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Dan Yanofsky's MMA betting picks for UFC Fight Night, Nikita Krylov vs. Magomed Ankalaev. Read his winning fighter predictions, analysis and betting tips.
Welcome back RotoBallers. Thanks for joining me again for another fight breakdown, where I give you my analysis and predictions.
A veteran and a newcomer will battle it out to determine who will advance in the UFC’s light heavyweight division. What kind of fight can we expect from Nikita Krylov and Magomed Ankalaev?
Both will be the co-main event of the latest UFC Fight Night to hit Las Vegas. By looking at the history and stats of both fighters, we may end up determining who can win a bout that has the potential to be Fight of the Night.
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UFC Fight Night: Fighter Backgrounds
The 28-year-old Krylov primarily fought in Ukraine to start his career. In his 17th pro fight, he joined the UFC, losing to Soa Palelei via TKO. Krylov would rebound with a win over Walt Harris but would fall victim to the Von Flue choke in his next fight against Ovince Saint Preux. After winning five in a row, Krylov lost to Misha Cirkunov. It was then revealed he didn't re-sign with the UFC in 2017, stating he wanted to fight closer to home and gain more experience overseas.
On his excursion, Krylov won four in a row, including the Fight Nights Global Light Heavyweight Title. He then renewed talks with the UFC, returning in 2018. He lost to Jan Blachowicz, beat OSP in a rematch, lost to Glover Teixeira, and beat Johnny Walker last May. That Walker fight in Brazil was one of the first major cards during the COVID-19 era. Krylov is currently ranked eighth in the UFC’s light heavyweight rankings.
The Ukrainian faces a tough opponent in Magomed Ankalaev. The 28-year-old from Dagestan is a world amateur and WCFA Light Heavyweight Champion. Making his debut in 2014, the Sambo master joined the UFC in 2018. He lost to Paul Craig via submission in his debut fight but hasn't looked back since.
Ankalaev is on a fight-five win streak, winning four of those bouts via some form of knockout. One of those bouts was against Ion Cutelaba, which was drenched in controversy. The referee in charge stopped the fight early in the first, but Cutelaba was still on his feet and stated he was playing possum. In a rematch this October, Ankalaev once again beat Cutelaba, this time without any questions surrounding the outcome.
Ankalaev is ranked eleventh in the UFC’s light heavyweight rankings.
UFC Fight Night: Fight Outlook and Prediction
When it comes to who everyone believes has the advantage, the DraftKings Sportsbook has Ankalaev as the -360 favorite and Krylov as the +275 underdog. In a battle to determine who moves up within the division, does this fight truly favor Ankalaev?
Krylov has a slight advantage in Significant Strikes Landed per Minute with about 4.54 compared to Ankalaev's 3.58. Both are almost dead even when it comes to Significant Striking Accuracy, with Krylov at 59% and Ankalaev at 56%. On the ground, Ankalaev has an 85% takedown defense (52% for Krylov), but Krylov lands about 1.40 (0.62 for Ankalaev) takedowns per 15 minutes.
Looking like a knockout artist, Ankalaev's bouts end quickly. Still, it must be said that he has landed 186 strikes in four fights, and 89 in the loss to Craig. 103 of the strikes have been significant and range from head to body attacks. Krylov has landed 283 strikes in his last four fights, with 123 of them significant.
The ground game of Krylov is what Ankalaev should be concerned about. He has landed 43 Significant Ground Head Strikes, 30 of them in his last fight. Krylov has also advanced eleven times. With fifteen wins via submission and ten via knockout for Krylov, Ankalaev could have his hands full if he doesn’t watch out. Then again, the Sambo experience of Ankalaev could come into play.
If all goes according to plan, these two will be hot right out of the gate. The veteran in Krylov is known for starting right away, but the same could be said for Ankalaev. Ankalaev is the fresher fighter, and that may play a major factor. Yes, Krylov is a submission specialist, but a few surprise knockouts have proven that anything is possible. Ankalaev will look to halt the momentum of Krylov by any means necessary.
By the of the night, we could witness a violent affair between two hungry fighters. With the future of the light heavyweight division unknown thanks to champion Blachowicz v. Israel Adesanya in March, both will need to make a statement. With a lot on the line, the power of the Dagestani punch could be the deciding factor.
One shot can make a difference.
Prediction: Ankalaev via TKO (round two)
