, but Jarrod Dyson figures to secure the lion's share of the playing time in 2016. He was worth 11 DRS in just 560.2 defensive IP in 2015, and could well break 20 with regular work.

Young's extreme fly ball tendencies maximize his ability to use these guys to suppress his BABIP, while his home park helps to ensure that most fly balls remain in play. As long as he's a Royal, Young should be able to post above average ERA and WHIP numbers. The lack of strikeouts hinders his overall fantasy value, but he's an acceptable end game pick in deep or AL Only formats.

While Young is an extreme example, any team with elite infielders or outfielders will help a specialist beat FIP. Research also indicates that extreme pitchers gain a small platoon advantage against like bats, so GB pitcher vs. GB hitter favors the pitcher. The effect isn't quite as large as the more traditional handedness platoon split, and is tough to use in weekly formats or daily leagues that cap transactions. Still, it can be useful for DFS and may be cited as a reason to avoid pitchers with an average batted ball distribution.

To conclude, both ground ball and fly ball specialists have their uses in fantasy. Groundballers offer lower slugging percentages against and can take full advantage of an elite defensive infield. Flyballers offer superior WHIP and make the best use of an elite defensive outfield. Both gain a minor platoon advantage against hitters that share their specialization, an advantage never enjoyed by arms with no extreme tendency. Next time, we'll look at a tool that can forecast and confirm spikes in everything from GB% to K%: PITCHf/x.

 

MLB & Fantasy Baseball Chat Room

[iflychat_embed id="c-12" hide_user_list="yes" hide_popup_chat="no" height="400px"]

 




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Derrick Nnadi

Signs with the Colts
Charles Omenihu

Commanders Sign Charles Omenihu to a One-Year Deal
A'Shawn Robinson

Buccaneers Sign Defensive Lineman A'Shawn Robinson
Javon Hargrave

Packers Sign Javon Hargrave to a Two-Year Deal
Owen Tippett

Multi-Point Effort Leads Philadelphia to a Victory
Drake Batherson

Scores Twice Versus Montreal
Bradley Chubb

Reaches Agreement on Three-Year Deal With Bills
Osa Odighizuwa

49ers Acquire Osa Odighizuwa From Cowboys on Wednesday
Kyler Murray

to Visit With Vikings on Thursday
Julian Hill

Patriots Agree to Terms With Julian Hill
Lucas Krull

Broncos Re-Sign Tight End Lucas Krull
Carson Wentz

Looking Unlikely for the Jets
LeBron James

Questionable Thursday Against Bulls
Foster Moreau

Texans Sign Foster Moreau to Add to Tight End Room
Dallas Goedert

Eagles Buy Some Extra Time to Negotiate With Dallas Goedert
Matas Buzelis

Probable Thursday After Career Night
Lamar Jackson

Ravens Still Hopeful They Can Reach Extension With Lamar Jackson
Ryan Kalkbrenner

Added to Injury Report as Probable
Josh Giddey

Likely Active Thursday
Isaiah Hartenstein

Remains Out Against Boston
Chet Holmgren

Ready to Play Thursday
Josh Hart

Won't Play Wednesday vs. Jazz
Victor Wembanyama

Questionable vs. Nuggets
Keyonte George

Set to Suit Up Wednesday
Jakob Poeltl

Cleared to Play Wednesday vs. Pelicans
Kelly Oubre Jr.

Out at Least Two Weeks
Grant Williams

Sidelined Against Kings
John Metchie III

Signing One-Year Deal to Join Panthers
Chris Rodriguez Jr.

