👉 TAP TO SAVE 30% WITH CODE NEW
X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball Part 8: Batted Ball Distribution for Pitchers

The league average batted ball distribution in 2015 was 20.9% liners, 45.3% grounders and 33.8% flies. Last time, we took a brief look at how pitchers may specialize in either grounders or fly balls. Fly ball pitchers have a BABIP advantage over their ground ball-inducing counterparts, since fly balls (.129 BABIP in 2015) consistently have lower BABIPs than worm killers (.236). Yet most fantasy owners prefer to roster ground ball pitchers, to the point that GB% is frequently cited as a peripheral stat to determine fantasy viability.

The reason for this is slugging percentage. Fly balls had a collective .666 slugging percentage in 2015 despite the lower BABIP, while grounders had just a .255 SLG. As Giancarlo Stanton hits more homers than most in part by elevating the ball more frequently, fly ball pitchers are liable to give more up by allowing more batted balls into the air. Fantasy owners can live with the odd single through the infield if it means fewer homers allowed.

This line of thinking makes intuitive sense, but I feel it may be overstated at times. Good fly ball pitchers tend to post HR/FB rates a little better than the 10% league average, somewhat limiting the long balls they allow. Many fantasy owners also already know that ballparks play a big role in determining HR allowed. If a park is going to limit the negative consequences, fantasy owners may reap the benefits of a lower WHIP by investing in a pitcher that makes his living in the air. By contrast, ground ball specialists are less likely to benefit from a park's pitching friendly dimensions. Even if a homer is struck, the fly ball guy has a greater probability of it being a solo shot as opposed to a crooked number on the board.

To be clear, pitchers in homer happy locations such as Milwaukee's Miller Park, Yankee Stadium and The Cell in Chicago should absolutely be ground ball guys if they are rostered in fantasy. It is also a useful metric to look at when trying to determine if a given pitcher should be active for a road start at these locations. Still, a high GB% alone should not make a guy fantasy relevant.

A specialty in either grounders or flies may allow a pitcher to maximize the team behind him and beat FIP. For example, pitcher Chris Young posted a 3.06 ERA in 123.1 IP last season despite a FIP of 4.52 and an xFIP of 5.33. Normally, we would label him a clear candidate for painful regression. Young is an extreme flyball pitcher (57.9% FB%), and he does a good job limiting liners (16.6% LD%, 18.5% career) and inducing popups (14.8% IFFB%, 15.2% career). Still, the .209 BABIP he allowed seems too low. Beating the league BABIP by nearly 100 points is not usually sustainable.

Yet Young has two sustainable advantages that FIP doesn't know about. First, Kauffman Stadium is a terrible place for power hitting, helping Young compile a 7.7% HR/FB. His career mark is 8.1%, buoyed by past home addresses like San Diego's Petco Park, New York's Citi Field and Seattle's Safeco Field before any of them moved their fences in. Second, he is pitching in front of a team that simply does not allow fly balls to drop.

Kansas City left fielder Alex Gordon produced 7 DRS last season despite losing significant time to injury. His last healthy season produced an elite 27 DRS in 2014. Center fielder Lorenzo Cain and his 18 DRS are also back in the fold. Right field was something of a mess despite the Royals' title, but Jarrod Dyson figures to secure the lion's share of the playing time in 2016. He was worth 11 DRS in just 560.2 defensive IP in 2015, and could well break 20 with regular work.

Young's extreme fly ball tendencies maximize his ability to use these guys to suppress his BABIP, while his home park helps to ensure that most fly balls remain in play. As long as he's a Royal, Young should be able to post above average ERA and WHIP numbers. The lack of strikeouts hinders his overall fantasy value, but he's an acceptable end game pick in deep or AL Only formats.

While Young is an extreme example, any team with elite infielders or outfielders will help a specialist beat FIP. Research also indicates that extreme pitchers gain a small platoon advantage against like bats, so GB pitcher vs. GB hitter favors the pitcher. The effect isn't quite as large as the more traditional handedness platoon split, and is tough to use in weekly formats or daily leagues that cap transactions. Still, it can be useful for DFS and may be cited as a reason to avoid pitchers with an average batted ball distribution.

