👉 TAP TO SAVE 30% WITH CODE NEW
X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball Part 8: Batted Ball Distribution for Pitchers

The league average batted ball distribution in 2015 was 20.9% liners, 45.3% grounders and 33.8% flies. Last time, we took a brief look at how pitchers may specialize in either grounders or fly balls. Fly ball pitchers have a BABIP advantage over their ground ball-inducing counterparts, since fly balls (.129 BABIP in 2015) consistently have lower BABIPs than worm killers (.236). Yet most fantasy owners prefer to roster ground ball pitchers, to the point that GB% is frequently cited as a peripheral stat to determine fantasy viability.

The reason for this is slugging percentage. Fly balls had a collective .666 slugging percentage in 2015 despite the lower BABIP, while grounders had just a .255 SLG. As Giancarlo Stanton hits more homers than most in part by elevating the ball more frequently, fly ball pitchers are liable to give more up by allowing more batted balls into the air. Fantasy owners can live with the odd single through the infield if it means fewer homers allowed.

This line of thinking makes intuitive sense, but I feel it may be overstated at times. Good fly ball pitchers tend to post HR/FB rates a little better than the 10% league average, somewhat limiting the long balls they allow. Many fantasy owners also already know that ballparks play a big role in determining HR allowed. If a park is going to limit the negative consequences, fantasy owners may reap the benefits of a lower WHIP by investing in a pitcher that makes his living in the air. By contrast, ground ball specialists are less likely to benefit from a park's pitching friendly dimensions. Even if a homer is struck, the fly ball guy has a greater probability of it being a solo shot as opposed to a crooked number on the board.

To be clear, pitchers in homer happy locations such as Milwaukee's Miller Park, Yankee Stadium and The Cell in Chicago should absolutely be ground ball guys if they are rostered in fantasy. It is also a useful metric to look at when trying to determine if a given pitcher should be active for a road start at these locations. Still, a high GB% alone should not make a guy fantasy relevant.

A specialty in either grounders or flies may allow a pitcher to maximize the team behind him and beat FIP. For example, pitcher Chris Young posted a 3.06 ERA in 123.1 IP last season despite a FIP of 4.52 and an xFIP of 5.33. Normally, we would label him a clear candidate for painful regression. Young is an extreme flyball pitcher (57.9% FB%), and he does a good job limiting liners (16.6% LD%, 18.5% career) and inducing popups (14.8% IFFB%, 15.2% career). Still, the .209 BABIP he allowed seems too low. Beating the league BABIP by nearly 100 points is not usually sustainable.

Yet Young has two sustainable advantages that FIP doesn't know about. First, Kauffman Stadium is a terrible place for power hitting, helping Young compile a 7.7% HR/FB. His career mark is 8.1%, buoyed by past home addresses like San Diego's Petco Park, New York's Citi Field and Seattle's Safeco Field before any of them moved their fences in. Second, he is pitching in front of a team that simply does not allow fly balls to drop.

Kansas City left fielder Alex Gordon produced 7 DRS last season despite losing significant time to injury. His last healthy season produced an elite 27 DRS in 2014. Center fielder Lorenzo Cain and his 18 DRS are also back in the fold. Right field was something of a mess despite the Royals' title, but Jarrod Dyson figures to secure the lion's share of the playing time in 2016. He was worth 11 DRS in just 560.2 defensive IP in 2015, and could well break 20 with regular work.

Young's extreme fly ball tendencies maximize his ability to use these guys to suppress his BABIP, while his home park helps to ensure that most fly balls remain in play. As long as he's a Royal, Young should be able to post above average ERA and WHIP numbers. The lack of strikeouts hinders his overall fantasy value, but he's an acceptable end game pick in deep or AL Only formats.

While Young is an extreme example, any team with elite infielders or outfielders will help a specialist beat FIP. Research also indicates that extreme pitchers gain a small platoon advantage against like bats, so GB pitcher vs. GB hitter favors the pitcher. The effect isn't quite as large as the more traditional handedness platoon split, and is tough to use in weekly formats or daily leagues that cap transactions. Still, it can be useful for DFS and may be cited as a reason to avoid pitchers with an average batted ball distribution.

To conclude, both ground ball and fly ball specialists have their uses in fantasy. Groundballers offer lower slugging percentages against and can take full advantage of an elite defensive infield. Flyballers offer superior WHIP and make the best use of an elite defensive outfield. Both gain a minor platoon advantage against hitters that share their specialization, an advantage never enjoyed by arms with no extreme tendency. Next time, we'll look at a tool that can forecast and confirm spikes in everything from GB% to K%: PITCHf/x.

 

MLB & Fantasy Baseball Chat Room

[iflychat_embed id="c-12" hide_user_list="yes" hide_popup_chat="no" height="400px"]

 




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Joel Armia

Wraps Up Olympics With Three-Point Performance
Daniil Tarasov

Available for Panthers
Evan Rodrigues

Set to Return Next Week
Aaron Ekblad

Expected to Play Thursday
Pavel Zacha

Cleared for Action
Cooper Flagg

Still Sidelined on Sunday
NHL

Jonathan Lekkerimaki Needs Season-Ending Shoulder Surgery
Scottie Barnes

Ruled Out on Sunday
Mikko Rantanen

Misses Bronze-Medal Game With Lower-Body Injury
Grayson Allen

Back on Saturday Night, Will Come off the Bench
Jalen Suggs

Won't Suit Up on Saturday
Jaden Ivey

Shut Down for at Least Two Weeks
Joe Ryan

Scratched From Grapefruit League Start With Back Tightness
Merrill Kelly

Scratched From Live BP With Back Tightness
Jack Suwinski

Dodgers Claim Jack Suwinski Off Waivers From Pirates
Andrew Vaughn

Can Andrew Vaughn Repeat 2025 Breakout Success?
Brenton Doyle

Carries Buy-Low Potential Heading into 2026
Jack Flaherty

Can Jack Flaherty Bounce Back After 2025 Struggles?
Colton Cowser

Looking to Rebound from Injury-Marred 2025 Campaign
Yandy Díaz

Can Yandy Diaz Repeat 2025 Power Surge?
Sal Stewart

Playing Second Base in First Spring Training Outing
Zach Collins

to Miss Rest of 2025-26 Season
De'Andre Hunter

to Undergo Season-Ending Eye Surgery
Tristan Vukcevic

Exits Early Vs. Pacers
John Collins

Leaves Game with Head Injury
Kawhi Leonard

Exits Early Friday Night
Devin Booker

Sidelined vs. Orlando
Joel Embiid

Out Saturday vs. Pelicans
Kevin McGonigle

Starting at Shortstop in Grapefruit League Opener
Bo Bichette

Batting Third in Mets Spring Training Debut
J.J. Wetherholt

JJ Wetherholt Playing Second, Batting Fifth in Grapefruit League Opener
Kazuma Okamoto

Hitting Third in Grapefruit League Opener
Jorge Polanco

Expected to See a Lot of Time as Designated Hitter
Blake Coleman

Activated From Injured Reserve
Ramón Urías

Ramon Urias Agrees on One-Year Deal With Cardinals
Matt Rempe

Heading to Injured Reserve After Second Thumb Procedure
Roman Anthony

Expected to Hit Leadoff for Boston
Sidney Crosby

a Game-Time Call for Olympic Final
Edwin Uceta

has Shoulder Inflammation, Slight Impingement
Josh Morrissey

Won't Play Sunday
Filip Chytil

Out Indefinitely With Facial Fracture
Connor McDavid

Makes History With Another Multi-Point Outing
Tage Thompson

Expected to Play in Olympic Final
Shohei Ohtani

Might Not be Fully Built Up as a Pitcher by Opening Day
Travis Etienne Jr.

has "Legitimate Interest" in Joining Chiefs
Zach Charbonnet

Undergoes Knee Surgery on Friday
Austin Reaves

Back in Starting Five
Matisse Thybulle

Kris Murray, Matisse Thybulle Suit Up Friday
Scoot Henderson

No Longer Limited
Ben Joyce

Throws Successful Bullpen Session on Friday
Jamal Murray

Jalen Pickett Available Friday vs. Portland
Yoshinobu Yamamoto

to Start on Saturday
LeBron James

Upgraded to Available Friday vs. Clippers
Bryan Ramos

Orioles Claim Bryan Ramos Off Waivers From Cardinals
Max Christie

is Downgraded to Out
Evan Mobley

is Unavailable for Friday's Game
Tyler Herro

to Make his Return on Friday
Norman Powell

is Cleared to Play on Friday
CFB

Curt Cignetti Agrees to New Deal With Indiana, Will Earn $13.2 Million Per Year
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen

Returns to Practice
Josh Morrissey

Remains Out Against Finland
Sidney Crosby

Won't Play Friday
Anthony Hernandez

Set For UFC Houston Main Event
Sean Strickland

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Uros Medic

Set For UFC Houston Co-Main Event
Geoff Neal

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Melquizael Costa

A Favorite At UFC Houston
Dan Ige

An Underdog At UFC Houston
Logan Cooley

Sheds Non-Contact Jersey
Maxwell Crozier

to Miss 10 Weeks After Surgery
Kirill Marchenko

Dealing With Lower-Body Injury
Petr Mrazek

Undergoes Season-Ending Surgery
Rashee Rice

Accused of Assault by Long-Time Girlfriend
Ben Griffin

Looking to Return to Top Form at Riviera
Keegan Bradley

Looking to Build Momentum at Riviera
J.J. Spaun

Putting a Major Concern at Riviera
Sepp Straka

May Have Tough Time at The Genesis Invitational
Shane Lowry

Trending Up Entering the Genesis Invitational
Justin Rose

Off Most Radars at The Genesis Invitational
Robert MacIntyre

a Long Hitter to Watch at Riviera Country Club
Jake Knapp

Red-Hot Heading to Riviera
Min Woo Lee

Attempts to Build Momentum After Pebble Beach
Harry Hall

an Unknown for The Genesis Invitational
Matt Fitzpatrick

Has Favorable Path to Success at Riviera This Week
Wyndham Clark

Not Likely to Contend at Genesis Invitational
Ludvig Aberg

Might Find the Genesis Invitational More Challenging
Harris English

Carries Strong Form to Riviera
Patrick Cantlay

Eyes Another Strong Week at The Genesis Invitational
Daniel Berger

Needs Short Game to Show Up at Riviera
Sam Burns

Hopes Return to Form Continues at Riviera
Collin Morikawa

Riding Wave of Victory Into Riviera
Hideki Matsuyama

Looks to Have Repeat Success at The Genesis Invitational
Scottie Scheffler

Looks to Find Paydirt at Riviera
Xander Schauffele

Rounding into Form Before Genesis Invitational
Mike Evans

Will Return in 2026
Kenneth Walker III

Seahawks Not Expected to Use Franchise Tag on Kenneth Walker III
Bucky Irving

Undergoes Offseason Shoulder Surgery
Tyreek Hill

Says he Will Play in 2026
Joey Logano

Finishes Third in the 2026 Daytona 500
Ricky Stenhouse Jr

. Finishes as the Runner-Up in the Daytona 500
Chase Elliott

Falls Short of His First Daytona 500 Victory Again
Brad Keselowski

Ends Daytona 500 With a Top-Five Finish
Tyler Reddick

Wins the Daytona 500 for the First Time with 23XI Racing
Tyreek Hill

Released by Dolphins
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF