RADIO
Michael Grennell analyzes under-the-radar starting pitchers (SP) making two starts in Week 24 as possible streamers and waiver wire adds or targets for fantasy baseball.
Everyone's excited for football season. Except for me. As a Bears fan, this year has gotten off to a rough start. But enough about football. You're here to see who to add for Week 24.
Anthony DeSclafani started off Week 22 strong with eight strikeouts over seven scoreless innings against Miami, but his second outing got pushed back into Week 23. Because of that, the best two-start pitcher out of the Week 22 column ended up being Steven Brault, who was 1-0 with six strikeouts and a 3.18 ERA over 11 1/3 innings. As for the frontrunner in Week 23, we saw strong performances from Dylan Cease who had 11 strikeouts while allowing four runs in 6 2/3 innings, and Tanner Roark who had six strikeouts over 6 2/3 scoreless innings. But the surprise from Week 23 has to be my lottery pick, Drew Smyly. I thought he could do well in his matchups, but he did even better than I expected as he allowed one run in 5 1/3 innings while striking out eight in his first start of the week.
There's quite a few risky picks this week, but there's plenty of value to be found in this column. Let's dive in.
Week 24 Streamers - Under 50% Owned
Zac Gallen, ARI - 57% owned
Probable opponents: @ NYM, vs CIN
I know he's above the threshold for this column, but this will probably be the last time this year Gallen is this close to 50 percent ownership. Since coming over to Arizona at the trade deadline, Gallen has posted a 2.25 EA across six starts and he has recorded at least six strikeouts in all but one of those outings. And in his last start, he took a no-hitter into the seventh inning and ended the night allowing one hit and one walk with eight strikeouts over seven scoreless innings.
He'll open up this week against the Mets, who are averaging 5.7 runs and 7.0 strikeouts over their last 10 games while hitting .275. Gallen had a solid outing earlier this year against the Mets when he allowed two runs over five innings while striking out five, and he will also benefit from New York's home-road splits as they are hitting slightly worse at home (.249 average, .758 OPS) than on the road (.265, .770). For his second start, Gallen will return to Arizona to take on the struggling Cincinnati Reds who are averaging 3.6 runs and 10.2 strikeouts while hitting .195 over their last 10 games. Gallen will also get an added bonus from the Reds' splits, as they are hitting worse against right-handed starters (.242) than lefties (.258) and they are hitting worse on the road (.239) than at home (.253).
The Mets matchup will be Gallen's toughest outing of the week, but he looks primed for a great fantasy week. Gallen has been nothing short of dominant, and owners who pick him up as a streaming option this week should consider hanging onto him for the rest of the season.
Jordan Lyles, MIL - 36% owned
Probable opponents: @ MIA, @ STL
Prior to being traded to the Brewers, Lyles was 5-7 with a 5.36 ERA over 17 starts for Pittsburgh. Since the trade, Lyles has pitched significantly better as he has posted a 5-1 record with a 2.56 ERA over seven starts and in his last three starts, Lyles is 3-0 with a 1.53 ERA and 16 strikeouts over 17 2/3 innings.
Lyles will get an easy start to the week when he travels to Miami to take on the Marlins. Miami is averaging 3.5 runs and 10.4 strikeouts while hitting .209 over their last 10 games, and they are hitting worse against right-handed starters (.235, .657 OPS) than against lefties (.250, .691). After starting off the weak with a soft matchup, Lyles will have a tougher time in his second start when he faces off against the Cardinals. St. Louis is averaging 5.6 runs and 7.2 strikeouts over their last 10 games, and in their last matchup against Lyles they lit him up for eight runs — five earned — over 1 2/3 innings in his last start with the Pirates. That being said, Lyles did pitch well in his first start against St. Louis this season, allowing one run over six innings while striking out six.
It's a "one good start, one bad start" scenario for Lyles in Week 24. The Miami start should be a great fantasy day for Lyles, and based on his recent track record it seems that he could pitch well enough against the Cardinals. If Gallen is already owned in your league, Lyles has to be the next pitcher you target.
Week 24 Streamers - Under 25% Owned
Ivan Nova, CHW - 27% owned
Probable opponents: vs KCR, @ CLE
Nova has struggled in his last two outings, but prior to that he had been riding a streak of solid fantasy outings. During that streak, Nova had posted a 0.94 ERA while going 5-1 across seven starts — including two complete games. He'll start off the week against Kansas City, as they've heated up over their last 10 games by averaging 5.4 runs and 7.8 strikeouts per game. While that seems like cause to avoid Nova, the Royals are hitting worse against right-handed starters (.245, .705 OPS) than lefties (.247, .717) and they're hitting worse on the road (.235, .701) than at home (.255, .715). In his second start, Nova will have a rematch with Cleveland after getting lit up for six runs over 4 1/3 innings in his last outing. Despite that rough outing, the potential is there for Nova to have a solid start as Cleveland is averaging 4.4 runs and 9.8 strikeouts while hitting .236 over their last 10 games.
Starting Nova this week is definitely a risky pickup, but the pieces seem to be in place for him to have a solid bounce-back week. Owners should take a look at the other pitchers in this column first, but if they've been added then Nova should be a solid fall-back plan.
Merrill Kelly, ARI - 17% owned
Probable opponents: @ NYM, vs CIN
Another Arizona pitcher makes this week's column as Kelly enters Week 24 coming off his best start in over a month as he tossed seven scoreless innings with nine strikeouts against the Padres. Kelly has been very inconsistent throughout this season, but he has shown some signs of improvement over his last six starts, as he has recorded four starts allowing three or fewer runs and has averaged over five strikeouts per game.
Kelly will benefit from the same righty-lefty and home-road splits against the Mets and Reds that Gallen will have this week. He's a risky play because of his inconsistency, but if you like the fantasy matchups against New York and Cincinnati and Gallen is already owned, Kelly should be a decent value this week.
Logan Webb, SFG - 15% owned
Probable opponents: vs PIT, vs MIA
Webb was tagged for eight runs — seven earned — over just 2 2/3 innings his last time out against St. Louis. Before then however, Webb had pitched well in his first three career starts as he posted a 3.52 ERA with 16 strikeouts over 15 1/3 innings. He'll try to get back on track against Pittsburgh in his first start of the week, but it will be an uphill battle as the Pirates are averaging 6.7 runs and 7.3 strikeouts while hitting .313 over their last 10 games. If Webb can post an average outing against the Pirates, owners will be rewarded with a great outing against Miami. He'll get the same lefty-righty splits benefit that Lyles will have in his start against the Marlins, plus Webb will get the added bonus of Miami's struggles hitting on the road (.234, .657) versus at home (.244, .675).
Much like Lyles, Webb has one good start and one bad start this week. Owners should definitely try to target Lyles first over Webb, but if he gets picked up before you can add him, Webb should be a decent fill-in.
