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Starting pitchers to add and stream in Week 25 of the 2021 fantasy baseball season. Michael Grennell analyzes the top SP streamers to pick up off waivers.
There's only a couple more weeks left in the season. So only a few more opportunities left for two-start streamers.
As we near the end of the line, we'll recap the past two weeks. Chris Flexen was the winning pick in Week 23, but that's not saying much as he posted a 3.86 ERA and 1.371 WHIP with eight strikeouts over 11 2/3 innings of work. As for Week 24, Steven Matz is the frontrunner after allowing one run on seven hits while striking out six over six innings against the Yankees to earn the win.
We've got some interesting matchups this week. Let's dive in.
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Week 25 Streamers — Under 50% Rostered
Jake Odorizzi, HOU - 40% rostered
Probable Opponents: @ TEX, vs ARI
Odorizzi has had a rather solid bounce-back season in 2021 after an injury-shortened season last year. Over 94 2/3 innings of work this year, Odorizzi has posted a 4.28 ERA, 1.215 WHIP and 21.4 percent strikeout rate while going 6-7 for Houston. He's had a particularly nice stretch on the mound over his last six starts, where he's gone 2-1 with a 2.90 ERA, 1.226 WHIP and 21.4 percent strikeout rate over 31 innings.
He'll open up the week on the road, which could spell trouble for him as he's been worse on the road (4.82 ERA, 1.223 WHIP) than at home (3.61 ERA, 1.205 WHIP). On top of that he'll be facing a hot-hitting Rangers squad that is averaging 5.1 runs per game over their last 10 games and is hitting better both against right-handed pitching this year (.228/.295/.382) and at home (.237/.301/.394).
While that Texas matchup could be a tough one for Odorizzi, his outing against Arizona looks to be a very nice start for him. For starters, the Diamondbacks are slashing .212/.279/.344 and averaging 3.7 runs per game over their last 10 games. They are also hitting worse against right-handed pitching (.229/.303/.366, 24.6 K%) than against left-handers (.251/.328/.420, 21.5 K%), and they are hitting significantly worse on the road (.220/.297/.362) than at home (.251/.323/.400).
It's a one good start, one bad start scenario this week for Odorizzi. That Texas matchup could end in disaster, but the Arizona outing looks to be potential fantasy gold. If he can put up similar numbers this week to what he's done this season against the Rangers (3.29 ERA, 1.024 WHIP, 25 K% in 13 2/3 innings), that plus his Arizona start makes Odorizzi a great two-start streamer in Week 25.
Rich Hill, NYM - 39% rostered
Probable Opponents: vs STL, vs PHI
Hill has done a solid job of proving that age means nothing this year, as the 41-year-old southpaw has gone 6-6 with a 3.82 ERA, 1.165 WHIP and 22.2 percent strikeout rate over 139 innings with the Rays and Mets. He's gone 0-2 over his last four starts, but don't let that fool you — he's posted a 2.45 ERA and 0.955 WHIP over 22 innings with a 25 percent strikeout rate. Plus he's posted back-to-back quality starts in his last two outings.
He'll stay at home for both matchups this week, and he'll kick things off with a Cardinals squad that is averaging 4.1 runs per game while slashing .245/.304/.437 over his last 10 games. This outing could prove to be a tough one for Hill, because while the Cardinals are hitting slightly worse on the road (.235/.309/.417) than at home (.244/.314/.378), they are hitting far better against left-handed pitchers this year (.254/.327/.453) than against right-handers (.236/.307/.383).
The matchup with the Phillies will prove to be a bit of a conundrum for managers. On one hand, Philadelphia is slashing .268/.345/.462 and averaging 5.7 runs per game over their last 10 games. On the other hand, a lot of that performance was boosted by two 12-run outbursts over that span. The Phillies are putting up nearly identical numbers on the road and at home, and they are hitting slightly better against left-handed pitching (.249/.327/.415) than against right-handers (.235/.313/.406).
This week managers will have to place their faith mostly on Hill's recent success, as there aren't a whole lot of positive signs on paper. This is a case where you've got to trust the hot hand and hope for the best. Even if Hill doesn't do quite as well as he has over his last few outings, he should still provide enough value to not hurt a team in Week 25.
Week 25 Streamers — Under 25% Rostered
Joe Ryan, MIN - 12% rostered
Probable Opponents: vs CLE, @ TOR
I mean, come on this one has to be a no-brainer. After taking a perfect game bid into the seventh inning in his last start, of course Ryan was going to show up in this week's column. Over his first two career starts now, Ryan is 1-1 with a 2.25 ERA, 0.417 WHIP and 22 percent strikeout rate over 12 innings of work. After just missing out on the perfect game in his last matchup, he'll face off against the Indians once again to open Week 25. Cleveland is slashing .247/.311/.398 over their last 10 games, and they're hitting worse on the road (.233/.297/.400) than at home (.243/.312/.419). He'll have a much tougher matchup when he faces Toronto, as they are slashing .272/.367/.545 and averaging 6.4 runs per game over their last 10 games. They're also hitting much better against right-handed pitchers (.260/.324/.455) and at home (.272/.337/.484) this year — which are both marks against Ryan.
We're dealing with a rookie pitcher right now who's two starts into his major league career. Obviously it's hard to predict exactly how well he'll do in starts three and four, and that Toronto outing looks to be a potential disaster waiting to happen. But all that being said, Ryan is an interesting option to consider in deeper formats this week.
A.J. Alexy, TEX - 11% rostered
Probable Opponents: vs HOU, vs CHW
Another rookie pitcher that's two starts into his career, Alexy has gone 2-0 and allowed just two hits and five walks with 11 strikeouts over 11 innings of work. He'll start off the week against Houston, and while they're averaging just 3.8 runs per game over their last 10 games, they're also slashing .257/.317/.429 in that same span. Alexy will get a slight boost in this matchup, as the Astros are hitting worse against right-handers (.261/.332/.434) and they're also hitting slightly worse on the road (.268/.334/.437). The outing against the White Sox will be a rough one, as Chicago is on fire over their last 10 games where they're slashing .283/.365/.452 and averaging 5.9 runs per game. Like the Astros, the White Sox are also hitting worse against right-handers (.252/.334/.414) and when on the road (.251/.323/.404).
That Chicago outing will be the toughest one of the week for Alexy, but it looks like there could be some value there based on the home-road and lefty-righty splits. Like with Ryan, it's hard to predict exactly how this unproven rookie will perform, but there's enough there to make him an interesting option in deeper formats this week.
John Gant, MIN - 5% rostered
Probable Opponents: @ NYY, @ TOR
Gant is a bit of a stretch this week, but he's been looking better over his last two starts where he's allowed two runs on six hits and four walks while striking out 12 over 10 innings of work. He'll try to keep things rolling on Monday, when he faces off against a slumping Yankees squad that is slashing .210/.285/.314 and averaging 3.4 runs per game over their last 10 games. He should benefit from New York's splits, as the Yankees are hitting worse at home this year (.231/.325/.389) and they're also hitting worse against right-handers (.229/.316/.398). And then as for his matchup with Toronto, Gant will be in the same situation as Ryan in terms of the team's splits. So basically, a potentially bad outing for Gant.
Managers who are willing to gamble on the outcome of that Blue Jays matchup should strongly consider Gant in deeper formats this week. That outing with the Yankees should end up providing some solid fantasy value for managers, and if he can get through Toronto relatively unscathed, he could be a nice play this week.
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