UFC 264 Predictions and Betting Picks: Stephen Thompson v. Gilbert Burns

July 9, 2021

Dan Yanofsky's MMA betting picks for UFC 264: Stephen Thompson v. Gilbert Burns. Read his winning fighter predictions, analysis and betting tips.

 Welcome back, RotoBallers. Thanks for joining me again for another fight breakdown, where I give you my analysis and predictions.

Before Conor McGregor and Dustin Poirier battle for supremacy, there will be a pivotal welterweight bout in the co-main event. Former title contenders Stephen Thompson and Gilbert Burns will look to put on a fight to remember. In a stacked welterweight division, can one of these two stand out?

By looking at the history and stats of both fighters, we may end up determining who can win a bout that has a lot on the line.

UFC 264: Fighter Backgrounds

Trained by MMA legend Georges St-Pierre, Thompson made his MMA debut in 2010. Joining the UFC in 2012, "Wonderboy" won his first fight but lost his second to Matt Brown. From there, he won seven in a row, including wins over Robert Whittaker, Johny Hendricks, and Rory MacDonald.

The MacDonald win propelled him to a title shot against then-Welterweight Champion Tyron Woodley. Inside Madison Square Garden at UFC 205, Thompson and Woodley put on a true Fight of the Year contender, resulting in a draw. The same energy from that fight wasn't brought in the rematch, as Thompson lost via majority decision. Since then he has gone 3-3 in six fights.

After losing to Anthony Pettis in 2019, Thompson has gone on a two-fight win streak. He has beaten both Vicente Luque and Geoff Neal via decision. Ranked fourth in the division, the 38-year-old wants another shot at the top.

Ranked second in the rankings, Burns is a former Jiu-Jitsu champion. Making his MMA debut in 2012, Burns was 3-0 in the UFC before losing to Rashid Magomedov. Burns was 8-3 in the UFC as a lightweight before moving back to welterweight, the first time was in that division since 2014. He would win four in a row, including a win against former champion Tyron Woodley.

Known as a grappler and jabber, Burns was outclassed in the latter department at UFC 258 against champion Kamaru Usman. He would lose via TKO. Since then, “Durinho” has been looking for his way back to Usman.

UFC 264: Fight Outlook and Prediction

When it comes to who everyone believes has the advantage, the DraftKings Sportsbook has Thompson as the -162 favorite while Burns is the +130 underdog. This fight has a chance to be a true Fight of the Night contender. Who truly has the edge?

Thompson's long frame could work towards his advantage. He lands about 4.24 significant strikes per minute, while Burns lands about 3.22. Both are about even in strike accuracy (Burns at 45% and Thompson at 43%), while Thompson (58%) has a slight edge over Burns (54%) in strike defense.

Thompson has landed over 100 strikes in two straight fights, while Burns kept it short against Woodley and couldn't muster anything against Usman.

It appears that Thompson, at least recently, has an edge on the feet. On the floor, however, is where Burns can strike at any point.

Burns has averaged 2.08 takedowns landed and has a takedown accuracy of 35%. The latter favors Thompson (45%) but he lands .32 takedowns per 15 minutes. Known for making his opponents suffer, Burns will still have to be wary of Thompson’s takedown defense (78%), as we saw a masterful performance against Woodley all those years ago.

As discussed before, a statement needs to be made by either man. Thompson’s leg kicks are deadly, but he may not have the same reach as Usman had. Burns needs to work hard when it comes to taking Thompson down, but will he tire himself out doing so? On a roll, Thompson’s momentum could end up continuing if he pulls out all the stops.

Prediction: Thompson via unanimous decision