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Dan Yanofsky's MMA betting picks for UFC 264: Conor McGregor v. Dustin Poirier III. Read his winning fighter predictions, analysis and betting tips.
Welcome back, RotoBallers. Thanks for joining me again for another fight breakdown, where I give you my analysis and predictions.
A trilogy fight years in the making will be taking place at UFC 264 this Saturday, July 10. Dustin Poirier, on a straight path to a title shot, will look to avoid the rebirth of Conor McGregor inside the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. Teasing the old Conor with his trash-talking, will the real “Notorious” one show up, or will “The Diamond” shine bright once again?
By looking at the history and stats of both fighters, we may end up determining who can win a bout that has a lot on the line.
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Once again, Conor McGregor is at the center of everything in the universe. That is, of course, if he gets an impressive win.
McGregor came into the UFC with a lot of fanfare, picking up impressive wins while with Cage Warriors. He started his UFC career in 2013 and managed to take home wins against Max Holloway, Chad Mendes, Dennis Silver, and Poirier (back in 2014). He reached international superstar level when he took out Jose Aldo in 13 seconds at UFC 194 to win the UFC Featherweight Title. McGregor then split a series against Nate Diaz and would beat Eddie Alvarez for the UFC Lightweight Title, all in 2016.
From there came a series of wild events. McGregor went on to box Floyd Mayweather, not defending either of the titles he won. Along with going through legal issues, McGregor came back in 2018 and was embarrassed by Khabib Nurmagomedov. He would come back again in 2020 and easily defeat a now-known unmotivated Donald Cerrone. Then, the rematch with Poirier was on.
Poirier also beat Holloway early on in his career. On a three-fight win streak heading into the first McGregor fight, Poirier would lose via TKO. Poirier went 10-2 ,with one no-contest, during the time between the first and second fight.
Beating Dan Hooker in a classic back in June 2020, Poirier would face McGregor at UFC 257. He picked McGregor apart, using calf kicks to his advantage. The fight was over before it began, as Poirier would land fast shots that crumbled McGregor down to the ground. Poirier then chose to face McGregor again instead of fighting for the then-vacant UFC Lightweight Title.
Dana White has stated that the winner of this fight would face new champion Charles Oliveira for the title.
UFC 264: Fight Outlook and Prediction
When it comes to who everyone believes has the advantage, the DraftKings Sportsbook has Poirier as the -134 favorite, with McGregor as the +105 underdog. Each day the odds get closer and closer. Before the second fight, McGregor was the -305 favorite compared to Poirier at +250. Is Poirier the rightful betting favorite?
By taking a quick glance, it is anyone’s ballgame. McGregor lands around 5.32 significant strikes per minute, while Poirier lands 5.59. Poirier and McGregor both have a 54% strike defense and are about even in strike accuracy (50% for Poirier and 49% for McGregor). Poirier landed 48 strikes against McGregor's 29 strikes last time out. While somewhat even on the ground, McGregor has been much more focused on boxing.
Going into it further, what kind of McGregor will we see? Is he unprepared like he was against Khabib, or did he go old school in order to prove he is back? McGregor said he was more focused in a potential fight against Manny Pacquiao heading into the rematch. Poirier’s leg kick percentage (true MMA) was at 86%. McGregor did not say if he changed his training to avoid the kicks. That could just be him teasing us, or it could be false confidence.
The former double champion has a .70 takedown advantage, while Poirier has a 1.47 range. Poirier goes for the submission, attempting 1.3 submissions per 15 minutes compared to zero for McGregor. Even if Poirier goes for the takedown, however, he must be wary of McGregor’s rapid shots.
Poirier’s power will be key here, but he cannot be a victim to McGregor’s mind games. It appears that the drama from the first fight will not be from both sides if the pre-fight press conference is any indication. If Poirier can withstand everything, including a cool, calm, and collected McGregor, he should be the one to get his hand raised once again.
