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Dan Yanofsky's MMA betting picks for UFC Fight Night, Ketlen Vieira vs. Yana Kunitskaya. Read his winning fighter predictions, analysis and betting tips.
The main event of UFC Fight Night 185 won’t be the only bout that could determine the fate of a division. With Amanda Nunes taking on challengers in the featherweight division, her UFC Bantamweight Title could use a new challenger.
Will the combination of Ketlen Vieira and Yana Kunitskaya prove they can step up to face the champion?
The third time will be the charm between the two, as this fight has not been able to come to fruition for various reasons. Thanks to stats and the growth of both fighters, we might just be able to determine who can walk out of Las Vegas the winner.
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UFC Fight Night: Fighter Backgrounds
A Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu specialist, Ketlen Vieira made her MMA debut in 2014. Fighting primarily in Brazi, Vieira would win three of her first six fights via submission. Vieira joined the UFC in 2016, beating Kelly Faszholz. She started her UFC career on a four-fight win streak, beating the likes of Ashlee Evans-Smith, Sara McMann, and Cat Zingano.
Vieira was on track to be a top contender in the bantamweight division, but a loss to Irene Aldana halted those plans. She then suffered visa issues that pulled her from fights, and would later be removed from cards, delaying her progress. Facing a last-minute opponent in Sijara Eubanks, Vieira won this past September. Now ranked sixth in the UFC's bantamweight rankings, Vieira is looking to move up just in time for Nunes to defend her title.
It has been an interesting run for Yana Kunitskaya. Competing in taekwondo, becoming a multiple-time champion, Kunitskaya turned professional in 2009. Starting her MMA career 8-1, Kunitskaya joined Invicta FC in 2016. She fought Tonya Evinger to a no-contest in her debut for the Invicta FC Bantamweight Title. Initially a win, it was overturned after an appeal by Evinger. While she would lose the rematch for the title, Kunitskaya would end up winning it against Raquel Pa'aluhi.
Kunitskaya would move to the featherweight division to challenge Cris Cyborg for the UFC Featherweight Title. In her UFC debut, Kunitskaya lost to Cyborg via TKO. She immediately moved back to bantamweight and has gone 3-1 in four fights. Her last bout was a unanimous decision win against Julija Stoliarenko back in August. The card she was on was also headlined by Derrick Lewis, who won his fight via TKO.
Kunitskaya is ranked seventh in the rankings and is looking to leapfrog over Vieira. All things considered, the division is wide open, so either fighter has a chance to make up some major ground with a win.
UFC Fight Night: Fight Outlook and Prediction
When it comes to who everyone believes has the advantage, the DraftKings Sportsbook has Vieira as the -278 favorite compared to +215 for Kunitskaya. While not as one-sided as Blaydes v. Lewis, it is still a pretty significant margin. Is it a fair one?
At first glance, it seems like Kunitskaya could have the ultimate advantage. She averages 4.49 Significant Strikes Landed per Minute compared to 3.10 for Vieira. Kunitskaya's strike accuracy is also strong at 54% compared to 36%. The one aspect of Vieira’s game that is on her side is the ground game. Vieira's takedown defense is around 92%, which could help her when it comes to the 53% takedown accuracy that Kunitskaya has.
Kunitskaya does have power on her side, finishing her opponents with a 53.8% KO rate (seven wins via knockout). On the other side, Vieira has landed 209 shots in three fights, with 129 of them significant.
While Kunitskaya thrives on her feet, Vieira’s ground game can’t be denied. The accuracy of her takedowns as well as her average submission attempts (.6) point to the conclusion that she may try and put Kunitskaya to sleep. With four wins via submission, Vieira has learned to adjust. It seemed to have worked wonders in the Eubanks fight.
As far as who could win the co-main event, it all depends on where the fight goes. A straight fight favors Kunitskaya unless she makes one small mistake. If Vieira can take her to the ground, however, the result might be elementary. That is, of course, unless Kunitskaya was able to improve her ground game and shock Vieira, her team, and those watching from home.
Based on every adjustment Vieira has made, the idea of her moving up in the division seems to be the most logical outcome.
Prediction: Vieira via submission (round two)