Jaguars Signing Chris Rodriguez Jr. on Wednesday
Coby White

Active On Wednesday
Stephen Curry

Expected to Miss 10 More Days
Jake Browning

Plans to Sign One-Year Deal With Buccaneers
Dylan Parham

Jets Agree With Dylan Parham on Two-Year Deal
Durham Smythe

Ravens Agree to Terms With Durham Smythe
Sean Tucker

Buccaneers Tender Sean Tucker on One-Year Deal
Kyler Murray

Officially Released by the Cardinals
Kirk Cousins

Falcons Officially Release Kirk Cousins
Bryce Miller

Shuts Down Bullpen Due to More Oblique Discomfort
Zac Gallen

Named Arizona's Opening Day Starter
Kyle Teel

Could Miss 4-6 Weeks With Hamstring Strain
Hideki Matsuyama

Brings Strong Course History to TPC Sawgrass
Josh Hader

to Start the Year on the Injured List
Adam Scott

in Strong Form Ahead of The Players
Shayne Gostisbehere

to Remain Out for "Couple of Games"
Robert Thomas

Blues Hopeful Robert Thomas Can Play Through Upper-Body Injury
Ross Colton

Suffers Upper-Body Injury Tuesday Night
Connor Ingram

"Feeling Well" After Tuesday's Early Exit
Dylan Larkin

Doubtful for Rest of Road Trip
Andrew Copp

Sustains Lower-Body Injury Tuesday
Justin Brazeau

Out Week-to-Week
Ace Bailey

Cleared to Play Wednesday
Keyonte George

Still Dealing With Illness, Questionable Wednesday
Mitchell Robinson

Available for Wednesday's Tilt
Josh Hart

Questionable for Wednesday Night
Jarrett Allen

Remains Out Wednesday
Cameron Johnson

Considered Probable Wednesday
Kyle Teel

Exits Tuesday's Game With Hamstring Injury
Jamal Murray

Probable for Matchup With Rockets
Rickie Fowler

on Quite the Run Heading to TPC Sawgrass
Sepp Straka

Needs to Forget What Happened Sunday at Bay Hill
Jordan Spieth

an Enigma Heading to The Players Championship
Justin Rose

Trying to Pick Up the Pieces in Florida
Maverick McNealy

Bounces Back at Arnold Palmer Invitational
Brooks Koepka

Continues His Florida Swing With Some Momentum
Nicolai Hojgaard

in Strong Form Ahead of The Players
Robert MacIntyre

a Volatile Option at The Players
Matt Fitzpatrick

Looks to Return to Top Form at The Players
Sam Burns

a High-Risk, High-Reward Option at The Players
Keegan Bradley

Hard to Trust at The Players
Xander Schauffele

Rounding into Form Heading to Players Championship
Rory McIlroy

Set to Return at Players Championship to Defend Title
Jake Knapp

Set to Return at Players Championship
Viktor Hovland

Continues Strong Start to 2026 Season
Jakub Dobes

Makes 17 Saves in Victory
Rasmus Hojgaard

Looking for Bounce-Back at Players Championship
Tommy Fleetwood

Will Need to Find Putter to Compete at Players Championship
Akshay Bhatia

Continues Improving Heading to Players Championship
Alexis Lafrenière

Alexis Lafreniere's Hat Trick Leads New York to Victory
Carter Verhaeghe

Wins it for Florida on Tuesday
Merrill Kelly

Set to Make Spring Training Debut on Friday
Francisco Lindor

"100 Percent Optimistic" he Can be Ready for Opening Day
Justin Thomas

Continues Competitive Return at The Players Championship
Colton Parayko

Rejoins Blues Lineup
Shayne Gostisbehere

Unavailable Against Penguins
Marcus Johansson

Returns From Two-Game Absence
Darren Raddysh

Sits Out Tuesday's Game
Sam Reinhart

Out Tuesday
John Gibson

Available Tuesday
Dylan Larkin

Misses Second Consecutive Game
Corbin Carroll

Set to Play in Cactus League Game on Wednesday
Kyle Stowers

to Make Grapefruit League Debut on Saturday
Hunter Greene

to be Sidelined Through July
James Reimer

Posts Shutout With Seventh Franchise
Tim Stützle

Tim Stutzle Stretches Point Streak to 13 Games
Jesús Luzardo

Jesus Luzardo, Phillies Agree on Five-Year Extension
Corbin Carroll

Could Make Spring Debut This Week
Max Holloway

Drops Decision At UFC 326
Charles Oliveira

Becomes The New BMF Champion
Caio Borralho

Bounces Back
Reinier de Ridder

Reinier De Ridder Loses Back-To-Back Fights
Rob Font

Gets Dominated
Raul Rosas Jr.

Extends His Win Streak
Michael Johnson

Suffers Second-Round Knockout Loss
Drew Dober

Knocks Out Michael Johnson
Rafael Devers

Back in Cactus League Lineup on Monday
Ryan Blaney

Earns his Second Consecutive Phoenix Cup Series Win
Christopher Bell

Falls Short of Victory Despite Dominating at Phoenix
Kyle Larson

Earns Hard-Fought Finish of Third at Phoenix
Denny Hamlin

Quietly Gains Another Top-Five Finish at Phoenix
Joey Logano

Crashes out at Phoenix Despite Strong Run
Tarik Skubal

Could Make Another Start in World Baseball Classic
Jackson Chourio

Should Return to WBC Lineup on Monday
Byron Buxton

"Fine" After Being Hit by Pitch
Ryan Blaney

is Always A Top Favorite to Compete for the Win At Phoenix
Denny Hamlin

Is Denny Hamlin Worth Rostering for Phoenix?
Christopher Bell

is Likely to have Another Solid Phoenix Run
Chase Briscoe

has Plenty of Upside for DFS Lineups at Phoenix
Joey Logano

Could Dominate at Phoenix This Weekend
Chase Elliott

has Plenty of Upside for Sunday's Race at Phoenix
Chris Buescher

Is Chris Buescher Worth Rostering For Phoenix DFS Lineups?
Ross Chastain

Has Found Speed Again at Phoenix
Josh Berry

a Solid Sleeper at Phoenix
Brad Keselowski

Skips Qualifying After Practice Crash at Phoenix
Tyler Reddick

Spins in Practice at Phoenix
William Byron

Should Be a Contender at Phoenix
Kyle Larson

Is Always a Threat at Phoenix
NASCAR

Could Bubba Wallace Be Playable for Phoenix DFS Lineups?
Anthony Alfredo

Is A Favorable DFS Option In A Substitution Role At Phoenix
Brandon Woodruff

Making Cactus League Debut on Saturday
Byron Buxton

Leaves WBC Game After Being Hit by a Pitch on his Elbow
Jackson Chourio

"Fine" After Suffering Hand Contusion
Max Holloway

A Favorite At UFC 326
Charles Oliveira

Set For BMF Title Fight
Reinier de Ridder

Reinier De Ridder Looks To Bounce Back
Caio Borralho

Set For UFC 326 Co-Main Event
Rob Font

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Raul Rosas Jr.

Looks For His Fifth Consecutive Win
Drew Dober

Returns At UFC 326
Michael Johnson

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Rafael Devers

Could Return to Game Action Next Week
Jeremy Peña

Jeremy Pena Hopes to be Ready for Opening Day
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF