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Starting pitchers to add and stream in Week 21 of the 2021 fantasy baseball season. Michael Grennell analyzes the top SP streamers to pick up off waivers.
TIM FREAKING ANDERSON. That's all that needs to be said about the Field of Dreams Game. Man, what an ending!
That matchup sure lived up to the hype, but how did the pitchers on the last two columns hold up? Going back to Week 19, Chris Flexen was the clear winner from that column, going 1-0 with a 3.86 ERA, 1.542 WHIP and 13 strikeouts. And now in Week 20, J.A. Happ is the frontrunner after taking a no-hit bid into the sixth inning and finishing with one run allowed on one hit and two walks with five strikeouts over six innings to earn his sixth win of the season.
So as I ride out the high of this stalk-off victory, let's go ahead and dive into this week's two-start streamers.
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Week 21 Streamers — Under 50% Rostered
Cal Quantrill, CLE - 59% rostered
Probable Opponents: @ MIN, vs LAA
Alright I'm going over the cutoff threshold here with Quantrill, but he's close enough to the 50 percent rostered mark and has solid enough matchups that he's still worth looking at in this week's column. Quantrill has had a nice year so far, going 3-2 with a 3.13 ERA, 1.229 WHIP and 18.5 percent strikeout rate over 97 2/3 innings of work. But over his last seven starts he's been particularly lights out, going 3-0 with a 1.71 ERA, 1.048 WHIP and 20.6 percent strikeout rate.
He'll open up the week going against a struggling Minnesota squad that is slashing .214/.296/.377 while averaging 3.8 runs per game over their last 10 games. The Twins are hitting slightly worse this year at home (.238/.316/.428) than on the road (.246/.315/.424), and they are also hitting slightly worse against right-handed pitching (.240/.317/.427) than they are against lefties (.247/.313/.423). The one slight disadvantage Quantrill will have is that he has pitched worse on the road (3.60 ERA, 1.350 WHIP) than at home (2.81 ERA, 1.145 WHIP) this year, however his numbers on the road are still very solid and shouldn't scare managers off from this outing.
Then he'll close out the week against another struggling offense in the Angels. Over their last 10 games, Los Angeles is slashing .217/.289/.324 and averaging 3.6 runs per game. They're putting up nearly identical numbers against both right-handers and left-handers, but Quantrill should be able to take advantage of the fact that the Angels are hitting significantly worse on the road (.239/.297/.390) than at home (.264/.328/.455). And as mentioned before, Quantrill is pitching better in Cleveland, making this a nice matchup for him.
This is a nice pair of matchups against a couple of struggling offenses for Quantrill. And given how well he's pitched recently, this should be an excellent week to use him as a two-start streamer.
Merrill Kelly, ARI - 32% rostered
Probable Opponents: vs PHI, @ COL
There have been quite a few ups and downs for Kelly this year, as evidenced by his current 7-9 record. 4.30 ERA and 1.237 WHIP over 142 1/3 innings of work. But right now he's been pitching well over his last nine starts, going 4-2 with a 3.16 ERA, 1.105 WHIP and 17.7 percent strikeout rate across 57 innings pitched. He struggled a bit in his latest outing where he allowed five runs over five innings against the Giants, but before that appearance he had posted three consecutive quality starts against the Cubs, Dodgers and Giants.
First off he'll face the Phillies, as they have been doing well at the plate recently by slashing .272/.330/.488 and averaging 5.7 runs per game over their last 10 games. There won't be much help for Kelly from Philadelphia's home-road splits as they are nearly identical, however the Phillies are hitting significantly worse against right-handed pitching (.236/.312/.399) than against left-handers (.255/.334/.424). And while the Phillies are putting up similar numbers regardless of where they play, Kelly has pitched significantly better at home (3.38 ERA, 1.125 WHIP) than on the road (5.40 ERA, 1.369 WHIP).
That being said, he'll face some difficulty in his second outing of the week then when he pitches on the road against Colorado. The Rockies are red-hot at the plate over their last 10 games, slashing .296/.371/.550 and averaging 6.2 runs per game, and unsurprisingly they are hitting better at home (.285/.347/.486) than on the road (.209/.284/.324). Kelly fared poorly against the Rockies when he pitched at Coors Field back in April, where he allowed seven runs — six earned — over six innings of work. But in his last two starts (albeit both at home) Kelly has limited Colorado to four runs over 11 innings while striking out seven. And on top of that, he should see a slight boost in potential value as the Rockies are hitting significantly worse against right-handed pitchers (.243/.310/.397, 22.9 K%) than against lefties (.263/.333/.435, 21.1 K%).
This is a tough week for Kelly, as he'll be going up against a couple of hot offenses in the Phillies and Rockies. But despite that, there's enough there in the matchups plus in his recent performances to suggest that he can put up solid numbers in Week 21.
Week 21 Streamers — Under 25% Rostered
Ryan Weathers, SDP - 16% rostered
Probable Opponents: @ COL, vs PHI
Well this is a first for the column this year. I'm writing up two pitchers who are going into identical matchups in the same week. Really the only difference between Weathers and Kelly this week is in the fact that Weathers is a left-handed pitcher, so he won't have the same benefits that Kelly will have from the Phillies and Rockies' righty-lefty splits. Looking at the Colorado matchup in particular, Weathers did struggle in his last outing against the Rockies by allowing eight runs over four innings of work. But in his previous two outings against the Rockies, he had limited them to just one run over five innings.
Really for the most part you can look at what I wrote about Kelly and most of it applies to Weathers as well in Week 21. I like Kelly as the better option between the two of them, but Weathers can still be a solid enough play in deeper formats if Kelly is already rostered.
Antonio Senzatela, COL - 3% rostered
Probable Opponents: vs SDP, vs ARI
Senzatela missed some time recently after testing positive for COVID-19, but he has started to show small improvements from his season line over his last five outings, where he has posted a 4.40 ERA, 1.500 WHIP and 18.8 percent strikeout rate. His overall numbers aren't great, but the main reason I'm picking him in Week 21 is both of his starts are at home, as he's pitched far better at Coors Field (4.04 ERA, 1.253 WHIP) than on the road (5.80 ERA, 1.711 WHIP). The first outing with San Diego will be tough, but he'll have a little upside in the fact that the Padres are hitting slightly worse on the road (.246/.319/.413) and are hitting slightly worse against right-handed pitching (.247/.327/.416). The second start should be a great matchup for him, as the Diamondbacks are hitting significantly worse on the road (.216/.294/.353) as well as against right-handed pitchers (.228/.304/.360).
He'll really be a deeper league play this week, and that matchup with the Padres could be a rough one for his value. But if he can put up a decent outing against San Diego, he'll close out the week with a great matchup against Arizona.
Griffin Jax, MIN - 2% rostered
Probable Opponents: vs CLE, @ NYY
Don't pay too much attention to Jax's current 5.45 ERA and 1.211 WHIP. After getting off to a rough start this year out of the bullpen followed by a disastrous first start, Jax has been pitching very well over his last four starts, going 2-0 with a 2.66 ERA, 0.787 WHIP and 23.1 percent strikeout rate over 20 1/3 innings of work. He'll open up the week against Cleveland, as they have averaged 3.7 runs per game while slashing .251/.306/.382 over their last 10 games. It will be his first time facing them since joining the rotation, and he'll be helped by the fact that they have been hitting worse on the road (.227/.290/.388) than at home (.237/.307/.410). He'll then close out the week in New York, facing a red-hot Yankees squad that is slashing .272/.351/.439 while averaging 6.1 runs per game over their last 10 games. Jax should have a decent matchup with the Yankees though, as they are both hitting worse against right-handed pitching (.228/.318/.379) and hitting worse at home (.233/.328/.396).
Jax is a pitcher on the rise, and likely will be the best guy to choose from in the under-25 percent rostered category this week. Managers should pick him up in most formats to use him as a streamer this week, and if he puts up the results I expect out of him, go ahead and keep him rostered full time as he should be a good pitcher to have down the stretch into the playoffs.
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