👉 TAP TO SAVE 30% WITH CODE NEW
X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Using Sabermetrics for Fantasy Baseball Part 8: Batted Ball Distribution for Pitchers

The league average batted ball distribution in 2015 was 20.9% liners, 45.3% grounders and 33.8% flies. Last time, we took a brief look at how pitchers may specialize in either grounders or fly balls. Fly ball pitchers have a BABIP advantage over their ground ball-inducing counterparts, since fly balls (.129 BABIP in 2015) consistently have lower BABIPs than worm killers (.236). Yet most fantasy owners prefer to roster ground ball pitchers, to the point that GB% is frequently cited as a peripheral stat to determine fantasy viability.

The reason for this is slugging percentage. Fly balls had a collective .666 slugging percentage in 2015 despite the lower BABIP, while grounders had just a .255 SLG. As Giancarlo Stanton hits more homers than most in part by elevating the ball more frequently, fly ball pitchers are liable to give more up by allowing more batted balls into the air. Fantasy owners can live with the odd single through the infield if it means fewer homers allowed.

This line of thinking makes intuitive sense, but I feel it may be overstated at times. Good fly ball pitchers tend to post HR/FB rates a little better than the 10% league average, somewhat limiting the long balls they allow. Many fantasy owners also already know that ballparks play a big role in determining HR allowed. If a park is going to limit the negative consequences, fantasy owners may reap the benefits of a lower WHIP by investing in a pitcher that makes his living in the air. By contrast, ground ball specialists are less likely to benefit from a park's pitching friendly dimensions. Even if a homer is struck, the fly ball guy has a greater probability of it being a solo shot as opposed to a crooked number on the board.

To be clear, pitchers in homer happy locations such as Milwaukee's Miller Park, Yankee Stadium and The Cell in Chicago should absolutely be ground ball guys if they are rostered in fantasy. It is also a useful metric to look at when trying to determine if a given pitcher should be active for a road start at these locations. Still, a high GB% alone should not make a guy fantasy relevant.

A specialty in either grounders or flies may allow a pitcher to maximize the team behind him and beat FIP. For example, pitcher Chris Young posted a 3.06 ERA in 123.1 IP last season despite a FIP of 4.52 and an xFIP of 5.33. Normally, we would label him a clear candidate for painful regression. Young is an extreme flyball pitcher (57.9% FB%), and he does a good job limiting liners (16.6% LD%, 18.5% career) and inducing popups (14.8% IFFB%, 15.2% career). Still, the .209 BABIP he allowed seems too low. Beating the league BABIP by nearly 100 points is not usually sustainable.

Yet Young has two sustainable advantages that FIP doesn't know about. First, Kauffman Stadium is a terrible place for power hitting, helping Young compile a 7.7% HR/FB. His career mark is 8.1%, buoyed by past home addresses like San Diego's Petco Park, New York's Citi Field and Seattle's Safeco Field before any of them moved their fences in. Second, he is pitching in front of a team that simply does not allow fly balls to drop.

Kansas City left fielder Alex Gordon produced 7 DRS last season despite losing significant time to injury. His last healthy season produced an elite 27 DRS in 2014. Center fielder Lorenzo Cain and his 18 DRS are also back in the fold. Right field was something of a mess despite the Royals' title, but Jarrod Dyson figures to secure the lion's share of the playing time in 2016. He was worth 11 DRS in just 560.2 defensive IP in 2015, and could well break 20 with regular work.

Young's extreme fly ball tendencies maximize his ability to use these guys to suppress his BABIP, while his home park helps to ensure that most fly balls remain in play. As long as he's a Royal, Young should be able to post above average ERA and WHIP numbers. The lack of strikeouts hinders his overall fantasy value, but he's an acceptable end game pick in deep or AL Only formats.

While Young is an extreme example, any team with elite infielders or outfielders will help a specialist beat FIP. Research also indicates that extreme pitchers gain a small platoon advantage against like bats, so GB pitcher vs. GB hitter favors the pitcher. The effect isn't quite as large as the more traditional handedness platoon split, and is tough to use in weekly formats or daily leagues that cap transactions. Still, it can be useful for DFS and may be cited as a reason to avoid pitchers with an average batted ball distribution.

To conclude, both ground ball and fly ball specialists have their uses in fantasy. Groundballers offer lower slugging percentages against and can take full advantage of an elite defensive infield. Flyballers offer superior WHIP and make the best use of an elite defensive outfield. Both gain a minor platoon advantage against hitters that share their specialization, an advantage never enjoyed by arms with no extreme tendency. Next time, we'll look at a tool that can forecast and confirm spikes in everything from GB% to K%: PITCHf/x.

 

MLB & Fantasy Baseball Chat Room

[iflychat_embed id="c-12" hide_user_list="yes" hide_popup_chat="no" height="400px"]

 




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Sergei Bobrovsky

Sharp In Victory
Brad Marchand

Scores Two Goals in Victory
Noah Dobson

Scores Twice in Overtime Loss
Matthew Schaefer

has Two-Goal Game
Felipe Bunes

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Édgar Cháirez

Edgar Chairez A Favorite At UFC Mexico City
Konnor Griffin

Back in the Lineup After Injury Scare
Troy Melton

Needs Extended Rest, Unlikely to be Ready for Opening Day
Royce Lewis

MRI Comes Back Clean on Royce Lewis
George Pickens

Cowboys Not Interested in Trading George Pickens
Cedric Coward

to Miss Sixth Straight Game
Taj Gibson

Agrees to Deal With Grizzlies
Memphis Grizzlies

Kyle Anderson Agrees to Buyout, Plans to Join Timberwolves
Jabari Smith Jr.

Exits with Right Ankle Injury
Norman Powell

Leaves Game with Groin Injury
Joe Musgrove

Sharp in Simulated Game, Quickly Approaching Spring Training Debut
Alexandre Sarr

Considered Week-to-Week
Kyle Freeland

Nearing Spring Debut
Lauri Markkanen

to Miss At Least Two Weeks
Willi Castro

Expected to be Aggressive on Basepaths in Colorado
Gerrit Cole

Set to Face Live Hitters Again on Friday
Gunnar Hoglund

Dealing with Knee Injury
Jacob Lopez

Throwing Live Batting Practice, Nearing Spring Debut
Matt Boldy

Makes History With Another Four-Point Performance
Jake Guentzel

Sets Up Three Goals Thursday
Leon Draisaitl

Tallies Four Points Against Kings
Joel Kiviranta

Sustains Undisclosed Injury Thursday
Filip Gustavsson

Makes Late Exit Thursday
Colt Emerson

Heating Up at Spring Training
Joel Armia

Sustains Upper-Body Injury
Samuel Basallo

Not Expected to Undergo Further Testing
Charlie Condon

Enjoying Hot Start to Spring Games
Drew Doughty

Exits Loss With Lower-Body Injury
Aidan Miller

Remains Without a Timetable
Andrew Painter

to Make Spring Debut on Sunday
Carson Benge

Making Strong Case to Earn Starting Role
Jordan Binnington

on Non-Roster List
Mackenzie Blackwood

Starting in Net Versus Wild
Jaxson Hayes

Good to Go Thursday Night
Josh Jung

Pulled as a Precaution With Hamstring Injury
Robert Williams III

Donovan Clingan Out, Robert Williams III and Yang Hansen Cleared
Sean Manaea

Trying to Return to Previous Arm Slot
Patrick Williams

Jalen Smith, Patrick Williams Out At Least One Week
Keldon Johnson

is Active on Thursday
Khris Middleton

Available Thursday Against Sacramento
Cody Ponce

Throws an Inning in Spring Debut
Daniel Gafford

Ruled Out Thursday vs. Kings
Nikola Jović

Nikola Jovic Remains Out on Thursday
Stephon Castle

Cleared to Play Thursday vs. Nets
Davion Mitchell

is Available on Thursday
Joel Embiid

is Cleared for Thursday's Game
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

Off the Injury Report for Friday
Norman Powell

Active On Thursday
Zaccharie Risacher

Available Against Washington
Andrew Nembhard

Set to Suit Up Thursday
Zack Wheeler

Targeting Early Return?
Nolan McLean

Dominant in First Spring Outing
Dylan Holloway

Rejoins Blues Lineup Thursday
Simon Edvinsson

Back in Red Wings Lineup Thursday
Adam Fox

Ready to Face Flyers
Igor Shesterkin

Available Thursday
Kris Letang

Returns to Action Thursday
Tim Stützle

Tim Stutzle a Game-Time Call Thursday
Nathan MacKinnon

Expected to Play Thursday
Merrill Kelly

Diamondbacks Holding Out Hope Merrill Kelly Can Avoid the Injured List
Ashton Jeanty

Not in Line for Workhorse Role in 2026?
Anthony Richardson Sr.