To conclude, both ground ball and fly ball specialists have their uses in fantasy. Groundballers offer lower slugging percentages against and can take full advantage of an elite defensive infield. Flyballers offer superior WHIP and make the best use of an elite defensive outfield. Both gain a minor platoon advantage against hitters that share their specialization, an advantage never enjoyed by arms with no extreme tendency. Next time, we'll look at a tool that can forecast and confirm spikes in everything from GB% to K%: PITCHf/x.

 

MLB & Fantasy Baseball Chat Room

[iflychat_embed id="c-12" hide_user_list="yes" hide_popup_chat="no" height="400px"]

 




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Francisco Lindor

to Have Surgery on his Hand on Wednesday
Mason Miller

Officially Named Padres Closer
Bryce Eldridge

Getting Work in Left Field
MacKenzie Gore

Thows Bullpen Session on Wednesday
Jorge Polanco

Mets Expect Bo Bichette to Bat Third, Jorge Polanco Fourth
Gary Sánchez

Brewers Signing Gary Sanchez to One-Year Deal
Dylan Cease

Adding a Changeup, Striving for Consistency
Evan Phillips

Dodgers Re-Sign Evan Phillips
Aidan Miller

Mostly Working on Left Side of the Infield
Cade Horton

Set for Elevated Workload in Year 2
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr. Says he's "Healthy Now"
Giancarlo Stanton

Yankees Expect Giancarlo Stanton to be "Good to Go" in Camp
Gerrit Cole

Could Pitch in Spring Training Games
Daniel Palencia

is the Cubs Closer
Ben Rice

to See Bulk of Playing Time at First Base?
Zach Eflin

a Full-Go at Camp
Bryan Abreu

to Open the Season in Closer Role?
Jordan Westburg

to be Slow-Played Due to Strained Oblique
Hunter Brown

Named Astros Opening Day Starter
Yainer Diaz

Behind Due to Sprained Foot
Spencer Schwellenbach

May Need Surgery to Remove Bone Spurs
Cameron Young

Looking for Pebble Beach Success
J.J. Spaun

Looks to Turn Things Around at Pebble Beach
Collin Morikawa

Eyes Turnaround at Pebble Beach
Jake Knapp

Brings Hot Form to Pebble Beach
Nick Taylor

in Good Form Going into Pebble Beach Event
Viktor Hovland

Carrying Momentum Into Pebble Beach
Tommy Fleetwood

Set for 2026 PGA Tour Debut at Pebble Beach
Harris English

Looks to Build on Steady Form at Pebble Beach
Justin Rose

Tuned in for AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am
Keegan Bradley

a Boom-or-Bust Play at Pebble Beach
Maverick McNealy

Playing Well with Pebble Beach Looming
Russell Henley

Carries Momentum to Pebble Beach
Shane Lowry

Makes 2026 PGA Tour Debut at Pebble Beach
Michael Kim

Putting Well with Pebble Beach on the Horizon
Billy Horschel

a Little Rattled After Consecutive Missed Cuts
Ben Griffin

Solid But Not Spectacular Early in 2026
Wyndham Clark

Has Question Marks Heading to Pebble Beach
Daniel Berger

Heating Up at the Right Time for Pebble Beach
Sam Hauser

Likely to Return Wednesday
Dean Wade

Out Wednesday
Ron Holland II

Misses Second Consecutive Game Wednesday
Santi Aldama

Won't Play Against Nuggets
Ajay Mitchell

Out for 10th Straight Game
Stephon Castle

Suffers Pelvic Contusion in Tuesday's Win
Evan Mobley

Remains Out Wednesday
Deandre Ayton

Ruled Out Tuesday
Jakob Poeltl

Listed as Questionable for Wednesday
Collin Murray-Boyles

Out Wednesday
Nicolas Claxton

Added to Injury Report
Cedric Coward

Unlikely to Play Wednesday
De'Anthony Melton

Iffy for Wednesday Night
Andrew Wiggins

Could Miss Wednesday's Action
Pelle Larsson

Out Wednesday Against Pelicans
Tyler Herro

Ruled Out for 15th Straight Game
Tre Jones

Expected to Remain Out Wednesday
Malik Monk

Still Out With Illness
Zach LaVine

to Miss Third Consecutive Game
Domantas Sabonis

Unavailable Wednesday
Russell Westbrook

Won't Play Wednesday
Jordan Spieth

Looking For a Return to Form at Pebble Beach
Juuse Saros

Starting Wednesday
William Nylander

Iffy for Olympic Opener
Martin Necas

Ready for Thursday
Drake Maye

Says his Shoulder Injury was Significant
Xander Schauffele

Trying to Get the Motor Going at Pebble Beach
Hideki Matsuyama

Trying to Overcome Sunday Collapse
Kenneth Walker III

Runs Away With Super Bowl MVP Honors
Vinicius Oliveira

Suffers His First UFC Loss
Mario Bautista

Gets Back In The Win Column
Kyoji Horiguchi

Dominates At UFC Vegas 113
Amir Albazi

Gets Dominated At UFC Vegas 113
Rizvan Kuniev

Earns His First UFC Win
Jailton Almeida

Drops Decision At UFC Vegas 113
Marc-Andre Barriault

Loses Back-To-Back Fights
Michal Oleksiejczuk

Gets His Third Win In A Row
Las Vegas Raiders

Klint Kubiak Confirms he Will be Next Raiders Head Coach
Jonas Rondbjerg

Out for Olympics
Brad Marchand

Good to Go for Olympic Opener
Gabriel Landeskog

Healthy for Olympics
Jack Hughes

Cleared for Olympics
Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Returns to Super Bowl After Injury Scare
Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Being Evaluated for Concussion, Questionable to Return
James Pearce Jr.

Arrested Following Police Chase
Quinn Hughes

Enters Olympics in Red-Hot Form
NHL

Juho Lammikko Returns to Switzerland
Pavel Zacha

Misses Olympics
Travis Kelce

Undecided on Playing Future, Leaning Towards Returning in 2026?
CFB

Rutgers Hiring South Dakota Head Coach Travis Johansen as Defensive Coordinator
Vinicius Oliveira

Looks For His Seventh Consecutive Win
Mario Bautista

A Favorite At UFC Vegas 113
Kyoji Horiguchi

Set For UFC Vegas 113 Co-Main Event
Amir Albazi

Looks To Bounce Back
Rizvan Kuniev

Looks For His First UFC Win
Jailton Almeida

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Marc-Andre Barriault

In Dire Need Of Victory
Michal Oleksiejczuk

Looks For His Third Win In A Row
Michael Penix Jr.

Says he's Ahead of Schedule After Knee Surgery
Cleveland Browns

Jim Schwartz Resigns as Browns Defensive Coordinator
Malik Nabers

Says his Rehab has Been "Phenomenal"
CFB

Oklahoma Hiring Former NFL Defensive Lineman DeShawn Williams to Analyst Role
CFB

Jahmal Edrine Charged with Sexual Assault, No Longer Enrolled at Virginia
Jakob Chychrun

Makes Big Impact in Thursday's Win
Brandon Bussi

Shuts Out Rangers With 16 Saves
Anze Kopitar

Reaches 1,300 Career Points
Mark Stone

Becomes First Vegas Player With 100 Multi-Point Games
Daniil Tarasov

Injured in Battle of Florida
Andrei Kuzmenko

Hurt Versus Vegas
John Carlson

Suffers Lower-Body Injury
Matthew Stafford

Named 2025 NFL MVP, Will Return in 2026
Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Takes Home Offensive Player of the Year Honors
Christian McCaffrey

Named Comeback Player of the Year
Tetairoa McMillan

Named Offensive Rookie of the Year
Myles Garrett

Unanimously Wins Defensive Player of the Year Award
Brad Marchand

Evan Rodrigues Among Panthers Absentees Thursday
Calum Ritchie

Rejoins Islanders Lineup as Second-Line Center
Zach Benson

Sits Out Second Straight Game
Pierre-Luc Dubois

Available Against Predators
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF