X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

2021 Undervalued Draft Targets - Starting Pitchers

Jon Anderson identifies starting pitchers he loves at their current ADP as undervalued draft targets for 2021.

In late November, before I officially joined the RotoBaller team, I began a long post series where I went rotation-by-rotation, slowly populating my SP ranks for 2021. The way I did this was I would do the analysis and take a long look at each player, and then insert them into the list based on where I think they stacked up with the pitchers I had already looked at.

This was a really eye-opening exercise, and I learned a ton about the 2021 SP player pool. Lots of the rankings you see out there do not start from scratch. They are either copied from someone else's rankings or ADP data and then edited. This causes an "anchoring" effect where even if the ranker wants to move a guy up or down, they don't move them very far from their original spot. The way I went about my rankings avoided this kind of bias completely. You can find the whole series here.

After all the hours of writing that went into the series, I have a very strong feel for the player pool here and want to share some of my results. What I did was compare my rankings with the current NFBC ADP data. In this post, I will talk briefly about the guys that I rank much more highly than what we're seeing in NFBC right now. I am starting up top and will work my way down.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Luis Castillo, Cincinnati Reds

Castillo is the first guy with a disparity between my rankings and the current ADP data. I have Castillo as my number five starter, and he's currently the ninth off the board in drafts. The main reason for this is the consistent improvement he has shown in his young career.

His strikeout rate and ground-ball rate have improved each of the last three seasons, which are two of the most three important metrics to me (walk rate being the other, which he is about league average in). The changeup is one of the league's best pitches, generating a massive 23% swinging-strike rate last year. He adds a strong four-seamer and sinker to the pitch mix, giving him a diverse arsenal with multiple ways to attack.

It is very rare for a guy with an elite strikeout rate and an elite ground-ball rate to not have tons of success, and at the ripe age of 28, I think Castillo has even more room for growth.

 

Brandon Woodruff, Milwaukee Brewers

The Brewers young ace is currently the 13th pitcher off the board, but I have him at number eight on my ranks. This is for much of the same reasons as Castillo. Woodruff has consistently increased his strikeout rate and ground-ball rate while posting a really strong walk rate (6.1% the last two seasons).

A knock on Woodruff is his reliance on the fastball, which is fair because he has thrown a fastball over 60% of the time in his career, but he does split it between two variations (four-seam and sinker). These two pitches are both thrown very hard and move differently, which keeps hitters guessing. He gets whiffs with the four-seamers and ground-balls with the sinker, a great combination that lets him really limit walks.

Despite being heavy on fastballs, he does have a strong changeup and slider combination. Neither pitch falls into the "elite" category yet, but they are both strong enough to make him a really tough customer. There's definite room for growth here, and I could see Woodruff flirting with a top-five season if he improves on his secondary stuff.

 

Frankie Montas, Oakland Athletics

Many fantasy managers may be hesitant to draft Montas after looking at his 2020 line of a 5.60 ERA and a 1.51 WHIP, but you have to keep in mind that the guy just was not healthy last year. Pair that up with him missing half the season in 2019 due to suspension and you have a guy that is going to fall very far in drafts once again.

Looking at the "stuff" Montas has, he appears much better than a guy that is the 49th pitcher off the board right now in NFBC drafts. His splitter is one of the best pitches in the game, racking up a 39% CSW rate last year (he threw 118 of them). He backs that pitch up with a strong sinker that can touch 98 miles per hour and generates lots of ground-balls. The icing on the cake is that he has two other pitches that he can work into most counts. Montas has a great arsenal, huge upside, and is being drafted much too late due to injury issues that are likely behind him.

 

Dustin May, Los Angeles Dodgers

It can be frustrating to see a guy throwing the ball so hard with so much movement but not getting strikeouts. Dustin May is the poster boy for that in the fantasy world. He's had all the hype in the world but just does not generate strikeouts, posting a 22.7% strikeout rate in 2019 and then a 19.6% rate last season.

While you can't count on him for strikeouts, you can for sure count on him to get tons of groundballs and limit the damage. Half of his pitches are sinkers that can get up to 100 miles per hour at times. This is really fun to watch, but it is also the reason that he does not get strikeouts. Sinkers are naturally easier to make contact with, but the trouble for hitters is that they are really hard to hit in the air. The average launch angle on a Dustin May sinker was three degrees; which is directly into the ground.

He throws a cutter and a curveball for most of the rest of his arsenal, and neither of these are huge swing-and-miss pitches either. I do not ever expect a 25%+ strikeout rate from May, but I am willing to take on the lower strikeout rate because of how confident I am in him continually posting strong ERA's and win totals with that Dodgers offense behind him. Right now he is going outside of the top 50 starters in NFBC leagues, and I have him flirting with my top 30.

 

Griffin Canning, Los Angeles Angels

Canning had his struggles last year after getting a late start to the year after dealing with some elbow injuries. His 23.5%-9.7% K-BB ratio is far from encouraging, but I think that was attributable to the elbow discomfort and delayed season. Right now, he is barely in the top 100 of starting pitchers off the board in NFBC drafts, and I have him in my top 50!

What this Angels righty has going for him is a deep pitch arsenal. He has a pretty strong fastball that he reached the upper-nineties with in his rookie season. The velocity took a small step backward last year, but I expect that to return in 2021 if he's healthy. Playing off the heater is one of the more impressive curveballs in the game, which earned a 45% whiff rate (this is swings-and-misses divided by total swings) in 2019, and a 47% rate in 2020. This curveball has one of the highest spin rates in the league, and he throws it in the upper-eighties.

He adds to this a slider and changeup combination that still needs some development, but there is real promise there. In all, Canning is a young guy with a really strong arm that had lots of success in the minor leagues, and he's being wildly overlooked in drafts right now.

 

Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers

Skubal was not even the most highly touted young pitcher on his own team last year, as he was often overlooked for Casey Mize. However, Skubal outperformed Mize and posted a really strong 27.6% strikeout rate with an 8.2% walk rate. The ERA was bloated because of a huge home run issue (2.53 HR/9). That has led him to be the 90th starting pitcher off the board in NFBC drafts right now. Call me crazy, but I don't think a guy with as much talent as Skubal will post anything close to a home run rate that high over a full season. I have him ranked as my number 52 SP right now.

The Tigers' plan was probably not to have Skubal in the Majors so early, but the canceled minor league season forced their hand. One possible consequence of that early arrival was Skubal really being overly reliant on his fastball, throwing it 59% of the time. While it is a great pitch (touches 98 on the gun), you just cannot throw that many fastballs and have success in the Majors. The good news is that Skubal has four other pitches in his arsenal. They all need some refinement, but just the presence of them really raise the ceiling here. With a full offseason of work, Skubal could be ready to really take the next step forward and crush his draft price.

 

Mike Minor, Kansas City Royals

Fantasy managers are currently taking Minor outside of the top-100 SP, and I have him at number 56 on my list. The reason for this is that he still maintained his solid "stuff" in 2020, he just got horrible results in a short sample. The 1.75 HR/9 is unlikely to ever happen again, especially given his move into the cavernous Kauffman Stadium. Minor maintained his high spin rate and velocity on his fastball and posted an awesome 36% CSW rate on his changeup. His slider was a different story, performing pitifully, but most of the damage on that pitch came on the long ball which he should have less trouble with now as a Royal.

I'm not saying that Minor is going to win you a league or anything like that, but I think the field has wildly overreacted to his bad 2020 numbers and has not given him enough of a boost after he signed with the Royals and got out of that brutal home ballpark.

 

Yusei Kikuchi, Seattle Mariners

Here is another guy that is outside of the top 100 in drafts right now but I have in my top 60 (#59). The main issue for Kikuchi in his first year in the States was the home run ball, giving up two homers per nine innings. He fixed that right up in 2020, dropping the rate to 0.57. That drastic change is made more believable by the fact that he reduced his four-seam usage and started throwing a brand new cutter.

Velocity is no issue for Kikuchi, he can touch 98 with the four-seamer and 96 with the cutter. He also keeps the cutter on the ground with an average exit angle of one degree.

The problem is that those two fastballs make up almost 80% of his arsenal. His third pitch is the slider which he threw only 16% of the time last year. He did post a solid .330 expected slugging percentage with the slider and had a respectable 38.7% whiff rate, so it's not a garbage pitch. Improving this slider and throwing it more frequently may be the thing that Kikuchi needs to reach the next level. I don't think there is SP1 upside here, but he's a steal at his current draft price.

 

Carlos Carrasco, Cleveland Indians

Cleveland's veteran righty is the 25th pitcher off the board right now, which seems like a steal. Sure, he'll be 34 years old this year, but Carrasco should (in theory) age a bit better than some other starters because he does not rely on heavy velocity. There were also questions about his health after that tough 2019 season he had, but he returned in 2020 and looked the same guy he's always been. Carrasco has five different pitches and racked up really strong swinging-strike rates on four of them last year.

I don't see any reason that Carrasco can't post another top-twenty fantasy season in 2021, and you can get him much cheaper than that right now.

Update: After this article was written, Carrasco was traded to the Mets, and then endured a hamstring injury (tear) that will sideline him for six-to-eight weeks, until around the May or June timeframe.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy baseball app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, sleepers, prospects & more. All free!



More 2021 Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Tom Hoge

Sputtering into Bank of Utah Championship
Sahith Theegala

On the Upswing Heading into Utah
Andrew Putnam

Looks to Find Form in Utah
Matt McCarty

Looks to Defend Title in Utah
Ben Kohles

a Strong Value Play at Bank of Utah Championship
Max Homa

Trending Up Entering the Bank of Utah Championship
Nick Dunlap

Searching for Spark at Bank of Utah Championship
Quade Cummins

Struggling to Find Form Ahead of Bank of Utah Championship
Gabe Vincent

Starting on Tuesday Night
Maxx Crosby

Raiders Won't Trade Maxx Crosby
Jimmy Butler III

Officially Good to Go Versus the Lakers
Jonathan Kuminga

Officially Available on Tuesday Night
Anthony Edwards

Uncertain for the Opener
De'Aaron Fox

Sidelined For Spurs Season Opener
Jonathan Marchessault

Remains Absent Against Ducks
Darcy Kuemper

Available Tuesday
Corey Perry

Makes Season Debut Tuesday
Matt Duchene

Misses Tuesday's Action
Kevon Looney

Unavailable For Season Opener Versus Memphis
Alexander Romanov

Unavailable Versus Sharks
Brock Boeser

Remains Out Tuesday
Jared McCann

Out on Tuesday
Daniel Gafford

Not Expected to Play Versus San Antonio
Darius Garland

Unavailable For Wednesday
Kel'el Ware

Questionable for Wednesday Night
OG Anunoby

Likely Available on Wednesday Evening
Mitchell Robinson

Out Of Action For Knicks Season Opener
Karl-Anthony Towns

Questionable for the Opener
Josh Hart

Unavailable For Knicks Season Opener on Wednesday
Jaylen Brown

Questionable for Celtics Season Opener
Tari Eason

Not Signing His Rookie Extension with the Rockets
Maxi Kleber

Sidelined at Least Two Weeks
Jason Day

Making a Spot Start at Bank of Utah Championship
Luke Clanton

Looks to Build on Momentum This Week in Utah
Los Angeles Angels

Kurt Suzuki to be the Angels' Next Manager
Bo Bichette

Plans to be Ready for World Series
Tyrod Taylor

Aaron Glenn "Moving Toward" Naming Tyrod Taylor the Starting QB
Zach Charbonnet

Finds the End Zone Twice on Monday Night
Jaxon Smith-Njigba

Continues Elite Production
Dorian Finney-Smith

Officially Out for Season Opener
Chris Godwin

Bucky Irving May Not Play This Week
Isaiah Joe

Out Tuesday
Michael Penix Jr.

Expected to Be "Good to Go" for Sunday
Alex Caruso

Good to Go for Season Opener
Darius Garland

"Ahead of Schedule" But Unlikely to Play Against Knicks
De'Andre Hunter

Questionable for Season Opener
Nick Foligno

Back With Blackhawks
Pierre-Luc Dubois

Remains Sidelined Tuesday
Alexander Romanov

a Game-Time Call for Tuesday
Niko Mikkola

Cleared for Tuesday
Matt Duchene

Probable for Tuesday's Game
Adin Hill

Suffers Lower-Body Injury Monday
Nico Collins

Ruled Out Late on Monday Night With Concussion
Nico Collins

Suffers Head Injury on Monday Night
Jahmyr Gibbs

Blows Up For 218 Total Yards, Two Touchdowns in Win
Mike Evans

to Miss Most of the Year With Broken Clavicle
Brandon Woodruff

Expects to Be Ready for Opening Day
Mike Evans

Ruled Out Monday With Concussion, Shoulder Injury
Mike Evans

Making his Return in Primetime Against Detroit
Emeka Egbuka

Officially Active on Monday Night
Patrik Laine

Remains Out Monday
Jared McCann

Out Against Flyers
Carson Soucy

Ready to Return Monday
Zach Bogosian

Unavailable Against Rangers
Marco Rossi

Misses Monday's Action
Shayne Gostisbehere

Sits Out Monday's Game
Mark Stone

Out Week-to-Week
Michael Penix Jr.