Colts Give Anthony Richardson Sr. Permission to Seek a Trade
Brock Nelson

Produces 30th Goal of the Campaign
Kyler Murray

Prefers to be Released
Derek Carr

"Strong Belief" That Derek Carr is "Very Serious" About Unretiring
Andy Dalton

Is Andy Dalton Available for a Trade?
Keith Mitchell

Making The Comfortable Return to PGA National
CFB

Chandler Morris Suing NCAA for Seventh Year of Eligibility
Chris Kirk

Searching for a Spark at Cognizant Classic
Brooks Koepka

Making Third PGA Tour Start at Cognizant Classic
Mackenzie Hughes

a Steady Option at Cognizant Classic
Seamus Power

Seeking More Green in Florida
PGA

Haotong Li Back From a Break as Florida Stretch Starts
Stephan Jaeger

Trying to Put Four Rounds Together in Florida
PGA

Nico Echavarria Again Attempting to Make the Weekend
Patrick Fishburn

Looking for a Spark at Cognizant Classic
Blades Brown

Set for Cognizant Classic Debut
Michael Thorbjornsen

Looking to Bounce Back at Cognizant Classic
Maxx Crosby

Raiders Expect Maxx Crosby to Return
Billy Horschel

Looks to Improve Season at Cognizant Classic
Kyle Pitts Sr.

Falcons Place Franchise Tag on Kyle Pitts Sr.
Joe Highsmith

Returns to Defend at Cognizant Classic
Quinshon Judkins

Out of Walking Boot, Will be Ready for Training Camp
Breece Hall

Jets Will Use Franchise Tag on Breece Hall if Extension isn't Reached
Joel Dahmen

Needs Better Consistency Heading Into The Florida Swing
Daniel Berger

Looks to Improve Putting as PGA Tour Begins Its Florida Swing
Kirk Cousins

Falcons Plan to Release Kirk Cousins
Zach Ertz

Plans to Return for 14th Season
Davis Thompson

Struggling to Find Birdies as Florida Looms
Tom Kim

Not Quite Cutting It in 2026
Nicolai Hojgaard

Wants to Build Momentum from Scottsdale
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Returns After Extended Break for Florida Event
CFB

Gunner Rivers Follows His Father, Commits To North Carolina State
Will Zalatoris

Set to Make Tournament Debut at Cognizant Classic
Rasmus Hojgaard

Trending Up at the Cognizant Classic
Anthony Hernandez

Suffers Third-Round TKO Loss
Sean Strickland

Gets Back In The Win Column
Kyle Pitts Sr.

Falcons Planning to Use Franchise Tag on Kyle Pitts Sr.
Geoff Neal

Suffers Back-To-Back Knockout Losses
Uros Medic

Shines At UFC Houston
Dan Ige

Gets Finished For The First Time In His Career
Melquizael Costa

Extends His Win Streak To Six
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Falls Short of Victory at EchoPark Speedway
Carson Hocevar

Rallies to Fourth At EchoPark Speedway After Early Struggles
Ross Chastain

Finishes Third At EchoPark Speedway
Chase Briscoe

Scores First Career Top-Five Finish at EchoPark Speedway
Tyler Reddick

Nabs His Second Win of the Season At EchoPark Speedway
Joey Logano

Will Be Popular DFS Pick at EchoPark Speedway
Tyler Reddick

on Pole After Qualifying Rained Out at EchoPark Speedway
Chase Elliott

Could Chase Elliott Be Worth Rostering At EchoPark Speedway?
Ryan Blaney

Is Ryan Blaney Worth Rostering for DFS at EchoPark Speedway?
William Byron

Is William Byron Worth Rostering for DFS at EchoPark Speedway?
Rondale Moore

Passes Away
Denny Hamlin

Is Worth Consideration for EchoPark Speedway DFS Lineups
Brad Keselowski

Is A Tournament Option for DFS At EchoPark Speedway
NASCAR

Is Bubba Wallace Rosterable In DFS At EchoPark Speedway?
Austin Cindric

Should DFS Managers Roster Austin Cindric at EchoPark Speedway?
Ross Chastain

Is Ross Chastain A Sneaky DFS Option for EchoPark Speedway?
Ricky Stenhouse Jr

Is Ricky Stenhouse Jr. Worth Rostering for DFS at EchoPark Speedway?
Alex Bowman

Will Start Towards the Rear At EchoPark Speedway
Javonte Williams

Cowboys Sign Javonte Williams to Three-Year, $24 Million Extension
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF