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Michael Grennell analyzes under-the-radar starting pitchers (SP) making two starts in Week 13 as possible streamers and waiver wire adds or targets for fantasy baseball.
This is an interesting week for two-start streamers. In previous weeks there have tended to be a bunch of serviceable to decent options somewhere in the five to 10 percent ownership range, but this week that's really not the case. But never fear, we've still got five streamers to take a look at for Week 13.
Looking back at Week 11's list, John Means and Anibal Sanchez both had solid weeks, but Mike Leake was the best option to go with as he went 1-0 with two quality starts, 13 strikeouts and a 3.21 ERA. As for Week 12, Zach Plesac, Mike Fiers and Tommy Milone are all off to good starts after their first outing of the week.
And now it's time to look at who you should grab for Week 13.
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Week 13 Streamers - Under 50% Owned
Marco Gonzales, SEA - 35% owned
Probable opponents: @ MIL, @ HOU
Gonzales had a pair of rough starts at the end of May and beginning of June, but he's turned things around since then with three wins in three starts and a 2.33 ERA. Along with struggling in ERA in May, Gonzales struggled with his strikeouts that month as he averaged just three per start. He's reached five strikeouts in two of his last three starts, but owners shouldn't expect too much more than that this week.
He'll be on the road for both starts this week, which should be a boost to his value as he has pitched better on the road (4-2, 2.77 ERA, 1.212 WHIP) than at home (4-4, 6.00 ERA, 1.521 WHIP). Gonzales will start off the week against the Brewers, who are averaging 4.3 runs and 8.9 strikeouts over their last 10 games while hitting .231. Also boosting Gonzales' value is the Brewers struggles against lefty starters, as their team average is 15 points lower against left-handed starters than right-handed starters, and their OPS is 50 points lower as well. After Milwaukee, Gonzales will take on the Astros, who are averaging 5.2 runs and 8.5 strikeouts over their last 10 games while hitting .251. Their runs average is slightly inflated though thanks to a 15-run outburst against Toronto and a 10-run performance against Milwaukee. Since their 15-2 win against Toronto, the Astros are averaging just 3.3 runs over their last six games.
Gonzales won't put up high strikeout numbers this week, but he should still provide pretty good value. Owners in quality starts leagues should take a look at him as well, as he could put up a pair of quality starts this week after recording two in his last three outings.
Trevor Williams, PIT - 34% owned
Probable opponents: @ HOU, @ MIL
In his return from the injured list, Williams looked a little rusty against the Tigers — allowing seven runs on nine hits over five innings. Despite that, Williams posted his fifth consecutive start with at least five strikeouts and one or fewer walks. This week should be a bounce back week for Williams, as he had been one of the more consistent pitchers in baseball prior to his injury.
Coincidentally, Williams will be facing both the Astros and Brewers on the road this week. Another coincidence is that like Gonzales, Williams has pitched better on the road (2-0, 2.83 ERA, 1.143 WHIP) than on the road (0-1, 6.00 ERA, 1.250 WHIP). Against the Astros, Williams will get a boost that Gonzales won't, as Houston has a team average 14 points worse against right-handed starters than left-handers, and their OPS is also 39 points lower against right-handers. While the Brewers are hitting better against right-handed pitching, Williams has shown a high level of success against Milwaukee. Last season, Williams went 3-0 against the Brewers with a 0.00 ERA and 21 strikeouts over 19 innings.
Williams might be a bit of a risky play this week as he comes back from injury, but that start against Milwaukee looks to have the potential to be a big fantasy day for owners. Try to snag Williams while he's still available.
Week 13 Streamers - Under 25% Owned
Chris Bassitt, OAK - 28% owned
Probable opponents: @ STL, @ LAA
OK yeah I'm cheating a little bit here. Like I said, there weren't a whole lot of decent options I like this week in the under 25 percent range, and I figured 28 percent is close enough. Anyway, Bassitt's ERA has been a little inconsistent year, but he's been racking up the strikeouts with at least six strikeouts in seven of his 11 starts this year. Bassitt will kick things off this week against the Cardinals, who are averaging 4.5 runs and 9.0 strikeouts over their last 10 games while hitting .233. Then he'll take on the hot-hitting Angels, who are averaging 5.8 runs and 7.9 strikeouts over their last 10 games. In his last start against the Angels, Bassitt earned the win but allowed five runs over five innings with three strikeouts.
Bassitt should have a good outing against St. Louis, but that start against the Angels could be dicey. But if you're looking for a high-strikeout potential this week and are willing to take the risk on your ERA, Bassitt is the guy to look at for Week 13.
Brad Keller, KCR - 20% owned
Probable opponents: @ CLE, @ TOR
Keller's most recent start is definitely one to forget, as he allowed seven runs over four innings against the Mariners. But before that outing, he had been riding a bit of a hot streak. Over his previous five starts, Keller had posted a 2.83 ERA with 21 strikeouts and four quality starts. Starting off Week 13, Keller will face the Indians for the second time this season. In his first outing against them, he posted a season-high 10 strikeouts over 6 2/3 innings while allowing just one run. After Cleveland, Keller will head to Toronto where he will face an offense averaging 5.7 runs over their last 10 games. While that may seem like cause to avoid Keller, Keller will actually get a slight boost as the Blue Jays are hitting .217 against right-handed starters and they are hitting .209 in home games.
This might be the high-risk, high-reward pick on this week's list. He probably won't be in line for wins this week thanks to the anemic Royals offense, but he should more than make up for that in other categories. Keller is probably the best guy to grab in the "Under 25%" section this week.
Adam Plutko, CLE - 5% owned
Probable opponents: vs KCR, @ BAL
Despite lasting a season-low 4 1/3 innings in his last start against the Rangers, Plutko has been pitching pretty well this season. He's recorded a quality start in three of his five outings this season, and over his last three starts he has posted a 3.31 ERA while averaging five strikeouts. Plutko will face a couple of low-scoring offenses this week, as the Royals are averaging 4.5 runs and the Orioles are averaging 3.2 runs over their last 10 games. While this week will be the first time he faces the Royals, Plutko faced the Orioles in his first start of the season — allowing one run over six innings while striking out four.
Plutko is one of the better options this week who is available in nearly every league. Owners in quality starts leagues should give him some serious consideration, as Plutko could very well end up with a pair of quality starts this week.