Dealing With Bone Bruise in Foot, Considered Day-to-Day
Jayden Daniels

Avoids Long-Term Injury, Status Unknown for Week 8
Tua Tagovailoa

Dolphins Sticking With Tua Tagovailoa as Their Starting QB
Brock Bowers

Expected Back After the Bye
Darren Waller

Week-to-Week Following MRI
Kendre Miller

Out for the Year After Suffering Torn ACL
Bryce Young

Expected to Miss Week 8
Justin Fields

to Lose Starting Job After Week 7 Benching?
Reinier de Ridder

Reinier De Ridder Suffers His First UFC Loss
Brendan Allen

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Kevin Holland

Drops Decision
Mike Malott

Wins Third Fight In A Row
Marlon Vera

Loses Third Consecutive Fight
Aiemann Zahabi

Gets A Razor-Thin Split Decision Win
Jasmine Jasudavicius

Suffers First-Round TKO Loss
Manon Fiorot

Gets Back In The Win Column
Ryan Donato

Leads Blackhawks to Victory Sunday
Davey Grant

Suffers Submission Loss
Charles Jourdain

Gets First-Round Submission Win
Matt Frevola

Gets Dominated At UFC Vancouver
Matt Frevola

Kyle Nelson Dominates Matt Frevola
George Springer

Returns to Lineup for Game 6 of ALCS
CFB

Colorado State Fires Head Coach Jay Norvell After Four Seasons
CFB

Florida Fires Head Coach Billy Napier After Four Years
Chase Elliott

Can Chase Elliott Deliver Another Clutch Win to Make Championship 4?
William Byron

Seeks First Win at Talladega to Overcome Las Vegas Crash
Chase Briscoe

Likely to Finish Worse Than he Starts
Kyle Larson

Despite No Wins on Drafting Tracks, Kyle Larson is Improving
Tyler Reddick

Despite Winning at Talladega, Tyler Reddick's Drafting Record Is Not So Hot
Ross Chastain

Poor Qualifying Makes him a Strong DFS Option at Talladega
Chris Buescher

Excellent Crash Avoidance Could Reap Dividends at Talladega
Ty Gibbs

If Ty Gibbs' Team Executes a Better Strategy, he Could Win at Talladega
Daniel Suarez

Hopes for Clutch Talladega Win to Remain in the NASCAR Cup Series
Josh Berry

Might Contend at Talladega
Austin Dillon

Doesn't Lead Enough at Talladega to Contend for Wins
Brendan Donovan

Undergoes Sports Hernia Surgery
George Springer

Exits Game 5 Early After HBP on his Knee
Jackson Chourio

Back in Game 4 Lineup Against Dodgers
Iván Herrera

Ivan Herrera Has Bone Spurs Removed From his Elbow
Brendan Allen

Set For UFC Vancouver Main Event
Reinier de Ridder

Reinier De Ridder A Favorite At UFC Vancouver
Mike Malott

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Kevin Holland

Set For UFC Vancouver Co-Main Event
Aiemann Zahabi

Looks For His Seventh Consecutive Win
Marlon Vera

Returns At UFC Vancouver
Jasmine Jasudavicius

Looks To Extend Her Win Streak
Manon Fiorot

Looks To Bounce Back
Aoriqileng

Aori Aoriqileng Looks To Rebound
CFB

Curt Cignetti Signs Eight-Year, $11.6 Million Extension With Indiana
Carlos Rodón

Carlos Rodon Unlikely to Be Ready for Opening Day After Elbow Surgery
Anthony Santander

Removed From ALCS Roster With Back Injury
Jackson Chourio

Aggravates Hamstring, Pulled Early in Game 3 of NLCS
Aaron Judge

Will Not Need Elbow Surgery
Anthony Volpe

Won't be Ready for Start of Next Season
Gerrit Cole

Won't be Ready for Opening Day Next Year
CFB

Jermod McCoy Officially Out for Alabama Matchup
CFB

Jam Miller Questionable to Face Tennessee

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP