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Dan Yanofsky's MMA betting picks for UFC Fight Night, Curtis Blaydes vs. Derrick Lewis. Read his winning fighter predictions, analysis and betting tips.
The next few weeks will feature contenders within the UFC’s heavyweight division. Two powerful stars will look to prove they are next in line for the throne.
Between Derrick Lewis and Curtis Blaydes, who will impress UFC brass the most?
By looking at the history and stats of both fighters, we may end up determining who will stand out in a stacked division.
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UFC Fight Night: Fighter Backgrounds
Curtis Blaydes made his MMA debut in 2014 following a successful NJCAA Wrestling career. He would win all five of his first professional fights via TKO, showcasing his power right away. In what has become his crutch, Blaydes lost to Francis Ngannou in his UFC debut. He would then rebound in a major way, going 6-0 in his next seven contests, with one no-contest due to a positive marijuana test. All the while he was never chosen to compete for the UFC Heavyweight Title.
On the cusp of earning a shot, Ngannou once again stood in Blaydes' way. Two years after his last loss to the now-heavyweight title contender, Blaydes would lose via TKO less than a minute into the first round. Once again, since then he has gone on a winning streak. Blaydes has won four in a row, two via knockout and two via unanimous decision. While some of his wrestling may appear “boring” to some, the fighter ranked second in the UFC's heavyweight rankings gets the job done.
“Razor” takes on an unpredictable brawler in Derrick Lewis. “The Black Beast” is an MMA mainstay, making his debut in 2010. A former Legacy FC Heavyweight Champion, Lewis joined the UFC in 2014. 15-5 with the promotion, Lewis has beaten the likes of Roy Nelson, Alexander Volkov, Travis Browne, Gabriel Gonzaga, and Shamil Abdurakhimov. The Volkov fight, in which he was losing until a last-minute knockout in the third round, propelled him to a UFC Heavyweight Title fight, where he’d lose to Daniel Cormier.
Currently, Lewis is on a three-fight win streak, last beating Aleksei Oleinik back in August. He brought something new to the table in a ground game and has found a way to elevate his already-established career.
Both will be fighting for a heavyweight title shot. A win should easily establish Blaydes as the next contender, as it is something he has been waiting patiently for. Can Lewis get back on top? Jon Jones, however, may end up getting in the way of both.
UFC Fight Night: Fight Outlook and Prediction
When it comes to who everyone believes has the advantage the DraftKings Sportsbook has Blaydes as a -435 favorite over Lewis' +320. Are the odds as stacked against Lewis as the line states?
On a tear as of late, Blaydes has an advantage in Significant Strikes Landed per Minute, landing about 3.55 compared to Lewis' 2.64. They are about even in strike accuracy; Blaydes at 53% and Lewis at 50%. Lewis may be able to absorb more shots (44% Significant Strikes Absorbed per Minute compared to 1.73), but will that be enough if Blaydes decides to take it to the ground?
Blaydes’ ground game compared to his opponent is out of this world. He has landed an average of 6.98 takedowns and has a 55% takedown accuracy rate. Lewis on the other hand has an average of 0.54 takedowns and a 26% takedown accuracy rate. Something on the side of Lewis, however, is his takedown defense, coming in at 52%. A big wall, can that be enough for Lewis to halt the ability of Blaydes?
In his last four fights, Blaydes has landed 143 significant strikes and is not specific when it comes to what part of the body to attack you from. In his last three fights, Lewis has landed 86 significant strikes and has focused more on the body when he delivers punishment.
As far as who could walk out of Las Vegas the winner, Blaydes is determined to get the job done, no matter what. He has gone on record saying he does not care how he wins, even if it upsets fans or Dana White. That means wrestling to the best of his ability to slow down Lewis. It worked for Cormier. Lewis, however, has been known to protect himself while on his back. Ready to pounce at any point, all Lewis has to do is take advance of one small mistake. He will also look to test the chin of Blaydes, something Ngannou has taken advantage of.
Will the fact that Blaydes tested positive for COVID-19 not long ago affect his stamina? It could vary by the person, as we have not seen any sign so far that Blaydes is not ready to go. Only time will tell, however, as that is an unpredictable factor.
If everything can go according to plan, Blaydes could end up tiring out Lewis, a formula that hasn’t failed him yet.
Prediction: Blaydes via unanimous decision
